Thailand records economic slowdown as decline in exports outweigh tourism gain

[nigelforbes]

17 minutes ago, Freed1948 said:

Always negative.

Whoosh!

[peter zwart]

Perhaps it is recommended for those lightballs to visit Aseannow more often. We predicted this a year ago already. ????
 

[Blumpie]

8 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The real money ???? are betting against you, with airport expansion already well underway in Phuket, Don Muang, Swampy and Utapao.

Soon 40 million tourist will arrive again, then 50 million.....

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/thailand-to-expand-major-airports-to-deal-with-rising-tourist-numbers

Absolutely and past 2024 I have no predictions.  In the short term tourism will chug along but its nowhere near the numbers that they are hoping for.

50 million people in Thailand would be terrible.  They were at capacity already so I'm not sure where they are going to stay.  And when it gets over 40 million prices will further increase.  

I mean it is what it is and I could very well be wrong.  

[it is what it is]

 

some countries would be very happy with 2.6% growth

[bokningar]

13 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Many people take several trips a year.  I foresee them taking one instead, if at all.  

I agree that pricing in arrival fees is silly but that's not what a traveller sees when they want to go to Thailand, nor do they necessarily care.  The airfare and the hotel cost is going to drive down demand, I guarantee it.  And its hardly a profound statement, its not only common sense it's something that we are seeing in all countries around.  

It is no longer easy, fun, or inexpensive to fly.  Indeed it's the opposite - its stressful and expensive now.  Id be very pessimistic on buying stocks related to tourism.  (airline stocks are not included in this)

I don't think the 300 thb is the big problem here. If you ad 1 more hour of waiting to pay it to the time waiting to get true immigration. And the higher price of flying. And in many national parks a 100 % rice in the enterense fee Thailand will lose its attraction for a lot of people. 

[hotchilli]

20 hours ago, mikeymike100 said:

Yes you are correct, the price of flights is still way too high for many, still 100-200 % above what they were, pre - covid? Many folks were able to fly because they hadn't been able to for two years, or so, and had saved up and were eager to travel? Unless the price of flights reduces significantly I believe some people still won't and will wait?

Agreed, the airlines are hiking up the flight costs to off-set losses over the previous 3 years.

Those with money will travel but other on a budget are staying closer to home.

It's going to take at least this year to lower prices and get people moving again.

Thailand economy needs attention to boost the GDP, not be so reliant on tourism, which should be seen as a bonus.

[nigelforbes]

20 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Seems the decline in exports is also being seen with the swing in the baht

According to a BOT MPC study:

 

 “Overall exports value appears to have no correlations with exchange rate movements.”

 

A weak Baht does however have a negative effect on the Thai economy because imports, particularly oil, become more expensive. Those costs negatively affect the Thai economy as a whole, transportation, wages, production costs and energy, all cost more.

 

“The impact of exchange rates on the Thai economy can be two fold. On the one hand, an

abrupt appreciation or a continued strengthening trend may weaken the country’s price competitiveness or reduce export revenue in baht terms _{Note: this is why BOT intervenes in the FOREX market to smooth out ekas and troughs in the exchange rate}. These, in turn, affect wages in export oriented firms and consumers’ purchasing power due to their lower income, which may eventually result in slower economic growth.  Nevertheless, these channels are only one side of the coin when assessing impact of exchange rates on the Thai economy. On the other hand, exchange rate appreciation helps lower producers’ import costs of raw materials as well as delaying an increase in consumers’ costs of living, especially when global energy prices swiftly increase.”

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/BOX_MRP/BOX_MPR_June2018_2.pdf

[daveAustin]

TL;DR 

Sort your currency out!!!

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, daveAustin said:

TL;DR 

Sort your currency out!!!

I have been sorted and flush for years...lol. fluctuations like a roller coaster in the exchange rates should rarely occur in giant swings like they have since Last October.  I don't need to transfer money but for those that do because of the inflation and economy I see there happiness as well as there frustration living on a fixed income.  Thailand unlike other countries speaks daily about their GDP expectations, tourism number expectations, how many billions and trillions the visitors will spend and so on with revised forecasts monthly. One person says this another that and many times they are in contrast with each other. Economic detractors abound and the economies of almost all countries are unstable. Will the west be hit with a recession or a slow fall is all we hear about and the interest rates keep climbing as the Fed tries to stave off a sharp drop yet unemployment and layoffs in the thousands keep occurring, so just how can these folks travel without funds to cover costs at home and abroad. It's like balancing on a Seesaw. It should all balance out in the end. If one has not saved for that rainy day then they are in a world of hurt when sharp fluctuations, like we are seeing now, hit. But then that's just my view. I hedge my bets on things I can see not predictions and speculation, which are synonymous by the way.

