Economy is in the tank, banks are reeling, inflation is sky-high and there's more Biden isn't telling you

[nigelforbes]

Just now, Skipalongcassidy said:

I love the words "typically" and "good quality" and "could have"... my gold did... my other investment accounts ok but not triple... and have lost considerable value since your hero Joe has been in office.

Too funny. I'm a Brit., I don't have any political hero's West of Ireland!

 

I've done well out of investment funds for the past couple of decades, it's important to chose carefully and for me, that means a good geographical spread with less than 40% in US equities. For that reason, who ever is in office over there is of little consequence or interest to me, or my investments.

 

[Presnock]

On 4/12/2023 at 12:55 PM, ozimoron said:

What to do? Build a wall? That worked last time. The real solution is to interdict in the countries like Guatemala to correct the push factors driving immigration.

what to do?  IMHO our congress should not allow any illegal immigrant to ever become a US citizen until they are a legal immigrant and the same for all of their family including any birth in the US ( a necessary change tot he law too).  2nd, those that come into the borders and claim asylum should not be allowed to remain free in the US as it takes several years for the courts to even hear their case and from what I have read, by then the US immigration doesn't even really know where any of these folks are.  Our immigration laws are the easiest just about in the "free" world as so many do make it to the US and find greater opportunities than in their own country.  After all, the US is a nation for the most part on immigrants but times have changed somewhat and too many crimes are now involved in getting to the US and then remaining there for innocent and criminals alike.   We need greater efforts to curb drug use and control of immigrants.  my opinion anyway but I am so against the US politicians as it appears to me from what I read daily from around the world politicians of almost all nations are nothing but leeches that are more concerned with being re-elected than they are in solving the problems of their countries.

[Presnock]

22 hours ago, placeholder said:

"Congress must abide by that." Really? How does that work?

34 states agreeing to change the constitution on term limits for congress men/women would be legal under our constitution and state's rights.  There has been legal activity more and more recently so hopefully this will come to fruition.  Seems to me it is time for a new generation of Americans to run the govt as today's politicians seem to be more interested in getting funds for reelection than for doing their job to fix our problems such as budget, immigration, illegal drug spreading, etc.

 

[heybruce]

2 hours ago, Skipalongcassidy said:

From $750/ounce to $2045/ounce... to date I have tripled my money... the stock market has not done that.

Not quite tripled, and if you had bought when the S&P was under 1500 would have done as well or better.  The index was under that from around October 2008 through October 2009, and dipped below a couple of times after that.

 

Granted that would have involved astute or lucky market timing, but not nearly as astute or lucky as buying gold at $750/oz.  https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

 

In general the US economy is a better long term investment than gold.

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, heybruce said:

Not quite tripled, and if you had bought when the S&P was under 1500 would have done as well or better.  The index was under that from around October 2008 through October 2009, and dipped below a couple of times after that.

 

Granted that would have involved astute or lucky market timing, but not nearly as astute or lucky as buying gold at $750/oz.  https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

 

In general the US economy is a better long term investment than gold.

Disagree. Cherry-picking time windows does not help that much. All these classes have their days of glory but...  

 

"When looking at gold vs. stocks, the yellow metal has moved from $35 an ounce to almost $2,000 in 50 years, providing an average gain of 8.8% a year to long-term investors. In the same timeframe, the S&P 500 gained an average of 7.6%."

https://moneyandmarkets.com/buying-gold-vs-stocks/

 

Most of the rises in the SP and other main indexes have occurred over the last 15 years in a crazy cycle, greatly assisted by loony low interest rates and magic money printing. Now the Fed is trapped and damage will happen whether it raises rates more (stocks) or cut them back, (with returning inflation), or worse. 

 

The chickens are home to roost and the outlook is bad either way.

If you have any gold, keep hold - as my granny used to say.

Bless her.

Edited April 14, 2023 by nauseus

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Presnock said:

34 states agreeing to change the constitution on term limits for congress men/women would be legal under our constitution and state's rights.  There has been legal activity more and more recently so hopefully this will come to fruition.  Seems to me it is time for a new generation of Americans to run the govt as today's politicians seem to be more interested in getting funds for reelection than for doing their job to fix our problems such as budget, immigration, illegal drug spreading, etc.

 

Yet you managed not to mention the Constitution even once in your original post. And I would love for a new generation to run since poll after poll shows that they are far more progressive in their politics than older generations. I'm sure you are thrilled about that.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Disagree. Cherry-picking time windows does not help that much. All these classes have their days of glory but...  

 

"When looking at gold vs. stocks, the yellow metal has moved from $35 an ounce to almost $2,000 in 50 years, providing an average gain of 8.8% a year to long-term investors. In the same timeframe, the S&P 500 gained an average of 7.6%."

https://moneyandmarkets.com/buying-gold-vs-stocks/

 

Most of the rises in the SP and other main indexes have occurred over the last 15 years in a crazy cycle, greatly assisted by loony low interest rates and magic money printing. Now the Fed is trapped and damage will happen whether it raises rates more (stocks) or cut them back, with returning inflation), or worse. 

