Thailand’s economic outlook into 2023 looks bleak as world economies head for a ‘hard’ recession

[hotchilli]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s economic outlook looks bleaker than most anticipate it to be as some of the major sources of economic growth are likely to face turbulence in the months ahead as exports and tourism may not be able to live up to expectations as global economy goes in for a tailspin.

Russias continued and escalated war with Ukraine is going to drive may countries into recession early next year, especially for Europe.

Don't expect huge numbers of holiday makers heading East in 2023... unless Putin stars lobbing nukes around, then there might be an exodus.

[BangkokReady]

6 hours ago, BayArea said:

Her typical Thai xenophobic belief is Thailand is for Thais and if you don't like the way the country or gov't treats non Thai, you can leave.  

It's odd, given how reliant Thailand is on foreign people for income. Also they could have a much better education system if they were more appreciative of foreign people who have skills they would benefit from learning. Perhaps a knowledge of these two facts is what causes this in the first place.

 

I suppose it's simply a cornerstone of their psychology that is imprinted on them almost from birth. Something needed by the elite and society as a whole to keep people happy and compliant.

 

Have the conditions within Thailand since tourism was suspended changed her point of view at all? Or is she in denial of what has been happening to the economy?

[mnomad]

Just one data point, friend just booked a flight economy to thailand from UK 1060gbp - there are slightly cheaper but with crazy connection times or false prices - long haul with no luggage etc, prior to covid he paid typically 500-600 all in.  How many EU or UK tourists are going to pony up over a grand pp just to get here? I see a big slump coming until the whole Ukraine and fuel price situation improves..

[bkk6060]

Oh, I think differently this is the place everyone wants to come.  A neutral country that is safe, low cost, has all the amenities, infrastructure, etc.  I see it potentially as being one of the top destinations in the world next year.

[spidermike007]

The recession that is likely coming next year will not help. But, a lot of Thailand's current economic woes are largely self inflicted. This exceedingly reckless administration engaged in multiple, highly selective economic shutdowns, that favored their cronies, and punished the masses.

 

They also kept the nation closed off for far too long, and decimated tourism. Then they partially re-opened, with draconian restrictions. It could take years for a recovery, that will likely never return to what it was before. 

 

So, if you want to put the blame in the place it belongs, blame Prayuth and Prawit. They are the architects of the downfall of Thailand, the increased suicides, homelessness, crime, unemployment, desperation, and unhappiness of the people. 

[spidermike007]

56 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

It's odd, given how reliant Thailand is on foreign people for income. Also they could have a much better education system if they were more appreciative of foreign people who have skills they would benefit from learning. Perhaps a knowledge of these two facts is what causes this in the first place.

 

I suppose it's simply a cornerstone of their psychology that is imprinted on them almost from birth. Something needed by the elite and society as a whole to keep people happy and compliant.

 

Have the conditions within Thailand since tourism was suspended changed her point of view at all? Or is she in denial of what has been happening to the economy?

Zero change. The extreme hubris and arrogance on the part of the officials seems to result in a level of blindness that is nearly total. They literally seem incapable of learning. The fact they this administration picked department heads from the absolute bottom of the barrel, never considering merit for even a moment, did not help. 

 

I could go on all day. My guess is nothing is being done to address anything, and every issue they currently face is being blamed on Covid. Now, they have a real scapegoat, and looking within for the source of any of the problems is less likely than ever.

truly believe, that 20 or 30 years from now, in tourism industry, business and sociology classes, at the uni level, there will be tours of these hollowed out shells, of huge hotels that were built, and could neither find guests to stay, nor even a market for condo conversions, and ended up abandoned, after buyers could not be found, or owners refused to accept 20% of the land and construction costs, as a sales price. 
 

Covid could have been a great opportunity for a reset. There is nothing to suggest anything like that happened. If anything, Thailand is moving backwards, from being the tiger of SE Asia, to bring a pathetic, sickly, anemic alley cat, begging for scraps. 

