Thailand’s household debt forecast to jump to 95% of GDP this year

[snoop1130]

In this photo taken on January 16, 2022, people eat at roadside food stalls in the Chinatown area of Bangkok. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

 

The average household debt in Thailand has increased 5.09% year on year, to 217,952.59 baht, the highest in 14 years, and this year the debt may reach 95% of the gross domestic product (GDP), according to the forecast of theCentre for Economic and Business Forecasting of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

 

The centre recently conducted a survey of 1,260 union workers, who each earns less than 15,000 baht a month, between April 18th and 24th, and found out that 99% of them are indebted.

 

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According to the survey, most are bogged down with credit card and rental debts, because their incomes are insufficient and about 31.5% have defaulted on repayments.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-household-debt-forecast-to-jump-to-95-of-gdp-this-year/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2022-04-29

 

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[StayinThailand2much]

45 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

The centre recently conducted a survey of 1,260 union workers, who each earns less than 15,000 baht a month, between April 18th and 24th, and found out that 99% of them are indebted.

From my own observations, many Thais seem to have trouble budgeting, with the salary being spent 2-3 weeks after payday. Can people live on 15,000 baht salary? - Apartment: 6,000 baht, food and transportation: 7,500 baht, clothes/household items: 1,500 baht... (A new car, designer clothes, and a new iPhone every 6 months? - Probably not, so why do banks lend so much money to average salary earners, supporting that people live beyond their means? How can they ever repay all these loans?)

Edited April 29, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[DezLez]

42 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

 Can people live on 15,000 baht salary? - Apartment: 6,000 baht, food and transportation: 7,500 baht, clothes/household items: 1,500 baht... (A new car, designer clothes, and a new iPhone every 6 months? 

I think they are referencing Thai "Union workers" financial behaviour , not Farang!

Edited April 29, 2022 by DezLez

[bkk6060]

All Thais I know are in debt.

Not unusual for them to pay 30 to even 50% on a car payment.  Seems credit checks/restrictions for large purchases are non existent here.

[StayinThailand2much]

17 minutes ago, DezLez said:

"Apartment: 6,000 baht, food and transportation: 7,500 baht, clothes/household items: 1,500 baht... (A new car, designer clothes, and a new iPhone every 6 months?"

 

I think they are referencing Thai financial behaviour , not Farang!

I see many Thais sharing the rent, so 6,000 baht is plenty, and what average Thai spends more than 250 baht/day for eating out? So, unless they dine on filet mignon all the time, it should be sufficient.

 

Of course, I didn't figure in online gambling, buying lottery tickets, excessive cosmetic purchases, and expensive holidays. So, am I missing something why Thais constantly have to live beyond their means?

Edited April 29, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[StayinThailand2much]

17 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

All Thais I know are in debt.

Not unusual for them to pay 30 to even 50% on a car payment.  Seems credit checks/restrictions for large purchases are non existent here.

My point, how can banks give car loans to people who only make 12-15,000 baht a month? And structuring loan agreements so that the debtor has to pay 50% of his salary for loan payments is unheard of in other countries.

Edited April 29, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[Willy Wombat]

Is the guy on the right in the photo going to do a bit of spray painting ?

[Excel]

17 minutes ago, DezLez said:

+1

It was that Thailand is heading towards outbreaks of thundery showers and indebtedness roughly translated.????

[PJ71]

Thais do not care about debt.

[bigupandchill]

29 minutes ago, Willy Wombat said:

Is the guy on the right in the photo going to do a bit of spray painting ?

He also has 3 feet 

[DezLez]

4 minutes ago, bigupandchill said:

He also has 3 feet 

Of what?

[metisdead]

A rather incoherent post has been removed as well as the inflammatory bickering replies. 

[JimHuaHin]

12 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

My point, how can banks give car loans to people who only make 12-15,000 baht a month? And structuring loan agreements so that the debtor has to pay 50% of his salary for loan payments is unheard of in other countries.

 

12 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

My point, how can banks give car loans to people who only make 12-15,000 baht a month? And structuring loan agreements so that the debtor has to pay 50% of his salary for loan payments is unheard of in other countries.

