It’s Not Enough for Ukraine to Win. Russia Has to Lose.

[onthedarkside]

 

A Russia that prevails would be a Russia even further empowered to meddle in Europe and to expand its influence with unlimited violence; a Russia that will have learned that it can commit slaughter and atrocities with impunity; a Russia whose ambitions will grow with success.

 

A Russian victory would, as well, teach the world that the West—including the United States—lacks the resolve, despite its wealth, to follow through on its commitments, offering Beijing an encouraging lesson.

 

Conversely, Russian defeat would put Beijing—already somewhat nervous about its partner’s incompetence and wild statements—on the defensive, consolidate the Western alliance, and help preserve some of the essential norms of decent behavior in those parts of the world most important to us.

 

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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/ukraine-victory-russia-defeat/674112/

 

 

No paywall archive link

[OneMoreFarang]

Yeah, sure, Ukraine should win.

How would such a win look like - realistically?

Please explain.

 

[Tug]

16 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Yeah, sure, Ukraine should win.

How would such a win look like - realistically?

Please explain.

 

With all the Russians out of their country with non aggression guarantees provided by their entry into NATO or something similar turning over of war criminals and massive reparation's  that’s what I would like to see

Edited May 21, 2023 by Tug

[OneMoreFarang]

8 minutes ago, Tug said:

With all the Russians out of their country with non aggression guarantees provided by their entry into NATO or something similar turning over of war criminals and massive reparation's  that’s what I would like to see

Ok, that's what you would like to see.

Do you see even a 1% chance that this will ever happen?

[jollyhangmon]

5 minutes ago, Tug said:

With all the Russians out of their country with non aggression guarantees provided by their entry into NATO or something similar turning over of war criminals and massive reparation's  that’s what I would like to see

 

... plus sending another half mil + of these useless borschties crossing Jordan in the process ...

Yes, makes perfect sense to me,

 

 

[Tug]

10 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Ok, that's what you would like to see.

Do you see even a 1% chance that this will ever happen?

Yes I do I’d give it 75% or better Russia has been humiliated on the battlefield the free world is behind Ukraine Russia is in the wrong this time around the Russian military has been proven to be a paper tiger their weapons are sub par their leadership sucks and I think lots of the Russian guys don’t want to be there so yea I think it’s highly possible I certainly hope so salva Ukraine ???????? 

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

the Russian military has been proven to be a paper tiger their weapons are sub par

Did you forget the little issue that Russia has almost 6000 nuclear weapons?

Have you thought about what the "paper tiger" could do with them?

 

"Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022,^[2] the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world"

Russia and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia

 

 

[Tug]

8 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Did you forget the little issue that Russia has almost 6000 nuclear weapons?

Have you thought about what the "paper tiger" could do with them?

 

"Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022,^[2] the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world"

Russia and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia

 

 

Did you forget how many nukes the rest of the world has?putin hasent,you could also look back not that long ago what appeasing a tyrant cost Europe and the world no sir obviously everyone is deeply concerned appeasing putin isent the answer he needs to be crushed now The irony is last time this happened Russia payed the highest price now they are doing the same thing to another nation 

Edited May 21, 2023 by Tug

[OneMoreFarang]

6 minutes ago, Tug said:

he needs to be crushed now

Yeah, do that and look how Putin will react.

And don't think that the fact that "the west" might retaliate will stop Putin from using nuclear weapons.

 

There is a good reason why most countries and not stupid enough to fight guys with nuclear weapons. NK is a wonderful example. 

 

There is only one way to end this war: People have to talk to each other. And humiliating anybody involved won't help at all. 

 

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Yeah, do that and look how Putin will react.

And don't think that the fact that "the west" might retaliate will stop Putin from using nuclear weapons.

 

There is a good reason why most countries and not stupid enough to fight guys with nuclear weapons. NK is a wonderful example. 

