Ukraine war: Germany yet to make decision on sending tanks

[candide]

If European countries want to send Leopard tanks, it must be worth it, i.e. together send 200 or 300 tanks. If It's just about sending 50 tanks, It's not worth the trouble for Germany.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 1/21/2023 at 5:36 PM, OneMoreFarang said:

I don't know if it is funny, sad or whatever to read all these comments from the arm-chair-experts.

How many of you are experts in wars, international relations, Russia, Ukraine, Putin, and a lot more?

How many know the history of Ukraine, Russia, the Soviet Union, Germany, the USA and other related countries?

How many know how wars are started, develop and end?

It's so easy to have an opinion of what is good or what is bad. I also have an opinion that there shouldn't be any wars. But somehow the world is not listening to me.

What's the point of all these comments from people who know basically nothing?

Well said about the armchair experts.

 

The Germans have many reasons to not send their tanks to Ukraine, but some don't consider that those tanks would probably escalate the war to something no one wants, and just want them sent anyway.

Wisely, the Germans have said that unless the US sends its tanks, they won't allow Leopards to be sent. Up to the US now, IMO.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics/us-germany-ukraine-tanks-weapons/index.html

In recent days, German officials have indicated they won’t send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine, or allow any other country with the German-made tanks in their inventory to do so, unless the US also agrees to send its M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv – something the Pentagon has said for months it has no intention of doing given the logistical costs of maintaining them.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 1/21/2023 at 5:03 PM, ozimoron said:

More weapons will solve this. Russia can't be trusted to talk. They promised peace in exchange for Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons. They lied. They said they weren't going to invade. They lied. Russia's economy is under severe stress and the effect of the sanctions won't truly be felt until later this year. Now is the time to fight because Russia can't quickly regroup and collect more weapons. Russia is finished as a world power for generations. Until they get rid of Putin or send him to The Hague they will never escape sanctions.

 

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/

 

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88664

 

The literature suggests that a wider coalition of sanctioning countries could substantially increase the costs of sanctions for Russia. The impact of the sanctions is expected to increase gradually and darken Russia’s economic outlook for years to come. But while sanctions are an important tool to restrict Russia’s possibilities to continue the war, other measures are also needed.

 

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/war-and-sanctions-effects-russian-economy

More weapons will solve this.

 

???????????

Is that based on your knowledge of weapons, or the strategy of war? Were you in a command situation in the military to know?

Apparently you assume the Russians don't have good weapons to counter such- how do you know that?

Were you even in the military? Do you understand the logistics and maintenance requirements of any weapons sent to the Ukraine? Do you understand that NATO weapons require different parts than ex Soviet ones?

It's not just a question of supplying X number of tanks or guns- all the parts for maintenance have to be sent too, plus training for the troops using and maintaining them.

[Bkk Brian]

26 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Well said about the armchair experts.

 

The Germans have many reasons to not send their tanks to Ukraine, but some don't consider that those tanks would probably escalate the war to something no one wants, and just want them sent anyway.

Wisely, the Germans have said that unless the US sends its tanks, they won't allow Leopards to be sent. Up to the US now, IMO.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics/us-germany-ukraine-tanks-weapons/index.html

In recent days, German officials have indicated they won’t send their Leopard tanks to Ukraine, or allow any other country with the German-made tanks in their inventory to do so, unless the US also agrees to send its M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv – something the Pentagon has said for months it has no intention of doing given the logistical costs of maintaining them.

Also known as blackmail. Besides which you posted an older report and "Scholz’s spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, denied reports that Germany had insisted it would only deliver Leopard tanks if the U.S. sends its own Abrams tanks."

 

German caution on Ukraine arms is rooted in political culture

On Friday, Germany inched closer to a decision to deliver the tanks, ordering a review of its Leopard stocks in preparation for a possible green light.

