SURVEY: Omicron--Dangerous, Worrisome or Overblown?

[mommysboy]

9 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Everyone in Thailand will be exposed to it like everywhere else. Thailand can slow it down somewhat but they should really be focused on a  more aggressive vaccine program (plus boosters to those in that time frame) to hit 90 percent of the population ASAP.

The vaccines, although useful, don't seem to be quite as useful as we'd hoped unfortunately. It may be they will need to used as a 'throw mud at the wall to see what sticks' solution for the time being.

 

Definitely an essential health care policy though- at least partly effective.

 

Upgrades definitely needed and soon.

[Airalee]

36 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I don't believe in 'long COVID'.

IMHO it's a lie to try and frighten the people into mindless compliance.

The only people I know who tested positive for COVID didn't even know they had it.

Of the few people I know personally who got Covid, only one had any symptoms requiring hospitalization (he is obese) and the other two just had slightly sore throats.

 

Nobody I know had “long covid”.  Of course, the obese guy claimed it was hard walking upstairs after Covid, but who’s to say that is a byproduct of “long Covid” and not just a byproduct of his unhealthy lifestyle that led to his obesity that led to him being worse off with Covid?  I’m not surprised he had trouble walking upstairs after being sick with a BMI that was probably pushing 40.  Probably would have had the same trouble with a common cold.

 

I do however know of someone with myocarditis after getting his second MRNA shot and now, after his booster (which he very much regrets getting), it’s even worse.  He’s not going to get anymore “jabs”.

 

The thing about the shots….no refunds,  no do-overs.

Edited December 15, 2021 by Airalee

[rabas]

1 hour ago, fjb 24 said:

Although more resistant to the two-dose Pfizer-BioNTech, omicron appears to cause less severe illness than earlier variants of the coronavirus as reported by Discovery Health in South Africa.

I have not seen any death stats for omicron except for the recent death "with" omicron reported in the UK and the WHO (not the band) now warning of a surge in omicron deaths which is spreading at an unprecedented rate.

It depends very much on what is meant by mild.

a) Omicron itself is an intrinsically milder virus?  Or

b) cases in SA are mild relative to SA's previous waves.

 

Very different scenarios. Scientists and SA officials lean towards b while cautioning about assuming a. The primary reason is that after three prior waves, roughly 72% in Gauteng have had Covid and many are vaccinated including 50+% of older people, shifting most cases to lower ages.

 

But because Omicron easily cuts through existing immunity (Delta can't) many cases have some existing immunity in addition to being younger.  Younger cases with existing immunity surely mean milder cases. There is no reason to assume the Omicron strain is significantly weaker. 

 

South Africa’s high level of infections could be masking how severe Omicron is

[Virt]

39 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I don't believe in 'long COVID'.

IMHO it's a lie to try and frighten the people into mindless compliance.

The only people I know who tested positive for COVID didn't even know they had it.

I'm not sure my friends and colleagues will agree on that.

1 has permanent lung tissue damage caused by covid.

1 still can't taste anything 2 months after having covid.

2 others  have issues with both taste and smell.

 

I don't know if you have few friends or don't work anymore, since you don't know anyone that suffers from long COVID, but trust me it's there.

 

Sorry if being grumpy, but tomorrow we're putting a buddy of mine into the grave after covid caused the death.

[fjb 24]

12 minutes ago, rabas said:

mild

Most infections are described as mild, with recoveries usually within three days, he said. The most common early symptom reported is a scratchy throat, followed by nasal congestion, a dry cough and myalgia, or aches, manifesting in lower back pain.

[TorquayFan]

Virt - sorry to hear about your Friend and R.I.P.

 

Long Covid is unfortunately a reality . . . . .

 

So is a clear need to be vaccinated.

 

[mommysboy]

31 minutes ago, rabas said:

It depends very much on what is meant by mild.

a) Omicron itself is an intrinsically milder virus?  Or

b) cases in SA are mild relative to SA's previous waves.

 

Very different scenarios. Scientists and SA officials lean towards b while cautioning about assuming a. The primary reason is that after three prior waves, roughly 72% in Gauteng have had Covid and many are vaccinated including 50+% of older people, shifting most cases to lower ages.

 

But because Omicron easily cuts through existing immunity (Delta can't) many cases have some existing immunity in addition to being younger.  Younger cases with existing immunity surely mean milder cases. There is no reason to assume the Omicron strain is significantly weaker. 