The answer to your question is - yes.

 

The response to your comment is  - TIT.

[RichardColeman]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The centre recently conducted a survey of 1,260 union workers, who each earns less than 15,000 baht a month, between April 18th and 24th, and found out that 99% of them are indebted.

But but, NPL are so small..............someone's telling porkies on the NPL's I think for fear of dragging the teflon down 

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Of course, I didn't figure in online gambling, buying lottery tickets, excessive cosmetic purchases, and expensive holidays. So, am I missing something why Thais constantly have to live beyond their means?

IMHO you're missing quite a lot.

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, Willy Wombat said:

Is the guy on the right in the photo going to do a bit of spray painting ?

Nah, just PPE against cooking smells.

[Sydebolle]

Get some ear protection; this place is to implode one day in not too distant future 8-) 

[Cake Monster]

17 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

I see many Thais sharing the rent, so 6,000 baht is plenty, and what average Thai spends more than 250 baht/day for eating out? So, unless they dine on filet mignon all the time, it should be sufficient.

 

Of course, I didn't figure in online gambling, buying lottery tickets, excessive cosmetic purchases, and expensive holidays. So, am I missing something why Thais constantly have to live beyond their means?

You are missing the fact that the Banking system is all too readily available for another loan.

Young Couple I know recently just bought a small House.

Cost 1,700,000

Bank repayment over 40 years 9,700 Baht per Month = 4,656,000

They are both aged about 35 now, so should be paying back the Money to the age of about 75.

The problem is, is that they both have fairly decent Jobs that pay fairly good with overtime available most weeks.

In 15 Years or so, if they still work for the same Company, they are likely to be laid off, and replaced with younger staff.

How will they pay the Loan off then ?

 

[Isaan sailor]

Go to any mall in Isaan—any day of the week.  You will see late model cars jammed into the shaded parking areas.  Wife says they’re on credit—both the cars and their mall purchases.

[StayinThailand2much]

3 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

(...) Young Couple I know recently just bought a small House.

Cost 1,700,000

Bank repayment over 40 years 9,700 Baht per Month = 4,656,000

They are both aged about 35 now, so should be paying back the Money to the age of about 75 (...)

Ridiculous! That shows how inept bank staff is in Thailand! Do they really think that the couple will still work in their job at 75? Thailand's retirement age is 60, and with a good reason, as many at 60 look 'spent'. - A banking crisis in Thailand is IMHO not a question of 'if', but 'when'...

Edited April 30, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[Cake Monster]

13 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Ridiculous! That shows how inept bank staff is in Thailand! Do they really think that the couple will still work in their job at 75? Thailand's retirement age is 60, and with a good reason, as many at 60 look 'spent'. - A banking crisis in Thailand is IMHO not a question of 'if', but 'when'...

Oh ! I forgot to mention that the loan was taken out with only a 99 Baht deposit.

And yes, its an insane system that lends on such parameters.

[BritManToo]

5 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

You are missing the fact that the Banking system is all too readily available for another loan.

Young Couple I know recently just bought a small House.

Cost 1,700,000

Bank repayment over 40 years 9,700 Baht per Month = 4,656,000

They are both aged about 35 now, so should be paying back the Money to the age of about 75.

The problem is, is that they both have fairly decent Jobs that pay fairly good with overtime available most weeks.

In 15 Years or so, if they still work for the same Company, they are likely to be laid off, and replaced with younger staff.

How will they pay the Loan off then ?

 

Seems expensive, my mortgage was 1.5M on a 1.8M house and the repayments are 9k/month over 27 years.

[BritManToo]

23 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

My point, how can banks give car loans to people who only make 12-15,000 baht a month? And structuring loan agreements so that the debtor has to pay 50% of his salary for loan payments is unheard of in other countries.

Living expenses are a lot less of your wage here than in the UK.

So they can lend more of your wage.

Edited April 30, 2022 by BritManToo

[2 is 1]

8 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Go to any mall in Isaan—any day of the week.  You will see late model cars jammed into the shaded parking areas.  Wife says they’re on credit—both the cars and their mall purchases.

