Thailand’s economy stuck in the middle

[webfact]

Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha offers prayers at a shrine at the Interior Ministry in Bangkok, Thailand, 3 October 2022 (Photo: Reuters/Chalinee Thirasupa).

 

Author: Richard Yarrow, Harvard University and ANU

 

Southeast Asia’s second largest and once one of its most dynamic economies is struggling under the weight of an ageing population, a deteriorating education system and low yield rice farming. Thailand looks trapped as a middle-income country, unable to get rich, and stuck between a younger, dynamic Vietnam and larger Indonesia.

Getting out of its economic rut won’t be easy, but investment in education and higher quality human capital and agricultural and governance reform should be priorities.

 

Thailand has the lowest fertility rate in Southeast Asia, bar Singapore. Its demographics are arguably more worrisome than those of South Korea, which has a fertility rate close to 0.8. Between 2000 and 2021, South Korea’s population aged 20–24 declined by 15 per cent. In Thailand, that number fell by 20 per cent, moderately better than the 27 per cent decline in Japan. But Japan and South Korea generate over four times the per capita GDP of Thailand, and they have more resources to support ageing citizens and attract skilled immigrants to reinforce greying workforces.

 

As in many other countries, COVID-19 exacerbated Thailand’s ageing. Between 2020 and 2021, the number of Thai infants declined by 8 per cent. Middle and working-class households, stressed by growing debt, inflation and poor employment prospects, are hardly eager to have more children. During the pandemic, Thai household debt soared to 90 per cent of GDP.

 

Full story: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/10/23/thailands-economy-stuck-in-the-middle/

 

-- © Copyright East Asia Forum 2022-10-24

 

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[fondue zoo]

Magic, it's always the solution.

[bob smith]

maybe uncle tu can pray a bit harder, seems to always work for him

[engamann]

Maybe change this old Generals whit some younger educated people to run the country , dinosurs died 100 of years ago and so should this junta government.

[rbkk]

Change the driver and it will go faster.

[Robin]

Easy answer;  Gen Pratyuth will order the situation to improve.

[ikke1959]

Result of an incompetent Government.....Invest in electric cars, solar energy for common people, less holidays or make monthly wages instead of daily, so that not only Government officials have paid holidays, invest in a new railway system to reduce traffic and promote public transport, review visa rules so that Thailand will be attractive for tourists, backpackers and expats again, work on the waterways to prevent floodings every year. It are just a few things that Government can do. and they have to stimulate the Thai people to work, so that they don't need the cheap workers from the neighbouring countries. Make you own country and people happy..

 

But nothing of this happened in the past 8 years, not even 1 A5 paper with plans

Edited October 24, 2022 by ikke1959

[Aussieroaming]

Overhaul the education system to move away from a society where rote learning is the norm, to an education system that promotes free thinking, scientific development and innovation. Most of Thailands "intellectuals" merely parrot information accumulated and published in foreign scientific ànd academic white papers and  journals. Start up companies are replications of similar start ups overseas.

 

Thailand needs to think of focussing on down stream processing for future technologies. Next big thing is EV's and batteries. What comes after batteries or what complements that technology? In other words, start think ahead with the aid of understanding what large GDP countries are planning.

 

Developed governments like America budget years in advance, including purchase of raw minerals and required products for their five or ten year planning and development. These budgets are listed  in the public domain, so reading these budgets and understanding what commodities that the US has on its planning boards for development or stockpiling  is a great way to "look ahead" at future commodity and manufacturing trends and aligning your countries industries in order to gain future windfall profit from that knowledge.

 

[wombat]

4 hours ago, rbkk said:

Change the driver and it will go faster.

And paint it red.

[Sparktrader]

2 hours ago, Aussieroaming said:

Overhaul the education system to move away from a society where rote learning is the norm, to an education system that promotes free thinking, scientific development and innovation. Most of Thailands "intellectuals" merely parrot information accumulated and published in foreign scientific ànd academic white papers and  journals. Start up companies are replications of similar start ups overseas.

 

Thailand needs to think of focussing on down stream processing for future technologies. Next big thing is EV's and batteries. What comes after batteries or what complements that technology? In other words, start think ahead with the aid of understanding what large GDP countries are planning.

 

Developed governments like America budget years in advance, including purchase of raw minerals and required products for their five or ten year planning and development. These budgets are listed  in the public domain, so reading these budgets and understanding what commodities that the US has on its planning boards for development or stockpiling  is a great way to "look ahead" at future commodity and manufacturing trends and aligning your countries industries in order to gain future windfall profit from that knowledge.

 

No no

Temple visits and wais

[fusion58]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

But Japan and South Korea generate over four times the per capita GDP of Thailand, and they have more resources to support ageing citizens and attract skilled immigrants to reinforce greying workforces.

Perhaps Thailand would be more appealing to skilled immigrants were it not for the endless and superfluous bureaucratic red tape involved in setting up shop here. The fact that foreign nationals are treated like criminals on parole, i.e., required to constantly report their whereabouts and their movements, doesn’t help matters much either.

