ICE vs EV, the debate thread

[vinny41]

18 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

No surprise there, as they were primarily going to produce the Neta s.   Since CN put a hold on that, would seem silly for TH to do it on their own.  Without the Neta, makes sense to wait & see, before diving into battery production, as image that would have been for the Neta s also.

I think you will find that Neta had talks with PTT about PTT providing  a factory for building neta cars in Thailand 

In the end Neta selected a different company

NETA's EV manufacturing plant in Thailand is a collaboration between NETA and Bangchan General Assembly Co., Ltd.

https://www.neta.co.th/en/news/brands-pr-news/NETAproductioninThailand

 

Neta V” is not an EV brand “PTT” “Arun Plus” moves forward with a complete production plant

https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/auto/1038676

So the planned new factory was for Arun Plus PTT own brand of EV 

[atpeace]

12 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Currently YOY ev registrations for 2024 for period 1st January 2024 to 31st October 2024 are 59,327 an increase of 2.159% over same period in 2023

 ev registrations for same period 2023 numbers are 58,074

EV sales for the whole of 2023 was approx 90,000

EV sales for 2024 currently are 45,674 

We will have to wait and see if 45,000 ev are sold between November 1st and 31st December 2024

problem I see if your buying a new car that costs B1 million baht do you buy when launched at B1 million or do you wait for 1st priice reduction after 7-8 months and buy at B750,000 or do you wait for 15 months and buy at 50% price reduction of B500,000 

https://autolifethailand.tv/total-ev-bev-register-2023-thailand/

https://autolifethailand.tv/ev-register-oct-2024-thailand/

I'm sure your numbers are correct and definitely a  buyer's market if you are not in a rush.  The numbers I posted were from the article the poster I replied to linked.  Used cars are even a better deal IMO.

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

I took this graphic from the EV Club Thailand group on Facebook.

 

It’s fairly clear EV market share is increasing substantially and this can only mean the ICE market share is decreasing.  
 

I thought I better post it as it’s clear young Vinny is either not able or capable.

 

 

Here is the full graphic from  EV Club Thailand group on Facebook. which shows 2023 and 2024  registration figures and market share

number of EV sales in 2023 was approx 90,000 and December sales are shown in January 2024 ev registration numbers

Edited 7 hours ago by vinny41
add

[atpeace]

42 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I think you must be smoking something strong if you  think  the EV market share is increasing substantially based on those numbers I don't think the EV brand manufacturers would agree with you since if demand was outstripping supply I am not aware of any industry that if demand was greater than supply would feel the need to resort to price reductions to increase their sales

As previously stated many times before EV were available ICEV had 100% market share so it only takes to sell 1 EV for ICE vehicles market share  to be  decreasing.  

As for your request to do the research I chosed the option if you want the figures you should provide them yourself and you would have found it takes a lot of time and effort

where looking at 2 links from 2023 and 2024 on Ev registrations took approx 2 minutes

Fair enough but what is the trend over the last 5-10 years?  I think you would agree that there are many variables that have a large impact on ICE and EV sales.  You can pick cherry pick a geographic region or a period of time but that is disingenuous.  Car sales are down in 2024 as a whole( EV numbers are slightly up), no EV incentives, and the economy is struggling just to name a few variables.

 

Passenger car sales in Thailand have had huge swings over the last 2 decades. Some years dropping 20% yet EV sales are still growing ( not by much ) this year when ICE sales down substantially.  Car manufacturing was down ~ 17% the first 6 months of this year!

 

I'm still not convinced EVs will dominate the passenger car market in the coming decades but is sure seems likely.  When EVs have 600-1000 km range as the norm, they are cheaper, and the charging network improves, do you really think ICE will be the vehicle of choice for most (not all) buyers?  

 

I force myself to look at the EV revolution with doubt.  There is quite a bit of positive data but will the current batteries last 10-20 years? I like real world ownership data and at this point that isn't available.  I decided on an entry level EV and still have my truck.  The truck is great to load up with trash but that is all I use it for now. 

