Serious concern’ as South Africa detects new coronavirus variant--Omicron

[chessman]

27 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Banning flights and closing borders.  Probably more over-reaction to come!

I’m genuinely surprised that you consider this an over-reaction. The banning of flights and closing of borders has been extremely limited. The majority of countries have targeted specific locations while they work out the severity of the newly identified strain. This seems like common sense to me. There already seems some evidence that this strain is more transimissable and more resistant to vaccines. If this is confirmed and it is also found to cause more severe covid then this is going to be a huge problem.

[Virt]

We will see those mutations again and again, so it's hard to tell which is the correct way to act.

 

Here in Denmark they just closed a school after they found an unknown variant.

Hopefully it's just another of the many Delta sub variants and not some new kid on the block.

[GrandPapillon]

closing the borders is a bit too late, it's already there, so it's an over-reaction

 

should have kept borders closed over the summer when cases were decreasing,

 

but no, it was open bar ????

 

[brewsterbudgen]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

I’m genuinely surprised that you consider this an over-reaction. The banning of flights and closing of borders has been extremely limited. The majority of countries have targeted specific locations while they work out the severity of the newly identified strain. This seems like common sense to me. There already seems some evidence that this strain is more transimissable and more resistant to vaccines. If this is confirmed and it is also found to cause more severe covid then this is going to be a huge problem.

I don't there has been much common sense shown by any government over the course of the pandemic.

[bluehippie]

Maybe not so serious.

https://qz.com/2095354/what-are-the-symptoms-of-the-omicron-variant/

[partington]

1 hour ago, bluehippie said:

Maybe not so serious.

https://qz.com/2095354/what-are-the-symptoms-of-the-omicron-variant/

This is utterly silly. The doctor quoted has treated only a few patients, all of whom were apparently children or young adults.  The fact they had mild symptoms is meaningless statistically.

 

There simply have not been enough tracked patients with this variant as yet to make any sort of valid scientific conclusion about how dangerous it is compared to previous variants.

 

The original SARS-Cov-2  and it's subsequent variants are estimated to have killed 5 million people so far.

It is also estimated that 30% of people infected with these variants not only don't die, but have no symptoms.

 

Therefore you can tell literally nothing about the seriousness of a new variant by observing a few patients.

[mommysboy]

30 minutes ago, partington said:

This is utterly silly. The doctor quoted has treated only a few patients, all of whom were apparently children or young adults.  The fact they had mild symptoms is meaningless statistically.

 

There simply have not been enough tracked patients with this variant as yet to make any sort of valid scientific conclusion about how dangerous it is compared to previous variants.

 

The original SARS-Cov-2  and it's subsequent variants are estimated to have killed 5 million people so far.

It is also estimated that 30% of people infected with these variants not only don't die, but have no symptoms.

 

Therefore you can tell literally nothing about the seriousness of a new variant by observing a few patients.

Not so, we can definitely tell who is blindly optimistic!

[Scott]

It is going to take some time and a fair amount of spread in the general population to get an idea of how serious this variant is.  Given some time, we will have a clearer idea of how lethal it is, whether the vaccines hold up and how easily it spreads.  

 

We can hope that closing borders and stopping travel is an over-reaction.  

 

The danger is that if this has a long asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic time to spread.  A weak virus is good, but it can mean spreading to more people if it is harder for a person to know they are sick.  

[Danderman123]

Another day passes with South Africa having low case numbers and deaths, compared with the Beta and Delta waves.

[Jeffr2]

41 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Another day passes with South Africa having low case numbers and deaths, compared with the Beta and Delta waves.

Rising incredibly fast.  As it is in neighboring countries.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-cases.html

[Scott]

42 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Another day passes with South Africa having low case numbers and deaths, compared with the Beta and Delta waves.

South Africa, one of the world’s leading countries in genetic sequencing and therefore a leading source of data on omicron, has seen a spike in daily Covid cases over the past two weeks — from an average of 246 new cases as of November 14 to 1,851 as of November 28. That has been the basis for much of the concern about omicron being more transmissible.

 

https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/22807565/covid-new-omicron-variant-symptoms-vaccines-treatments

[Jeffr2]

I've posted this before.  It's scary.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421

[atpeace]

7 hours ago, partington said:

This is utterly silly. The doctor quoted has treated only a few patients, all of whom were apparently children or young adults.  The fact they had mild symptoms is meaningless statistically.