There was still no commitment, however. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius rejected the suggestion that Germany was standing in the way but said, “we have to balance all the pros and contras before we decide things like that, just like that.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/21/german-caution-on-ukraine-arms-is-rooted-in-political-culture.html

[Bkk Brian]

The reckoning comes:

Finnish expert says: "Finland must consider extremely carefully the extent to which it should continue to purchase defense materials from Germany." "Finland cannot take the risk [to] be tied to a country that humbles itself in front of the enemy."

https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1616775716145696769?cxt=HHwWgsC8pdS8-O8sAAAA

 

[OneMoreFarang]

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

Some people here clearly know more than others. Some just engage in bloviation about the war being about profits. Citing unproveable and discreditable  motivations rather than acquiring actual knowledge is a lot easier. But that kind of approach might tell us something about the party making them, but little about the actual situation.

Good that we have experts like you who know exactly what is going on and why and how it can be changed to the better.

[placeholder]

23 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Good that we have experts like you who know exactly what is going on and why and how it can be changed to the better.

This is exactly the same arguments that climate change denialists use. There are plenty of actual experts out there whose reports and analyses I follow.

And Ozimoron said it far better than I did. Here it is again for your benefit

"Of course weapons manufacturers make money from selling weapons. Just like big pharma make money selling drugs. That doesn't mean they caused or prolonged the war any more than they caused covid. Russia invaded Ukraine, leaving the western world no choice but to spend money on weapons. These conspiracy theories about it all being the military industrial machine's fault are puerile and simplistic."

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

More weapons will solve this.

 

???????????

Is that based on your knowledge of weapons, or the strategy of war? Were you in a command situation in the military to know?

Apparently you assume the Russians don't have good weapons to counter such- how do you know that?

Were you even in the military? Do you understand the logistics and maintenance requirements of any weapons sent to the Ukraine? Do you understand that NATO weapons require different parts than ex Soviet ones?

It's not just a question of supplying X number of tanks or guns- all the parts for maintenance have to be sent too, plus training for the troops using and maintaining them.

Yes more weapons to Ukraine will solve this. Its just plane logic and no need to have a commanding knowledge of the strategy of war as the experts can also tell us.

 

By now anyone following this of course knows the logistics, training and maintenance required. That's precisely why the US is not supplying Abraham tanks because of the turbine engines, the specialist knowledge needed and they are gas guzzlers.

 

Ukraine Needs These 3 Weapons 'to Win War With Russia'

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-needs-these-3-weapons-win-war-russia-1765337

 

NATO chief: More weapons to Ukraine only way to negotiated peace

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/nato-chief-more-weapons-to-ukraine-only-way-to-negotiated-peace/2791096

 

Time Is on Ukraine’s Side, Not Russia’s The Ukrainians will win if they keep getting better weapons.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/russia-ukraine-weapon-production-nato-supply/672719/

 

[ozimoron]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

More weapons will solve this.

 

???????????

Is that based on your knowledge of weapons, or the strategy of war? Were you in a command situation in the military to know?

Apparently you assume the Russians don't have good weapons to counter such- how do you know that?

Were you even in the military? Do you understand the logistics and maintenance requirements of any weapons sent to the Ukraine? Do you understand that NATO weapons require different parts than ex Soviet ones?

It's not just a question of supplying X number of tanks or guns- all the parts for maintenance have to be sent too, plus training for the troops using and maintaining them.

If the Germans don't send those tanks the war will be escalated. Russia will attack again. If Ukraine has the tanks, Russia is finished, an attack will be futile. They will be forced to withdraw.

Edited January 23, 2023 by ozimoron

[Mickeymaus]

30 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

If the Germans don't send those tanks the war will be escalated. Russia will attack again. If Ukraine has the tanks, Russia is finished, an attack will be futile. They will be forced to withdraw.

In the end, western countries begin to start a war against Russia. Russia will not back down and that could result in a great catastrophe. To be honest, I'm not sure if the Ukraine is worth it. As in any war, some people will benefit. But countless other people will pay. 

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, Mickeymaus said:

In the end, western countries begin to start a war against Russia. Russia will not back down and that could result in a great catastrophe. To be honest, I'm not sure if the Ukraine is worth it. As in any war, some people will benefit. But countless other people will pay. 

The west has no reason to attack Russia. You want to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia? Moldova would be next and the Soviet Union back in business.

[Mickeymaus]

3 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The west has no reason to attack Russia. You want to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia? Moldova would be next and the Soviet Union back in business.

