China’s new foreign minister warns of certain US-Chinese war if Washington fails to reverse course

[webfact]

China’s newly installed Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang this week warned that the United States was on course for war with China unless it abruptly changed direction. The newly appointed minister dismissed talk of ‘guardrails’ to prevent such an eventuality saying US policy was on the ‘wrong path’ as President Xi Jinping told the National People’s Congress in Beijing that the United States and its allies were attempting to suppress China.

 

by Joseph O' Connor

Escalating war in Ukraine could trigger a Chinese grab for Taiwan as the United States turns the economic screws on Beijing and tries to engineer a two-speed world economy by isolating authoritarian countries under its new Indo-Pacific framework. This week’s warning from Qin Gang came just after taking up office. He dismissed American suggestions that it wanted to simply compete robustly with China while installing ‘guardrails’ to prevent a conflict as unacceptable to Beijing which seeks freedom to pursue its goals, including those related to Taiwan which Mr Qin stressed was a ‘red line’ for communist China.

China’s new Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang has stated bluntly that unless the United States changes its policy towards China, then war between the two countries is inevitable. He called for Washington to revert to its policy towards the middle kingdom pursued up until the Trump presidency in 2017. It comes as a new hardline leadership took over in Beijing as the National People’s Congress met to rubber stamp a third presidential term for President Xi Jinping who has promised the party that he will bring Taiwan back under Beijing’s rule by military means if necessary, a prospect now openly speculated upon by US intelligence agencies as China’s military might grows and a corresponding alliance forms against it led by the United States.

 

As China’s President Xi Jinping, on Friday, accepted a third term as president with the country’s National People’s Congress, a rubber stamp parliament or legislature, meeting in Beijing, his newly installed Minister of Foreign Affairs pulled no punches in his opening remarks after assuming the role this week, warning of war between the United States and China.

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2023/03/10/china-new-foreign-minister-qin-gang-warns-of-war/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2023-03-11

 

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[candide]

However...

 

Total value of U.S. trade in goods (export and import) with China from 2012 to 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/277679/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-with-china-since-2006/

[spidermike007]

It does appear as if China eventually wants war with not only the US, but most of the Pacific region. They appear to want to regain the dominance and glory they experience in the long distant past. Their belligerence and arrogance knows no end. Xi is a vicious, megolamaniacal madman. 

 

The real problem for them, is the lack of a long range navy, and deep sea ports. Few nations (for now, anyway) seem to want to offer them the ability to re-supply or refuel, anywhere. I don't thing they are considered a reliable ally. 

 

The lack of visible, publicly available evidence of Chinese basing progress in Africa has fueled skepticism, with some commentators suggesting that concern about such basing efforts is overblown. This is understandable, but it overlooks the secretive nature and substantial timelines associated with these diplomatic and military negotiations. One just has to look closely enough and understand that China has a patient, long-term approach to achieving its global military ambitions.

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/16/china-military-bases-africa-navy-pla-geopolitics-strategy/

 

 

[nigelforbes]

I find it hard to understand who the aggressors are in all of this, there's some cause and effect involved.

[internationalism]

around a year ago noam chomsky replied in an interview "If war between usa and china brakes up, we are doomed". That is a course for a full blown nuclear war.

China has now 400 warheads, within the next few years  planning for another 600. They are large strategic ones.

And they have now more intercontinental ballistic missiles, than the usa

https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/stratcom-says-china-has-more-icbm-launchers-than-the-united-states/ 

 

yet the usa still don't know what "red line" is

 

[Tug]

They certainly seem to be on the expansion and want everyone to let them worrisome indeed 

[RichardColeman]

Maybe they could buy a few more of Hunter's paintings and donate to the 'Big Man' to calm things down ? 

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Maybe they could buy a few more of Hunter's paintings and donate to the 'Big Man' to calm things down ? 

Biden has by far done the most to penalize China for its transgressions. Far, far more than his predecessor.