[nigelforbes]

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The recession that is likely coming next year will not help. But, a lot of Thailand's current economic woes are largely self inflicted. This exceedingly reckless administration engaged in multiple, highly selective economic shutdowns, that favored their cronies, and punished the masses.

 

They also kept the nation closed off for far too long, and decimated tourism. Then they partially re-opened, with draconian restrictions. It could take years for a recovery, that will likely never return to what it was before. 

 

So, if you want to put the blame in the place it belongs, blame Prayuth and Prawit. They are the architects of the downfall of Thailand, the increased suicides, homelessness, crime, unemployment, desperation, and unhappiness of the people. 

"if you want to put the blame in the place it belongs", which accomplishes absolutely zero.,

[gearbox]

48 minutes ago, mnomad said:

Just one data point, friend just booked a flight economy to thailand from UK 1060gbp - there are slightly cheaper but with crazy connection times or false prices - long haul with no luggage etc, prior to covid he paid typically 500-600 all in.  How many EU or UK tourists are going to pony up over a grand pp just to get here? I see a big slump coming until the whole Ukraine and fuel price situation improves..

Hard to say..at one end airfares are high and cost of living is skyrocketing, on the other end it looks tempting to lock the house, move to a nice warm country and avoid massive energy bills. That's of course people who don't depend on annual leave from work.

 

I flew in around 2 weeks go, the Abu Dhabi and Istanbul airports were packed, never saw that many people in Abu Dhabi before. Swampy looked deserted compared to them. So far seems people are choosing holidays closer to home, at least during the Euro summer.

[nigelforbes]

4 minutes ago, gearbox said:

Hard to say..at one end airfares are high and cost of living is skyrocketing, on the other end it looks tempting to lock the house, move to a nice warm country and avoid massive energy bills. That's of course people who don't depend on annual leave from work.

 

I flew in around 2 weeks go, the Abu Dhabi and Istanbul airports were packed, never saw that many people in Abu Dhabi before. Swampy looked deserted compared to them. So far seems people are choosing holidays closer to home, at least during the Euro summer.

Excellent points and observations, I totally agree. I also think that Westerns are going to be more cost conscious, the Thailand definition of inexpensive doesn't match what others think, Thailand aspires to charge Westerners more but inflations at home will prevent that. 

[BayArea]

1 hour ago, BangkokReady said:

It's odd, given how reliant Thailand is on foreign people for income. Also they could have a much better education system if they were more appreciative of foreign people who have skills they would benefit from learning. Perhaps a knowledge of these two facts is what causes this in the first place.

 

I suppose it's simply a cornerstone of their psychology that is imprinted on them almost from birth. Something needed by the elite and society as a whole to keep people happy and compliant.

 

Have the conditions within Thailand since tourism was suspended changed her point of view at all? Or is she in denial of what has been happening to the economy?

Lol!! Denial is in their blood. Saving face and such...Like your stubborn Thai woman,  she doesn't see the forest because of the trees.

[Screaming]

Thailand's economic outlook might look bleak but at least Thailand does not have old Joe Biden and cackling Harris as President and VP. Thailand has that going for it and is a reason I am living here.

[sscc]

13 hours ago, Adumbration said:

You should visit my village to give pep talks.  The elderly couple down the end of my street have resorted to ratting through garbage looking for cardboard to sell at the recyclers.  He is a very skilled wood carver who used to do ornate boats (to display seafood in fancy restaurants).  

I saw plenty of Thai looking through and searching abandoned cardboards or bottles in garage holders Months ago,  a year ago, two years ago here in Pattaya-Jomtien tourist town.

 

Thank Buddha that I did not see much of that happening here in July, August or Sept 2022.   Tourism is very clearly on the uptrend in this country now.  

  

[Walker88]

17 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I don't agree with the gloomy economic assessment. The country is able to feed itself plus government borrowings are low by comparison. Yes, international tourism will not live up to expectations for another two years is my best guess. And exports will continue to be below past peak levels as recession hits our trading partners and supply chains become fully functional. None of these things mean that Thailand will be in serious economic difficulty, they simply mean that progress wont reach expected levels as hoped. By comparison to Western countries, Thailand is in pretty good shape.

