Is new COVID-19 variant a cause of concern for Thailand?

[JustAnotherHun]

10 hours ago, placnx said:

Unfortunately Omicron will probably not be the last.

Delete "probably" and you're right.

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, pizzachang said:

Didn't everyone know that a "new variant" would be "announced? I'm really surprised at the disconnect between "WHO's Fears" and reality. Haven't all the{Thai} "emergency field hospitals" closed?. Didn't I hear multiple scientists and doctors state publicly, the same information that is common to virus 'behavior?  "They become less dangerous and more transmissible." I also heard on multiple media that "most people seem to have little or no symptoms....if ANY". The entire "virus emergency" seems more like an experiment in some kind of 'global control' of travel, public gatherings, and compliance - but I've been told that is "conspiracy theory".  There are some basic facts that may be useful for allaying "fears".  They are: death rates, recovery rates, comparisons to other lung disease and immunity after natural infection/recovery...hardly a conspiracy.

It is a conspiracy theory.  Basic facts won't be known for several weeks.  Which is what the WHO and every credible media outlet is reporting.  So far, they're just saying it's a variant of concern.

[Eric Loh]

12 hours ago, placnx said:

There is simply not enough production capacity. To not booster US & EU populations would be derelict. It's really unfortunate that the US and others did not assess available capacity a year ago. Then when Biden took office there could have been a plan in place to create more capacity, encourage other countries to do the same. 

A major part of the production issue was that Pfizer, JJ, Moderna & BioNTech were reluctant to relinquish control of their patented knowledge and technology in spite of pressing calls by health advocacy organisations to allow production for poorer countries. Contrast with Sputnik V which was to their credit a model of pandemic diplomacy by broadly licensing their vaccine to 34 drug companies outside their borders like in India and Brazil. In this pandemic diplomacy war, the west especially USA is still losing to China who has came out yesterday and promised a billion doses to Africa. 

[BKKTRAVELER]

9 hours ago, CartagenaWarlock said:

Advocating where? How many rallies you have attended to demand opening? How many letters you have written to authorities and published in news papers? How many  articles you have published advocating for an opening? 

You're right, didn't do it the official way. Still, shared my ideas on various forums and social media, hoping to make others understand how crucial it was for the country to open in order to avoid a complete economic meltdown. At the end, the general opinion matters for the authorities to make decisions ( or so it should).

[Jeffr2]

14 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

A major part of the production issue was that Pfizer, JJ, Moderna & BioNTech were reluctant to relinquish control of their patented knowledge and technology in spite of pressing calls by health advocacy organisations to allow production for poorer countries. Contrast with Sputnik V which was to their credit a model of pandemic diplomacy by broadly licensing their vaccine to 34 drug companies outside their borders like in India and Brazil. In this pandemic diplomacy war, the west especially USA is still losing to China who has came out yesterday and promised a billion doses to Africa. 

Let's hope their donations aren't Sinovac....

 

The problem in SA isn't getting the jabs.  It's getting them in arms.

[Mavideol]

On 11/29/2021 at 9:00 AM, webfact said:

World Health Organization (WHO) declared the new COVID-19 mutant “Omicron” a variant of concern.

wonder the reason for WHO skipping the other Greek letters before Omicron  (Lambda Mu  Nu and XI) maybe afraid of ?????

[ozimoron]

10 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

wonder the reason for WHO skipping the other Greek letters before Omicron  (Lambda Mu  Nu and XI) maybe afraid of ?????

Would you complain if they called it the Smith variant if that was a Greek letter? In case you are confused Xi is a common Chinese surname and is the reason that the name was skipped.

Edited November 30, 2021 by ozimoron

[glassdude007]

19 hours ago, terryofcrete said:

The world is restricting travel and making it more difficult to travel. .Thailand will now do the opposite. Ease entry from US , and for Brits, with their massive daily covid figures .. 

i can't criticise them because I don't know the answers to this conundrum. Let them in ? Keep them out ? Damned if they do and damned if they don't .