[seajae]

like everything else coming out of china this is just more  sh*t, the only thing china has made that has lasted any length of time is covid. They like to think they are a lot more than they actually are by stealing all their technology from others and that threatening everyone else makes them a lot more than they really are, their arrogance far out weighs their real ability, they may have brainwashed their own people into believeing that they are superior to the rest of the world  but that doesnt work outside china

[internationalism]

19 minutes ago, seajae said:

like everything else coming out of china this is just more  sh*t, the only thing china has made that has lasted any length of time is covid. They like to think they are a lot more than they actually are by stealing all their technology from others and that threatening everyone else makes them a lot more than they really are, their arrogance far out weighs their real ability, they may have brainwashed their own people into believeing that they are superior to the rest of the world  but that doesnt work outside china

over thousands years, since neolithic, they have invented many ground braking technologies - paper, print, gun powder, compass, artillery, banknote, bomb, toothbrush.

Full list of hundred pages, you can catch up with history, which you missed in your school studies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_inventions

[spidermike007]

China is facing major financial issues, that could eventually collapse the entire CCP. The extent of the issues within the banking sector, and the amount of private debt is staggering. 

 

Ever since the deleveraging campaign started, investors have been disappointed in consistently expecting Beijing to bail them out. Even today, with the property sector’s woes mounting, investors are openly discussing what level of defaults or economic and financial stress will require Beijing to finally step in. But as losses are now plausible for investors in trust products, wealth management products, structured deposits, state-owned enterprises’ corporate bonds, banks themselves, and individual mortgages, there are not many asset classes remaining that carry unassailable promises of government support.

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-slow-motion-financial-crisis-unfolding-expected

 

The current real estate crisis is the most severe the regime has met for a long time, but the recent new injection of liquidity may buy time and stabilize the market for a while. Even though, another round of instability is bound to occur. Many sectors could be the epicenter of the next tremor: it could be real estate again if it turns out that the faith of the public in ever-rising prices for property has been destroyed for good; or the financial sector, where there are many poorly managed small local banks and where some non-bank financial institutions are not as strongly regulated as banks; or the individual borrowers' segment (household debt has been rising too fast), or parts of the corporate segment (SOE debt is still growing); or perhaps, and most likely, the local governments, which suffer from a dramatic loss of revenues. 

 

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/chinas-next-financial-crisis-matter-when-not-if

 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I find it hard to understand who the aggressors are in all of this, there's some cause and effect involved.

I think China's claim that the South China Sea is essentially Chinese property and the actions it has taken to lay claims to islands close to Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines  establish pretty clearly who the aggressor is. Also the attacks it has launched on India in the Himalayas.

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

China’s new Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang has stated bluntly that unless the United States changes its policy towards China, then war between the two countries is inevitable.

Bluff.

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I think China's claim that the South China Sea is essentially Chinese property and the actions it has taken to lay claims to islands close to Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines  establish pretty clearly who the aggressor is. Also the attacks it has launched on India in the Himalayas.

Yes, perhaps, although it's not as clear cut as that. Trade and the US's position on Taiwan and other issues, the SCMP article from mid 2022 makes some good points:

 

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3180335/american-aggression-needs-be-reined-good-asia-and-world

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I find it hard to understand who the aggressors are in all of this, there's some cause and effect involved.

The aggressors would be the countries that has been involved in wars.

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Yes, perhaps, although it's not as clear cut as that. Trade and the US's position on Taiwan and other issues, the SCMP article from mid 2022 makes some good points:

 

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3180335/american-aggression-needs-be-reined-good-asia-and-world

Unfortunately that comment is behind a paywall. I did get glimpses and what I saw seems to be empty rhetoric. He blames Biden for the lack of strong gun control laws in the US. He accuses the US of racism in regards to China. So, as far as I can tell, it's mostly frothing. Not that there aren't legitimate and powerful reason to condemn various aspects of US foreign policy. But the points I spotted certainly aren't among them.

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, internationalism said:

around a year ago noam chomsky replied in an interview "If war between usa and china brakes up, we are doomed". That is a course for a full blown nuclear war.

China has now 400 warheads, within the next few years  planning for another 600. They are large strategic ones.

And they have now more intercontinental ballistic missiles, than the usa

https://fas.org/blogs/security/2023/02/stratcom-says-china-has-more-icbm-launchers-than-the-united-states/ 

 

yet the usa still don't know what "red line" is

 

I'm not religious just remember quotes everytime news comes like this it reminds of what was written  " Beware the yellow peril "  

I always thought it refered to the Sun. 