I can tell from your posts you are knowledgeable regarding economics, and Thailand might not be in any worse shape than many countries, but there are concerns, the level of which I don't really know.

 

Household debt of 90% of per capita GDP is worrying, both because the number is staggering and also because it likely does not include loan shark debt (who currently charge 20% per month to their victims).

 

Secondly, I have no real clue on the condition of the banks, because their NPL numbers are meaningless and so is much of their reported income. The long debt moratorium, the change in laws that now allow banks to create debt-buying subsidiaries (built for abuse), and the fact banks were allowed to book imputed interest as income (as if borrowers actually repaid) makes their balance sheets and income statements rather opaque.

 

Tourism was 18.8% of GDP in 2019. Counting both domestic and int'l, maybe it is running 25% of what it was before Covid. That's quite a hole to fill, and with exports not being helped by the worldwide fall in trade, plus the (so far) nascent shift of some foreign manufacturing facilities to Vietnam, one wonders how Thailand makes up for it.

 

Again, Thailand may not be worse than  many other countries, but the next year or two do not look rosy, and current leadership does not seem to have the skill nor wisdom to fashion a solution..

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I can tell from your posts you are knowledgeable regarding economics, and Thailand might not be in any worse shape than many countries, but there are concerns, the level of which I don't really know.

 

Household debt of 90% of per capita GDP is worrying, both because the number is staggering and also because it likely does not include loan shark debt (who currently charge 20% per month to their victims).

 

Secondly, I have no real clue on the condition of the banks, because their NPL numbers are meaningless and so is much of their reported income. The long debt moratorium, the change in laws that now allow banks to create debt-buying subsidiaries (built for abuse), and the fact banks were allowed to book imputed interest as income (as if borrowers actually repaid) makes their balance sheets and income statements rather opaque.

 

Tourism was 18.8% of GDP in 2019. Counting both domestic and int'l, maybe it is running 25% of what it was before Covid. That's quite a hole to fill, and with exports not being helped by the worldwide fall in trade, plus the (so far) nascent shift of some foreign manufacturing facilities to Vietnam, one wonders how Thailand makes up for it.

 

Again, Thailand may not be worse than  many other countries, but the next year or two do not look rosy, and current leadership does not seem to have the skill nor wisdom to fashion a solution..

Just some information.

 

Tourism WAS estimated to be equal to about 20% of GDP but international tourism was around 11%, the remaining 9% was domestic tourism which still exists today. Thailands GDP WAS USD 500 bill in 2020, what it might be today is not clear. The point is that a temporary loss of 75% of international tourism is not such a devastating loss that the headlines would have you believe, especially since tourism industry here was massively overpopulated and needed to be rationalised.

 

Household or Consumer debt is an issue, it is far too high. But that debt amount is fixed, even though GDP has shrunk hence the ratio of Consumer Debt to GDP continues to climb, even though few people are borrowing more from banks. In short, it is today what it has been for a quite some time hence the problem is not new.

 

The banks picture is interesting. I read something recently that described Bangkok Bank as critically important to the infrastructure of Thailand, come what may that bank will not be allowed to fail under almost any circumstances. Bank of Ayudhya (sp) is owned by Bank Mitsubishi in Japan which has assets of over USD 2.5 trill., UOB is part of UOB Singapore which is regularly rated as one of the top 10 safest banks in the world. The point here is that there are some big name players in the Thai banking field and BOT, the Central Bank, is very much on top of the things. The downside of course is the lack of regulation which as you suggest, leads to a lack of opaqueness. Given the legislation that allows banks to operate with Minimum Lending Rates etc, the deck is heavily loaded in favour of the banks. All things considered,  I would therefore not be worried about the condition of their balance sheets. 

 

[MyFriend You]

20 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Will we test 40+ to the dollar in the next year ????????????

45 to the $$ by May 2023

[bobbin]

1 hour ago, Screaming said:

Thailand's economic outlook might look bleak but at least Thailand does not have old Joe Biden and cackling Harris as President and VP. Thailand has that going for it and is a reason I am living here.