 

The EV is free to drive and now I drive MUCH more because it is free. Camping will be great during the heat of the day when I can draw 3000 watts from the car to run an AC and power electroncis. Already have a LFP battery and don't need PEA but if shtt happens with my system I have a car that could power my house for days.  Down the road I'm sure there will be things that need to be replaced but so far it has been a wonderful experience.

 

I have too much time on my hands to ramble 🙂

[KhunLA]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

I think you must be smoking something strong if you  think  the EV market share is increasing substantially based on those numbers I don't think the EV brand manufacturers would agree with you since if demand was outstripping supply I am not aware of any industry that if demand was greater than supply would feel the need to resort to price reductions to increase their sales

As previously stated many times before EV were available ICEV had 100% market share so it only takes to sell 1 EV for ICE vehicles market share  to be  decreasing.  

As for your request to do the research I chosed the option if you want the figures you should provide them yourself and you would have found it takes a lot of time and effort

where looking at 2 links from 2023 and 2024 on Ev registrations took approx 2 minutes

I must be smokin' the same buds, and some tasty buds they are.

 

I'm actually amazed the auto sales haven't come to a grinding halt, the past few years, let alone increased the way they have.   Well, the one sector anyway.

 

EV sales especially since 2022, considering the economic hardship many endured since 2020.  Would expect new and or 2nd vehicles would be way low on the expense budget of most.  They are in good times, let alone after so many impacted by that 'situation', especially if you relied on the tourist industry for income.

 

In two years, they, BEVs & Hybird are now everywhere, with a charging network to support them.   Two major manufacturers from CN, opening dealerships in all the major markets, joining MG's network, of making EVs available basically everywhere now.

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

I think you must be smoking something strong if you  think  the EV market share is increasing substantially based on those numbers I don't think the EV brand manufacturers would agree with you since if demand was outstripping supply I am not aware of any industry that if demand was greater than supply would feel the need to resort to price reductions to increase their sales

As previously stated many times before EV were available ICEV had 100% market share so it only takes to sell 1 EV for ICE vehicles market share  to be  decreasing.  

As for your request to do the research I chosed the option if you want the figures you should provide them yourself and you would have found it takes a lot of time and effort

where looking at 2 links from 2023 and 2024 on Ev registrations took approx 2 minutes

 

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Here is the full graphic from  EV Club Thailand group on Facebook. which shows 2023 and 2024  registration figures and market share

number of EV sales in 2023 was approx 90,000 and December sales are shown in January 2024 ev registration numbers

Forget the absolute numbers, it doesn’t tell you trends. 
 

Look at market share percentages.

 

Please don’t reply to this Vinny, you’ve made your point and I’ve made mine, let’s agree to differ, nobody wants to see you drag this on and on.

[vinny41]

30 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Fair enough but what is the trend over the last 5-10 years?  I think you would agree that there are many variables that have a large impact on ICE and EV sales.  You can pick cherry pick a geographic region or a period of time but that is disingenuous.  Car sales are down in 2024 as a whole( EV numbers are slightly up), no EV incentives, and the economy is struggling just to name a few variables.

 

Passenger car sales in Thailand have had huge swings over the last 2 decades. Some years dropping 20% yet EV sales are still growing ( not by much ) this year when ICE sales down substantially.  Car manufacturing was down ~ 17% the first 6 months of this year!

 

I'm still not convinced EVs will dominate the passenger car market in the coming decades but is sure seems likely.  When EVs have 600-1000 km range as the norm, they are cheaper, and the charging network improves, do you really think ICE will be the vehicle of choice for most (not all) buyers?  

 

I force myself to look at the EV revolution with doubt.  There is quite a bit of positive data but will the current batteries last 10-20 years? I like real world ownership data and at this point that isn't available.  I decided on an entry level EV and still have my truck.  The truck is great to load up with trash but that is all I use it for now. 