 

There simply have not been enough tracked patients with this variant as yet to make any sort of valid scientific conclusion about how dangerous it is compared to previous variants.

 

The original SARS-Cov-2  and it's subsequent variants are estimated to have killed 5 million people so far.

It is also estimated that 30% of people infected with these variants not only don't die, but have no symptoms.

 

Therefore you can tell literally nothing about the seriousness of a new variant by observing a few patients.

To you it is silly but to others it is something to consider.  If the doctors conclusion was that it was more fatal than the other mutations, I would be far from surprised if you posted it to further your tribes agenda.  As for we need to wait and see and gather more data, that is not "silly".  

[itsari]

On 11/26/2021 at 11:23 AM, brewsterbudgen said:

Isn't this what viruses do? It's inevitable that there will be new strains in the future.  Hopefully governments have learned that overreacting isn't going to help.

Underreacting has seen more problems from the beginning of this virus in March 2020 .

[Jeffr2]

10 minutes ago, itsari said:

Underreacting has seen more problems from the beginning of this virus in March 2020 .

True.  The top 3 countries in terms of deaths all denied the pandemic initially.  Kinda still do.  US, Brazil, India.

[atpeace]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

I've posted this before.  It's scary.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956686075580421

Well that sucks! Hope this less of an issue in the developed world but have my doubts.  Maybe it is time to look at alternatives of living with the virus and minimizing deaths.  We are at tipping point IMO and if calm viable solutions aren't discussed many people have nearly had enough with the current governmental measures regardless if they are the right ones.

 

One option, just an opinion and hope this doesn't result in anger in those that disagree,  focus on "who" is dying and where they are dying. Deliver a viable solution to these individuals while also making a concerted effort to return to normal.

 

Over 50%(~11,000) of Thais have died reside in Bangkok and surrounding areas. 7 million more people live in NE Thailand (3 major cities) and only 1,500 deaths.  Get more data on the other major cities and my bet is that 95% of the countries deaths have occurred in cities.  Of these deaths, how many are unhealthy through there choice or fate?

 

Now throw everything at educating and helping those at risk.  The unhealthy in major cities.

 

First thing that happens on these threads is everyone jumps on the poster that has views that don't align with their tribe and never even consider what the other person may be right to some degree.  I possible am mostly wrong but think there is a little truth in what I stated.

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by atpeace

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, atpeace said:

Well that sucks! Hope this less of an issue in the developed world but have my doubts.  Maybe it is time to look at alternatives of living with the virus and minimizing deaths.  We are at tipping point IMO and if calm viable solutions aren't discussed many people have nearly had enough with the current governmental measures regardless if they are the right ones.

 

One option, just an opinion and hope this doesn't result in anger in those that disagree,  focus on "who" is dying and where they are dying. Deliver a viable solution to these individuals while also making a concerted effort to return to normal.

 

Over 50%(~11,000) of Thais have died in Bangkok and surrounding areas. 7 million more people live in NE Thailand (3 major cities) and only 1,500 deaths.  Get more data on the other major cities and my bet is that 95% of the countries deaths have occurred in cities.  Of these deaths, how many are unhealthy through there choice or fate?

 

Now throw everything at educating and helping those at risk.  The unhealthy in major cities.

 

First thing that happens on these threads is everyone jumps on the poster that has views that don't align with their tribe and never even consider what the other person may be right to some degree.  I possible am mostly wrong but think there is a little truth in what I stated.

 

 

 

Our best weapons against this enemy are jabs, masks, social distancing.  Sadly, many are against these.  Vaccine hesitancy is a huge problem in SA, and many other parts of the world.  SA has plenty of jabs.  Just not enough arms to put them in.

[Jeffr2]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/456705/omicron-variant-south-africa-battles-vaccine-hesitancy-conspiracy-theories

 

Omicron variant: South Africa battles vaccine hesitancy, conspiracy theories

 

Professor Charles Shey Wiysonge, director of Cochrane South Africa at the South African Medical Research Council, said there was one clear problem holding back vaccine rates: vaccine hesitancy.

 

Earlier in the year, South Africa's vaccine programme stalled because supply was constrained.

 

Now the country has plenty of doses and not enough people showing up to be vaccinated.

[Bkk Brian]

Covid-19 hospitalizations rising in South Africa’s omicron hot spot

Admissions have increased nearly fourfold since the beginning of November.