Ive just returned from a month's holiday in Phuket and Pattaya . Glad to get home to be honest . Nothing like "normal" and I have cancelled my next trip planned for January ... 

GREAT POST

I’m going back too Phuket  mid Jan for Two months …..

All booked and travel red tape sorted just need too pass the required COVID Tests…..

Have not been back since 2017 before COVID & a Career change….

Still .would not be going if I did not have family & responsibilities that need tending too in Thailand ..

I Have been away far too long already…

No telling what I am getting myself into….

D/T the worldwide COVID Situation no control of this trip..

hope all goes well for all of us….

Does not seem like a fun trip like it used too be that’s for sure…..

It may be my last trip to Thailand as well….

Only time will tell……

Cheers

[johnarth]

well there no vaccine in our area, so thinking of waiting for the new one to come out but then how long will it take to get here? no doubt the sinovac will be scraped now

[Jeffr2]

21 minutes ago, johnarth said:

well there no vaccine in our area, so thinking of waiting for the new one to come out but then how long will it take to get here? no doubt the sinovac will be scraped now

If a new one is needed, and that's not known yet, they are estimating 100 days for a new jab. mRNA technology has changed the game on how quickly they can do this.

[Smokey and the Bandit]

22 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

I guess you also believed the Chinese docs who said their vaccine was very effective against the virus?  Too funny....I'll wait for a report from the WHO or CDC.

 

P.S. South Africa has a very young population.  Nothing like what's in other countries.  Impossible to compare.

The CDC...OK, but the WHO, are you serious, that really is too funny?? Do some research on them and their vested interests!

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

The CDC...OK, but the WHO, are you serious, that really is too funny?? Do some research on them and their vested interests!

The WHO, dont get fooled again they say, or wait was it this WHO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q

[Smokey and the Bandit]

36 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Would you complain if they called it the Smith variant if that was a Greek letter? In case you are confused Xi is a common Chinese surname and is the reason that the name was skipped.

Or is it because its the name of the Chinese President?? The WHO would not want to upset their friends!!

[Jeffr2]

15 minutes ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

The CDC...OK, but the WHO, are you serious, that really is too funny?? Do some research on them and their vested interests!

I have. Whatever there is won't impact their scientific assessment of this new variant.

[Ginner]

On 11/29/2021 at 9:15 AM, HappyExpat57 said:

When in trouble, when in doubt,
Run in circles, scream and shout.

 

Yes, it should be a concern. No, it should not be the reason to shut the country down again. News flash - we're going to have viruses and variants the rest of our lives. What doesn't kill you . . .

The doctor who treated the first 2 cases detected in the UK of the so called "new strain" said the symptoms were no more serious than the common cold and easier to treat. She has since been silenced on the social media and MSM.

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, Ginner said:

The doctor who treated the first 2 cases detected in the UK of the so called "new strain" said the symptoms were no more serious than the common cold and easier to treat. She has since been silenced on the social media and MSM.

Or perhaps she was a figment of somebody's imagination?

[Tonypandy]

17 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

so all of the over the counter medications including cough drops, nasal sprays and so on are a drop in the bucket as well....

Included in the 18 billion. Not the trillions you made up! 

[placnx]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

A major part of the production issue was that Pfizer, JJ, Moderna & BioNTech were reluctant to relinquish control of their patented knowledge and technology in spite of pressing calls by health advocacy organisations to allow production for poorer countries. Contrast with Sputnik V which was to their credit a model of pandemic diplomacy by broadly licensing their vaccine to 34 drug companies outside their borders like in India and Brazil. In this pandemic diplomacy war, the west especially USA is still losing to China who has came out yesterday and promised a billion doses to Africa. 