 

The EV is free to drive and now I drive MUCH more because it is free. Camping will be great during the heat of the day when I can draw 3000 watts from the car to run an AC and power electroncis. Already have a LFP battery and don't need PEA but if shtt happens with my system I have a car that could power my house for days.  Down the road I'm sure there will be things that need to be replaced but so far it has been a wonderful experience.

 

I have too much time on my hands to ramble 🙂

There are still various subsidies in place for EV for this year until the end of 2027 under the BEV 3.5 incentive policy they are divided into 2 sections

1) Passenger Bev For both imported and locally assembled passenger BEVs based on battery sizes and price

2)  For BEV pick-up trucks and e-motorcycles (locally assembled ones only): for pick-up trucks based on weight price and battery size

Passenger Bev subsidy is reducing each year while Thailand built  BEV pick-up trucks and e-motorcycles for subsidy remains the same for the period 2024- until end of 2027

This article contains all the details on the various subsidies 

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/technical/tax-alerts/thailand---subsidies--duties--excise-tax-incentives-to-encourage

The entire car market in Thailand has changed 

in the case of the used car market there has been huge increase over the past 2 years of repossessions which has had an knock on affect to the used car market due to oversupply of additional cars entering the used car market and banks and finance companies selling those vehicles for whatever they are offered and then going after the original purchaser or the guarantor if the sale of the vehicle doesn't cover the outstanding balance

when we look at car buyers in Thailand they should be divided into 2 groups

Expats and Thai

Majority of expats normally pay for their vehicles in cash while the majority of Thai nationals tend to finance their vehicle purchase

Some Thai nationals will pay cash and likewise some expats will pay for their vehicles via finance however I supect they are in the  minority

 

In the past people would keep their vehicles for 4/5 years received a reasonable trade in value for their vehicle and used that for the down payment on a new vehicle Banks and finance  companies are now asking for down payments of between 25% upwards as they are concerned about NPL (  repossessions )

I have seen many reports in the facebook groups of people deciding to keep their existing vehicles longer due to the low offer they have received on their trade-ins

over the next few years we should find out how long batteries last as between this year and 2032 there are over 20 million ev's in china where there battery warranty has ended 

 

Nio's William Li urges more focus on battery life as warranties expire on nearly 20 million NEVs over next 8 years

Li said batteries with lifetimes of up to 15 years are technically feasible, but it will take a concerted effort by the entire industry to advance the goal.

https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/17/nio-william-li-urges-more-focus-on-battery-life/

In the USA Nissan has started a buyback scheme as batteries are failing within the 8 year warranty period and Nissan are having problems sourcing replacement batteries with some owners reporting waiting for 12 months or longer 

 

Just received a call from Nissan offering a repurchase for my 2016 SV Nissan leaf 30kwh, said new battery might take 6 months to a year, has anyone with the same vehicle taken the repurchase ? Mine currently has 98,000 miles and is in a good overall condition. If yes to my question could you tell me how much was your repurchase offer ? Or any idea how much is worth ? I'm in USA Texas

https://www.facebook.com/groups/NissanLeafOwners/posts/7030862667011662/

 

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

There are still various subsidies in place for EV for this year until the end of 2027 under the BEV 3.5 incentive policy they are divided into 2 sections

1) Passenger Bev For both imported and locally assembled passenger BEVs based on battery sizes and price

2)  For BEV pick-up trucks and e-motorcycles (locally assembled ones only): for pick-up trucks based on weight price and battery size

Passenger Bev subsidy is reducing each year while Thailand built  BEV pick-up trucks and e-motorcycles for subsidy remains the same for the period 2024- until end of 2027

This article contains all the details on the various subsidies 

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/technical/tax-alerts/thailand---subsidies--duties--excise-tax-incentives-to-encourage