They were the price that had to be paid to ensure that the know nothing narcissist didn't get a second term...

 

And even in losing he has moved America significantly closer to the precipice. But he has a lot of know nothing supporters so America is not out of the woods yet..

 

 

[Walker88]

59 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Bank of Ayudhya (sp) is owned by Bank Mitsubishi in Japan which has assets of over USD 2.5 trill., UOB is part of UOB Singapore which is regularly rated as one of the top 10 safest banks in the world. The point here is that there are some big name players in the Thai banking field and BOT, 

 

I have next to no faith in any Japanese bank. I'll explain why.

 

After the Dai Boraku (Big Crash) in 1990, Japan changed a number of accounting rules. Banks could create subsidiaries that need not be consolidated on the parents BS so long as the sub was less than 10% of assets. So what many banks did was create subs and sell their bad debt to the subs. They also used to cross futures at the Open and Close, and given they were allowed three days to book the trade, after three days the "losing side" of a trade was booked in a non consolidated sub, the "winner" was run through the parent's income statement.

 

Banks also approached trust banks to create long term options that did the same thing. The bank took both sides of the option, paid a fee to the 'originator', then booked the losing side in a non-consolidated sub. Absolute pure fraud, and 100% legal (if that is not an oxymoron).

 

Banks also are allowed creative accounting of their book. This impacts pensions mostly, but also investment portfolios of banks. Positions can be carried at higher of cost or market. Also, only realized gains or losses need be booked, or in the case of a pension or trust, paid out. Realized losses must be offset against gains, but unrealized losses can be carried at higher of cost or market. You can guess what everyone did.

 

Most pensions and investment portfolios are full of positions bought in the late 1980s, when the Nikkei topped out at 38,915.87 (burned into my memory). Some of those positions are 90% below peak, yet are being carried at cost. Winning positions tend to be realized, but are often put back on, so they go back on the books at a high cost. Some of this was masked because of asset allocation and the gains in JGBs.

 

I believe Thailand followed many of these Japanese practices during Covid, as it seemed to have worked for Japan. Of course Japan has an inverted pyramid population, which means the elderly need to pull funds from pensions or Kampo and Yucho. Perhaps this is why the yen is down 40% in the last year and a half. The bubble is bursting.

[connda]

My guess is that most of Asia will weather the economic storm much better than the EU and UK.  A EU without a source of natural gas is cooked (well, not cooked as it has no cooking gas).  US LGN isn't saving the EU.  Not this year for sure.  Probably not next.  By then?  After the public takes to the streets after this winter's thaw, their may not be an EU. 
It's much better to be in SE Asia.  Rural is even better.  You can live on a shoestring if you have to.

[novacova]

10 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

"why? Because of the policies and horrible spending habits of those trying to run things in the US government. Their intentional destruction of the global economy is not a good thing, no matter how anyone try’s to justify it".

 

USD strengthening is not a bad thing done by bad people, it's a natural response to events and is entirely predictable. USD is the pre-eminent global reserve currency, in times of turmoil and economic uncertainty, people buy it for security. Inflation is a  function of the post covid effect and a bi-product of the war in Ukraine, the US Fed is absolutely right to keep that genie in the bottle and raising interest rates is one way to do that. Unfortunately, that makes USD even more appealing. This is about cause and effect, not about what bad or misguided people are doing, stop trying to find someone to blame, if you must do that, blame Putin and the people who unleashed the covid virus, everyone else is trying to help..

 

Wrong on every point, sounds like reverberations of the US media, where the most erroneous spoon fed information can be found. Sorta like the Chinese population, most of which believe what they’re told. So I understand clearly why some chose to believe such nonsense ????

[spidermike007]

5 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

"if you want to put the blame in the place it belongs", which accomplishes absolutely zero.,

Likely nearly true. As I am preaching to the expat community. However, if more Thais took action, it could have spectacular results. Laying blame at the feet of horrible leaders is the least we can all do. 

[nigelforbes]

2 hours ago, Walker88 said:

I have next to no faith in any Japanese bank. I'll explain why.

