UK economy only G7 nation to shrink in 2023 - IMF

[Chomper Higgot]

9 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

If the majority were surveyed. I doubt they were 

Again, the lack of understanding of how statistics works raises its head.

 

This might help:

 

https://www.qualtrics.com/uk/experience-management/research/determine-sample-size/

[youreavinalaff]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Again, the lack of understanding of how statistics works raises its head.

 

This might help:

 

https://www.qualtrics.com/uk/experience-management/research/determine-sample-size/

Not really. 

 

I have mentioned many times of my personal experiences. Never have I mentioned numbers.

 

You debunked my experiences just because you didn't like them. Nothing to do with sample size.

 

Had I said, "I saw a few people in the supermarket that appeared to be struggling financially. I believe they are choosing between heating and eating" you would have been all over it like a rash and commending me. However, because my experiences were the opposite, you immediately refused to believe.

[RayC]

41 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

If the majority were surveyed. I doubt they were 

Once again, I don't understand your point. If by majority, you mean a majority of the electorate then no, that would not have been the sample size.

 

However, assuming that a survey is well-designed, a relatively small sample will allow conclusions be made about the larger population.

[Chomper Higgot]

31 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

Not really. 

 

I have mentioned many times of my personal experiences. Never have I mentioned numbers.

 

You debunked my experiences just because you didn't like them. Nothing to do with sample size.

 

Had I said, "I saw a few people in the supermarket that appeared to be struggling financially. I believe they are choosing between heating and eating" you would have been all over it like a rash and commending me. However, because my experiences were the opposite, you immediately refused to believe.

Not at all.

 

You have your experiences, data from numerous reputable sources, including the ONS, contradict the experiences you report.

 

That data is verifiable.

[youreavinalaff]

16 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Not at all.

 

You have your experiences, data from numerous reputable sources, including the ONS, contradict the experiences you report.

 

That data is verifiable.

No, they don't. 

 

They actually contradict your views.

 

Remember you said " I'm in the UK. It is bleak". The structure of the sentence refers to the UK as a whole. The links you provide are generally based on averages and parts of the population and tge UK. My experiences refer to a part of the UK. I never suggested my experiences cover the UK as a whole, as yours have.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

37 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

No, they don't. 

 

They actually contradict your views.

 

Remember you said " I'm in the UK. It is bleak". The structure of the sentence refers to the UK as a whole. The links you provide are generally based on averages and parts of the population and tge UK. My experiences refer to a part of the UK. I never suggested my experiences cover the UK as a whole, as yours have.

 

 

You made that point earlier, and I have provided verifiable data from reputable sources, including the ONS.

 

The views I have expressed are consistent with the data from these sources.

 

Feel free to present data that substantiates the experiences/observations you report.

 

[ozimoron]

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2023/02/05/exp-gps-0205-fareeds-take-solution-for-britain.cnn

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, RayC said:

Once again, I don't understand your point. If by majority, you mean a majority of the electorate then no, that would not have been the sample size.

 

However, assuming that a survey is well-designed, a relatively small sample will allow conclusions be made about the larger population.

I think when you say conclusions what you really mean is guesses as that is what all these surveys are they take the answers from a very small number of people sometimes less than 1500

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, youreavinalaff said:

"Value as data". 

 

Data comes from the people. Polls, surveys and the like. Who's to know if what Transam saw is not part of a survey?

 

See what I'm saying? The views you deem unconfirmable  are part of the data you deem confirmable.

 

There's so much wrong here it's hard to know where to begin or end. But consider this: what evidentiary value does a poll consisting  of one person have? To follow your line of thinking, apparently some. This is mathematically ridiculous.

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, vinny41 said:

I think when you say conclusions what you really mean is guesses as that is what all these surveys are they take the answers from a very small number of people sometimes less than 1500

I think you should take up your quarrel with mathematicians and tell them what they're getting wrong.

[youreavinalaff]

53 minutes ago, placeholder said:

There's so much wrong here it's hard to know where to begin or end. But consider this: what evidentiary value does a poll consisting  of one person have? To follow your line of thinking, apparently some. This is mathematically ridiculous.

One person? 

 

I don't recall ever mentioning numbers. As I believe I have previously mentioned.

[vinny41]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

I think you should take up your quarrel with mathematicians and tell them what they're getting wrong.

