If the worse happens in the war, what happens in Thailand?

[Baron Samedi]

The recent strikes on Kiyv make me believe that Russians still have a lot of ways to wage their war without using nuclear weapons. Truth is Russia could flatten Kiyv if it wanted too but I don't think Putin's goal is to win by killing as many civilians as possible.

 

As for Putin being cornered, I don't think it is true. Many countries keep doing business with Russia even though some of them might disagree with Putin's ways. At the end of the day, Russia has some valuable and much needed natural resources to sell.

 

The recent coup in Burkina Faso also makes me believe that Russian influence in the world is growing right now. Another reason to be skeptical about the end of Putin and the collapse of Russia.

 

Right now I think that those imagining some sort of nuclear war are out of touch with reality. The war will continue and, at some point, everyone will gather around a table and negotiate peace. The sooner, the better.

 

One thing is for sure, we need new international institutions with less power for the West and more power for the emerging world. If that doesn't happen we will have a third world war at some point and it will be nuclear. Then you'll have good reasons to worry ????

 

Just my two cents on this ????

[seedy]

 

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, Baron Samedi said:

The recent strikes on Kiyv make me believe that Russians still have a lot of ways to wage their war without using nuclear weapons. Truth is Russia could flatten Kiyv if it wanted too but I don't think Putin's goal is to win by killing as many civilians as possible.

 

As for Putin being cornered, I don't think it is true. Many countries keep doing business with Russia even though some of them might disagree with Putin's ways. At the end of the day, Russia has some valuable and much needed natural resources to sell.

 

The recent coup in Burkina Faso also makes me believe that Russian influence in the world is growing right now. Another reason to be skeptical about the end of Putin and the collapse of Russia.

 

Right now I think that those imagining some sort of nuclear war are out of touch with reality. The war will continue and, at some point, everyone will gather around a table and negotiate peace. The sooner, the better.

 

One thing is for sure, we need new international institutions with less power for the West and more power for the emerging world. If that doesn't happen we will have a third world war at some point and it will be nuclear. Then you'll have good reasons to worry ????

 

Just my two cents on this ????

You lost me at your assertion that Putin cares one iota about slaughtering civilians including children.

 

He is more than willing to flatten Ukraine to dust if he can't win his war of choice.

 

That would still be a win for him as his intentions in Ukraine are genocidal anyway.

 

It is true Putin doesn't actually want nuclear war but rather he's trying to scare off the west to stop supporting Ukraine's defense  It won't work. The more war crimes he commits the less chance of the west backing off. However because Putin started with the nuclear threats the chances greatly increase of a kind of accidental escalation into full nuclear war. Not probable but no doubt possible.

 

 

[internationalism]

because all thai related was already discussed, would this thread will be closing now?

[3NUMBAS]

zero tourists again

[DezLez]

30 minutes ago, internationalism said:

because all thai related was already discussed, would this thread will be closing now?

yet again I ask "Where is the confused/sad button"!

Can someone please translate the above!

[Jingthing]

37 minutes ago, internationalism said:

because all thai related was already discussed, would this thread will be closing now?

It could be or instead you could just stop reading it.

[internationalism]

4 minutes ago, DezLez said:

yet again I ask "Where is the confused/sad button"!

Can someone please translate the above!

don't shout, if you have questions do use question marks.

this thread has derailed. It has now nothing to do with thailand, as required by the OP in his very many requests. Just became another war thread. Hence should be closed

 

[internationalism]

5 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

It could be or instead you could just stop reading it.

you have derailed your own thread. Against your earlier requests to stick to thailand. Now you engage yourself in pure political speculations

[Jingthing]

24 minutes ago, internationalism said:

you have derailed your own thread. Against your earlier requests to stick to thailand. Now you engage yourself in pure political speculations

People ignored me again and again so I gave up!

There is another active topic specifically fitting escalation discussion but people insisted on ignoring that so I did indeed post on that vein here.

Note well  I personally never had a problem with that except in the sense of forum guidelines. Only that. Otherwise they fit together.

If you insist on trying to get this closed now for whatever reason that's up to you. It feels like personal spite to me though so not very pretty.

 

Cheers.

[Jingthing]

27 minutes ago, internationalism said:

don't shout, if you have questions do use question marks.

this thread has derailed. It has now nothing to do with thailand, as required by the OP in his very many requests. Just became another war thread. Hence should be closed

 

You are welcome to report it. 

[DezLez]

1 hour ago, internationalism said:

don't shout, if you have questions do use question marks

Yet again I ask "Where is the confused/sad button"!

Can someone please translate the above!

 

PS;  I know my comment above is a repeat of a previous post by me but what I am quoting is just referring to yet more gibberish by the poster "internationalism" in his/her response!

 

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, Jingthing said:

If there is a first strike full on Armageddon nuclear attack, the first strike will come from Russia so I really do find your comment totally absurd.

The only way it would come first from the USA is if there is a miscommunication and the USA mistakenly thinks Russia has launched. The chances of such a mistake are not trivial.

I find your contention that Russia would launch a full on nuclear first strike absurd.