 

South Africa’s high level of infections could be masking how severe Omicron is

Possibly. A good argument but still conjecture.

 

But an inescapable conclusion is that in countries like the UK where there has been a very successful vaccine campaign together with a higher disease incidence, there really is no need for panic, since the disease manifestation will be much the same as SA in basically healthy individuals.

 

Actually, I'm beginning to think the only way through covid on a personal level is to get as many jabs as possible and carry on as normal, and that until we have the courage to do this as a society then we will be locked in a constant cycle of lockdowns. Gaining immunity seems to extremely important- suffice to say.

Edited December 15, 2021 by mommysboy

[mommysboy]

11 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Most infections are described as mild, with recoveries usually within three days, he said. The most common early symptom reported is a scratchy throat, followed by nasal congestion, a dry cough and myalgia, or aches, manifesting in lower back pain.

There is a counter argument unfortunately (I'm not saying I support it) : the same goes for any variant- mostly it is a mild infection if at all, but as we know thousands turn nasty, leading to rather a high number of deaths.

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Possibly. A good argument but still conjecture.

 

But an inescapable conclusion is that in countries like the UK where there has been a very successful vaccine campaign together with a higher disease incidence, there really is no need for panic, since the disease manifestation will be much the same as SA in basically healthy individuals.

There is no panic in the UK though is there? Just some extra measures placed and more people getting a booster, preparations thats all, thats how I see it there and also one of my daughters who is a nurse there.

[rabas]

23 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Possibly. A good argument but still conjecture.

 

But an inescapable conclusion is that in countries like the UK where there has been a very successful vaccine campaign together with a higher disease incidence, there really is no need for panic, since the disease manifestation will be much the same as SA in basically healthy individuals.

Precisely the point scientists make about Omicron's apparent mildness in SA due to prior immunity. They in fact use the UK example where Delta looks milder because of prior immunity and vaccines (Delta right).  Delta (the virus) was not milder in the UK, the UK was better protected.

 

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469338765030313984

 

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by rabas

[richard_smith237]

There is another facet.... 

 

Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus into something that evades vaccines and has more severe symptoms.

 

Where as seasonal influenza and colds are proven to evolve into new variants the antigenic drift is not significant, every few years we have a slightly more serious variant of influenza which may or may not have been predicted / tracked by virologists creating influenza vaccines.

 

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has drifted into variants of concern more frequently. The concern is that they could drift into something as serious as SARS-CoV-1 and MERS (which had high case fatality rates).

 

The issue with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and any other variant which is significantly more contagious even if the symptoms are not any more serious is simply that a lot more people will contact it, especially if it evades vaccination.

 

When millions and millions of people world wide have Covid-19 the potential for further antigenic drift of the SARS-CoV-2 virus into something more serious is present. 

 

This pandemic has not (yet) produced a VoHC - Variant of High Consequence. 

 

The obvious concern is that the more people who carry SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19 the greater the potential for antigenic drift into a variant which does not respond to vaccination or treatment and presents with a more severe clinical disease. 

 

Thus: While Omicron may not be cause for concern in its current ’state’ the degree of contagiousness may give cause for concern if it can evade vaccines and infect more people and increase the potential of the virus to evolve into something more devastating.

 

For this reason alone the virus needs slowing so that virologist can create further vaccines which are effective against new variants and so that the medical profession can create and design effective treatments. 

 

Hopefully the end game of all of this is that effective treatment for symptoms of all respiratory viruses is achieved. 

 

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html#anchor_1632158924994

 

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by richard_smith237

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

I don't believe in 'long COVID'.

IMHO it's a lie to try and frighten the people into mindless compliance.

The only people I know who tested positive for COVID didn't even know they had it.

Right, so people being diagnosed and treated for ‘Long COVID’ are liars and the doctors treating them are liars too.

 

Added to which, in order to fit your conspiracy theory, they are all coordinating their lies.

Long COVID is real.

 

https://www.yourcovidrecovery.nhs.uk/what-is-covid-19/long-covid/

 

[mommysboy]

15 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

There is another facet.... 

 

Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus into something that evades vaccines and has more severe symptoms.

 

Where as seasonal influenza and colds are proven to evolve into new variants the antigenic drift is not significant, every few years we have a slightly more serious variant of influenza which may or may not have been predicted / tracked by virologists creating influenza vaccines.

 

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has drifted into variants of concern more frequently. The concern is that they could drift into something as serious as SARS-CoV-1 and MERS (which had high case fatality rates).