The issue back then was compulsory licensing and turnover of know how to make mRNA vaccines in numerous countries, at least in the talking points of some very vocal activists, particularly in India and South Africa. On the other hand, the US government has sufficient ways and means to order the creation of production facilities in the US on an expedited basis, which could be operated by Pfizer and Moderna. This vaccine product would be less likely to encounter hesitancy issues due to questions of quality than production cited in countries ill-suited to make even recombinant vaccines.

[placnx]

2 hours ago, Mavideol said:

wonder the reason for WHO skipping the other Greek letters before Omicron  (Lambda Mu  Nu and XI) maybe afraid of ?????

With "Xi" there would be a lot of confusion with the correct pronunciation. 

[Sheryl]

3 hours ago, johnarth said:

well there no vaccine in our area, so thinking of waiting for the new one to come out but then how long will it take to get here? no doubt the sinovac will be scraped now

100 days minimum  for development, longer for clinical testing of safety and efficacy.

 

Do not wait for this.  Try to get AZ or Pfizer or Moderna now. It is highly likely these will provide at least some protection against severe disease from the new variant and they certainly do for the exisitng variants in Thbailand.

 

Hard to believe there is nowhere near you with vaccine. Where do you live?

[cdemundo]

 

6 hours ago, pizzachang said:

Didn't everyone know that a "new variant" would be "announced? I'm really surprised at the disconnect between "WHO's Fears" and reality. Haven't all the{Thai} "emergency field hospitals" closed?. Didn't I hear multiple scientists and doctors state publicly, the same information that is common to virus 'behavior?  "They become less dangerous and more transmissible." I also heard on multiple media that "most people seem to have little or no symptoms....if ANY". The entire "virus emergency" seems more like an experiment in some kind of 'global control' of travel, public gatherings, and compliance - but I've been told that is "conspiracy theory".  There are some basic facts that may be useful for allaying "fears".  They are: death rates, recovery rates, comparisons to other lung disease and immunity after natural infection/recovery...hardly a conspiracy.

Didn't I hear multiple scientists and doctors state publicly, the same information that is common to virus 'behavior?  "They become less dangerous and more transmissible."

 

I didn't know this, do you have some references?

That is good news.

[Sheryl]

2 hours ago, Smokey and the Bandit said:

Or is it because its the name of the Chinese President?? The WHO would not want to upset their friends!!

There is no mystery about this and nothing being hidden.

 

Who openly stated Xi was not used because it is a common last name in China, including that of the current leader.

 

It is standard to omit names that sound like other common worlds or names.

 

 

[Sheryl]

2 hours ago, Ginner said:

The doctor who treated the first 2 cases detected in the UK of the so called "new strain" said the symptoms were no more serious than the common cold and easier to treat. She has since been silenced on the social media and MSM.

Nobody has been "silenced". 

 

Anecdotal report of 2 cases is meaningless. Even reports of hundreds of cases, still insufficient to draw conclusions -- especially when, as is the case in South Africa - these cases were mainly in young people. And when the first cases was found just recently (hospitalizations and deaths typically train new cases by several weeks).

 

Nobody has claimed or implied the new variant causes more severe disease, rather it has been accurately stated that it is too soon to tell. And it is.

 

Best scenario is that it will prove no more serious than prior strains in unvaccinated people (i.e. same or lower percentage needing hospitalization/deaths) and that it will have lower incidence (at least of severe disease) in vaccinated persons i.e. the current vaccines will still be at least partially protective.

 

This best case scenario is entirely possible but it is too soon to say.

 

 

[cdemundo]

6 minutes ago, cdemundo said:

 

Didn't I hear multiple scientists and doctors state publicly, the same information that is common to virus 'behavior?  "They become less dangerous and more transmissible."

 

I didn't know this, do you have some references?

That is good news.

checked a bit...

Apparently, this is not quite true.

 

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-011488089270

 

[But in fact, there have been cases of viruses that mutated to become more deadly.