Perhaps it is better for the Ukrainian people to live under Putin than to be dead. Is Zelenskyy with all the corruption so much better than Putin with his corruption?! I do not think so. The West has found a man in Zelenskyy who is ready to fight for the NATO to the end.

[ozimoron]

Just now, Mickeymaus said:

Perhaps it is better for the Ukrainian people to live under Putin than to be dead. Is Zelenskyy with all the corruption so much better than Putin with his corruption?! I do not think so. The West has found a man in Zelenskyy who is ready to fight for the NATO to the end.

The Ukrainians don't want to live under Putin. NATO will never allow Russia to win. The only end is Russia's end, not Ukraine's. Either Russia withdraws or it's finished as a viable nation.

[bannork]

Germany agrees to allow Poland to send its tanks to Ukraine 

 

 

[Mickeymaus]

Just now, ozimoron said:

The Ukrainians don't want to live under Putin. NATO will never allow Russia to win. The only end is Russia's end, not Ukraine's. Either Russia withdraws or it's finished as a viable nation.

If you want to finish Russia this might end in a world war. And this all because of the Ukraine and Zelenskyy? This would be crazy. But wars were often started by crazy people. Countless people suffered because of such idiots and in the end it was good for nothing. Better to get rid of such crazy people before it is too late. I don't want to live under world war conditions and I am certainly part of the majority. 

[Bkk Brian]

25 minutes ago, Mickeymaus said:

Perhaps it is better for the Ukrainian people to live under Putin than to be dead. Is Zelenskyy with all the corruption so much better than Putin with his corruption?! I do not think so. The West has found a man in Zelenskyy who is ready to fight for the NATO to the end.

Did you ask the Ukraine people about that? They do not agree with you. 86% support the action against the Russian terrorists.

 

14 minutes ago, Mickeymaus said:

If you want to finish Russia this might end in a world war. And this all because of the Ukraine and Zelenskyy? This would be crazy. But wars were often started by crazy people. Countless people suffered because of such idiots and in the end it was good for nothing. Better to get rid of such crazy people before it is too late. I don't want to live under world war conditions and I am certainly part of the majority. 

No this is all because of Putin, not Zelensky.

[ballpoint]

On 1/21/2023 at 1:52 PM, billd766 said:

IMHO it would take a lot of high and medium ranking officers who would be willing to refuse to carry out orders given from Putin 

 

They would have to be willing to be executed, or tortured and or jailed.

 

It would be a military coup, but a fairly popular and a very bloody one I think.

It would be bloody, but not in the way many people think it would.  What is required is for a number of high ranking Russian officers, who can see what Putin is doing to their homeland, to openly confront the private militias - mainly the Wagner group, but also a number of others as well, and destroy them.  Destroy their leadership and any rank and file who refuse to officially enrol as Russian army soldiers, or lay down their weapons and return to civilian life, and/or prison.  Now would be the prefect time to do this.  Take out their men while they are facing the Ukrainians in the field and "deal" with their leadership, and those who support them, in Moscow.  No professional Western army would tolerate troops totally outside its command structure fighting, and giving orders to regular army soldiers, on front lines.  Surely there are some professionals in the Russian military command?

[bannork]

Let the leopards loose. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/22/germany-okays-a-dozen-polish-tanks-for-ukraine-hundreds-more-could-follow/

 

[ozimoron]

3 hours ago, Mickeymaus said:

If you want to finish Russia this might end in a world war. And this all because of the Ukraine and Zelenskyy? This would be crazy. But wars were often started by crazy people. Countless people suffered because of such idiots and in the end it was good for nothing. Better to get rid of such crazy people before it is too late. I don't want to live under world war conditions and I am certainly part of the majority. 

This is nuts. How come all the Russia apologists want to say that the continued war is because of Zelensky and the west not wanting to surrender to Russia. Why don't you admit that it's all Putin's fault because he invaded and he won;t stop his aggression?

[thaibeachlovers]

On 1/23/2023 at 4:23 PM, bannork said:

Germany agrees to allow Poland to send its tanks to Ukraine 

 

 

What they said so far is not quite the same as giving permission.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-signals-shift-veto-leopard-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-23/

WARSAW/BRUSSELS Jan 23 (Reuters) - Germany is not blocking the re-export of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, the European Union's top diplomat said on Monday, after Poland vowed to send some as long as other countries did too.