 

The issue with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and any other variant which is significantly more contagious even if the symptoms are not any more serious is simply that a lot more people will contact it, especially if it evades vaccination.

 

When millions and millions of people world wide have Covid-19 the potential for further antigenic drift of the SARS-CoV-2 virus into something more serious is present. 

 

This pandemic has not (yet) produced a VoHC - Variant of High Consequence. 

 

The obvious concern is that the more people who carry SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19 the greater the potential for antigenic drift into a variant which does not respond to vaccination or treatment and presents with a more severe clinical disease. 

 

Thus: While Omicron may not be cause for concern in its current ’state’ the degree of contagiousness may give cause for concern if it can evade vaccines and infect more people and increase the potential of the virus to evolve into something more devastating.

 

For this reason alone the virus needs slowing so that virologist can create further vaccines which are effective against new variants and so that the medical profession can create and design effective treatments. 

 

Hopefully the end game of all of this is that effective treatment for symptoms of all respiratory viruses is achieved. 

 

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html#anchor_1632158924994

 

 

 

 

Is this what is known as an improbable possible?

 

It could happen I suppose, after all earth was once hit by a giant meterorite.

 

But I'm not sure about this happening with a variant- a dog is a dog; it can't change in to a wolf.

 

 

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, Virt said:

I don't know if you have few friends or don't work anymore, since you don't know anyone that suffers from long COVID, but trust me it's there.

You're right, I don't associate with sick old people.

There are a few around in the village, although in Thailand sick old folk tend to die fairly quickly.

But so far nobody in my village (250 homes, around 1000 inhabitants) has even been to hospital with COVID.

 

One house of symptom less students was grabbed and sent to COVID camp for a couple of weeks. One friend of the misses was also grabbed and sent to COVID camp.

Edited December 15, 2021 by BritManToo

[richard_smith237]

7 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Is this what is known as an improbable possible?

 

It could happen I suppose, after all earth was once hit by a giant meterorite.

 

But I'm not sure about this happening with a variant- a dog is a dog; it can't change in to a wolf.

 

 

SARS-CoV-1  - 10% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

MERS - 30% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

 

There are 7 know Coronaviruses which impact humans. 

 

4 of them (two types Alpha and and two types of Beta) are attributed with 20-30% of common household colds.

 

Then there is the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. 

 

And then we have.....  

 

SARS-CoV-1  - 10% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

MERS - 30% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

 

Coronaviruses have already proven they can be a ‘wolf’.... and while your ’cute ’strawman’ analogy a ‘dog cannot change into a wolf’ sounds great in a pub, it is not a sound scientific argument.

 

 

But... as you mentioned... an improbable possible ?... who knows, the virus already evolved into something more serious and dangerous than the original variant - so the improbable possible already happened..... 

 

I don’t want to ‘fear monger’... but there is definitely cause for concern with the potential for further evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. 

 

More so than the variants in their current guise what concerns me the most is the potential for drift if the existing variants are not slowed down.

 

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, Thunglom said:

the information on Omicron is suspiciously being dribbled out a bit at a time.

It is a very different new variant and is already the dominant variant in many locations.

 

Third vaccines are only effective for a couple of months - this situation is a lot more serious than people realise - even if t effects are mostly mild, the vast numbers involved and rapidity of transmission (up to R4!!0 will soon take over the planet.

Even if Thailand avoids te main brunt of it, they will feel the effects in further collapse of the tourist industry.

 

there HAS to be a NEW vaccine - and fast!

Despite people thinking that life is stable and rational, nature has other plans. IMO chaos is more normal.

Sooo, if it does take over the whole planet, that's just the way the cookie crumbles. For all our vaunted science, we don't have many answers, and despite all the vaccine mandates, if nature decides we must lump it, that is our fate.

 

IMO if the Swedish way had been done by all countries, we'd be over it by now. IMO trying to eradicate it was misguided and just postponed a situation such as we are in in NZ now. 18 months with hardly any cases and now it's apparently taking over the country, despite high vaccination rates.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

SARS-CoV-1  - 10% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

MERS - 30% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

 

There are 7 know Coronaviruses which impact humans. 

 

4 of them (two types Alpha and and two types of Beta) are attributed with 20-30% of common household colds.

 

Then there is the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. 

 

And then we have.....  

 

SARS-CoV-1  - 10% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

MERS - 30% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

 

Coronaviruses have already proven they can be a ‘wolf’.... and while your ’cute ’strawman’ analogy a ‘dog cannot change into a wolf’ sounds great in a pub, it is not a sound scientific argument.