 

Read this this morning and this is where speculation does occurr.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/080613/effects-currency-fluctuations-economy.asp

 

A strong domestic currency exerts drag on the economy, achieving the same result as a tighter monetary policy (i.e. higher interest rates). In addition, further tightening of monetary policy at a time when the domestic currency is already strong may exacerbate the problem by attracting hot money from foreign investors seeking higher yielding investments (which would further strengthen the domestic currency)

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by ThailandRyan

[jacko45k]

13 hours ago, connda said:

Good.  Let's see the THB drop against the USD.

And it has been since the start of the month. 

[nigelforbes]

17 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

I have been sorted and flush for years...lol. fluctuations like a roller coaster in the exchange rates should rarely occur in giant swings like they have since Last October.  I don't need to transfer money but for those that do because of the inflation and economy I see there happiness as well as there frustration living on a fixed income.  Thailand unlike other countries speaks daily about their GDP expectations, tourism number expectations, how many billions and trillions the visitors will spend and so on with revised forecasts monthly. One person says this another that and many times they are in contrast with each other. Economic detractors abound and the economies of almost all countries are unstable. Will the west be hit with a recession or a slow fall is all we hear about and the interest rates keep climbing as the Fed tries to stave off a sharp drop yet unemployment and layoffs in the thousands keep occurring, so just how can these folks travel without funds to cover costs at home and abroad. It's like balancing on a Seesaw. It should all balance out in the end. If one has not saved for that rainy day then they are in a world of hurt when sharp fluctuations, like we are seeing now, hit. But then that's just my view. I hedge my bets on things I can see not predictions and speculation, which are synonymous by the way.

Prediction and speculation are different words that mean different things. You hedge your bets based on predictions, not on speculations. 

 

Prediction is to estimate the future based on evidence.

 

Speculation, in economic terms, is to guess or gamble on the future but without evidence.

 

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, Lorenzo Valla said:

Another self-appointed 'guardian' here to explain to the simpletons what they want them to know.  The OP contains only percentages based upon prior years/quarters performance, vice the actual numbers.  The decision to do that was made intentionally and it was made to mislead.

 

'What you need to know about tourism in Thailand....arrivals are up X% year-on-year in a clear sign of an improving economy...blah, blah, blah'

 

If someone knocks out 10 of your teeth three years ago, and then last year gives you back 5, is it accurate to say that year on year you've had an increase in teeth?  It is if you take out the context and use percentages.

Learn about Thai Tourism, the Baht and the Thai economy and then get back to me:

 

 

[Adumbration]

Big problems in the new few months in destinations such as Phuket, Krabi and Patts when they realise that refugees are not properly classified as tourists.

[NoshowJones]

On 2/18/2023 at 10:29 AM, ikke1959 said:

If the articles are too expensive because of the strong THB people will by less or find other cheaper suppliers... That is  normal economy.. The so called strong THB is damaging a lot although some think different...expats get less income, tourist have to pay more for hotels etc as they get also less THB for their currency.....Happily the THB is weaking now

The Baht won't weaken much as long as this unelected PM and his soldiers are "running" the country, this has been proved time and again over the last 9 years.

[NoshowJones]

On 2/18/2023 at 11:05 AM, Blumpie said:

It's weakening because the greenback is so strong.  recession fears.  When the recession ends or doesn't arrive the THB will go right back up as will most currencies.  

So the Thai will go back up to near where it was when the unelected PM and his soldiers stole the country?? Yes! and ???????????? they will start flying.

[ThailandRyan]

4 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Prediction and speculation are different words that mean different things. You hedge your bets based on predictions, not on speculations. 

 

Prediction is to estimate the future based on evidence.

 

Speculation, in economic terms, is to guess or gamble on the future but without evidence.

 

Give it a rest. Admit your mistaken and move on.

 

https://thesaurus.plus/related/predict/speculate

 

Predict and Speculate

Related words

mutual synonyms collocations

Predict 

Predict verb - To tell of or describe beforehand.