They have no reason to do so currently, and will continue to not do so unless any of the nuclear armed western countries ready their missiles.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, Baron Samedi said:

The recent strikes on Kiyv make me believe that Russians still have a lot of ways to wage their war without using nuclear weapons. Truth is Russia could flatten Kiyv if it wanted too but I don't think Putin's goal is to win by killing as many civilians as possible.

 

As for Putin being cornered, I don't think it is true. Many countries keep doing business with Russia even though some of them might disagree with Putin's ways. At the end of the day, Russia has some valuable and much needed natural resources to sell.

 

The recent coup in Burkina Faso also makes me believe that Russian influence in the world is growing right now. Another reason to be skeptical about the end of Putin and the collapse of Russia.

 

Right now I think that those imagining some sort of nuclear war are out of touch with reality. The war will continue and, at some point, everyone will gather around a table and negotiate peace. The sooner, the better.

 

One thing is for sure, we need new international institutions with less power for the West and more power for the emerging world. If that doesn't happen we will have a third world war at some point and it will be nuclear. Then you'll have good reasons to worry ????

 

Just my two cents on this ????

I agree with everything except last paragraph.

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I find your contention that Russia would launch a full on nuclear first strike absurd.

They have no reason to do so currently, and will continue to not do so unless any of the nuclear armed western countries ready their missiles.

Straw man argument bait IGNORED.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, TunnelRat69 said:

I think Moscow would be a parking lot in a coupe days, it is not only the US that would respond.  Any sane person would realize we have most of his weapons caches locked on by conventional weapons by now..............myself, I hope the winds blow across the pacific ocean, and get sucked up thru the ozone layers into space.   If full nuclear, it's end game, almost no hope of planetary survival.  South America would be a better bet than Thailand though.   Peace

LOL. You point out the very reason why missiles would be launched BEFORE they can be taken out by "conventional" weapons. I'm pretty sure the planners have taken that into account.

Anyway, there are always the last resort- the missile submarines lurking around just waiting for the order to launch the end of the world as we know it.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Straw man argument bait IGNORED.

Ditto.

[Jingthing]

12 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Ditto.

Rush Limbaugh fan?

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, Jingthing said:

Rush Limbaugh fan?

I'm not a fan of any political person, but he has an interesting point of view, and has valid concerns, but the woke don't like him for sure, which is probably as good a reason to listen to him as any.

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'm not a fan of any political person, but he has an interesting point of view, and has valid concerns, but the woke don't like him for sure, which is probably as good a reason to listen to him as any.

I guess not too much of a fan as he's long dead. But he was very. very horrible. 

[thaibeachlovers]

22 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I guess not too much of a fan as he's long dead. But he was very. very horrible. 

I wasn't aware of that, but I hadn't listened to him since I left Thailand long ago.

Just because you didn't like his politics is no reason to insult his memory.

[mania]

18 hours ago, Jingthing said:

If there is a first strike full on Armageddon nuclear attack, the first strike will come from Russia so I really do find your comment totally absurd.

Actually I am not sure which comment is absurd because if we look at actual track records,

In the history of mankind only one country has ever nuked another & the excuse they used was to end fighting quicker

So ???? precedent has been set period.

 

Even Tulsi Gabbard who ran for US president has now announced she has left the Democratic party because in her words...

 

"calling it an “elitist cabal of warmongers”,

 

 

So I would not call it absurd to consider who is the bigger warmonger on this stage or which is crazy enough to start MAD

But as to the initial question in OP there is no point in considering it as there will be nowhere that is left untouched & your best case scenario is to be done quickly as whats left is no prize

 

[seedy]

10 hours ago, internationalism said:

Just became another war thread.

 

[Jingthing]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I wasn't aware of that, but I hadn't listened to him since I left Thailand long ago.

Just because you didn't like his politics is no reason to insult his memory.

I've finally  reached my limit with that sacharine disingenuous comment defending a notoriously racist propagandist.

Bye.

 

 

 

[internationalism]

4 nuclear war strategies, yet from 2019 lecture. No thailand mentioned, but north korea, a nuclear power.

The least likely strategy is manipulating the risk strategy, launching just only several, very few nukes - escalation to de-escalate 

 

In ukrainian context the same author from August 2022.

"Playing With Fire in Ukraine. The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation" (to read the full article you need to give your email address and they will forward a link to full article)

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine

 

After putting nuclear capabilities at high alert in February, later in April (threat of tactical warheads at withdrawal from north ukraine) and now in september - that is already a third warning from russia on their intentions.

 

That article is from 6th October

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-apocalyptic-end-game-ukraine

 

Now, going back to thailand, Putin is invited and will attend ASEAN summit to drum up support from thailand for his diplomatic and war efforts. He will have limited response, but cheap oil, gas, grains, fertilisers and row materials will be good bribing asses. Biden is not coming, he declined an invitation a month ago.  It looks like ASEAN will be further moving towards Russia, China, against the USA. That actually reduces chances of nuclear war as Russia won't be that desperate at ukraine war