Nine Omicron cases confirmed in Thailand to date, five others await confirmation

[JonnyF]

11 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

Average daily Covid deaths this past week in South Africa:  27.

 

But yesterday, the number of Covid deaths in SA doubled to 54.

 

Source: https://covid-19dashboard.news24.com 

In a largely unvaccinated population.

 

Still, one day doesn't really prove anything anyway. In May this year for example, the death figures for 3 days in a row were 90, 311, then 47. It's all over the place. 27 to 54 in one day is not unusual. In November it was 114 one day (25th) and 12 the next day (26th). You can't draw conclusions from a one day spike or drop or on 26th November you'd have concluded it was heading for zero.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

 

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

In a largely unvaccinated population.

 

Still, one day doesn't really prove anything anyway. In May this year for example, the death figures for 3 days in a row were 90, 311, then 47. It's all over the place. 27 to 54 in one day is not unusual. In November it was 114 one day (25th) and 12 the next day (26th). You can't draw conclusions from a one day spike or drop or on 26th November you'd have concluded it was heading for zero.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

 

Its a 13% increase in weekly trend

[JonnyF]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Its a 13% increase in weekly trend

In a largely unvaccinated population where the number cases are absolutely skyrocketing (from 17,000 to around 200,000 in 4 weeks).

 

Simply, cases are doing this.

 

 

And deaths are doing this.

 

 

It's clearly far less deadly.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, JonnyF said:

In a largely unvaccinated population where the number cases are absolutely skyrocketing (from 17,000 to around 200,000 in 4 weeks).

 

Simply, cases are doing this.

 

 

And deaths are doing this.

 

 

It's clearly far less deadly.

With a 13% increase in weekly death trends currently I would wait another couple of weeks to reassess. 

[robsamui]

48 minutes ago, RafPinto said:

What does Thailand do to keep this Omicron spread very low.
UK is spreading like wildfire.

Maybe Thai Health Minister should travel the world and lecture how Thailand keeps this thing out.

Not to worry - the man with the duck has already vowed that there's no Omicron.

He's cunning . . . knows damn well that it's air-borne and not in the soil.

Edited December 16, 2021 by robsamui

[khunpa]

In my Home country, my daughter attended a 2 hour dinner “party” with 28 people three days ago. Yesterday 24 were tested positive. (All fully vaccinated)

 

It will be exciting to see what happens when the spread takes off here in Thailand. 

In theory it would spread super fast here as they test far less and tests are not free.

 

One thing for sure… Be prepare to get infected within the coming weeks/months. This new variant is spreading like crazy.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by khunpa

[Macrohistory]

44 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

In a largely unvaccinated population where the number cases are absolutely skyrocketing (from 17,000 to around 200,000 in 4 weeks).

 

Simply, cases are doing this.

 

 

And deaths are doing this.

 

 

It's clearly far less deadly.

 

72% of people in Gauteng Province have likely had Covid before, according to seroprevalence analysis.  Add to the people who've been sick the people who've been vaccinated and your "in a largely unvaccinated population" remark becomes pointless.  For the vast majority of South Africans, if they haven't been vaccinated, they've already contracted Covid before.

 

Source:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/14/south-africa-previous-infections-may-explain-omicron-hospitalisation-rate

 

[OldPedro]

Who do they think they're fooling? UK daily cases now around 80,000 and only 8 confirmed in Thailand?! Looks like they're out to get the tourists in, whatever the price.....

[Macrohistory]

58 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

In a largely unvaccinated population where the number cases are absolutely skyrocketing (from 17,000 to around 200,000 in 4 weeks).

 

Simply, cases are doing this.

 

 

And deaths are doing this.

 

 

It's clearly far less deadly.

 

Deaths are a lagging indicator.

 

Meanwhile, below is a new report concerning the sort of thing that SARS-CoV-2 can do even when it doesn't kill.  Because Omicron infects far more extensively, many more people will be subject to this kind of risk:

 

 

Medical XPress

 

DECEMBER 14, 2021

SARS-CoV-2 protein interacts with Parkinson's protein, promotes amyloid formation

by  American Chemical Society

The SARS-CoV-2 N-protein can interact with α-synuclein in the test tube and help it form amyloid fibrils, a hallmark of Parkinson's disease. Credit: Adapted from ACS Chemical Neuroscience 2021, DOI: 10.1021/acschemneuro.1c00666

Case reports of relatively young COVID-19 patients who developed Parkinson's disease within weeks of contracting the virus have led scientists to wonder if there could be a link between the two conditions. Now, researchers reporting in ACS Chemical Neuroscience have shown that, at least in the test tube, the SARS-CoV-2 N-protein interacts with a neuronal protein called α-synuclein and speeds the formation of amyloid fibrils, pathological protein bundles that have been implicated in Parkinson's disease...