No quarrel old bean but you have confirmed what I stated was correct it is impossible to take the responses from a small group of people and apply an algorithm and state that applies for the majority of people in a country

[placeholder]

20 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

No quarrel old bean but you have confirmed what I stated was correct it is impossible to take the responses from a small group of people and apply an algorithm and state that applies for the majority of people in a country

Actually, you do have a quarrel with me. Of course, it's possible. Political polling, which gets lambasted all the time, actually come quite close to predicting actual outcomes. Statistics couldn't be done in any useful way was it not valid to use small samples.

[RayC]

9 hours ago, vinny41 said:

I think when you say conclusions what you really mean is guesses as that is what all these surveys are they take the answers from a very small number of people sometimes less than 150

 

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

No quarrel old bean but you have confirmed what I stated was correct it is impossible to take the responses from a small group of people and apply an algorithm and state that applies for the majority of people in a country

If what you say is correct then governments and businesses the world over are wasting their money conducting market research.

 

Apologies for being blunt but it appears that you have no understanding of sampling theory, survey design or statistics in general.

[puchooay]

4 hours ago, RayC said:

 

If what you say is correct then governments and businesses the world over are wasting their money conducting market research.

 

Apologies for being blunt but it appears that you have no understanding of sampling theory, survey design or statistics in general.

 

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

Actually, you do have a quarrel with me. Of course, it's possible. Political polling, which gets lambasted all the time, actually come quite close to predicting actual outcomes. Statistics couldn't be done in any useful way was it not valid to use small samples.

Interesting comments. About as accurate as polls, it would appear. Here are a few glaring examples:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

 

https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/performance-of-the-polls-in-the-eu-referendum/

 

g.ft.com/elections/uk/2017/polls/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/why-the-opinion-polls-were-wrong-in-the-2015-general-election

[Chomper Higgot]

6 hours ago, vinny41 said:

No quarrel old bean but you have confirmed what I stated was correct it is impossible to take the responses from a small group of people and apply an algorithm and state that applies for the majority of people in a country

If you believe that then I suggest you think very carefully before getting on an aircraft against. 
 

Nobody tested 100% of all the components to make sure they’re strong enough, including the bolts that hold the engines on.

 

The manufacturers used the very same sampling maths as are used to sample the opinions populations.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

22 minutes ago, puchooay said:

 

Interesting comments. About as accurate as polls, it would appear. Here are a few glaring examples:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

 

https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/performance-of-the-polls-in-the-eu-referendum/

 

g.ft.com/elections/uk/2017/polls/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/why-the-opinion-polls-were-wrong-in-the-2015-general-election

Putting aside the concept of ‘margin of error’, there is another issue with voter polls that are published in the immediate run up to elections.

 

The published poll results themselves Drive media coverage and in turn that impacts voter turnout.

 

This is obviously a bigger issue when the polls are indicating a close run race, as with BREXIT.

 

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/323018021.pdf

 

 

[puchooay]

2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Putting aside the concept of ‘margin of error’, there is another issue with voter polls that are published in the immediate run up to elections.

 

The published poll results themselves Drive media coverage and in turn that impacts voter turnout.

 

This is obviously a bigger issue when the polls are indicating a close run race, as with BREXIT.

 

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/323018021.pdf

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Putting aside the concept of ‘margin of error’, there is another issue with voter polls that are published in the immediate run up to elections.

 

The published poll results themselves Drive media coverage and in turn that impacts voter turnout.

 

This is obviously a bigger issue when the polls are indicating a close run race, as with BREXIT.

 

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/323018021.pdf

 

 

That's quite funny. Prior to me pointing out a few glaring examples of how sampling doesn't work, there were no issues. Now there are issues. Wriggle aids by the looks of things. 

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, puchooay said:

 

That's quite funny. Prior to me pointing out a few glaring examples of how sampling doesn't work, there were no issues. Now there are issues. Wriggle aids by the looks of things. 

I was pointing out broader issues around your post.

 

If you don’t make a post, nobody can comment on it.

 

That’s how discussion works.

 

 

[youreavinalaff]

5 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I was pointing out broader issues around your post.

 

If you don’t make a post, nobody can comment on it.

 

That’s how discussion works.

 

 

LMAO.