[bangon04]

However painful it will be, the only thing which will solve the problem of a nuclear war is a real Cold War. Give the Chinese what they want - a real Cold war. (and while you are at it, suck up the pain and do it for Russia too.)

[farmerjo]

If global corporations lost 240 billion pulling out of Russia,the amount would be staggering from China.

[BangkokReady]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

He dismissed American suggestions that it wanted to simply compete robustly with China while installing ‘guardrails’ to prevent a conflict as unacceptable to Beijing which seeks freedom to pursue its goals, including those related to Taiwan which Mr Qin stressed was a ‘red line’ for communist China.

"Let us invade and occupy Taiwan and much of the South China sea, including territory disputed with multiple countries, or it's war."

 

Knowing China, it's probably just a bluff.  America's interest is the only thing keeping these countries safe.  I'm sure they aren't going to bow down.

[BangkokReady]

3 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I find it hard to understand who the aggressors are in all of this, there's some cause and effect involved.

China are the aggressors.  Everyone else wants to be left alone, China wants to invade them, America wants to stop them.

[internationalism]

46 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

I'm not religious just remember quotes everytime news comes like this it reminds of what was written  " Beware the yellow peril "  

I always thought it refered to the Sun. 

if you mean the story book on which the usa presidents have to swear, it contain also a newer passages about sickles made into plowshares.

How about over 800 american military bases around the world can be interpreted in that passage context? How many military bases china has around the world? I don't know of any.

Possible that very same book says something about the red lines not to be crossed. 

It is religious hypocritical nuts with their book swearing zealous historical missions who often cause wars, and not the peace loving atheists 

[internationalism]

35 minutes ago, bangon04 said:

However painful it will be, the only thing which will solve the problem of a nuclear war is a real Cold War. Give the Chinese what they want - a real Cold war. (and while you are at it, suck up the pain and do it for Russia too.)

we are already in the cold war for many years now.

And now on the brink of 3ww.

Cold war well might lead to nuclear war. Not intentional, but by an accident, malfunction, wrong interpretation of supposed attack. There are numerous acts which were just minutes to global annihilation. The last one was in 1995, so after the cold war has ended. A norwegian meteorological rocket was interpreted as a nuclear strike, the nuclear box in kremlin was opened once again.

So that 90 second to big boom on an a dumsday clock will be moved another tens of second.

[Kwasaki]

10 minutes ago, internationalism said:

if you mean the story book on which the usa presidents have to swear it contain also a newer passages about sickles made into plowshares.

How over 800 american military bases around the world can be interpreted in that book context?

Possible that very same book says something about the red lines not to be crossed. 

It is religious hypocritical nuts with their zealous historical missions who often cause wars, and not the peace loving atheists 

Agree good call,  I'm more of an agnostic but still law of the jungle if it comes to it. 

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

China is facing major financial issues, that could eventually collapse the entire CCP. The extent of the issues within the banking sector, and the amount of private debt is staggering. 

 

Ever since the deleveraging campaign started, investors have been disappointed in consistently expecting Beijing to bail them out. Even today, with the property sector’s woes mounting, investors are openly discussing what level of defaults or economic and financial stress will require Beijing to finally step in. But as losses are now plausible for investors in trust products, wealth management products, structured deposits, state-owned enterprises’ corporate bonds, banks themselves, and individual mortgages, there are not many asset classes remaining that carry unassailable promises of government support.

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-slow-motion-financial-crisis-unfolding-expected

 

The current real estate crisis is the most severe the regime has met for a long time, but the recent new injection of liquidity may buy time and stabilize the market for a while. Even though, another round of instability is bound to occur. Many sectors could be the epicenter of the next tremor: it could be real estate again if it turns out that the faith of the public in ever-rising prices for property has been destroyed for good; or the financial sector, where there are many poorly managed small local banks and where some non-bank financial institutions are not as strongly regulated as banks; or the individual borrowers' segment (household debt has been rising too fast), or parts of the corporate segment (SOE debt is still growing); or perhaps, and most likely, the local governments, which suffer from a dramatic loss of revenues. 

 

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/chinas-next-financial-crisis-matter-when-not-if

 

 Manipulating statistics always backfire no matter who is in charge.  Xi and his CCP evidently think that cooking the books will not have any serious repercussions.  They might fool their countrymen, but will soon discover that breaking the basic rules of fiscal management is inviting disaster.

