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Thai Baht set to continue strengthening as Asian economies to benefit from China’s reopening

webfact

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ThailandRyan Star Member

ThailandRyan

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

There was no intervention, USD fell in value over the same period from 114% to 103%.

 

 

Screenshot (14).png

So Thailand did nothing to make the baht stronger like raising interest rates or using words like no recession, strong economy and inviting speculation on the baht. Wow that's some strong baht that just mysteriously rises based upon nothing really occurring.....go back in history and tell me where that sharp of a drop has occurred outside of market crashes. The USD is dropping because of many factors.  

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-06/wall-street-looks-past-dollar-dip-toward-fed-s-rate-hike-finale#xj4y7vzkg

 

Tell me where Thailand is seeing growth other than in tourism and let's be truthful about the economy here, something this country is not being.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://tdri.or.th/en/2022/12/uncertainty-ahead-for-thai-economy/%23:~:text%3DThailand's%20major%20export%20markets%20are,which%20are%20Thailand's%20major%20importers.&ved=2ahUKEwj9uazrlLT8AhUyM1kFHRlKDfgQFnoECBQQBQ&usg=AOvVaw0OPNBP40Gu60pp8LCYRXdM

 

Thailand's major export markets are forecasted to face a recession in 2023. The IMF's most recent forecasts show a sharp slowdown in the growth of the US and European Union (EU) economies, which are Thailand's major importers.

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So Thailand did nothing to make the baht stronger like raising interest rates or using words like no recession, strong economy and inviting speculation on the baht. Wow that's some strong baht that just mysteriously rises based upon nothing really occurring.....go back in history and tell me where that sharp of a drop has occurred outside of market crashes. The USD is dropping because of many factors.  

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-06/wall-street-looks-past-dollar-dip-toward-fed-s-rate-hike-finale#xj4y7vzkg

Stop it!

 

Raising interest rates is not intervention, officials saying there is no recession is not intervention, inviting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is not intervention.

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ThailandRyan Star Member

ThailandRyan

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Stop it!

Tell me in your view how this economy here in Thailand is stronger and thus ensuring the drop in other currencies to its own Thai baht. A weak market across the board as it is should maintain some sort of slow up and downs not sharp steep drops without intervention. The dollar rose because of the feds rate hikes and the economy of the US doing better than expected against others. I just closed my investigations company in the US and Philippines  because of external market factors. 

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Tell me on your view how this economy here in Thailand is stronger and thus ensuring the drop in other currencies to its own Thai baht. A weak market across the board as it is should maintain some sort of slow up and downs not sharp steep drops without intervention. The dollar rose because of the feds rate hikes and the economy of the US doing better than expected against others. I just closed my investigations company in the US and Philippines  because of external market factors. 

Currency value is measured against the key Reserve Currency, USD, the prime relationship is between individual currencies and USD. When USD strengthens, individual currencies appear weaker, even though they haven't changed in value in their own right, per se.

 

USD strengthened earlier this year because the Federal Reserve Bank became hawkish on inflation and let it be known they were going to keep raising interest rates, until inflation was under control. That news attracted capital inflows into USD based assets where they could make a better return, and, it also caused the value of USD to strengthen. Subsequently, markets now have sight of how far and how fast the Fed will increase rates and the value of USD is returning to near normal. 

 

Meanwhile, the Baht went from 30 ish to 38 ish and is now returning to low 30's. Why? Because USD has returned to its near normal level AND because the forecast for the Thai economy is better than many other economies. Why? Because Thailand has a comparatively lower volume of debt than other economies and almost none of it is foreign debt. Plus, Thailand is an export based economy and tourism is classed as an export, export bills are denominated and settled in USD). This means that as tourism has improved and is indeed forecast to improve even further, the current account will be in surplus (more exports than imports) and BOT's foreign currency reserves will increase even further, all of which will cause THB to strengthen. BOT's increases in interest rates were very mild by comparison, probably to help protect consumer debt but also to help narrow the gap between USD and THB and protect capital inflows.

 

Lastly, the US economy is not doing better than expected but the value of USD has normalised. The US is headed for recession and this will effect earnings, plus, the Fed will keep increasing interest rates. 

Edited by nigelforbes
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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ESLTeacher1989 said:

Hate the strong baht and I bet many digital nomad who get paid in another currency hate it also, We are like -10,000 baht a month worse off each month roughly than a few months ago(If you earning $2,000+ a month)

No you're not, you're still being paid the $2,000+ you agreed when you took the job! If you thought that USD/THB was going to remain at 38, you didn't do your homework. the typical range for USD/THB is low 30's but the forecast is that THB will only get stronger. And given that the US is headed for a recession, USD is likely to weaken further.

