What is your plan when China invades Taiwan?

[placnx]

On 6/6/2022 at 3:03 PM, sandyf said:

Not to the same extent, Taiwan does not contribute to the world food basket in the same way as Ukraine.

It would also be a completely different scenario, Taiwan is not a sovereign country and officially still belongs to China so any invasion would effectively be a civil war.

In view of the way China has reclaimed control of Hong Kong it is probably a question of when rather than if.

Keeping Taiwan out of Chinese control is strategically very important because around 85% of advanced semiconductors are made there. For the West that is just as important as the food shortage caused by the blockade of Ukraine's ports.

 

It would be very difficult for Taiwan to defend itself in the near term for the reasons noted by @GammaGlobulin in his/her first post.

[Hummin]

1 minute ago, KhunLA said:

NATO is useless in S China Sea.  OZ is there, that's about it.  You think anyone else in the region wants to pis China off.   I doubt if even Thailand would assist, let USA use airbases.  Not that they would need to, having 4 CSGs in the area.

If you remember the coalition when Iraq invaded Kuwait? It was not a NATO operation, and already allies is patrolling with American navy around the world as we speak, and also ready to support American bases around the world and assist if there will be an wider conflict.

[Dan O]

On 6/6/2022 at 7:44 AM, GammaGlobulin said:

How many of the posters who have commented above know anything about....  草莓族 ?

 

 草莓族 (The Strawberry Generation/Strawberry Tribe)

 

The Strawberry Generation in Taiwan are milquetoast.

 

How many years, for example, has anyone here spent in Taiwan?

 

10 years?

20 years?

30 years?

 

How many?

 

Tell me.

 

IF China were to mount an attack against Taiwan, then, the MILQUETOAST Strawberries would fall like the hothouse plants which we know they are.

 

Taiwan is hiding under the US umbrella, at the moment.

 

This is a symbiotic relationship which is good for the world, as well.

 

But, I have never met a man in Taiwan who could stand up to a man from Dongbei.

 

The ONLY way that Taiwan will be able to defend itself is if all weapons are fully robotic, and controlled using AI.

 

The fighting man of Taiwan is nonexistent.

 

Taiwan, these days, is totally undertested, and full of children of dead soldier who retreated to Formosa, decades ago.

 

Anyway, for sure....

 

Thinking that Taiwan could, in any way, defend itself against a Chinese invasion is just ridiculous.

 

Also, the Taiwanese democracy, and the Taiwanese political situation, is sort of like a cartoon.  It is not real.

 

There is no way that Taiwan would exist, today, without the force of the US.

The US needs Taiwan, for sure.

 

But, almost everything about Taiwan is a complete JOKE....except...for.....  TSMC

 

Long live TSMC.

 

Otherwise, Taiwan is a joke, both politically and militarily, and in most other respects, as well.

 

I need to keep this short.

Or, otherwise, I might wish to make a few other valid criticisms here.

No where near accurate in your summation on a number of points  here but believe what you want  

[TropicalGuy]

3 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

NATO is useless in S China Sea.  OZ is there, that's about it.  You think anyone else in the region wants to pis China off.   I doubt if even Thailand would assist, let USA use airbases.  Not that they would need to, having 4 CSGs in the area.

Clueless. Taiwan protected by invincible Pacific Alliance who will Obliterate CCP Invasion Force in hours. USA Japan Taiwan S. Korea AUS UK.????????

CCP caged by Geography & Enemy.

Taiwan irreplaceable link in 1st Island Chain. Research It. 

 

Really looks like CCP will go for it though to distract from imminent internal economic collapse. World can then Cancel All China Debt as Repatations for Covid.????????

[ThaiFelix]

On 6/5/2022 at 10:30 PM, Kenny202 said:

I was always under the impression China was driven by $$$$ cloaked in ideology.

Of course this is plainly obvious to everybody...well nearly everybody.  Otherwise China would still be playing the pure communist ideology instead of the semi capitalist ideology currently practised.

 

This is pure propaganda from that most paranoid of countries I'm sure.

[placnx]

23 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I have never been to Taiwan. Even if I had been there for many years, as a foreigner I would not presume to know the thoughts of the average citizen, or the inner councils of the military establishment there. Instead, I would be looking at what is happening, and how that is influencing CCP thinking as to an invasion of Taiwan.

 

Ukraine effectively has had only three years to prepare for a Russian invasion, after Zelensky took over from Poroshenko, a Kremlin ally. Taiwan has had 70 years.

 

The CCP would be looking at how a under-prepared, militarily-inferior nation is mauling one of the supposed best armies in the world to a standstill, and taking out Russian generals in the process. It would quite rightly conclude Western technology is aiding the Ukrainians in decimating Russian armor and air support.