 

Hospitalizations across the country have increased by 63 percent since the beginning of the month, according to data from the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases. In Gauteng, a province that includes the country’s largest city, Johannesburg, hospitalizations are up by nearly 400 percent since the beginning of the month

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/covid-19-hospitalizations-rising-south-africas-omicron-hot-spot-rcna6922

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Covid-19 hospitalizations rising in South Africa’s omicron hot spot

Admissions have increased nearly fourfold since the beginning of November.

 

Hospitalizations across the country have increased by 63 percent since the beginning of the month, according to data from the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases. In Gauteng, a province that includes the country’s largest city, Johannesburg, hospitalizations are up by nearly 400 percent since the beginning of the month

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/covid-19-hospitalizations-rising-south-africas-omicron-hot-spot-rcna6922

Perhaps that doc from SA is a bit off....

[Credo]

45 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Well that sucks! Hope this less of an issue in the developed world but have my doubts.  Maybe it is time to look at alternatives of living with the virus and minimizing deaths.  We are at tipping point IMO and if calm viable solutions aren't discussed many people have nearly had enough with the current governmental measures regardless if they are the right ones.

 

One option, just an opinion and hope this doesn't result in anger in those that disagree,  focus on "who" is dying and where they are dying. Deliver a viable solution to these individuals while also making a concerted effort to return to normal.

 

Over 50%(~11,000) of Thais have died reside in Bangkok and surrounding areas. 7 million more people live in NE Thailand (3 major cities) and only 1,500 deaths.  Get more data on the other major cities and my bet is that 95% of the countries deaths have occurred in cities.  Of these deaths, how many are unhealthy through there choice or fate?

 

Now throw everything at educating and helping those at risk.  The unhealthy in major cities.

 

First thing that happens on these threads is everyone jumps on the poster that has views that don't align with their tribe and never even consider what the other person may be right to some degree.  I possible am mostly wrong but think there is a little truth in what I stated.

 

Well, to implement what you suggest would mean de-populating the cities.  I think the Khmer Rouge tried that.   

 

I am not sure what you think would work for the 'unhealthy'.  Maybe forced quarantine?  So, the ones spreading it get a free pass, but the ones who are dying get their right to free movement removed?

 

Oh, and should vigilantes do this, since it appears that you don't want government doing it?

 

[Bluetongue]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Covid-19 hospitalizations rising in South Africa’s omicron hot spot

Admissions have increased nearly fourfold since the beginning of November.

 

Hospitalizations across the country have increased by 63 percent since the beginning of the month, according to data from the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases. In Gauteng, a province that includes the country’s largest city, Johannesburg, hospitalizations are up by nearly 400 percent since the beginning of the month

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/covid-19-hospitalizations-rising-south-africas-omicron-hot-spot-rcna6922

Very interesting, thanks. On WHO figures there was a 728% increase in SA infections week ending 28 Nov, after they roughly doubled the week before. The death rate also roughly doubled last week. So hospitalisations increased by 400% over the month, both figures are in the same ball park, given that it must take time from becoming infected to being ill enough to go to Hospital. So next weeks figures will be much awaited.

 

While I was there I looked at Botswana figures which look a bit rubbery but you can get the trend. They spiked massively a month ago but have gone down since.

[Bkk Brian]

15 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

Very interesting, thanks. On WHO figures there was a 728% increase in SA infections week ending 28 Nov, after they roughly doubled the week before. The death rate also roughly doubled last week. So hospitalisations increased by 400% over the month, both figures are in the same ball park, given that it must take time from becoming infected to being ill enough to go to Hospital. So next weeks figures will be much awaited.

 

While I was there I looked at Botswana figures which look a bit rubbery but you can get the trend. They spiked massively a month ago but have gone down since.

Yes Botswana is trending down from its Delta wave, maybe not been hit by the new variant yet?

 

Speaking to FRANCE 24 on Friday night, Kereng Masupu, coordinator of Botswana’s presidential Covid-19 task force, said the country had detected four confirmed Omicron variant cases and 11 other people were under investigation.

Although public health officials were “very, very worried” about the new variant, Masupu stressed that Botswana is “ready to deal with it”.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20211127-video-top-botswana-health-official-very-concerned-about-omicron-variant

[Chomper Higgot]

5 hours ago, atpeace said:

Well that sucks! Hope this less of an issue in the developed world but have my doubts.  Maybe it is time to look at alternatives of living with the virus and minimizing deaths.  We are at tipping point IMO and if calm viable solutions aren't discussed many people have nearly had enough with the current governmental measures regardless if they are the right ones.