 

 

Screenshot (15).png

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jwest10 Silver Member

jwest10

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/6/2023 at 9:09 AM, jacko45k said:

Yes, a country in crisis... and when the Chinese money pours into Thailand, you will only see a lower rate Baht for Sterling. Quite a slide since mid-December. 

Even less to spend on our wonderful Thai families and we supply most of the funds  and the exchange rate and frozen state pension and do not know if any of you have the overseas British site on Facebook but I provided the impossible financials to go back and well it will be impossible for our wives and bad enough to get UK visas 17 years ago.
Yes, they  penalise us for daring to leave the UK to be with our loved ones.
The same in many countries and families are being split up for many reasons but one is the financials and impossible.

Edited by jwest10
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topt Ruby Member

topt

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, ESLTeacher1989 said:

worse off each month roughly than a few months ago

A simpler argument is what about how it was compared to 2021 or even a year ago in February 2022 when I exchanged at 32 something.....(annoyed with myself).

So compared to then you are still ahead.

 

This is not specific to the poster I am replying to. I understand people like to whinge when it is not in their interest but at least look at the whole view as @nigelforbes has tried to highlight.

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jwest10 said:

Even less to spend on our wonderful Thai families and we supply most of the funds  and the exchange rate and frozen state pension and do not know if any of you have the overseas British site on Facebook but I provided the impossible financials to go back and well it will be impossible for our wives and bad enough to get UK visas 17 years ago.
Yes, they  penalise us for daring to leave the UK to be with our loved ones.
The same in many countries and families are being split up for many reasons but one is the financials and impossible.

Baht exchange rates are an emotive subject, I understand that only too well. But if I'm brutally honest we only have ourselves to blame for where we are currently. The value of the Pound has been in decline since after WWII, the graphs are all very clear about its direction. The same is true of the Baht. The value of THB has strengthened almost continuously since around year 2000 and the forecast for the future is that will continue. If we all had done our homework and research before we moved over here, we would have understood what was in our future. But we didn't, the best we can do today is to try and understand why things are happening the way that they are and avoid blaming others when the fault is really ours. So we are not being penalised for leaving the UK, we are being penalised for being slightly stupid.

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jwest10 Silver Member

jwest10

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Baht exchange rates are an emotive subject, I understand that only too well. But if I'm brutally honest we only have ourselves to blame for where we are currently. The value of the Pound has been in decline since after WWII, the graphs are all very clear about its direction. The same is true of the Baht. The value of THB has strengthened almost continuously since around year 2000 and the forecast for the future is that will continue. If we all had done our homework and research before we moved over here, we would have understood what was in our future. But we didn't, the best we can do today is to try and understand why things are happening the way that they are and avoid blaming others when the fault is really ours. So we are not being penalised for leaving the UK, we are being penalised for being slightly stupid.

Nigelforbes  Agree with a lot of things and yes had a late so- called uncle here who transferred loads of money and he was here about 2003 and yes the exchange rate very high and when I came over it was 73 to the pound.
Yes of course none of us knew where we would end up and yes then no one really anticipated the Brexit when the pound plunged.
TBF  and been heavily involved with the barbaric and fraudulently frozen state pensions whereby we and  our past employers indeed have paid more NI contributions and we certainly did not know about this issue and people are becoming more aware of this but we with our loved ones.
On the plus side have no real complaints and yes lucky to have built for us a property at a very fair exchange rate and price.
No one could have predicted what we would all do and who knows in the future and was only pointing out the ridiculous financials to go back to the UK or wherever.
And yes many have no ties to the UK and no living relatives and not everyone has houses back in the UK because of various circumstances.
Better to have tried but hope to end my days here but one can only cut back so much and all in all no complaints choosing to be here and my wife wanted to come back in 2008 and it was a mutual decision and not being negative (but society certainly is) and could see even then the UK going downhill and yes it was the banking collapse as well.
What I am trying to say that I was laid off again as most of us were and thought we go for it.

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ozz1 Silver Member

ozz1

Posted
Posted

I guess the government will have to do something because it has to hurt exports and tourism at some point meanwhile the Russian currency isn't too bad that and the war is probably why they a flocking here

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zzaa09 Star Member

zzaa09

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Almost back down to 32 in just a matter of 2 months.....amazing intervention.

Sure. 

Strategic manipulation as it's always been.

Any form of worldwide currency exchange is based on illusion.....has little to do with anything of pending worth.