 

It would also be considering logistics. When the Allies invaded Normandy, they did it with air superiority and control of the sea, across about 170 km of water. Xi is a student of history, he would know getting an armada across the same distance with no guarantee of air superiority, or with multiple silent nuclear submarines waiting in ambush, the butcher’s bill would be unacceptable in terms of equipment alone.

 

Then there are sanctions. Russian GDP according to their own forecasters will fall by about 10%. China’s GDP falling by the same amount would cause a revolution. The CCP has enough problems as it is with the property sector without sanctions in the mix. Not to mention cities in pandemic lockdown are struggling to get enough meat, rice and fish.

 

China is utterly dependent on other countries to feed its population, it is the world’s biggest food importer. An interdict of shipping and ban on Chinese exports would be disastrous.

 

IMO unless Xi has a rush of blood to the head like Putin, the probability of an invasion of Taiwan is very small. The lessons of Ukraine are too stark.

 

You are the optimist. Xi is a gambler.

 

Taiwan is woefully unprepared, while Ukraine has been fighting the Russians since 2014. The Chinese air force is much superior to Taiwan's, and China could well employ stealth to disable Taiwan's defenses such as radar sites.

 

As for sanctions, with the supply of high-end semiconductors under Xi's control, the world would be at his mercy. Why would food producers such as Brazil block food deliveries to China? China might stop buying iron ore from Brazil.

 

PS. Poroshenko is not a Kremlin ally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_Poroshenko

[placnx]

21 minutes ago, TropicalGuy said:

Really looks like CCP will go for it though to distract from imminent internal economic collapse. World can then Cancel All China Debt as Repatations for Covid.

Apparently what you mean is that Chinese holdings of reserve currencies would be confiscated (as happened to Russia).

[Will B Good]

This thread has now been locked as far too many members find it interesting and there are far too many comments.

[TropicalGuy]

41 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

This thread has now been locked as far too many members find it interesting and there are far too many comments.

Declared as Flame ????Troll  ???? Post spreading Misinformation without Links. 

[TropicalGuy]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

Apparently what you mean is that Chinese holdings of reserve currencies would be confiscated (as happened to Russia).

That as Well plus Assets Frozen.
Get It All from these murdering gangsters with first move on Taiwan. 

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

You are the optimist. Xi is a gambler.

 

Taiwan is woefully unprepared, while Ukraine has been fighting the Russians since 2014. The Chinese air force is much superior to Taiwan's, and China could well employ stealth to disable Taiwan's defenses such as radar sites.

 

As for sanctions, with the supply of high-end semiconductors under Xi's control, the world would be at his mercy. Why would food producers such as Brazil block food deliveries to China? China might stop buying iron ore from Brazil.

 

PS. Poroshenko is not a Kremlin ally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_Poroshenko

How do you know Taiwan is unprepared, do you sit in on the planning meetings of their military?

 

As the Ukrainian war has shown, modern shoulder-fired missiles are leveling the playing field. Russia has a superior air force to Ukraine, not doing them much good, is it?

 

China's biggest food import is soybeans, guess where that comes from? Hint: from China's biggest customer.

 

Silicon Valley outsources the manufacture of high-end semiconductors to Taiwan, there is nothing to say the US could not bring that capacity back home.

 

My mistake, Poroshenko is an oligarch, which led me to think he is cut from the same cloth as the Russians.

[TropicalGuy]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

You are the optimist. Xi is a gambler.

 

Taiwan is woefully unprepared, while Ukraine has been fighting the Russians since 2014. The Chinese air force is much superior to Taiwan's, and China could well employ stealth to disable Taiwan's defenses such as radar sites.

 

As for sanctions, with the supply of high-end semiconductors under Xi's control, the world would be at his mercy. Why would food producers such as Brazil block food deliveries to China? China might stop buying iron ore from Brazil.

 

PS. Poroshenko is not a Kremlin ally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_Poroshenko

CCP Invasion Force would not get within 100km of Taiwan before Annihilation.

Taiwan part of Pacific / 1st Island Chain Alliance, the invincible anti- CCP “NATO” of East Asia. USA Japan Taiwan S. Korea AUS + UK FRA. 
 

[TropicalGuy]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

Keeping Taiwan out of Chinese control is strategically very important because around 85% of advanced semiconductors are made there. For the West that is just as important as the food shortage caused by the blockade of Ukraine's ports.

 

It would be very difficult for Taiwan to defend itself in the near term for the reasons noted by @GammaGlobulin in his/her first post.

1st para: True

2nd para: False. Taiwan has Allies. 

[TropicalGuy]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

You are the optimist. Xi is a gambler.