[ozimoron]

The US isn't threatening to invade other countries, China is. 

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

I think China's claim that the South China Sea is essentially Chinese property and the actions it has taken to lay claims to islands close to Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines  establish pretty clearly who the aggressor is. Also the attacks it has launched on India in the Himalayas.

Their claims are rooted in a historical context, and have nothing to do with reality, current politics, or real borders. It is pure Chinese hubris, combined with the intoxication that comes from newfound power and influence. 

[Hawaiian]

5 hours ago, internationalism said:

if you mean the story book on which the usa presidents have to swear, it contain also a newer passages about sickles made into plowshares.

How about over 800 american military bases around the world can be interpreted in that passage context? How many military bases china has around the world? I don't know of any.

Possible that very same book says something about the red lines not to be crossed. 

It is religious hypocritical nuts with their book swearing zealous historical missions who often cause wars, and not the peace loving atheists 

Djibouti is one, Cambodia is another.  They are attempting to establish one in the Solomon Islands.  And the sovereignty of the artificial islands in the South China Sea are in dispute.  The Belt and Road Initiative has given the Chinese a foothold in Sri Lanka and Pakistan and other Central Asian countries.

[Kwasaki]

5 hours ago, ozimoron said:

The US isn't threatening to invade other countries, China is. 

No they run out of countries to invade at the moment they letting another country do it for them at the moment. ????

[Hummin]

9 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

It does appear as if China eventually wants war with not only the US, but most of the Pacific region. They appear to want to regain the dominance and glory they experience in the long distant past. Their belligerence and arrogance knows no end. Xi is a vicious, megolamaniacal madman. 

 

The real problem for them, is the lack of a long range navy, and deep sea ports. Few nations (for now, anyway) seem to want to offer them the ability to re-supply or refuel, anywhere. I don't thing they are considered a reliable ally. 

 

The lack of visible, publicly available evidence of Chinese basing progress in Africa has fueled skepticism, with some commentators suggesting that concern about such basing efforts is overblown. This is understandable, but it overlooks the secretive nature and substantial timelines associated with these diplomatic and military negotiations. One just has to look closely enough and understand that China has a patient, long-term approach to achieving its global military ambitions.

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/16/china-military-bases-africa-navy-pla-geopolitics-strategy/

 

 

 

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

China is facing major financial issues, that could eventually collapse the entire CCP. The extent of the issues within the banking sector, and the amount of private debt is staggering. 

 

Ever since the deleveraging campaign started, investors have been disappointed in consistently expecting Beijing to bail them out. Even today, with the property sector’s woes mounting, investors are openly discussing what level of defaults or economic and financial stress will require Beijing to finally step in. But as losses are now plausible for investors in trust products, wealth management products, structured deposits, state-owned enterprises’ corporate bonds, banks themselves, and individual mortgages, there are not many asset classes remaining that carry unassailable promises of government support.

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-slow-motion-financial-crisis-unfolding-expected

 

The current real estate crisis is the most severe the regime has met for a long time, but the recent new injection of liquidity may buy time and stabilize the market for a while. Even though, another round of instability is bound to occur. Many sectors could be the epicenter of the next tremor: it could be real estate again if it turns out that the faith of the public in ever-rising prices for property has been destroyed for good; or the financial sector, where there are many poorly managed small local banks and where some non-bank financial institutions are not as strongly regulated as banks; or the individual borrowers' segment (household debt has been rising too fast), or parts of the corporate segment (SOE debt is still growing); or perhaps, and most likely, the local governments, which suffer from a dramatic loss of revenues. 

 

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/chinas-next-financial-crisis-matter-when-not-if

 

China need to expand, it is the nature of continuous growing economy. The west suffer from double morality where the same have been done both peacefully and with arms.

 

Japan and South Korea is our strongest allies, but what the rest of the region? Africa, middle east? 

 

Europe's wealth depending on China as well, but our security depending on Nato. 

 

India is not interested in supporting Europe, and for good reasons, both the history and also their growth depending on keeping their hands out of a future conflicts with China even their border conflicts is still very much alive with China or should we say Xhina?

 

Thailand and Philippines? Can we be sure which side they will take in a real conflict? Vietnam, cambodia and laos?