“Softening of demand after April” – Phuket hoteliers worry about bookings

[snoop1130]

PHOTO: Phuket's Nai Harn beach

 

Phuket’s tourist arrival numbers have stabilised after the pre-Christmas/new year surge in passenger arrivals at Phuket International Airport. Since the middle of December, arrival data shows that Phuket is welcoming 10-15,000 passengers a day. Since the middle of January, the daily arrivals have flatlined, indicating an easing of demand as both the western and Chinese New Year holidays are now passed.

 

Whilst Phuket hoteliers and tour group operators are cheering on the influx of visitors back to the island, there are some disturbing trends which may threaten Phuket’s sustainable tourist revival for the rest of 2023.

 

First and foremost is the enormous influx of Russian visitors which started during October last year and has just increased with, now, nearly 1 in 3 arrivals to the island are from Russian ports.

 

From the start of November through to February 9, nearly 300,000 Russian travellers have come through Phuket’s immigration turnstiles. People from The Russian Federation are eligible for a 45 visa waiver, followed by a possible extension for another 30 days (after March 31, 2023 the visa waiver will revert to 30 days on arrival plus 30 day extension, unless the Thai government extends the promotion).

 

Never in Phuket’s history has there been such a concentration of one nationality contributing to the daily arrival figures. Even in the heyday of mass Chinese tourism, the concentration of Chinese tourists never reached beyond 28% in Phuket. That “eggs-in-on-basket” situation was tested after the July 2018 sinking of the ‘Phoenix’ south of Phuket where 47 Chinese tourists drowned. The bad publicity from that incident caused a steep drop off of Chinese visitors, poking a large hole in the tourist arrivals for at least the rest of 2018.

 

Speaking to a leading hotelier, who asked not to be identified, Phuket-GO were told that is a marked softening demand in forward bookings after April.

 

“Bookings have been brisk since the start of December last year but, compared to pre-Covid booking figures, we’re noticing a big drop off in demand after April, which is concerning.”

 

Villa owners, car rental companies and visa agents have also reported an enormous surge of demand from Russian clientele, pushing up rental prices around the island.  One local agent, specialising in sales to Russian customers, says that most slack in the Phuket property market has now “well and truly” been taken up, forcing prices higher as a result.

 

“I fear many people in Phuket’s tourism business are just happy to be filling up their pockets again, from wherever the tourists are coming from, and not looking at the trends. The local hotels and tour stakeholders have made this mistake before with the influx of Chinese visitors in the decade before the pandemic.”

 

Source: https://phuket-go.com/phuket-news/phuket-news/softening-of-demand-after-april-phuket-hoteliers-worry-about-bookings/

 

-- © Copyright Phuket GO 2023-02-09

 

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[engamann]

Russians , expensiv air ticket and very strong Thai baht keep many away i would think.

[Karma80]

What you mean that demand is softening after the high season ends? Who would have thought!

But the Russians are well and truly everywhere in Phuket and the enterprising sign writers are starting to churn out things in Russian is seems.

I applaud my Ukrainian neighbour who has made them feel at home with Ukrainian flag draped over the balcony.

[phetphet]

Don't worry. If Putin has another call up for his expected Spring offensive, there will be another surge of long stay Russian tourists.

[ThailandRyan]

14 minutes ago, phetphet said:

Don't worry. If Putin has another call up for his expected Spring offensive, there will be another surge of long stay Russian tourists.

And the PM Prayut has said there will be 30 million arrival's by years end..whose telling porkies and dreaming...

Edited February 9, 2023 by ThailandRyan

[nigelforbes]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

And the PM Prayut has said there will be 30 million arrival's by years end..whose telling porkies and dreaming...

BOT has estimated 25 million, conventional forecast currently estimate 23 mill. Anything over 20 mill. is a bonus.

[LivinginKata]

51 minutes ago, Karma80 said:

What you mean that demand is softening after the high season ends? Who would have thought!

But the Russians are well and truly everywhere in Phuket and the enterprising sign writers are starting to churn out things in Russian is seems.

I applaud my Ukrainian neighbour who has made them feel at home with Ukrainian flag draped over the balcony.

Yes I have neighbour apart block with Ukraine flag. Tricky for us as we rent to Ukraine and Russians.  Aint no love/talk between them

[whereyougo]

1 hour ago, phetphet said:

Don't worry. If Putin has another call up for his expected Spring offensive, there will be another surge of long stay Russian tourists.

Not true except for a low percentage. Jomtien is jam packed with russians all pushing prams. These are not wealthy draft dodgers. They Must return to their jobs 

[stevenl]

10 minutes ago, whereyougo said:

Not true except for a low percentage. Jomtien is jam packed with russians all pushing prams. These are not wealthy draft dodgers. They Must return to their jobs 

Here the same, many are online workers who will not be returning.