The entire car market in Thailand has changed 

in the case of the used car market there has been huge increase over the past 2 years of repossessions which has had an knock on affect to the used car market due to oversupply of additional cars entering the used car market and banks and finance companies selling those vehicles for whatever they are offered and then going after the original purchaser or the guarantor if the sale of the vehicle doesn't cover the outstanding balance

when we look at car buyers in Thailand they should be divided into 2 groups

Expats and Thai

Majority of expats normally pay for their vehicles in cash while the majority of Thai nationals tend to finance their vehicle purchase

Some Thai nationals will pay cash and likewise some expats will pay for their vehicles via finance however I supect they are in the  minority

 

In the past people would keep their vehicles for 4/5 years received a reasonable trade in value for their vehicle and used that for the down payment on a new vehicle Banks and finance  companies are now asking for down payments of between 25% upwards as they are concerned about NPL (  repossessions )

I have seen many reports in the facebook groups of people deciding to keep their existing vehicles longer due to the low offer they have received on their trade-ins

over the next few years we should find out how long batteries last as between this year and 2032 there are over 20 million ev's in china where there battery warranty has ended 

 

Nio's William Li urges more focus on battery life as warranties expire on nearly 20 million NEVs over next 8 years

Li said batteries with lifetimes of up to 15 years are technically feasible, but it will take a concerted effort by the entire industry to advance the goal.

https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/17/nio-william-li-urges-more-focus-on-battery-life/

In the USA Nissan has started a buyback scheme as batteries are failing within the 8 year warranty period and Nissan are having problems sourcing replacement batteries with some owners reporting waiting for 12 months or longer 

 

Just received a call from Nissan offering a repurchase for my 2016 SV Nissan leaf 30kwh, said new battery might take 6 months to a year, has anyone with the same vehicle taken the repurchase ? Mine currently has 98,000 miles and is in a good overall condition. If yes to my question could you tell me how much was your repurchase offer ? Or any idea how much is worth ? I'm in USA Texas

https://www.facebook.com/groups/NissanLeafOwners/posts/7030862667011662/

 

 

 

I didn’t understand your last post Vinny, could you explain it in more detail, please?

[vinny41]

37 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I didn’t understand your last post Vinny, could you explain it in more detail, please?

As you have previously mentioned both your daughters are in University I am sure they can explain the post if you don't understand

 I am sure the Chinese shareholders and the fully paid up ev influencers reading this forum understood my post 

Edited 1 hour ago by vinny41
add

[JBChiangRai]

19 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

As you have previously mentioned both your daughters are in University I am sure they can explain the post if you don't understand

 I am sure the Chinese shareholders and the fully paid up ev influencers reading this forum understood my post 

I’m sure my daughters could explain your thesis, but they are ‘hard at it’ studying at Payap University while I have to slum it in my Executive Suite at the Dusit Princess Hotel on Phu Quoc. Please sympathize with me.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by JBChiangRai
Being a Gloating Goat (c) EOW

[vinny41]

20 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I’m sure my daughters could explain your thesis, but they are ‘hard at it’ studying at Payap University while I have to slum it in my Executive Suite at the Dusit Princess Hotel on Phu Quoc. Please sympathize with me.

 

 

Are you testing out your favorite brand of EV since they have delayed their launch in Thailand

VinFast Secures Top Market Position in Vietnam

Hanoi, November 12, 2024 – VinFast announced it has delivered more than 11,000 electric vehicles (EVs) to domestic customers in October, bringing its total sales since the beginning of the year to over 51,000 EVs. This positions VinFast as the best-selling automotive brand in the Vietnamese market for October and the first ten months of 2024. VinFast is confident in maintaining its domestic leadership and contributing to the green transition of Vietnam’s transportation sector.

Following strong sales in September 2024, VinFast continued its momentum in October by delivering more than 11,000 EVs—a 21% increase over the previous month. The VF 3 and VF 5 were the top-selling models, with nearly 5,000 EVs and over 2,600 EVs sold, respectively.

https://vinfastauto.us/investor-relations/news/vinfast-secures-top-market-position-in-vietnam#:~:text=Hanoi

[JBChiangRai]

VinFast are rubbish, there are hundreds of them here, but they are all Taxis