 

Taiwan is woefully unprepared, while Ukraine has been fighting the Russians since 2014. The Chinese air force is much superior to Taiwan's, and China could well employ stealth to disable Taiwan's defenses such as radar sites.

 

As for sanctions, with the supply of high-end semiconductors under Xi's control, the world would be at his mercy. Why would food producers such as Brazil block food deliveries to China? China might stop buying iron ore from Brazil.

 

PS. Poroshenko is not a Kremlin ally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_Poroshenko

CCP China is “unprepared” to get obliterated in any Taiwan invasion attempt. ????????

[TropicalGuy]

On 6/6/2022 at 5:41 PM, Baron Samedi said:

In case China attacks, I've got a plan.... ????

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpQNw46Sl24

 

Beat me to it. Ringside Seat for CCP invasion force annihilation.????????????

[Adumbration]

There will be grave consequences for the Australian and New Zealand economies.  USA will demand OZ and NZ cease all exports to China 5 minutes after things kick off.  It would be logistically impossible to sail boats loads full of cattle, sheep, coal and iron ore across the SCS anyway.

 

The RBA raised rates .5% today and will continue to do so each and every month moving forward.  The Australian residential property market is the biggest bubble on the planet.  When China moves on Taiwan, the Australian economy is toast and the AUD will be heading for 50-55 cents on the USD.

 

The posters who are debating whether it will or will not happend are just wasting their energy typing.

 

China will, absolutely, move on Taiwan.  What we need to be discussing in this thread is what we are going to do to get our ducks in a row as best we can.

 

Interestingly one poster said that Laos and Cambodia wil side with China, but did not mention Thailand.  LOS is one of the belt and rail debtors and if the current junta is still in place they will side with the CCP.  When Thailand sides with China, at best western expats can expect to have their visas cancelled.

 

 

Edited June 7, 2022 by Adumbration

[Hummin]

2 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Interestingly one poster said that Laos and Cambodia wil side with China, but did not mention Thailand.  LOS is one of the belt and rail debtors and if the current junta is still in place they will side with the CCP.

Thailand will follow the wind, and most likely you are right

[Adumbration]

1 hour ago, Will B Good said:

This thread has now been locked as far too many members find it interesting and there are far too many comments.

Threads don't need to be locked anymore.  You can't read comments anyway because they are covered with pop up ad screens.

[Iamfalang]

My comrades....

 

We are the last breed.   The world will end when we end.  We are in the apocalypse.  End-of-days, so don't worry, we won't miss anything.  Yes, everything you saw was the best that ever was and will be.  feel special.  

 

This next invasion is simply part 2 of 22 before Earth becomes art.   E and H will be out.  Maybe another civilization will start in 240 million years, not sure.   it's possible, sorry.   YOLO

[Adumbration]

3 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Thailand will follow the wind, and most likely you are right

As usual they will sit on the fence as long as possible.  If they are lucky there might be a move to cancel Chinese held debt.  Thailand would definitely jump on that band wagon.  The Junta would have to back pedal on their anti west rhetoric, but, hey, they are experts in the art of flip flops and u-turns.

[Lemsta69]

30 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

How do you know Taiwan is unprepared, do you sit in on the planning meetings of their military?

 

As the Ukrainian war has shown, modern shoulder-fired missiles are leveling the playing field. Russia has a superior air force to Ukraine, not doing them much good, is it?

 

China's biggest food import is soybeans, guess where that comes from? Hint: from China's biggest customer.

 

Silicon Valley outsources the manufacture of high-end semiconductors to Taiwan, there is nothing to say the US could not bring that capacity back home.

 

My mistake, Poroshenko is an oligarch, which led me to think he is cut from the same cloth as the Russians.

I read somewhere, news(.)com.(au) perhaps that reckons it takes years to set up semiconductor plants. not sure if that's true or not as the author is a bit of a Cassandra. 

[Lemsta69]

4 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Threads don't need to be locked anymore.  You can't read comments anyway because they are covered with pop up ad screens.

I can help you with that ser ????

[Adumbration]

It is also a little sad to see that we are now heading into the fifth page of this thread and no one has raised the Spratly Islands.

[Adumbration]

Just a week or so ago there was a new Prime Minister sworn into office in Australia.  Very interesting that the first thing he has done was jump on a plane and head to Indonesia.  He was photographed there yesterday cycling in a park with the Joko Widodo.

 

Why?

 

Because Indo is the often overlooked Elephant in the room as far as SEA conflict is concerned.  Especially for Australia as you can literally throw a rock from Darwin to Kupang. (Yes Kupang is now in Timor, not Indo, because the Oz government helped it declare independence a few decades back).