 

After the Dai Boraku (Big Crash) in 1990, Japan changed a number of accounting rules. Banks could create subsidiaries that need not be consolidated on the parents BS so long as the sub was less than 10% of assets. So what many banks did was create subs and sell their bad debt to the subs. They also used to cross futures at the Open and Close, and given they were allowed three days to book the trade, after three days the "losing side" of a trade was booked in a non consolidated sub, the "winner" was run through the parent's income statement.

 

Banks also approached trust banks to create long term options that did the same thing. The bank took both sides of the option, paid a fee to the 'originator', then booked the losing side in a non-consolidated sub. Absolute pure fraud, and 100% legal (if that is not an oxymoron).

 

Banks also are allowed creative accounting of their book. This impacts pensions mostly, but also investment portfolios of banks. Positions can be carried at higher of cost or market. Also, only realized gains or losses need be booked, or in the case of a pension or trust, paid out. Realized losses must be offset against gains, but unrealized losses can be carried at higher of cost or market. You can guess what everyone did.

 

Most pensions and investment portfolios are full of positions bought in the late 1980s, when the Nikkei topped out at 38,915.87 (burned into my memory). Some of those positions are 90% below peak, yet are being carried at cost. Winning positions tend to be realized, but are often put back on, so they go back on the books at a high cost. Some of this was masked because of asset allocation and the gains in JGBs.

 

I believe Thailand followed many of these Japanese practices during Covid, as it seemed to have worked for Japan. Of course Japan has an inverted pyramid population, which means the elderly need to pull funds from pensions or Kampo and Yucho. Perhaps this is why the yen is down 40% in the last year and a half. The bubble is bursting.

A key element of the jigsaw is the amount needed to put the current account into surplus which would keep the Baht strong. A major component of the current account is the trade surplus/deficit, which includes exports and foreign currency from tourism (which is also an export). All things being equal we need to see tourism income at about 38% of 2018 arrivals or about 15 mill. tourists, fairly close to todays numbers. But all things are not equal and exports generally have fallen. Either exports generally need to increase or tourist arrivals need to do so, either of those things would cause Baht strengthening. In practice we will probably see a combination of factors come together and when they d,o THB will get stronger, at that point the expat community will cry, "they're manipulating the Baht again".  ????

[JimGant]

23 hours ago, novacova said:

Wrong on every point

Give us your interpretation. I need a good laugh.

[JimGant]

On 10/3/2022 at 7:47 AM, webfact said:

Thailand’s economic outlook looks bleaker than most anticipate it to be as some of the major sources of economic growth are likely to face turbulence in the months ahead as exports and tourism may not be able to live up to expectations as global economy goes in for a tailspin.

Yeah, speed bumps ahead. But, overall, Thailand looks solid and ready to move forward. Read the following from the World Bank.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview

 

Nice, balanced reporting, and just updated last month. Overall, a thumbs up for Thailand. Don't know why folks on this forum can't do more research, instead of relying on your uneducation and gut feelings.

 

Oh, Nigel the newbie -- welcome to the forum. Appreciate your valid insights. Don't let the unwashed here get you down.

 

 

[JimGant]

On 10/3/2022 at 4:27 PM, Bangkok Barry said:

Why should they? Nothing in it for them to make our life easier. All they've done over the years is place more and more obstacles. They are unable to join the dots between foreigners living here - blah blah blah

Why all the whiners and negativity on this forum? If things are so bad, what are you doing here? Oh, yeah, you left your former home because -- you thought you were being mistreated, in some form or fashion. And the grass is always greener.

 

Well, Thailand is a great place to live. The folks are pleasant and fun to be around. The weather, being warm, suits my arthritis. Things are much cheaper than in the States, tho' that wasn't a necessary selling point. And I've everything here that I need -- health care, internet, movie channels, US sports, ad infinitum. Why would I ever want to move back to Wash DC, where you can't walk the streets after dark, and where there's bleak winters and local income taxes. And insurrectionists in the streets. No, I'll take Thailand, hands down.

 

I just can't believe the preponderance of posters on this forum are so "glass three quarters empty" on Thailand...... I hope it's because the positive folks don't want to waste their day pushing aside whiners' complaints.

