Aplogies, I can't find a place to post this so if necessary, please move it.

 

Over the last few years there have been quite a few posts on AN/Thai Visa regarding the value of the British Pound against the Thai Baht. Such posts usually occurr following a drop in the value of the pound and always attract attention from so called experts who have invariably claimed that the pound will continue to fall - sometimes to ridiculously low levels.

 

I can't be bothered to search for it but one of those posts happened just a few months ago - again, out came the experts - I seem to remember one saying that the pound would fall to the late 20's against the baht.  These 'experts' write lengthy paragraphs giving their reasoning and trying to look knowledgeable.

 

I on the other hand have always argued with them, not because I claim to have any knowledge of the markets - I don't. I simply argue because there simply hasn't been any logical reason or catastrophic event that would justify their claims.

 

Well experts, where are you now?  Where are those of you that forecast the fall in the pound a couple of months ago would continue - way on down.

 

The pound is now back to where it was and has been for quite some time now - circa 42 baht.

 

21 years ago when I first visited Thailand the pound was at 66 and I've seen it as high as 75.  Events such as Brexit have driven it down over the long term but the value of all other major western currencies has also fallen against the baht.  I'm not an expert as I say but I'd take a guess that its more that the baht has risen than the pound has fallen.

 

I doubt much will happen over the course of the next year but I will make one conditional forecast.......not one with acres of wordiness and justifications just a gut feeling.  Providing the UK gets a hold on inflation, its economy improves and interest rates stabilise or fall - the pound will rise to 43 or 44 by the end of the year/early next year.

 

The pound is not at 30 or 25 as the experts forecast - its back to 42 so what's your 'scientific' excuse for that experts?

 

I'd be really upset if I was employing one of these guys as an analyst or to advise me on investments!!!

https://wise.com/gb/currency-converter/gbp-to-thb-rate?amount=1

 

Help me understand this better, you are upset apparently because a forecast that somebody (unnamed) made (who knows when) didn't come true today, really? And because of this, you think your gut feel is more accurate than any considered analytical view, really?

 

The best I can do for you my friend is to give you an overview assessment of how Baht exchange rates are derived and leave you conclude whatever you want to conclude, which on the basis of what you have written so far, will almost certainly be wrong.

 

 

If 

11 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

21 years ago when I first visited Thailand the pound was at 66 and I've seen it as high as 75.  Events such as Brexit have driven it down over the long term but the value of all other major western currencies has also fallen against the baht. 

 

The expert who claims he doesn't want to be an expert is catastrophically wrong.

37 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

21 years ago when I first visited Thailand the pound was at 66 and I've seen it as high as 75.  Events such as Brexit have driven it down over the long term but the value of all other major western currencies has also fallen against the baht.  I'm not an expert as I say but I'd take a guess that its more that the baht has risen than the pound has fallen.

Don't think it's the pound (or any other western currency).

Think it's the Baht that fell in the late 1990s, and has recovered since then.

Previous to that it was always 35bht to 1gbp.

Looks like some is using Asian News ChatGPT feature 

No thread less than 10000 words!!

Now I've looked at the graph again, if covid hadn't come along in 2020, 35 would have been perfectly reasonable to assume within 5 years, as I recall it did reach 37 ish at one point..

 

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/gbpthb:cur

6 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I think the OP is confusing USD/THB and GBP/THB,

Nope.

news says its never been so good 

 

https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiamh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRlbGVncmFwaC5jby51ay9idXNpbmVzcy8yMDIzLzAzLzMxL2Z0c2UtMTAwLW1hcmtldHMtbGl2ZS1uZXdzLWhvdXNpbmctcHJpY2VzLW5ldC16ZXJvLXZpcmdpbi_SAQA?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen

8 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Don't think it's the pound (or any other western currency).

Think it's the Baht that fell in the late 1990s, and has recovered since then.

Previous to that it was always 35bht to 1gbp.

I hadn't realised that but that makes a lot of sense. 

 

It appears that, once again without any scientific proof ????, that 42 is the new 35.

1 minute ago, KhaoYai said:

I hadn't realised that but that makes a lot of sense. 

 

It appears that, once again without any scientific proof ????, that 42 is the new 35.

I hate to state the obvious but the Asian crash was in the 1990's so yes, the Baht did fall in value from a fixed rate to a floating rate, in 1997 hence the 25 (US) and 35 (GBP). 

 

But what Britman didn't say is that the Pound also has fallen in value against USD since after the second world war, consequently it has been falling against THB as well. To be clear, when I say falling, I refer to long term trend rather than any ups and downs that form part of intraday/week/month trading. Sooo, Pound trending down against USD over the longer term, THB trending up against USD over the longer term and Baht trending up against GBP, over the longer term.

9 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Don't think it's the pound (or any other western currency).

Think it's the Baht that fell in the late 1990s, and has recovered since then.

Previous to that it was always 35bht to 1gbp.

It was 44 baht to the pound when I first came in 1994.

9 minutes ago, proton said:

It was 44 baht to the pound when I first came in 1994.

https://tradingeconomics.com/gbpthb:cur

A number of posts removed.

 

Keep it civil please and NO personal remarks.

Still on the up - 42.25 today.