 

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12-sars-cov-protein-interacts-parkinson-amyloid.html

 

 

[vVDB]

WHO relies on the data that countries are prepared to provide. example

- China which masked the dangerousness of the virus ... on this information the WHO let slip the virus in the whole world.

- the population of South Africa is under 30 on average, it is not the under 30 who fill the hospitals ...

 

Omicron is 3 times more contaminating than Delta. given the difficulty of stopping Delta, it seems impossible to stop Omicron. if Omicron is like Delta there will be 3 times as many people in hospitals.

everything indicates that the two doses of vaccine have a marginal effect on Omicron. we will end up as with the first wave with a virus 40 times more contaminating, it is therefore: COVID-21

 

Double Delta and Omicron infections have been identified. there may be two viruses circulating at the same time like the flu sometimes.

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by vVDB
Add

[JonnyF]

4 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

Deaths are a lagging indicator.

 

That is true. But given how long Omicron has been in South Africa (well over a month) and the incredible rise in cases, the number of deaths remaining low suggests that it is far less deadly, as has also been seen in the UK with only one death "with" Omicron and none (as of yesterday) "from" Omicron.

[JonnyF]

5 minutes ago, vVDB said:

Omicron is 3 times more contaminating than Delta. given the difficulty of stopping Delta, it seems impossible to stop Omicron. if Omicron is like Delta there will be 3 times as many people in hospitals.

The key word being "IF" Omicron is like Delta.

 

All early indications are that is NOT like Delta.

 

 

[khunpa]

13 minutes ago, OldPedro said:

Who do they think they're fooling? UK daily cases now around 80,000 and only 8 confirmed in Thailand?! Looks like they're out to get the tourists in, whatever the price.....

8 cases or 80k cases is irrelevant…

 

Since we all will be infected with Omicron within the next 2-3 month anyway, large amount of testing no longer makes any sense.

 

Thailand seems to be the smartest one right now, by not testing so much.
 

 

[khunpa]

Just now, khunpa said:

8 cases or 80k cases is irrelevant…

 

Since we all will be infected with Omicron within the next 2-3 month anyway, large amount of testing no longer makes any sense.

 

Thailand seems to be the smartest one right now, by not testing so much.
 

From now on, they should only test for mutations.

 

[kiwikeith]

15 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Omicron is a freight train that is going to run into everyone.  That's the bad news.  The good news is it is far less virulent - even the WHO says so.  

Like it or not it's coming and it appears that it hasn't spread to the community yet in Thailand.  I write appears so, but we all know that it has.  There is no stopping this.  

Is this the end of the pandemic, its final wave?  Many virologists say this could be it.  Let's wait and see and hope.  

I remain hopeful.  

Omicron has displaced delta now in SA.

Symptoms less severe, Delta is effectively over in SA here is the latest, just released SA study

https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/news-room

[Bangkok Barry]

7 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Yeah, but isn't that the same organisation that said it was not a pandemic for ages, allowing full Chinese travel and said the virus was nothing to do with a lab leak  ? 

 

Trusts these clowns even less than the current TAT tourist predictions !

The Sunday Times published a very long and detailed article a few weeks ago about how China managed to infiltrate the WHO to ensure any difficult questions would be avoided or ignored. The Chinese government is like a cancer that is infiltrating the very fabric of society in many different ways around the world, be it via massive investment in developing countries, obtaining influential positions in international organisations, student influence in universities and so on.

[vivananahuahin]

- virulent but infect faster, 1 to 4, 4 to 16,16 to 256, you can count after 15 days how much, very interesting to follow the next days.

[Clarkey611]

2 hours ago, RafPinto said:

Maybe Thai Health Minister should travel the world and lecture how Thailand keeps this thing out.

Due to his vaccines, I believe he is having problems getting the necessary visas.

[gungadin1]

The numbers are totally misleading.I don't believe a word anyone says anymore.Someone shot dead yesterday died of covid.utter bs

[monty1412]

7 hours ago, Willy Wombat said:

South Africa is very poorly vaccinated. About 25%.

 

Cases are high but deaths have flatlined with omicron.

 

And I wouldn’t believe the WHO after their pro China bs that let the original virus spread.

totally agree with his.. WHO lost all credibility when that Ethiopian clown who heads it up and is really a China puppet didnt recommend any strong measures on the initial outbreak for fear of putting China offside .....

[Metapod]

its just the flu. you people are insane. at this rate, you will be locked down and wearing masks for the rest of your lives

[sambum]

Maybe the hot winds of Songkran will blow it away?

[Cherrytreeview]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

The key word being "IF" Omicron is like Delta.

 

All early indications are that is NOT like Delta.

 

 

It's simple maths as the UK's Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, said yesterday.

Twice as many cases but only half as sick still gets you back to square one.

A tiny amount of very sick people from a huge population overwhelms a health care system.

Why people don't understand this is beyond me.

Dr David Nabarro of the World Health Organisation. Have a watch.