 

The chickens are home to roost and the outlook is bad either way.

If you have any gold, keep hold - as my granny used to say.

Bless her.

What you don't seem to understand is that the price of gold was artificially fixed at $35 because of the gold standard until Nixon let it float. 

Actually a lot of the rises in stocks occurred because Republicans legalized stock buybacks which before than were rightfully considered price manipulation.

[nauseus]

14 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What you don't seem to understand is that the price of gold was artificially fixed at $35 because of the gold standard until Nixon let it float. 

Actually a lot of the rises in stocks occurred because Republicans legalized stock buybacks which before than were rightfully considered price manipulation.

Well you said it - artificially fixed!

 

Buybacks legal since 1982 - so what?

[placeholder]

Just now, nauseus said:

Well you said it - artificially fixed!

 

Buybacks legal since 1982 - so what?

But the only came to be used in a big way far more recently. And do I really have to explain to you why that is stock price manipulation? And why it used to be illegal?

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

But the only came to be used in a big way far more recently. And do I really have to explain to you why that is stock price manipulation? And why it used to be illegal?

It doesn't matter - same effect - mad valuations.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

It doesn't matter - same effect - mad valuations.

Well, it does matter if you don't acknowledge, as you originally didn't, its effect on stock prices.

[nauseus]

46 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, it does matter if you don't acknowledge, as you originally didn't, its effect on stock prices.

I didn't deny the effect either. Do you think that QE is the only reason for that effect?

 

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I didn't deny the effect either. Do you think that QE is the only reason for that effect?

Only two things affect stock prices. Forward earnings estimates and the amount of liquidity in the market.

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Disagree. Cherry-picking time windows does not help that much. All these classes have their days of glory but...  

 

"When looking at gold vs. stocks, the yellow metal has moved from $35 an ounce to almost $2,000 in 50 years, providing an average gain of 8.8% a year to long-term investors. In the same timeframe, the S&P 500 gained an average of 7.6%."

https://moneyandmarkets.com/buying-gold-vs-stocks/

 

Most of the rises in the SP and other main indexes have occurred over the last 15 years in a crazy cycle, greatly assisted by loony low interest rates and magic money printing. Now the Fed is trapped and damage will happen whether it raises rates more (stocks) or cut them back, (with returning inflation), or worse. 

 

The chickens are home to roost and the outlook is bad either way.

If you have any gold, keep hold - as my granny used to say.

Bless her.

Who's cherry picking now?  The price of gold went up six-fold in the two years after the artificial fix of $35/oz was lifted.  If you compared the change from 1975, after the price of gold had time to find its market value, to present the S&P 500 comes out ahead on the index alone.  When you factor in the earnings of the stocks the market is even further ahead.

 

"If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1975, you would have about $21,287.89 at the end of 2023, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 21,187.89%, or 11.79% per year."  https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1975

Edited April 14, 2023 by heybruce

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Only two things affect stock prices. Forward earnings estimates and the amount of liquidity in the market.

There's a lot more than that but I wasn't asking you anyway. 

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, heybruce said:

Who's cherry picking now?  The price of gold went up six-fold in the two years after the artificial fix of $35/oz was lifted.  If you compared the change from 1975, after the price of gold had time to find its market value, to present the S&P 500 comes out ahead on the index alone.  When you factor in the earnings of the stocks the market is even further ahead.

 

"If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1975, you would have about $21,287.89 at the end of 2023, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 21,187.89%, or 11.79% per year."  https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1975

Accuse me of cherry-picking then insert your own? You chose to start just before the only two negative years for the gold price in the 1970's!

 

And I wouldn't be so sure about what the return will be by the end of 2023 just yet!

 

My turn next. OK? Let's have a look in 3 years' time.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

I didn't deny the effect either. Do you think that QE is the only reason for that effect?

 

Actually, there's a far more important reason that we both forgot. As the rich get to keep more and more of their income thanks to right wing success in lowering taxes and creating tax dodges, they've accumulated more and more liquidity, while the middle class has less. So you have more money chasing investments. There are only so many productive investments an economy can offer So instead money starts going after assets like stocks. So naturally stock prices tend to rise sharply. The rich got to park their money somewhere.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Actually, there's a far more important reason that we both forgot. As the rich get to keep more and more of their income thanks to right wing success in lowering taxes and creating tax dodges, they've accumulated more and more liquidity, while the middle class has less. So you have more money chasing investments. There are only so many productive investments an economy can offer So instead money starts going after assets like stocks. So naturally stock prices tend to rise sharply. The rich got to park their money somewhere.

Haha - you just can't help yourself from trying that left jab! You should join your local Golden Gloves club - learn a lot there.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

Haha - you just can't help yourself from trying that left jab! You should join your local Golden Gloves club - learn a lot there.

And you can't help coming up with empty jibes that don't address the facts. You've got nothing.

[heybruce]

7 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Accuse me of cherry-picking then insert your own? You chose to start just before the only two negative years for the gold price in the 1970's!

 

And I wouldn't be so sure about what the return will be by the end of 2023 just yet!