 

Polls and sampling work. Until another poster shows they can be erroneous. Then there are suddenly "broader issues".

 

You are wasting my time. I just spat my tea out laughing. I have to go and make another one now.

[candide]

27 minutes ago, puchooay said:

 

That's quite funny. Prior to me pointing out a few glaring examples of how sampling doesn't work, there were no issues. Now there are issues. Wriggle aids by the looks of things. 

A particular poll may be inaccurate (within a margin of error). However, when successive polls show the same trend, the trend cannot be wrong.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/

Edited February 6, 2023 by candide

[placeholder]

18 hours ago, youreavinalaff said:

Not really. 

 

I have mentioned many times of my personal experiences. Never have I mentioned numbers.

 

You debunked my experiences just because you didn't like them. Nothing to do with sample size.

 

Had I said, "I saw a few people in the supermarket that appeared to be struggling financially. I believe they are choosing between heating and eating" you would have been all over it like a rash and commending me. However, because my experiences were the opposite, you immediately refused to believe.

Another mind reader. And apparently also an inhabitant of the meta-verse  who can see alternate pasts. Remarkable.

[youreavinalaff]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Another mind reader. And apparently also an inhabitant of the meta-verse  who can see alternate pasts. Remarkable.

Don't need to be a mind reader to understand how you and a couple of others on here work.

[placeholder]

27 minutes ago, candide said:

A particular poll may be inaccurate (within a margin of error). However, when successive polls show the same trend, the trend cannot be wrong.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/

To reinforce your point here's what's called a poll of the polls before Brexit. Pro-Brexit got a lot stronger towards the end.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, youreavinalaff said:

Don't need to be a mind reader to understand how you and a couple of others on here work.

Not surprised that you offer contrary to fact statements as some kind of proof. You might want to educate yourself about the validity of contrary to fact assertions:

https://www.palomar.edu/users/bthompson/Hypothesis Contrary to Fact.html

[youreavinalaff]

25 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Not surprised that you offer contrary to fact statements as some kind of proof. You might want to educate yourself about the validity of contrary to fact assertions:

https://www.palomar.edu/users/bthompson/Hypothesis Contrary to Fact.html

No need to.

 

I'm quite capable of assessing yours and others' responses to all posts on this thread.

 

[DaLa]

22 hours ago, transam said:

Would you like, "millions are in poverty" better......?

 

Now how about addressing 86% of the UK hold passports to venture afar, yet you create the impression of poverty for millions in the UK...

Your poverty is cannot afford the new iPhone, an Indian takeaway, a new car...

This is poverty.....

 

 

Poverty is a serious matter Transam. I know  from experience,  indeed for 6 years before collecting my pensions I was one of the billions of UK poor, identified as such because my income level was below the recognised threshold at the time.

 

Meanwhile I was holidaying 3 times a year and travelling business class.

 

Strange what statistics can be shown to prove. Your picture holds many times more proof of your point than most of the rhetoric on here.

Edited February 6, 2023 by DaLa
Missing sentence.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, DaLa said:

Poverty is a serious matter Transam. I know  from experience,  indeed for 6 years before collecting my pensions I was one of the billions of UK poor, identified as such because my income level was below the recognised threshold at the time.

 

Meanwhile I was holidaying 3 times a year and travelling business class.

 

Strange what statistics can be shown to prove. Your picture holds many times more proof of your point than most of the rhetoric on here.

Yeas poverty is a serious matter.

 

“Meanwhile I was holidaying 3 times a year and travelling business class.”

 

You’ve convinced me, though perhaps not of that which you intended.

[RayC]

4 hours ago, puchooay said:

 

Interesting comments. About as accurate as polls, it would appear. Here are a few glaring examples:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

 

https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/performance-of-the-polls-in-the-eu-referendum/

 

g.ft.com/elections/uk/2017/polls/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/why-the-opinion-polls-were-wrong-in-the-2015-general-election

So some polls have called things wrong in the past therefore all polls will be incorrect. Interesting logic.

[hotandsticky]

4 minutes ago, RayC said:

So some polls have called things wrong in the past therefore all polls will be incorrect. Interesting logic.

 

 

It is certainly a good starting point.

 

What has happened previously is often the best indicator of what will happen in the future.

 

 

Anybody who puts too much store by polls is an idiot.