 

[Bkk Brian]

37 minutes ago, Cherrytreeview said:

It's simple maths as the UK's Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, said yesterday.

Twice as many cases but only half as sick still gets you back to square one.

A tiny amount of very sick people from a huge population overwhelms a health care system.

Why people don't understand this is beyond me.

Dr David Nabarro of the World Health Organisation. Have a watch.

 

About as clear as it can be, thanks for that. I watched it all the way through and then the next video that popped up was the latest from that John Campbell who I never usually watch. However while youtube had my attention as a result of this I watched it. Very somber predictions also coming from him now, mentioning 1 million daily cases in the UK in 2 or 3 weeks.

 

He went through the Discovery Health Study from SA a very large real world study and a report from a doctor there. The doctor thought it was probably not milder, the protection has been from previous infections and vaccinations. The discovery study went into some real figures on outcomes of at least 80,000 Omicron cases so far. Chances of hospitalization up for all age groups including children. 

[Karma80]

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

He added, however, that Thai people should not panic, assuring them that the new variant will be contained quickly.

Please, share your magic with the rest of the world!

Sadly, I suspect the true magic lies with MS Office Excel.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Karma80

[DavisH]

4 hours ago, RafPinto said:

What does Thailand do to keep this Omicron spread very low.
UK is spreading like wildfire.

Maybe Thai Health Minister should travel the world and lecture how Thailand keeps this thing out.

1) Omicron has arrived in the UK earlier than Thailand. 

2) There are almost no controls on the spread of he virus in the UK. 

It will spread in Thailand but at a slower rate, at least intially, as most are still wearing masks. If the numbers rise significantly, ecpect more lockdowns - shut schools and businesses. 

[DavisH]

1 hour ago, Metapod said:

its just the flu. you people are insane. at this rate, you will be locked down and wearing masks for the rest of your lives

No, it's not a flu. It's a coronavirus. Totally different. 

Expect mask wearing until immunity bulids up sufficiently in the population. It may take another 1-3 years. 

[Cherrytreeview]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

About as clear as it can be, thanks for that. I watched it all the way through and then the next video that popped up was the latest from that John Campbell who I never usually watch. However while youtube had my attention as a result of this I watched it. Very somber predictions also coming from him now, mentioning 1 million daily cases in the UK in 2 or 3 weeks.

 

He went through the Discovery Health Study from SA a very large real world study and a report from a doctor there. The doctor thought it was probably not milder, the protection has been from previous infections and vaccinations. The discovery study went into some real figures on outcomes of at least 80,000 Omicron cases so far. Chances of hospitalization up for all age groups including children. 

Yet Nurse Campbell was the "authority" to our resident TVF epidemiologists.

Nurse Campbell say's it's mild blah blah blah.

Even Nurse Campbell realises that a tiny percentage of 1 million cases per day = hospitals under pressure.

A respected UK Doctor. Laughable.

[Kadilo]

4 hours ago, JonnyF said:

In a largely unvaccinated population.

 

Still, one day doesn't really prove anything anyway. In May this year for example, the death figures for 3 days in a row were 90, 311, then 47. It's all over the place. 27 to 54 in one day is not unusual. In November it was 114 one day (25th) and 12 the next day (26th). You can't draw conclusions from a one day spike or drop or on 26th November you'd have concluded it was heading for zero.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

 

“Excess deaths in Gauteng province [the epicentre of the outbreak] remain at almost negligible levels. There is still no strong excess natural mortality signal from Gauteng.

“There has been extensive speculation as to whether there has been a decoupling between infections, hospitalisations and deaths and while we might still benefit from a few more weeks of data, the evidence is certainly pointing that direction,” he said.   
 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/excess-deaths-remain-flat-south-africa-sparking-hope-omicron/

[gejohesch]

10 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

.... Personally I agree fully with what the head of WHO has stated:

 

"Surely, we have learned by now that we underestimate this virus at our peril. Even if Omicron does cause less severe disease, the sheer number of cases could once again overwhelm unprepared health systems," he said.

 

 

That maybe is really the point. Even if Omicron mortality rate is very low (not zero as apparently one death has already be reported in the UK), infected people will burden the health systems worldwide, with collateral issues : non-COVID patients having less access to medical care, workers not able to carry on with their jobs, loss of revenues leading to poverty and increasing debt (causing more suicides), and over-reaction all around the world (governments, airlines etc).

So basically, that is not good news, at least in the short term. Who knows, maybe Omicron will sort of "vaccinate" the world out of the pandemic?

Btw, it seems that there is little immunity against Omicron. Immunity because of previous infection seems to be low (South Africa was previously highly infected). I saw graphs posted on Twitter (forgot the source) that point to significant drops in vaccine effectiveness against Omicron. Moderna and Pfizer staying the most effective, relatively, even after losing a lot, and (most worrying for Thailand?) Sinovac dropping to Zero.

All that picked out of the news around. I'm not an expert.