  

Speculate and predict are semantically related. in forecast topic. In some cases you can use "Speculate" instead a verb "Predict".

 

Now it's done...the end and aloha.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

Big problems in the new few months in destinations such as Phuket, Krabi and Patts when they realise that refugees are not properly classified as tourists.

It will be like a sucker punch to the TAT and the economy as belts tighten due to funds diminishing for certain classes.

[Rimmer]

Some baiting and bickering posts have been removed

[Mavideol]

when there is an offensive there is always a counter offensive.... appreciate baht to take advantage of tourists buying it to visit the place but that will adversely affect the exports as their (Thai) goods become more expensive thus no longer competitive with competition..... it's a loosing game, they can't win  555

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

when there is an offensive there is always a counter offensive.... appreciate baht to take advantage of tourists buying it to visit the place but that will adversely affect the exports as their (Thai) goods become more expensive thus no longer competitive with competition..... it's a loosing game, they can't win  555

A BOT MPC study in 2018, found that:

“Overall exports value appears to have no correlations with exchange rate movements.”

 

It has long been said by most people that a stronger Baht make exports more expensive and less attractive, the last part appears not to be the case.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/BOX_MRP/BOX_MPR_June2018_2.pdf

[ikke1959]

30 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

A BOT MPC study in 2018, found that:

“Overall exports value appears to have no correlations with exchange rate movements.”

 

It has long been said by most people that a stronger Baht make exports more expensive and less attractive, the last part appears not to be the case.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/BOX_MRP/BOX_MPR_June2018_2.pdf

So that is news....surely because it is from Thailand

[GinBoy2]

I think the biggest issue, and it's one which affects many 2nd and 3rd world countries is onshoreing.

 

Western nations after decades of being addicted to cheap manufactured goods from Asia got a huge wake up call in the past few years as supply chains buckled

 

In the US the trend to bring back manufacturing is intense, additionally fueled by the badly named 'Inflation Reduction Act' who's sole purpose is to subsidize  domestic manufacturing.

 

That has awakened the EU who are now also considering similar measures

 

If you get rid of sweat shop manufacturing in SE Asia, there ain't enough tourists on the globe to fill that void 

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

A BOT MPC study in 2018, found that:

“Overall exports value appears to have no correlations with exchange rate movements.”

 

It has long been said by most people that a stronger Baht make exports more expensive and less attractive, the last part appears not to be the case.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/BOX_MRP/BOX_MPR_June2018_2.pdf

opinions may differ from that "old" study made in Thailand by the Bank Of Thailand (BOT)... am not going to expand my comments but other studies do, somehow, agree there's a correlation between exports and exchange rates, if there was/is no correlation why exports slow down when a country has a strong currency, I guess I am going against my promise of not expanding my comments but here we go... by any chance, maybe u r to young,  do you remember when the USD was extremely strong and Europeans could not afford or didn't want to buy US made goods, do you by any chance remember when the Euro first was implement at a very high exchange rate Vs the USD that Germany could not ship/sale Mercedes/BMW/Porch to the USA, the French could not sell wine  nor cheese, just to mention a few cases, maybe there is(after all) a correlation between exports and exchange rates, just saying that anything and everything is possible, more so when speaking about Thailand

[nigelforbes]

Just now, Mavideol said:

opinions may differ from that "old" study made in Thailand by the Bank Of Thailand (BOT)... am not going to expand my comments but other studies do, somehow, agree there's a correlation between exports and exchange rates, if there was/is no correlation why exports slow down when a country has a strong currency, I guess I am going against my promise of not expanding my comments but here we go... by any chance, maybe u r to young,  do you remember when the USD was extremely strong and Europeans could not afford or didn't want to buy US made goods, do you by any chance remember when the Euro first was implement at a very high exchange rate Vs the USD that Germany could not ship/sale Mercedes/BMW/Porch to the USA, the French could not sell wine  nor cheese, just to mention a few cases, maybe there is(after all) a correlation between exports and exchange rates, just saying that anything and everything is possible, more so when speaking about Thailand

I'm 73, how old do I need to be?

 

The study is five years old, do you really think that much that relates to this subject has changed in that time, if so, what?

 

If you would have asked me, until I read that study, I would have said they were correlated but the study says they appear not to be. The reports suggests the reasons for this include - "Diverse impact across businesses Low value-added businesses face greater impact - Foreign demand has a greater role than exchange rates". What I think that last part says is that foreign demand outweighs price. The first part seems to suggest that the diverse range of impacts means that low value add businesses do suffer but higher pnes do not.