 

Oh, three hours a year at Imm, plus 5 minutes on the computer every 90 days. Beats getting mugged in DC.

[Bangkok Barry]

1 hour ago, JimGant said:

Why all the whiners and negativity on this forum? If things are so bad, what are you doing here? Oh, yeah, you left your former home because -- you thought you were being mistreated, in some form or fashion. And the grass is always greener.

 

Well, Thailand is a great place to live. The folks are pleasant and fun to be around. The weather, being warm, suits my arthritis. Things are much cheaper than in the States, tho' that wasn't a necessary selling point. And I've everything here that I need -- health care, internet, movie channels, US sports, ad infinitum. Why would I ever want to move back to Wash DC, where you can't walk the streets after dark, and where there's bleak winters and local income taxes. And insurrectionists in the streets. No, I'll take Thailand, hands down.

 

I just can't believe the preponderance of posters on this forum are so "glass three quarters empty" on Thailand...... I hope it's because the positive folks don't want to waste their day pushing aside whiners' complaints.

 

Oh, three hours a year at Imm, plus 5 minutes on the computer every 90 days. Beats getting mugged in DC.

Thanks for your anti-US rant.

[Isaan sailor]

On 10/4/2022 at 3:40 PM, nigelforbes said:

A key element of the jigsaw is the amount needed to put the current account into surplus which would keep the Baht strong. A major component of the current account is the trade surplus/deficit, which includes exports and foreign currency from tourism (which is also an export). All things being equal we need to see tourism income at about 38% of 2018 arrivals or about 15 mill. tourists, fairly close to todays numbers. But all things are not equal and exports generally have fallen. Either exports generally need to increase or tourist arrivals need to do so, either of those things would cause Baht strengthening. In practice we will probably see a combination of factors come together and when they d,o THB will get stronger, at that point the expat community will cry, "they're manipulating the Baht again".  ????

Nah, I like my  currency theory better:  When US stocks go up—Baht/USD goes up (risk on).  When US stocks tank—Baht/USD tanks as well (risk off).

[Gknrd]

On 10/3/2022 at 5:28 PM, BangkokReady said:

Because they don't want to acknowledge anything positive about foreigners, least of all expats.  In fact, they need things like 90-day to make foreigners look bad and feel unwelcome.

As an western expat, not sure what others think. But, Thailand can stick it where the sun don't shine.  I will spent my money elsewhere... No problems.

[novacova]

On 10/5/2022 at 1:58 PM, JimGant said:

Give us your interpretation. I need a good laugh.

Global inflation began when the idiot’s in Washington decided to shut down energy production in the US. This started a chain of events globally. Any empirical thinker can ascertain and grasp what, why and how this mess started. Weakness in Washington inspired Russia to invade, inflation began before the invasion. Putin inspired by rising oil prices and weakness in Washington. All this mess would come to a halt if energy production resumed in the US. But no….so what do the freaking w0ket@rdz do? They run to other countries and beg for oil, countries that produces oil in an non-environmental friendly way. This is the upside down backwards digressive idiot policies that are supported by those who hired these scamming crooks that put these policies in place. Anyone that denies the facts are probably stuck and jammed up in a warped ideology and been formed by the propaganda of the media. 

[herfiehandbag]

On 10/3/2022 at 5:28 PM, BangkokReady said:

Because they don't want to acknowledge anything positive about foreigners, least of all expats.  In fact, they need things like 90-day to make foreigners look bad and feel unwelcome.

I don't think that it is a deliberate policy to make foreigners unwelcome; rather a result of foreigners and visa/reporting having become a job creation scheme and perhaps in certain circumstances an income stream for bureaucrats.

 

I do wonder whether there is a massive "back office" operation which checks and examines the mountains of paperwork and photocopies the front desks generate? Somehow I doubt it!

[ivor bigun]

I would hate to be a pensioner in Britain,how they survive i dont know ,at least here we are warm ,well fed ,can afford a car and dont get charged gigantic bills for everything ,like back home .