 

My turn next. OK? Let's have a look in 3 years' time.

No, let's look back to January 2000, when gold was at at a 20 year low.  Is that favorable enough for you?  It has increased more than four times since then.  However the S&P 500, even though it was at the start of a four year, 40% drop in value, still performs comparably.  https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/2000

 

BTW:  From 1973 to present the S&P 500, if you include dividends, returned 10.38% per year over, well over the 8.8% of gold during your preferred time frame. 

 

For investment of ten years or longer the market usually beats gold by a significant margin.  But if you cherry pick carefully you can find exceptions.

[nauseus]

Just now, heybruce said:

No, let's look back to January 2000, when gold was at at a 20 year low.  Is that favorable enough for you?  It has increased more than four times since then.  However the S&P 500, even though it was at the start of a four year, 40% drop in value, still performs comparably.  https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/2000

 

BTW:  From 1973 to present the S&P 500, if you include dividends, returned 10.38% per year over, well over the 8.8% of gold during your preferred time frame. 

 

For investment of ten years or longer the market usually beats gold by a significant margin.  But if you cherry pick carefully you can find exceptions.

Well make the most of your 10.38% - that's going to be hard to find again for a long time.

[Phoenix Rising]

You have this topic based on an article from Fox "News", and then you have news from the real world:

 

Wholesale inflation posts biggest drop since start of pandemic, PPI shows, as price pressures ease

[placeholder]

56 minutes ago, Phoenix Rising said:

You have this topic based on an article from Fox "News", and then you have news from the real world:

 

Wholesale inflation posts biggest drop since start of pandemic, PPI shows, as price pressures ease

As I pointed out earlier, Stephen Moore is a know liar and genuine incompetent. As the 2008 real estate market was crashing he said everything was fine. Ultimately, he blamed the crash on too much regulation of the banks.

[candide]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

As I pointed out earlier, Stephen Moore is a know liar and genuine incompetent. As the 2008 real estate market was crashing he said everything was fine. Ultimately, he blamed the crash on too much regulation of the banks.

He's got all the required credentials to work for Fox News! ????

[sudsey]

8 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Here's a clue. BUD is doing well.

Losing $5B in market value is doing well?  555

 

Say no more, you have outed yourself.

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, sudsey said:

Losing $5B in market value is doing well?  555

 

Say no more, you have outed yourself.

Up since the covid dip, that's 3 years. I'd like to be in that stock.

[thaibeachlovers]

20 hours ago, Presnock said:

what to do?  IMHO our congress should not allow any illegal immigrant to ever become a US citizen until they are a legal immigrant and the same for all of their family including any birth in the US ( a necessary change tot he law too).  2nd, those that come into the borders and claim asylum should not be allowed to remain free in the US as it takes several years for the courts to even hear their case and from what I have read, by then the US immigration doesn't even really know where any of these folks are.  Our immigration laws are the easiest just about in the "free" world as so many do make it to the US and find greater opportunities than in their own country.  After all, the US is a nation for the most part on immigrants but times have changed somewhat and too many crimes are now involved in getting to the US and then remaining there for innocent and criminals alike.   We need greater efforts to curb drug use and control of immigrants.  my opinion anyway but I am so against the US politicians as it appears to me from what I read daily from around the world politicians of almost all nations are nothing but leeches that are more concerned with being re-elected than they are in solving the problems of their countries.

I have to agree with everything you wrote.

As long as they get to be free and can work in the US more will follow.

[riclag]

First Republic Stock Crashes To All-Time Low As Biden Officials Reportedly Scramble To Save Bank

Another one reeling. 
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/04/25/first-republic-stock-crashes-to-all-time-low-as-biden-officials-reportedly-scramble-to-save-bank/?sh=4bea3c1e30b1

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, riclag said:

First Republic Stock Crashes To All-Time Low As Biden Officials Reportedly Scramble To Save Bank

Another one reeling. 
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/04/25/first-republic-stock-crashes-to-all-time-low-as-biden-officials-reportedly-scramble-to-save-bank/?sh=4bea3c1e30b1

 

It's a pity that there are not enough safeguards imposed to banks to avoid this kind of problems.

Oh, wait!

"In short, the 2018 rollback freed some banks from policies put in place in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 to try to stop these banks and the financial system from crumbling."

 

The facts on Trump’s 2018 loosening of regulations on banks like SVB

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/facts-on-trump-2018-banking-deregulation/index.html

 

Luckily, Biden is pushing to reverse this unfortunate deregulation.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/03/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-urges-regulators-to-reverse-trump-administration-weakening-of-common-sense-safeguards-and-supervision-for-large-regional-banks/

 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by candide

[riclag]

For obvious reasons, it’s impossible to say for sure whether SVB might have been able to survive in an alternate universe without the 2018 rollback. And any bank collapse has numerous complex causes. So experts and advocates are divided on the extent to which the Trump law played a role in SVB’s downfall.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/facts-on-trump-2018-banking-deregulation/index.html

  First Republic Bank financial dilemma is  all during bidens watch not Trumps.

Nice try trying to deflect “all the blame on Trump”.