 

If they do send some, I expect they will have to supply all the spares and carry out training for the Ukrainians, not the Germans.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 1/23/2023 at 5:25 PM, ballpoint said:

Surely there are some professionals in the Russian military command?

Lots and who is to say that they do not support the invasion?

[ozimoron]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

What they said so far is not quite the same as giving permission.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-signals-shift-veto-leopard-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-23/

WARSAW/BRUSSELS Jan 23 (Reuters) - Germany is not blocking the re-export of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, the European Union's top diplomat said on Monday, after Poland vowed to send some as long as other countries did too.

 

If they do send some, I expect they will have to supply all the spares and carry out training for the Ukrainians, not the Germans.

I believe Germany will not restrict parts to Poland. That must be implicit in their statement that they will not oppose transfer of the tanks.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 1/23/2023 at 8:05 PM, bannork said:

Let the leopards loose. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/22/germany-okays-a-dozen-polish-tanks-for-ukraine-hundreds-more-could-follow/

 

Don't get too excited. IMO no country is going to send more than it needs for it's own protection.

 

BTW, does Ukraine have hundreds of trained tank and maintenance crews waiting?

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Don't get too excited. IMO no country is going to send more than it needs for it's own protection.

 

BTW, does Ukraine have hundreds of trained tank and maintenance crews waiting?

You think that Ukrainians aren't already being trained in Poland and Germany? The tanks only need to be returned to Poland for serious maintenance issues.

 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/ukrainian-soldiers-to-start-training-for-german-leopard-2-tanks/2793612

 

New training programs in Poland could get some Ukrainian soldiers ready to operate Leopard 2 Main Battle Tanks in combat in as few as six weeks, experts told Breaking Defense, although officers and maintenance specialists would take longer. The tanks themselves could be another story.

 

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/01/ukrainian-troops-could-fight-with-leopard-2s-by-early-spring-experts/

Edited January 24, 2023 by ozimoron

[bannork]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3657957-rheinmetall-ready-to-send-139-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine.html

[still kicking]

On 1/23/2023 at 11:24 AM, Mickeymaus said:

If you want to finish Russia this might end in a world war. And this all because of the Ukraine and Zelenskyy? This would be crazy. But wars were often started by crazy people. Countless people suffered because of such idiots and in the end it was good for nothing. Better to get rid of such crazy people before it is too late. I don't want to live under world war conditions and I am certainly part of the majority. 

Trump lover?

[Bkk Brian]

34 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

What they said so far is not quite the same as giving permission.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-signals-shift-veto-leopard-tanks-ukraine-2023-01-23/

WARSAW/BRUSSELS Jan 23 (Reuters) - Germany is not blocking the re-export of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, the European Union's top diplomat said on Monday, after Poland vowed to send some as long as other countries did too.

 

If they do send some, I expect they will have to supply all the spares and carry out training for the Ukrainians, not the Germans.

Training 3 - 6 weeks. Not long at all.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-military-technology-european-union-germany-611c4cddd142db39e44f4091a4d4adbc

[thaibeachlovers]

15 minutes ago, still kicking said:

Trump lover?

Trump is not any part of this thread. Deflecting?

[ozimoron]

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius indicated Tuesday that a decision could be imminent, revealing that he had "expressly encouraged partner countries that have Leopard tanks that are ready for deployment to train Ukrainian forces on these tanks".

"I expect a decision to be made shortly," he added ahead of a meeting with Stoltenberg in Berlin.

Stoltenberg welcomed the "clear message" from the minister, "because after a decision has been taken on the delivery on battle tanks, it will take some time to... make them ready" and to train Ukrainian soldiers to use them.

 

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/germany-says-allies-can-begin-training-ukraine-to-use-leopard-tanks-3719931

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by ozimoron

[placeholder]

On 1/23/2023 at 9:55 AM, Mickeymaus said:

In the end, western countries begin to start a war against Russia. Russia will not back down and that could result in a great catastrophe. To be honest, I'm not sure if the Ukraine is worth it. As in any war, some people will benefit. But countless other people will pay. 

I guess if I were to ask you for a link, you'd offer up your crystal ball.