 

There is only one way to end this war: People have to talk to each other. And humiliating anybody involved won't help at all. 

 

Tell that to the Ukrainians who are fighting for their country and will not stop until Russia has lost. That's when the negotiations will happen.

 

Putin's failed attempt at threatening tactical nukes on Ukraine has back fired. He was counting on the west and Ukraine to back down. Ukraine has already got back 50% of the territory Russia took over a year ago.

[OneMoreFarang]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Tell that to the Ukrainians who are fighting for their country and will not stop until Russia has lost. That's when the negotiations will happen.

 

Putin's failed attempt at threatening tactical nukes on Ukraine has back fired. He was counting on the west and Ukraine to back down. Ukraine has already got back 50% of the territory Russia took over a year ago.

Let's imagine Ukraine would get all the territory back. Does that mean they would have won the war?

Does anybody expect that Putin will say: I am sorry, and we will pay for all the damage we have done?

Or does anybody imagine someone will remove Putin and that new somebody will apologize and pay?

Anybody? 

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Let's imagine Ukraine would get all the territory back. Does that mean they would have won the war?

Does anybody expect that Putin will say: I am sorry, and we will pay for all the damage we have done?

Or does anybody imagine someone will remove Putin and that new somebody will apologize and pay?

Anybody? 

One step at a time eh. The Ukrainians are first fighting for their country back and the forced occupation finished. Their millions of displaced to return and those children who were kidnapped returned.

[rabas]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Yeah, sure, Ukraine should win.

How would such a win look like - realistically?

Please explain.

 

When Putin and his cronies hang in Red Square.

 

Don't buy the propaganda that Russians all like him. They don't, especially ones with some education. They know he has ruined the country and prevented it's advancement. Aside from minerals and oil controlled by Putin's cronies, Russians have almost nothing. They also know all Russian buildings have windows.

[rabas]

50 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Did you forget the little issue that Russia has almost 6000 nuclear weapons?

Have you thought about what the "paper tiger" could do with them?

 

"Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022,^[2] the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world"

Russia and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia

• Russia — 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)
• United States — 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)
• France — 290 available
• United Kingdom — 225 available  [ref]

Note: US nukes and delivery systems are more reliable. The MAD policy holds. Putin is highly unlikely to start a global nuclear war. 

 

Interesting fact. Maintaining aging nukes' reliability requires much higher technology than making them. Only the US has such high tech.

[Tug]

14 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Let's imagine Ukraine would get all the territory back. Does that mean they would have won the war?

Does anybody expect that Putin will say: I am sorry, and we will pay for all the damage we have done?

Or does anybody imagine someone will remove Putin and that new somebody will apologize and pay?

Anybody? 

Actually I think the payment part is easy Levi a tax on every drop of oil or gas they sell that goes straight to Ukraine as far as mr Putin is concerned they can handle him in the time honored Russian way out the window or that basement room in the Lubyanka prison or get sporty and poison his underwear who cares 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Tug said:

Actually I think the payment part is easy Levi a tax on every drop of oil or gas they sell that goes straight to Ukraine as far as mr Putin is concerned they can handle him in the time honored Russian way out the window or that basement room in the Lubyanka prison or get sporty and poison his underwear who cares 

It may be easier than that. All the Russian money and assets that has already been frozen by the EU and the West will go a long way.

[Kwasaki]

4 hours ago, onthedarkside said:

Russian defeat

IMHO the only way Russia will be defeated is the end of Putin.

[scorecard]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Yeah, do that and look how Putin will react.

And don't think that the fact that "the west" might retaliate will stop Putin from using nuclear weapons.

 

There is a good reason why most countries and not stupid enough to fight guys with nuclear weapons. NK is a wonderful example. 

 

There is only one way to end this war: People have to talk to each other. And humiliating anybody involved won't help at all. 

 

Agree needs structured discussion but I rather doubt Putin would contribute anything constructive and which would indicate he has lost.