 

 

But... as you mentioned... an improbable possible ?... who knows, the virus already evolved into something more serious and dangerous than the original variant - so the improbable possible already happened..... 

 

I don’t want to ‘fear monger’... but there is definitely cause for concern with the potential for further evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. 

 

More so than the variants in their current guise what concerns me the most is the potential for drift if the existing variants are not slowed down.

 

 

 

Hmmmm. millions/ billions of $ spent sticking needles in arms and apparently making not a lot of difference with the latest variant. So, spend more billions of borrowed money to make a new vaccine and stick that in millions of arms, only to have next variant starting all over.

 

11 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I don’t want to ‘fear monger’..

You don't need to, Plenty of government voices doing that already.

I never realised before how many Chicken Littles there are in positions of influence. Seems that rather than be positive and lead us, they prefer to try and frighten us and use a big stick to enforce their will. I doubt anyone will ever know how much damage has been inflicted on western society by the lockdown culture, with it's unintended consequences of suicide, family violence, destroyed businesses, missed education etc etc etc.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

34 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Thus: While Omicron may not be cause for concern in its current ’state’ the degree of contagiousness may give cause for concern if it can evade vaccines and infect more people and increase the potential of the virus to evolve into something more devastating.

 

For this reason alone the virus needs slowing so that virologist can create further vaccines which are effective against new variants and so that the medical profession can create and design effective treatments. 

"needs slowing". Hmmm, I wonder just how that could be done? Could it be, just possibly, that it can't be slowed- that's my guess.

So, IMO, it ends by itself, either by running out of bodies to infect, or by losing potency and becoming another flu/ cold type disease that we can live with.

 

Either way, IMO, not much we humans can do about it, despite all the money we are throwing at it. I suspect Mother Nature will have her way, despite all the shouting.

[BritManToo]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

"needs slowing". Hmmm, I wonder just how that could be done?

Stopping all air travel for everyone would slow all diseases down.

If people can't move around, neither can disease.

[Virt]

37 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

You're right, I don't associate with sick old people.

There are a few around in the village, although in Thailand sick old folk tend to die fairly quickly.

But so far nobody in my village (250 homes, around 1000 inhabitants) has even been to hospital with COVID.

 

One house of symptom less students was grabbed and sent to COVID camp for a couple of weeks. One friend of the misses was also grabbed and sent to COVID camp

Long COVID does not care if you are 10 or 90 years of age.

The colleagues and friends i have that suffer from long COVID all are below age 50.

 

 

[BritManToo]

3 minutes ago, Virt said:

Long COVID does not care if you are 10 or 90 years of age.

The colleagues and friends i have that suffer from long COVID all are below age 50.

Live the rest of your life cowering in a corner if you want.

It's not for me.

 

At age 65 I doubt I've got more than 5 years left.

I don't have any worries about long-term problems, I won't be here to see them.

Edited December 15, 2021 by BritManToo

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Stopping all air travel for everyone would slow all diseases down.

If people can't move around, neither can disease.

I heard someone on the radio saying that flu has apparently vanished because so few people are flying now, though I have my suspicions about flu still killing people and....................................( fill in the blank yourself ).

[fjb 24]

9 minutes ago, Virt said:

Long COVID does not care if you are 10 or 90 years of age.

The colleagues and friends i have that suffer from long COVID all are below age 50.

 

 

Have your colleagues and friends suffering from long covid been vaccinated? Have they recovered?

Edited December 15, 2021 by fjb 24

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

Live the rest of your life cowering in a corner if you want.

It's not for me.

Well said. Pity that so many want to convince everyone to be as fearful as they are.

[Thunglom]

36 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Despite people thinking that life is stable and rational, nature has other plans. IMO chaos is more normal.

Sooo, if it does take over the whole planet, that's just the way the cookie crumbles. For all our vaunted science, we don't have many answers, and despite all the vaccine mandates, if nature decides we must lump it, that is our fate.

 

IMO if the Swedish way had been done by all countries, we'd be over it by now. IMO trying to eradicate it was misguided and just postponed a situation such as we are in in NZ now. 18 months with hardly any cases and now it's apparently taking over the country, despite high vaccination rates.

Interesting mix of misinformation and fridge magnet philosophy.

 

(As of November of 2021 around 82 per cent of the population aged 16 or older had been vaccinated with two doses.)

