UK economy only G7 nation to shrink in 2023 - IMF

[kwilco]

It now appears that the UK is actually lagging behind even Russia - according to the IMF.

of the post Brexit trade deals, 73 were "rubber stamps"

Oz and NZ are new but tiny and the Ozone is set to damage UK farmers.

No deal with the US and no deal anywhere near te horizon.

No deal with India

Investment in the UK has stalled

There are 330,000 less workers, 20,000 in the HS and 9000 Gps missing. since free movement was ended.

UK is the only major economy that is smaller after te pandemic

Brexiteers should be ashamed!

[JayClay]

9 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

the uk has  replied is a crock of a ***** report

Of course they have. Convincing people that black is white has been the only thing the conservatives have been historically good at.

 

Luckily there's less and less people now prepared to believe the government 's lies. Even the tories can't convince people that everything is fine when said people can't even afford to feed and clothe themselves.

[bannork]

 

[The Old Bull]

8 hours ago, Credo said:

It seems like Brexit was a bad idea.  A very bad idea.

 

Brexit was a con job sold to the UK public because the EU was threatening to go after offshore money hidden in Jersey and the Cayman Islands etc. The elites did a good job of selling Brexit to the great unwashed.

[Chongalulu]

12 hours ago, candide said:

B.S! They have always employed the best economists in their research department, including a few Nobel prizes! ????

Economists were invented to make astrologists look good ! ???? 

[bannork]

Ex Tory donor admits Brexit is a pile of old croc.

 

[JayClay]

1 hour ago, nchuckle said:

Economists were invented to make astrologists look good ! ???? 

To be fair even an astrologist probably has a much better handle on what'll happen in the future than the average brexit voter.

[Chomper Higgot]

5 hours ago, nchuckle said:

Economists were invented to make astrologists look good ! ???? 

Well the Tories gave us an example of trying to re-write the economic model.

 

They crashed the pound, came within hours of destroying the nation’s pensions industry and delivered a PM term in office less than the shelf life of Lettuce.

 

 

[kwilco]

Somebody tried to say that the FTSIE 500 had actually improved since Brexit.

They overlooked that this index includes businesses around the world.

If you look at the UK domestic FTSIE 250 it has dropped between 25 and 30 %.

This clearly shows that the rich financial fat cats are making a killing out of Brexit, whereas local and smaller businesses  are losing out big time

[Chomper Higgot]

16 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Somebody tried to say that the FTSIE 500 had actually improved since Brexit.

They overlooked that this index includes businesses around the world.

If you look at the UK domestic FTSIE 250 it has dropped between 25 and 30 %.

This clearly shows that the rich financial fat cats are making a killing out of Brexit, whereas local and smaller businesses  are losing out big time

Correct, UK business are struggling:

 

57% of UK’s small businesses at risk of closure in 2023.

 

Not a sunlit upland in sight.

 

https://www.businessleader.co.uk/57-of-uks-small-businesses-at-risk-of-closure-in-2023/

Edited February 1, 2023 by Chomper Higgot

[transam]

37 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Well the Tories gave us an example of trying to re-write the economic model.

 

They crashed the pound, came within hours of destroying the nation’s pensions industry and delivered a PM term in office less than the shelf life of Lettuce.

 

 

I wonder how it would have been if Labour got the chance.............????

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, transam said:

I wonder how it would have been if Labour got the chance.............????

Why not stick with the reality we have?

[youreavinalaff]

1 hour ago, transam said:

I wonder how it would have been if Labour got the chance.............????

We will never know.

 

Corbyn's Brexit policy was all over the place. Starmer only ever criticised Covid policies after the event without offering his own ideas and now he and his front bench spend most of their resources going over and over events after they've been done and dusted. 

 

Some elections coming up in May. Labour might, only might, come up with some ideas and let people know what they are and how they'll pay for them 

 

I truly hope they do. Iw will be nice to weigh up their policies before I decide where to put my X.

[RayC]

1 hour ago, transam said:

I wonder how it would have been if Labour got the chance.............????

Patience, dear boy. We will most likely see how Labour manages the economy in a couple of years time.????

[youreavinalaff]

39 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

Certainly "whoosh! "as far as Chomper was concerned! ???? 

The life and soul of any party. That's for sure. ????????????????

[Chongalulu]

2 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

The life and soul of any party. That's for sure. ????????????????

"You’ll always find me in the kitchen at parties" ???? 

[metisdead]

Off topic deflection posts and the replies have been removed, this topic is about:

 

UK economy only G7 nation to shrink in 2023 - IMF

[Chongalulu]

32 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

You can dismiss it as culture war wongering all you like.