Edited February 9, 2023 by stevenl

[stevenl]

1 hour ago, Karma80 said:

What you mean that demand is softening after the high season ends? Who would have thought!

But the Russians are well and truly everywhere in Phuket and the enterprising sign writers are starting to churn out things in Russian is seems.

I applaud my Ukrainian neighbour who has made them feel at home with Ukrainian flag draped over the balcony.

With the Chinese there was no high or low season.

The Russians are occupying condos, many long stayers who don't spend on the touristy things.

[3NUMBAS]

1 hour ago, phetphet said:

Don't worry. If Putin has another call up for his expected Spring offensive, there will be another surge of long stay Russian tourists.

hes running out of male  bodies for the meat grinder many have already left for dubais

[Elkski]

Wow so Russians buying up villas?  Record % of one nationality? Higher than Chinese ever did?  Maybe so much money they will be getting long stay Visa's?  Staying long term via elite visa, starting companies, or however.  I would imagine it would be a good idea to get much of your wealth out now. 

Overall interesting. 

When I was there in Jan I thought I saw some and wondered if they were on leave from the front.    

[London Lowf]

1 hour ago, Karma80 said:

What you mean that demand is softening after the high season ends? Who would have thought!

Exactly - happens every year!

[stevenl]

4 minutes ago, London Lowf said:

Exactly - happens every year!

In the recent tourism years, so pre covid, there was no low season anymore due to Chinese booking year round.

[London Lowf]

12 minutes ago, stevenl said:

In the recent tourism years, so pre covid, there was no low season anymore due to Chinese booking year round.

I believe that you have skin in the game and so have your finger on the pulse more than me but, if that's the case, why do hotel tariffs have "seasons" at all?

[stevenl]

9 hours ago, London Lowf said:

I believe that you have skin in the game and so have your finger on the pulse more than me but, if that's the case, why do hotel tariffs have "seasons" at all?

The group packages the Chinese tourgroups are using are a whole different ballgame and not related to the general pricing. For the general public, yes, there is a high and low season with pricing accordingly.

[phetphet]

14 hours ago, whereyougo said:

Not true except for a low percentage. Jomtien is jam packed with russians all pushing prams. These are not wealthy draft dodgers. They Must return to their jobs 

Samui is now full of long staying Russians. So much so that someone in the property rental business told me they don't have enough property to keep up with demand.

The international schools now have a large contingent of Russian children and the shopping malls and gyms are full of them.  

One even told a friend that living here is like being in Russia, but by the sea.

 

Nothing wrong with that. I wouldn't want to be there with all the economic sanctions biting or the threat of being called up to fight a war. 

 

 

 

 

[xylophone]

18 hours ago, whereyougo said:

Jomtien is jam packed with russians all pushing prams

Did they leave their wives at home then??

[madmitch]

18 hours ago, stevenl said:

In the recent tourism years, so pre covid, there was no low season anymore due to Chinese booking year round.

That's not right Steven. Businesses that catered to Chinese tourists had less of a low season but for those that didn't there was a normal low season and prices reflected this.

[bangon04]

20 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

And the PM Prayut has said there will be 30 million arrival's by years end..whose telling porkies and dreaming...

"Despite the current tourist numbers being around half of the average arrival numbers of 2019, the government is confident the tourists will start returning"

[whereyougo]

4 hours ago, xylophone said:

Did they leave their wives at home then??

?? 

[Woof999]

It seems annual travel patterns have a yearly cycle.

 

Who'd have thunk it?

[stevenl]

5 hours ago, madmitch said:

That's not right Steven. Businesses that catered to Chinese tourists had less of a low season but for those that didn't there was a normal low season and prices reflected this.

That post you reacted to was in reference to the numbers, please follow the discussion.
Later when the talk went to prices I posted this
 

Quote

The group packages the Chinese tourgroups are using are a whole different ballgame and not related to the general pricing. For the general public, yes, there is a high and low season with pricing accordingly.

 

[Tropposurfer]

Yep posters ... monsoon cusp downturn ... all naturally predictable, nothing to see here.

 

I'm so grateful to have my own home here now. I simply have almost zero pain in the you know where with the tourist hoards.

 

Its a source of gratitude to not be a tourist here now, an alien yes but a tourist no lol ????

 

Bang T. is much busier and even the Thais (jaded and cynical often with the tourists) seem to be a tad looser and happier with more baht in their 'dilly-bags'.

Nai Thon is definitely busier these days (and since the Ukraine crime there are are more Ruskies) for sure but early morning for my laps of the beach is still super quiet.

Meal at Bocconcino Bang T. last weekend and had to book days ahead as they were booked out which we have never had happen before. Place was buzzin' with lots of Ruskies and the usual Euro kaleidoscope present.