 

If you have links to other studies that show that, in the case of the Thai economy, the BOT study is wrong and the answer is the opposite, I'd like to see them, I suspect some how that I won't!

 

[Mavideol]

6 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

I'm 73, how old do I need to be?

 

The study is five years old, do you really think that much that relates to this subject has changed in that time, if so, what?

 

If you would have asked me, until I read that study, I would have said they were correlated but the study says they appear not to be. The reports suggests the reasons for this include - "Diverse impact across businesses Low value-added businesses face greater impact - Foreign demand has a greater role than exchange rates". What I think that last part says is that foreign demand outweighs price. The first part seems to suggest that the diverse range of impacts means that low value add businesses do suffer but higher pnes do not.

 

If you have links to other studies that show that, in the case of the Thai economy, the BOT study is wrong and the answer is the opposite, I'd like to see them, I suspect some how that I won't!

 

no I don't have links as it's of no interest but since we have the same age, quite sure you agree with some of my comments which u didn't answer, however u did mention "appear not to be".... let's keep it there

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, ikke1959 said:

So that is news....surely because it is from Thailand

Yes ikke, it's from the Thai Central Bank, who else would commission a study of Thai exports!!!

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

no I don't have links as it's of no interest but since we have the same age, quite sure you agree with some of my comments which u didn't answer, however u did mention "appear not to be".... let's keep it there

Oh wait.... the report says, "exports value appears to have no correlations", those are not my words they are what is written in the report!!!

 

As for your questions: I answered your question about why exports don't slow, why other reports show that they do I can't answer because you haven't posted any for me to read and comment on so how would I know.

 

And as far as your questions about remembering USD, Euro, the US etc, as interesting as they may be they are still not Thailand which is the subject being discussed here. Different countries will behave in different ways for different reasons, I don't believe for one moment there is one single reason that applies across all countries.

 

 

 

 

[metisdead]

A post with a link to a disallowed source has been removed.

 

Some baiting troll posts and the replies have been removed.

[zzaa09]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

Oh wait.... the report says, "exports value appears to have no correlations", those are not my words they are what is written in the report!!!

 

As for your questions: I answered your question about why exports don't slow, why other reports show that they do I can't answer because you haven't posted any for me to read and comment on so how would I know.

 

And as far as your questions about remembering USD, Euro, the US etc, as interesting as they may be they are still not Thailand which is the subject being discussed here. Different countries will behave in different ways for different reasons, I don't believe for one moment there is one single reason that applies across all countries.

 

 

 

 

Been well noted, historically, that most particular currency exchange rates are often and intentionally manipulated in-house for the obvious stability reasoning. A practice that has continued for ages and has little to do with a truer reflective value to whatever the standard trading currency is being pushed. Wealth is in the eye of the beholder. Comparative numbers, values and wealth are largely make believe. 

 

More curious might be the growing influence of BRICS and how the paradigm shift will change most everything regarding the effects on middle ground economies such as Thailand - which path will they take and most beneficial. 

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, zzaa09 said:

Been well noted, historically, that most particular currency exchange rates are often and intentionally manipulated in-house for the obvious stability reasoning. A practice that has continued for ages and has little to do with a truer reflective value to whatever the standard trading currency is being pushed. Wealth is in the eye of the beholder. Comparative numbers, values and wealth are largely make believe. 

 

More curious might be the growing influence of BRICS and how the paradigm shift will change most everything regarding the effects on middle ground economies such as Thailand - which path will they take and most beneficial. 

I suspect there is some agreed orchestration by Central Banks across the board, rules that we don't always see but as you say, exist for stability purposes. Your point about comparative numbers is also well taken. The global economy is a million part machine where all parts move at different speeds in different directions. Trying to take a snap shot of that at any point in time is at best an estimation. Individual economies are the same thing but on a lesser, yet still monumental scale. Attempting to piece those million parts together is nevertheless interesting and even fun, albeit probably impossible to do with any precision.

 

I'm not sure I even understand the BRICS risk fully, the big development I see is the EAS and ASEAN ++ trading group that includes China and Japan, that group is rapidly pulling trade away from a USD base and in Thailand's case, accounts for about 75% of its trade. A ways down the road is the threat to pricing all exports in USD, even one day, oil.....that will be interesting.