 

One option, just an opinion and hope this doesn't result in anger in those that disagree,  focus on "who" is dying and where they are dying. Deliver a viable solution to these individuals while also making a concerted effort to return to normal.

 

Over 50%(~11,000) of Thais have died reside in Bangkok and surrounding areas. 7 million more people live in NE Thailand (3 major cities) and only 1,500 deaths.  Get more data on the other major cities and my bet is that 95% of the countries deaths have occurred in cities.  Of these deaths, how many are unhealthy through there choice or fate?

 

Now throw everything at educating and helping those at risk.  The unhealthy in major cities.

 

First thing that happens on these threads is everyone jumps on the poster that has views that don't align with their tribe and never even consider what the other person may be right to some degree.  I possible am mostly wrong but think there is a little truth in what I stated.

 

 

 

Have you considered that labelling those who disagree with you as a tribe (something you frequently do) is no conducive to encouraging anyone to considering anything else you have to say?

 

[atpeace]

4 hours ago, Credo said:

Well, to implement what you suggest would mean de-populating the cities.  I think the Khmer Rouge tried that.   

 

I am not sure what you think would work for the 'unhealthy'.  Maybe forced quarantine?  So, the ones spreading it get a free pass, but the ones who are dying get their right to free movement removed?

 

Oh, and should vigilantes do this, since it appears that you don't want government doing it?

 

Huh? De-populating the cities.  Is that really the best option you can come up with?  

 

As for the unhealthy, maybe promoting good health since this virus isn't going away anytime soon.  Also, staying away from crowds might not be a bad idea if you are a magnet for viruses and lack the ability  to overcome them because of poor health.

 

Its odd how people are so bent on supporting their group, they can't see simple alternatives to just promoting one idea.

[Chomper Higgot]

14 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Huh? De-populating the cities.  Is that really the best option you can come up with?  

 

As for the unhealthy, maybe promoting good health since this virus isn't going away anytime soon.  Also, staying away from crowds might not be a bad idea if you are a magnet for viruses and lack the ability  to overcome them because of poor health.

 

Its odd how people are so bent on supporting their group, they can't see simple alternatives to just promoting one idea.

You haven’t come up with any alternatives you’ve simply engaged in finger pointing and victim blaming.

 

People who live in cities: Presumably you don’t count yourself amongst them.

 

People suffering illnesses (who of course you blame for being ill): Presumably you don’t count yourself amongst them.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for encouraging healthier living, but perhaps before concluding people choose to be unhealthy you might consider this piece of epidemiology (it being a bit of a topic these days).

 

When society wide health problems appear, look for a society wide cause.

 

As for your suggestion re getting more data and then examining it.

 

It is data and the examination of data that is driving the public health policies you object to.

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Chomper Higgot

[Jeffr2]

24 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Huh? De-populating the cities.  Is that really the best option you can come up with?  

 

As for the unhealthy, maybe promoting good health since this virus isn't going away anytime soon.  Also, staying away from crowds might not be a bad idea if you are a magnet for viruses and lack the ability  to overcome them because of poor health.

 

Its odd how people are so bent on supporting their group, they can't see simple alternatives to just promoting one idea.

Healthy people are being killed by this virus. Stunning you're not aware of this.

 

What's a simple alternative?

[Rimmer]

A baiting post bordering on a personal attack has been removed also replies

[Jeffr2]

25 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You haven’t come up with any alternatives you’ve simply engaged in finger pointing and victim blaming.

 

People who live in cities: Presumably you don’t count yourself amongst them.

 

People suffering illnesses (who of course you blame for being ill): Presumably you don’t count yourself amongst them.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for encouraging healthier living, but perhaps before concluding people choose to be unhealthy you might consider this piece of epidemiology (it being a bit of a topic these days).

 

When society wide health problems appear, look for a society wide cause.

 

As for your suggestion re getting more data and then examining it.

 

It is data and the examination of data that is driving the public health policies you object to.

 

 

 

Good points. Also, many are at risk not due to their unhealthy lifestyle, but underlying diseases. Some they are just born with. Or. Have cropped up due to old age.

[Danderman123]

On 11/27/2021 at 6:27 AM, cyril sneer said:

We’re all doomed

If there continues to be a reservoir of unvaccinated people, the virus will continue to mutate, and eventually it will discover more efficient means of spreading itself. That could mean becoming more benign, or becoming the variant that is tailored to kill you. 

 

You really don't want to give the virus the opportunity to evolve into a more efficient killing machine, so please get vaccinated.