 

Most people see it as an attack on women's rights. They don't want Biological men in women's prisons, winning women's athletics competitions etc. 

 

Given that half the population is women, it's a very real issue if he cannot define a woman or seeks to destroy their safety/rights in the way Sturgeon is doing in Scotland.

 

It seems like Labour is going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory yet again.

Exactly,I think Chomper's view is very one dimensional,seeing only the aspect through the prism of the stale political left wing narrative     he is obsessed with .

[stevenl]

3 hours ago, nchuckle said:

Exactly,I think Chomper's view is very one dimensional,seeing only the aspect through the prism of the stale political left wing narrative     he is obsessed with .

So you don't have any arguments to contradict so decided to play the man.

[CG1 Blue]

On 1/31/2023 at 8:20 AM, Chomper Higgot said:

Which is why verifiable data is so much more informative.

Verifiable data, or guesswork? As others have said, these are purely forecasts by a body with a questionable past (Legarde etc) and a pretty awful record. 

 

IMF shows poor track record at forecasting recessions

However, a closer look at its record on reading the future suggests it is unlikely they will accurately predict even how many economies will expand or contract this year. 

“All macroeconomic forecasters are poor at predicting downturns,” David Turner, head of the economics department at the OECD told the FT. 

https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498

 

 

 

[candide]

2 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Verifiable data, or guesswork? As others have said, these are purely forecasts by a body with a questionable past (Legarde etc) and a pretty awful record. 

 

IMF shows poor track record at forecasting recessions

However, a closer look at its record on reading the future suggests it is unlikely they will accurately predict even how many economies will expand or contract this year. 

“All macroeconomic forecasters are poor at predicting downturns,” David Turner, head of the economics department at the OECD told the FT. 

https://www.ft.com/content/60581224-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498

 

 

 

Obviously you have not read or understood the article. Actually, it even in the title: recessions.

 

An article under paywall, but based on this paper which can be downloaded freely. Interestingly enough, it is an IMF research paper.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/03/05/How-Well-Do-Economists-Forecast-Recessions-45672

Yes, economists are poor at predicting recessions (or downturns), that is periods of significant change, and usually tended to be too optimistic. As shown in the paper, the IMF record is not worse than others, such as Consensus.

 

The paper doesn't conclude they are poor at predicting anything (under the limit of the exercise, which is an attached probability). Only significant recessions.

 

In the case of the 2023 report, It's not about predicting a recession, as It's a short-term forecast under conditions which are not expected to change. So your remark is not relevant for the OP topic (unless you claim that unexpected events may even create a harsher recession).

Edited February 1, 2023 by candide

[RayC]

3 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Verifiable data, or guesswork?

 

Neither.

 

Forecasts should be based on a sound methodology, verifiable data and stated assumptions. Forecasts are very seldom totally correct but, more often than not, they usually offer a good indication of the direction of travel.

 

In any event, l'm a lot more inclined to believe in these types of forecast than those based on the fact that one local supermarket, pub, etc. happens to be doing a roaring trade.

[Chomper Higgot]

10 hours ago, nchuckle said:

Exactly,I think Chomper's view is very one dimensional,seeing only the aspect through the prism of the stale political left wing narrative     he is obsessed with .

Baiting again.

 

I believe a reminder of the topic of discussion has been give, I’m not it.

Edited February 1, 2023 by Chomper Higgot

[Chongalulu]

13 hours ago, stevenl said:

So you don't have any arguments to contradict so decided to play the man.

Because you have failed to see/understand the argument running through the thread it is rather the shortcoming in your comment,not mine. 

[Chongalulu]

5 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Baiting again.

 

I believe a reminder of the topic of discussion has been give, I’m not it.

No,just strait forward  observation .

[Denim]

[bannork]

And now the UK's like

 A setting sun,

Exports gone, gone.

The damage done.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

7 minutes ago, bannork said:

And now the UK's like

 A setting sun,

Exports gone, gone.

The damage done.

 

 

It’s not good news for the car industry:

 

A bit of a blow to the BREXIT voting North East.

 

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/01/25/cars/uk-car-production/index.html

[candide]

40 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

It’s not good news for the car industry:

 

A bit of a blow to the BREXIT voting North East.

 

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/01/25/cars/uk-car-production/index.html

The NE is one of the regions most affected by Brexit, in particular because the dependence of its industry from EU markets.

 

Contrary to the title of a song by a famous rock band, they have been fooled again, it seems.

[stevenl]

12 hours ago, nchuckle said:

Because you have failed to see/understand the argument running through the thread it is rather the shortcoming in your comment,not mine. 

You're right, I don't see the argument because there is no valid one.