Thailand dont have policy about down payment's when purchase car. Almost whitout any firt deposit you can get brand new car out from shop. Ofcourse whit many picture from dealer ceremony when they give you new car. And if you not pay back they just take car back. And Thailand dont have any kind of credit reference register IMO, where check is that really wise to give somebody credit to buy car. Other hand in Thainland you can deposit 10 million bth cash money in your account and nobody dont ask where the money is from. That is how they supervise black market's money in LOS. Money laundry is easy if you are Thai.

[SoilSpoil]

6 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Ridiculous! That shows how inept bank staff is in Thailand! Do they really think that the couple will still work in their job at 75? Thailand's retirement age is 60, and with a good reason, as many at 60 look 'spent'. - A banking crisis in Thailand is IMHO not a question of 'if', but 'when'...

A Thai friend of mine, 49 yeats old, just got a 4 million 30 year mortgage on a 5 million home. He paid 1 million upfront and borrowed 4m. He's planning to pay back in 10 years, and if not he'll be paying till he is 79. I couldnt believe it, but it really happened. it was asy for him to get a mortgage. Go figure.

[Mr Meeseeks]

1 hour ago, 2 is 1 said:

Thailand dont have policy about down payment's when purchase car. Almost whitout any firt deposit you can get brand new car out from shop. Ofcourse whit many picture from dealer ceremony when they give you new car. And if you not pay back they just take car back. And Thailand dont have any kind of credit reference register IMO, where check is that really wise to give somebody credit to buy car. Other hand in Thainland you can deposit 10 million bth cash money in your account and nobody dont ask where the money is from. That is how they supervise black market's money in LOS. Money laundry is easy if you are Thai.

Nonsense.

 

Thai lenders always perform credit checks on persons looking for lease finance on vehicles.

[Walker88]

I'm not so sure there isn't a worldwide banking crisis at the moment, and Thailand certainly has one of its own. (The EU also does....a matter for another article, but suffice it to say a banking system 3 times GDP, and a Sword of Damocles resulting from the way Draghi 'solved' the debt crisis gives me the willies).

 

That number "31.5%" related to folks who have defaulted on payments is astonishing. The ease of getting credit is also why about 1 in 15 cars on the road are Mercs.

 

I've looked over the numbers, and while this article is about households, the corporate sector in Thailand added debt well in excess of GDP growth since 2010, which says the 'Boom' in Thailand was just a debt-fueled bubble.

 

Then along came Covid. There are long periods of 'debt moratorium', so banks did not have to note NPLs. Banks also were given the option of recording 'imputed interest', which means they could run debt payments through the income statement even if borrowers didn't actually pay. Thus, bank profits are likely bogus.

 

I read an article sometime ago that a new law allows banks to buy asset management and debt restructuring companies, which is really just a way for banks to move bad debt off the parent's books on to these new entities, which likely will not have to be consolidated.

 

All of this should give one pause. It also suggests why suddenly the authorities are so anxious to restart tourism, Covid be damned. There is likely not sufficient domestic demand capability to create the growth needed to service existing debt, so the only alternative is to attract capital from outside. Tourism is one source, so now the powers that be are anxious to get that back on track.

 

As I noted at the start, Thailand is not along in facing a looming debt crisis, as easy credit and Covid have hit just about every country. putin's war of aggression isn't going to help matters.

 

Batten down the hatches.

 

[Orinoco]

On 4/29/2022 at 7:25 PM, PJ71 said:

Thais do not care about debt.

Two words too many in that sentence.

[BangkokReady]

14 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Seems expensive, my mortgage was 1.5M on a 1.8M house and the repayments are 9k/month over 27 years.

Is that all in the wife/partner's name and you pay, or do they check your finances too?

[BangkokReady]

On 4/29/2022 at 6:48 PM, StayinThailand2much said:

So, am I missing something why Thais constantly have to live beyond their means?

Lack of education, living only in "the now", insane need to show "face", etc..