Thai Economy Expected to Fully Recover in 2023

[Jonathan Fairfield]

 

The Ministry of Finance says it expects the Thai economy to fully recover by 2023, driven mainly by the tourism sector.

 

Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said 2022 should see the start of the rebound, with the economy expected to expand 4% next year amid strong export growth and the injection of 1 trillion baht in state funds into economic circulation.

 

Roughly 600 billion baht will be drawn from the state investment budget while about 300 billion baht will come from state enterprise investment funds. Another 100 billion baht remains from the 250 billion baht that the government borrowed through the second emergency loan decree.

 

The Minister added that private and domestic consumption should also help drive the recovery, with the government boosting consumer confidence to further encourage spending.

 

The government is also slated to open a new round of registrations for state welfare cards in 2022.

 

According to Bank of Thailand (BoT) Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, the nation’s economy could return to pre-pandemic levels by the first quarter of 2023. He added that fiscal and monetary policies must continue to support the national recovery.

 

Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC) has meanwhile downgraded its 2022 economic growth forecast to 3.2%, down from 3.4%. It based its projection on the expected impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant on the global economy and Thailand’s tourism industry.

 

SCB EIC said it expects the Thai economy to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2023.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2021-12-12

 

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[worgeordie]

Wishful thinking , in times like these making a forecast not easy.

I think he would not bet his house on it.

regards Worgeordie

Edited December 12, 2021 by worgeordie

[HappyExpat57]

With the endless examples of rubbish that has spewed from their gaping maws, no one believes a word they say any more.

[ezzra]

Pipe dreams, there will NOT be a significant tourism increased under the current rules and regulations what with inflation is now rearing it's head in the US and Europe money will be tight as inflation-panicked global markets hiking it's interest rates If global markets continue to panic about inflation, sell off bonds and lift their interest rates people will stay at home and not splurge on overseas trips...

[StayinThailand2much]

1 hour ago, worgeordie said:

Wishful thinking , in times like these making a forecast not easy.

I think he would not bet his house on it.

regards Worgeordie

He probably also knows next week's lottery numbers...

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The Ministry of Finance says it expects the Thai economy to fully recover by 2023, driven mainly by the tourism sector.

So 20% drives the other 80%

[khunPer]

1 hour ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The Ministry of Finance says it expects the Thai economy to fully recover by 2023, driven mainly by the tourism sector.

Great news, so the nation seems to be back to almost 40 million "business as usual"-tourists in 2023, or a similar income from a smaller number of wealthy quality tourists...

[4MyEgo]

I think it's another misprint, more like 2033

[fredscats]

Ha Ha      Thailand is a bottom feeder,1st world countries will dictate when Thailand recovers.....and that more than probably will be never

[curtklay]

He must live in a parallel universe.

[Scott Tracy]

Dream on.

[brucegoniners]

Yeah right. This economy won't fully recover for many years I'm afraid. This would be with the assumption Covid is over and there won't be any surprises to follow. Not gonna happen. I'm afraid Covid will be with us forever.

[daveAustin]

Can’t see international tourists returning in huge numbers like before even if covid ‘goes away’. They’d need to rely more on China to get numbers up.  

[Meat Pie 47]

2 hours ago, curtklay said:

He must live in a parallel universe.

Oh no, Thailand is the center of the universe !

[Virt]

3 hours ago, hotchilli said:

So 20% drives the other 80%

Is that pareto principle doing a reversed cowgirl?

 

[Longwood50]

5 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said 2022 should see the start of the rebound, with the economy expected to expand 4% next year amid strong export growth and the injection of 1 trillion baht in state funds into economic circulation.

[vandeventer]

2 hours ago, brucegoniners said:

Yeah right. This economy won't fully recover for many years I'm afraid. This would be with the assumption Covid is over and there won't be any surprises to follow. Not gonna happen. I'm afraid Covid will be with us forever.

It would be sooner if the fear of covid was not on the minds of Thai people, also the fear of losing of ones job for not being vaccinated.

[Rodjrin]

You’re ‘avin a larf !

[khunpa]

6 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Can’t see international tourists returning in huge numbers like before even if covid ‘goes away’. They’d need to rely more on China to get numbers up.  

Don’t worry. Soon millions of super-rich Indians will arrive, all desperate to buy government-bonds and over-priced condos to get a long term visa. 
 

No need for the Chinese or low-life poor Farangs to save the economy.

 

 

[RichardColeman]

 

12 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The Ministry of Finance says it expects the Thai economy to fully recover by 2023, driven mainly by the tourism sector.

Since the economy is about 20% tourism they truly are banking on a lot of 'tourism hopefuls'

 

PCR testing, quarantine no matter how many days, vaccine confirmation, insurance and the farce pass will keep numbers extremely low. I seriously cannot see more than 100-300,000 a month next year if it remains in place. That would be equal to about 3.6 million at best - 20% of their fabled 14 million they are saying they will be getting.

 

If that happens, then I would imagine 3.6 million next year at best, no more than 6-7 if they dropped the pass and omicron gives us all immunity !

 

The recovery of tourism is more important to Thailand than a lot of other countries.

 

I think 3-4 million tourists next year at best, 8-12 in 2023, 18-20 in 2024, 28-30 2025 and then back to normal in 2026. So I think it fair to say the fanciful thinking of back to normal in 2023 is plain nonsense.

 

[Stargeezr]

Did this guy used to work at TAT?  He seems to be under the 

belief that Thailand is the only tourist place in the world, and with all the

present rules, and restrictions that people will fly to Thailand in the huge

numbers that existed before COVID.  Dream on buddy.

  

[Skypirate]

Christ sakes, this is like a rolodex of forecasts, just roll the cards and use a new date.  I really wonder if they have a clue, or just trying to justify their position by appeasing the public with a hook, line and sinker.

[ChC1]

Although the exact year Thai economy will be back is disputed. But the idea of 2022 being not any good is somewhat honest.

 

Looks like the Thai Tourism suicidal policy of Thailand Pass will continue to 2022 and the economy will take a hit until 2023 when the government finally realise it is smothering the economy to slow death.