[rabas]

2 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Have your colleagues and friends suffering from long covid been vaccinated?

Nature Journal: Do vaccines protect against long COVID?

 

Physiotherapist David Putrino’s neurological rehabilitation clinics:

 

[David Putrino’s] Mount Sinai Hospital’s Abilities Research Center in New York City, treats another 50–100 people each week who are coping with issues such as extreme fatigue, breathlessness, difficulty concentrating or any of the many other symptoms of long COVID — the long-lasting, poorly understood syndrome that can occur after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. He has 1,600 clients with long COVID, and more on a waiting list.

 

Putrino has noticed that even being fully vaccinated doesn’t necessarily protect against long COVID.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, rabas said:

issues such as extreme fatigue, breathlessness, difficulty concentrating or any of the many other symptoms of long COVID

I've met many in my life that had those symptoms, long before covid appeared. Often related to work.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

Interesting mix of misinformation and fridge magnet philosophy.

 

(As of November of 2021 around 82 per cent of the population aged 16 or older had been vaccinated with two doses.)

Excellent reply.

Pity that your reference to many being double vaxxed had nothing to do with what I wrote.

[Chomper Higgot]

45 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Hmmmm. millions/ billions of $ spent sticking needles in arms and apparently making not a lot of difference with the latest variant. So, spend more billions of borrowed money to make a new vaccine and stick that in millions of arms, only to have next variant starting all over.

 

You don't need to, Plenty of government voices doing that already.

I never realised before how many Chicken Littles there are in positions of influence. Seems that rather than be positive and lead us, they prefer to try and frighten us and use a big stick to enforce their will. I doubt anyone will ever know how much damage has been inflicted on western society by the lockdown culture, with it's unintended consequences of suicide, family violence, destroyed businesses, missed education etc etc etc.

 

You are once again making a strawman argument.

 

The vaccination programs are justified on the basis of their success against the varients for which they were designed to combat, they have done a remarkable job at reducing infections, serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths.

 

The advent of a new variant is not in any sense a failure of the vaccines and vaccination programs.

 

 

[richard_smith237]

50 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

SARS-CoV-1  - 10% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

MERS - 30% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

 

There are 7 know Coronaviruses which impact humans. 

 

4 of them (two types Alpha and and two types of Beta) are attributed with 20-30% of common household colds.

 

Then there is the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. 

 

And then we have.....  

 

SARS-CoV-1  - 10% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

MERS - 30% Case Fatality Rate (thankfully low transmission)

 

Coronaviruses have already proven they can be a ‘wolf’.... and while your ’cute ’strawman’ analogy a ‘dog cannot change into a wolf’ sounds great in a pub, it is not a sound scientific argument.

 

 

But... as you mentioned... an improbable possible ?... who knows, the virus already evolved into something more serious and dangerous than the original variant - so the improbable possible already happened..... 

 

I don’t want to ‘fear monger’... but there is definitely cause for concern with the potential for further evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. 

 

More so than the variants in their current guise what concerns me the most is the potential for drift if the existing variants are not slowed down.

 

 

 

Expand  

Hmmmm. millions/ billions of $ spent sticking needles in arms and apparently making not a lot of difference with the latest variant. So, spend more billions of borrowed money to make a new vaccine and stick that in millions of arms, only to have next variant starting all over.

 

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

I don’t want to ‘fear monger’..

You don't need to, Plenty of government voices doing that already.

I never realised before how many Chicken Littles there are in positions of influence. Seems that rather than be positive and lead us, they prefer to try and frighten us and use a big stick to enforce their will. I doubt anyone will ever know how much damage has been inflicted on western society by the lockdown culture, with it's unintended consequences of suicide, family violence, destroyed businesses, missed education etc etc etc.

I agree that there are consequences to the response to mitigating Covid-19 and those consequences are by no means insignificant. However the argument cannot be simplified into ‘right and wrong’ response, rather any response taken by governments world wide needs (needed) to be evaluated from the response of ‘least potentially devastating’......

 

You [thaibeachlovers] argue from the perspective that we have had further variants despite vaccinations and lockdowns. It could also be argued that we have not (yet) encountered a far more dangerous variant because of vaccinations. 

 

One thing we do know is that SARS-CoV-2 evolves, could it evolve into something more devastating, would it have already evolved into something more devastating had we (the world) not slowed the virus down ????

 

These are questions than can only be answered with 20:20 hindsight.

 

If you were in a position of global decision making power would you ignore the virus and let it run its natural course ?