[Sparktrader]

1 hour ago, fusion58 said:

Perhaps Thailand would be more appealing to skilled immigrants were it not for the endless and superfluous bureaucratic red tape involved in setting up shop here. The fact that foreign nationals are treated like criminals on parole, i.e., required to constantly report their whereabouts and their movements, doesn’t help matters much either.

Set up Phuket as a tech haven. No imagination.

[billd766]

2 hours ago, fusion58 said:

Perhaps Thailand would be more appealing to skilled immigrants were it not for the endless and superfluous bureaucratic red tape involved in setting up shop here. The fact that foreign nationals are treated like criminals on parole, i.e., required to constantly report their whereabouts and their movements, doesn’t help matters much either.

I don't feel like a criminal.

 

Yes I do a 90 day report 4 times a year but I combine that with a bulk shopping trip. Sparing 1 hour every 3 months does not ruin my life.

 

My annual visa extension is less than 1 day in 365 and allows me to stay with my Thai wife and son. A very small price to pay for a great life here.

 

It is an attitude problem. If you look at it as a challenge it is easy and enjoyable. If you look at it the way you then of course it is a problem, but so easy to overcome.

[soalbundy]

Well in Isan there are loads of kids from toddlers to 16 year old's, after that it gets a bit bleak, then tho 50 to 80 year old's take over, many of the 20 to 40 year old's are all working in Bangkok and the kids are left with the grandparents.

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, fusion58 said:

Perhaps Thailand would be more appealing to skilled immigrants were it not for the endless and superfluous bureaucratic red tape involved in setting up shop here. The fact that foreign nationals are treated like criminals on parole, i.e., required to constantly report their whereabouts and their movements, doesn’t help matters much either.

Many many Indians seem to be easily opening up 'restaurants' here.... certainly in my Pattaya area. 

[hotchilli]

20 hours ago, webfact said:

Getting out of its economic rut won’t be easy, but investment in education and higher quality human capital and agricultural and governance reform should be priorities

The incumbent regime believe Submarines and F-35's are the priority..

not making the masses wiser than they need to be to do the bidding of the elites.

[2baht]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand looks trapped as a middle-income country, unable to get rich, and stuck between a younger, dynamic Vietnam and larger Indonesia.

Thailand, stuck in the mud! Needs a cultural rework, but while ever it benefits the rich, the status quo will be maintained!

[mikebell]

'Thailand’s economy stuck in the middle' between the Army and the police.

[SoilSpoil]

Institutional corruption has eroded the country economically and socially, almost to the point of no return. 1 step forward, 2 steps back, seems to be the narrative. . A total overhaul of governance, local and national (including police and army), is needed, but imposdible without a massive uprising, Im afraid. 

[2baht]

16 minutes ago, SoilSpoil said:

but impossible without a massive uprising, Im afraid. 

Will never happen while there's rice to eat!

[JimHuaHin]

I have just finished reading a book edited by Michael K. Connors and Ukrist Pathmanand "Thai Politics in Translation" (NIASPress, Cophenhagen, 2021) and am now reading Puangthong Pawakapam's  "Infilitrating Society: The Thai Military's Internal Security Affairs" (ISEAS, Singapore, 2021).  What is clear is that the Thai (read Bangkok) power elite do not want change, as the status quo benefits them.  Creating positive mythologies about the great wisdow and morality of ruling family, and mythologies of ignorance and stupidity of the working classes (read the peoples of Issan, Lanna and Pattani) making them unfit to participate in "democracy" (read decision-making), as well as mythologies of government officials as the moral agents enforcing the will of the ruling family  justifies the status quo.

 

The military, especially through ISOC (which has been around since the mid 1960s and founded, under US military advice, to supress communism) seeks to mould the thinking of Thai people (ISOC officials visiting all rural schools to teach Thai children right thinking and behaviour) and to respect the moral authority of the (Bangkok) ruling elite.

 

Of course, now the super rich (Chinese-) Thai business families have a marriage of convenience with senior Thai military personalities (from different factions - thus hedging their "bets") for mutual benefit (of course, similar "marriages of convenience" date back to the times of Rama 4 and Rama 5).  The "system" will not change unless this "married couple" will gain mutual advantage from the changes.

 

These traditional elites are using successful old-and-tried methods to maintain thier control and wealth; but in the age of modern technology, these methods are starting to fail, as the old military leaders cannot adequately adept to the age of "5G".

 

The Thai economy needs to adapt, increase productivity, increase innovating, and encourage the people to work for a great goal that benefits all.  But for many youth, the establishment's "killing" of Future Foward Party destroyed hope fo a better future; so why should I work hard for a future that does not exist and an establishment that enslaves me?

[redwood1]

I have one word for you........Cannabis.......Say no more......Teens smoking loads of ganga will turn this country around.....That is if they can ever make is off the sofa after a smoking and give the pizza and video games a rest...