Most are hooked by it. 

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

Sure. 

Strategic manipulation as it's always been.

Any form of worldwide currency exchange is based on illusion.....has little to do with anything of pending worth.

Most are hooked by it. 

Central Banks that operate the Managed Float system are permitted, under IMF rules, to intervene in markets to smooth out the peaks and troughs in the exchange rate. That is their primary role, to manage the currency. There's a big difference between that and currency manipulation, which is something Thailand doesn't need to do via the FOREX system when it already does so very effectively, via the balance of trade account. If the value of imports are always less than exports, the current account will be in surplus, (all things being equal). That means the currency will increase in value.....that's the indirect currency manipulation that the US keeps screaming about, not some piddling selling of USD and buying baht etc that posters keep telling us the elite do so they can buy their chalets in Switzerland, dear God almighty!

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The Theory Gold Member

The Theory

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

prove it?

????

Follow the news and ask yourself why Thai Baht suddenly became strong (from 38 to 33) ?!!! Only because of Chinese tourists are on the way ? ???????? Even they are not here yet !!!!! 

 

Edited by The Theory
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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

Posted
Posted
Just now, The Theory said:

????

Follow the news and ask yourself why Thai Baht suddenly become stronger (from 38 to 33)  ?!!! Only because of Chinese tourists are on the way ? ????????

 

No silly billy, it's because the US Dollar weakened from 115% to 104%. You do know that USD is the worlds reserve currency and that since Thailand is an exporting country, USD effectively determines the value of its exports? Here, I'm posting two pretty pictures for you to study, whilst I eat my dinner. Back soon, lots of love.

 

 

Screenshot (14).png

Screenshot (15).png

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The Theory Gold Member

The Theory

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

No silly billy, it's because the US Dollar weakened from 115% to 104%. You do know that USD is the worlds reserve currency and that since Thailand is an exporting country, USD effectively determines the value of its exports? Here, I'm posting two pretty pictures for you to study, whilst I eat my dinner. Back soon, lots of love.

 

 

Screenshot (14).png

Screenshot (15).png

You hilly billy, that does not explain Thai economy ????

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nigelforbes Platinum Member

nigelforbes

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, The Theory said:

You hilly billy, that does not explain Thai economy ????

Here's a cut and paste from an earlier post today, read it slowly and try to join up the dots, you may need to refer back to the pictures I posted earlier for the penny to drop. I can't play any more tonight but I'll look in and answer your questions tomorrow. Now concentrate man, focus:

 

"Currency value is measured against the key Reserve Currency, USD, the prime relationship is between individual currencies and USD. When USD strengthens, individual currencies appear weaker, even though they haven't changed in value in their own right, per se.

 

USD strengthened earlier this year because the Federal Reserve Bank became hawkish on inflation and let it be known they were going to keep raising interest rates, until inflation was under control. That news attracted capital inflows into USD based assets where they could make a better return, and, it also caused the value of USD to strengthen. Subsequently, markets now have sight of how far and how fast the Fed will increase rates and the value of USD is returning to near normal. 

 

Meanwhile, the Baht went from 30 ish to 38 ish and is now returning to low 30's. Why? Because USD has returned to its near normal level AND because the forecast for the Thai economy is better than many other economies. Why? Because Thailand has a comparatively lower volume of debt than other economies and almost none of it is foreign debt. Plus, Thailand is an export based economy and tourism is classed as an export, export bills are denominated and settled in USD). This means that as tourism has improved and is indeed forecast to improve even further, the current account will be in surplus (more exports than imports) and BOT's foreign currency reserves will increase even further, all of which will cause THB to strengthen. BOT's increases in interest rates were very mild by comparison, probably to help protect consumer debt but also to help narrow the gap between USD and THB and protect capital inflows".

 

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Harveyboy Gold Member

Harveyboy

Posted
Posted
On 1/6/2023 at 8:47 AM, ezzra said:

But how dose all that help us here where commodities and consumer products are steadily going up in price as we speak?...

yep prices up Euro /sterling in freefall a lot of people are going to suffer here ..

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Harveyboy Gold Member

Harveyboy

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, jwest10 said:

Even less to spend on our wonderful Thai families and we supply most of the funds  and the exchange rate and frozen state pension and do not know if any of you have the overseas British site on Facebook but I provided the impossible financials to go back and well it will be impossible for our wives and bad enough to get UK visas 17 years ago.
Yes, they  penalise us for daring to leave the UK to be with our loved ones.
The same in many countries and families are being split up for many reasons but one is the financials and impossible.

well said 

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