 

The Oz government knows full well that China will move on Taiwan.  And it is such an important issue the very first thing the new PM had to do was go and test the waters with Joko to see whether he would back the CCP.  Oh...and if you fail to see the potential threat here to Australia note that their current population is 25.69M and Indonesia is 273.5M.

Edited June 7, 2022 by Adumbration

[Lemsta69]

6 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Just a week or so ago there was a new Prime Minister sworn into office in Australia.  Very interesting that the first thing he has done was jump on a plane and head to Indonesia.  He was photographed there yesterday cycling in a park with the Joko Widodo.

 

Why?

 

Because Indo is the often overlooked Elephant in the room as far as SEA conflict is concerned.  Especially for Australia as you can literally throw a rock from Darwin to Kupang. (Yes Kupang is now in Timor, not Indo, because the Oz government helped it declare independence a few decades back).

 

The Oz government knows full well that China will move on Taiwan.  And it is such an important issue the very first thing the new PM had to do was go and test the waters with Joko to see whether he would back the CCP.  Oh...and if you fail to see the potential threat here to Australia note that their current population is 25.69M and Indonesia is 273.5M.

Albo's first visit was to Tokyo for the Quad meeting afaik. at any rate you are correct, Oz hasn't been doing a particularly great job of managing its relationship with either Indo or the Pacific nations. imho they have too much of the born-to-rule attitude plus the fake moral high ground they love spouting so much.

[Adumbration]

16 minutes ago, Lemsta69 said:

Albo's first visit was to Tokyo for the Quad meeting afaik. at any rate you are correct, Oz hasn't been doing a particularly great job of managing its relationship with either Indo or the Pacific nations. imho they have too much of the born-to-rule attitude plus the fake moral high ground they love spouting so much.

Pacific nations are mostly irrelevant.  No military clout.  But Indo is an entirely different kettle of fish.  I have spent lots of time in Indo over the years and speak pretty good Bahasa.  I was in Lombok just after Timor gained its independence.  I witnessed some Australian flag burning and had two seperate incidences of confrontation with aggressive youth that had found out I was an Australian.  Had to move accomodation on both occassions.

Edited June 7, 2022 by Adumbration

[Adumbration]

32 minutes ago, Lemsta69 said:

I read somewhere, news(.)com.(au) perhaps that reckons it takes years to set up semiconductor plants. not sure if that's true or not as the author is a bit of a Cassandra. 

Relocation is a moot point anyway isn't it?  Won't have time to relocate and if full blown conflict the plants and factories will be toast anyway if Ukraine is a relevant example.  

 

So...if I follow my own logic...that China's move on Taiwan is a given...and then factor in Taiwanese semi-conductor production is toast...long term disruption a given...but perhaps for good...then we should be discussing what happens if the semi-conductor tap gets turned off.

 

Another major inflationary pressure for sure...but what are the other consequences?

[ukrules]

On 6/5/2022 at 8:17 PM, Adumbration said:

3. Start a war

 

My money is on option #3.

This option comes with either option 1 or option 2 - it doesn't come on its own.

 

You don't choose to let COVID rip, covid 'rips' anyway.

[Lemsta69]

34 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Pacific nations are mostly irrelevant.  No military clout.  But Indo is an entirely different kettle of fish.  I have spent lots of time in Indo over the years and speak pretty good Bahasa.  I was in Lombok just after Timor gained its independence.  I witnessed some Australian flag burning and had two seperate incidences of confrontation with aggressive youth that had found out I was an Australian.  Had to move accomodation on both occassions.

I disagree about the Pacific nations. Chinese bases on Solomons, Fiji etc isn't a good look.

 

but you're right, Indo is very important and unfortunately Aussies don't seem to see it as either a place to avoid (eww Jakarta's disgusting) or a place to go and get paralytic and turn get beaten up by security (Kuta, Bali). 

 

I've also spent a little bit of time in Indonesia and have had a little glimpse of what you mentioned. it's not pretty. best to move on like you did and avoid the confrontation.

[Adumbration]

3 minutes ago, Lemsta69 said:

I disagree about the Pacific nations. Chinese bases on Solomons, Fiji etc isn't a good look.

 

but you're right, Indo is very important and unfortunately Aussies don't seem to see it as either a place to avoid (eww Jakarta's disgusting) or a place to go and get paralytic and turn get beaten up by security (Kuta, Bali). 

 

I've also spent a little bit of time in Indonesia and have had a little glimpse of what you mentioned. it's not pretty. best to move on like you did and avoid the confrontation.

The bases on the Solomons and Fiji have little strategic importance.  To far from anything in the event that real conflict breaks out...and no hope of resupplying.  I am of course assuming that there are no covert missile silos or other CCP shennanigans.