“That claim as a whole is just nonsense,” said Troy Day, a professor of mathematics and biology at Queen’s University in Canada, who has studied the ways infectious diseases, including coronavirus, can evolve.

Some examples of viruses that became more deadly over time includethose that developed drug resistant variants, and animal viruses such as bird flu, which were harmless to humans initially but then mutated to become capable of killing people, according to Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security.

“Flu viruses have developed resistance to certain antivirals that make them more difficult to treat, and therefore make them more deadly,” Adalja said, also noting the same has happened with HIV and certain Hepatitis C strains.

...

“Becoming more transmissible and less lethal are absolutely what’s best for the pathogen,” said Day. “But the problem is that it’s not always possible, and in many instances is never possible, to be more transmissible and also less lethal.”]

 

So in theory the optimum for the virus to proliferate is to let the host live and become more transmissible. But the selection process acts on the variations in the population, and the the variation is a result of random mutation so the optimum variants may not (may never) occur.

 

 

]

[Sheryl]

Mutations can occur randomly (in which case they can be anything, having any or - most commonly - no effect on how transmissable or deadly a virus is) - and through natural selection or a combination of both.

 

Mutations that occur due to natural selection will always be ones that favor increased viral replication. Viral replication in turn depends on how easily a virus can be transmitted and how long it can live in a host. Quickly killing a host is not in a virus' interests so typically, over time within a population, a virus will become less lethal. But this can take quite a while to occur (years or even generations). Also, being less lethal can mean either not causing serious disease OR having a long time lag between infection and severe disease/death. This was the secret behind the HIV virus's success: while being extremely lethal in the absence of treatment, it took 5-10 years to get to that point, and during much of that time the person did not even feel ill. So the fact that it eventually killed was not a deterrent to viral spread.

[jacko45k]

4 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

In this pandemic diplomacy war, the west especially USA is still losing to China who has came out yesterday and promised a billion doses to Africa. 

For free, or does it come will strings attached, like they have to give over their major shipping port or airport if they default?

[terryofcrete]

3 hours ago, glassdude007 said:

may be my last trip to Thailand as well….

Only time will tell……

Cheers

If you have responsibilities to attend too that is a a solid reason to travel back there. I wish you well . Already saying that the Omicron variant is milder just more contagious. ... Good luck to you sir.    

[Jeffr2]

38 minutes ago, terryofcrete said:

If you have responsibilities to attend too that is a a solid reason to travel back there. I wish you well . Already saying that the Omicron variant is milder just more contagious. ... Good luck to you sir.    

No credible scientist has said that. None.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, cdemundo said:

checked a bit...

Apparently, this is not quite true.

 

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-011488089270

 

[But in fact, there have been cases of viruses that mutated to become more deadly.

“That claim as a whole is just nonsense,” said Troy Day, a professor of mathematics and biology at Queen’s University in Canada, who has studied the ways infectious diseases, including coronavirus, can evolve.

Some examples of viruses that became more deadly over time includethose that developed drug resistant variants, and animal viruses such as bird flu, which were harmless to humans initially but then mutated to become capable of killing people, according to Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security.

“Flu viruses have developed resistance to certain antivirals that make them more difficult to treat, and therefore make them more deadly,” Adalja said, also noting the same has happened with HIV and certain Hepatitis C strains.

...

“Becoming more transmissible and less lethal are absolutely what’s best for the pathogen,” said Day. “But the problem is that it’s not always possible, and in many instances is never possible, to be more transmissible and also less lethal.”]

 

So in theory the optimum for the virus to proliferate is to let the host live and become more transmissible. But the selection process acts on the variations in the population, and the the variation is a result of random mutation so the optimum variants may not (may never) occur.

 

 

]

When a virus becomes more transmissable, even if it remains no more lethal that its predecessor, it may claim more lives because it infects more people.

[connda]

Is new COVID-19 variant a cause of concern for Thailand?

Yes!  It will kill everyone.  Close the borders now!!!