 

Nuclear. Yes frightening, a very difficult factor.  Putin knows 95% of the rest of the world will not accept Putin actually using nukes and he knows there would be very severe punishment of himself and Russia.

 

 

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

• Russia — 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)
• United States — 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)
• France — 290 available
• United Kingdom — 225 available  [ref]

Note: US nukes and delivery systems are more reliable. The MAD policy holds. Putin is highly unlikely to start a global nuclear war. 

 

Interesting fact. Maintaining aging nukes' reliability requires much higher technology than making them. Only the US has such high tech.

So do you want to bet that 100% of Putin's nuclear weapons don't work? 

 

At some moment he might realize that it is the end for him personally. And then he will possibly ask himself why he should go down with a small bang if he can go down in a real big bang.

For that reason alone, it is not a good idea to bring Putin in such a corner. 

[OneMoreFarang]

26 minutes ago, scorecard said:

Agree needs structured discussion but I rather doubt Putin would contribute anything constructive and which would indicate he has lost.

 

Nuclear. Yes frightening, a very difficult factor.  Putin knows 95% of the rest of the world will not accept Putin actually using nukes and he knows there would be very severe punishment of himself and Russia.

What punishment do you have in mind? Dropping one or more western nukes on the people of Russia? That won't happen! 

[scorecard]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

What punishment do you have in mind? Dropping one or more western nukes on the people of Russia? That won't happen! 

 

2 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Let's imagine Ukraine would get all the territory back. Does that mean they would have won the war?

Does anybody expect that Putin will say: I am sorry, and we will pay for all the damage we have done?

Or does anybody imagine someone will remove Putin and that new somebody will apologize and pay?

Anybody? 

All good comments and questions. Seems o me the world will quickly enough impose some punishment on putin.

 

What punishment? I don't know.

 

[Rimmer]

A troll post has been removed

[jvs]

Russia has already lost,maybe not the war(yet) but Putin

really killed the economy.

Over a million able bodied men fled the country,two hundred thousand

died on the battlefield.

Big shortage of labour in russia right now,imported replacement parts

are no longer available or now very expensive.

The russian  people that are saying they are not effected by the sanctions are the poorest people who had nothing anyway.

The rich russians are not happy at all with what is going on.

Very soon a very well prepared Ukrainian army will start to kick the russians back.

So they won Bachmut,for now,at what cost?

Four thousand soldiers pulled from elsewhere,elsewhere better watch out.

Learn from the past people,do not let a bully get away with these things.

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by jvs

[tgw]

4 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Did you forget the little issue that Russia has almost 6000 nuclear weapons?

Have you thought about what the "paper tiger" could do with them?

 

"Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022,^[2] the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world"

Russia and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia

The Ruzzians don't even know what a Ruzzian victory could look like at this point.

With the annexions, they maneuvered themselves into a strategic corner.

 

Ukrainian victory is clearly to push Ruzzians out and join the EU, plus either security guarantee by NATO or full NATO membership.

 

I don't see the Ruzzians using nukes. But if they did and if the West gave in, it would mean they are going to invade the Baltic states next. and then Moldova. Georgia. Poland ... ? Because the West and NATO bow to nuclear boomsing. not. Even the Ruzzians know they can't realistically hope to get away with using nukes.

Edited May 21, 2023 by tgw

[OneMoreFarang]

4 minutes ago, tgw said:

Even the Ruzzians know they can't realistically hope to get away with using nukes.

Who are those "Ruzzians" which you have in mind?

Do you imagine they have a democratic vote if and how they should use nuclear weapons?

Or is it more like Putin says: Let's do it!

And if Putin goes down, will he care if he goes alone or together with Russia or the world? If he is dead, then he is dead. He doesn't have to worry about a nuclear catastrophe anymore. 

[tgw]

9 minutes ago, jvs said:

Russia has already lost,maybe not the war(yet) but Putin

really killed the economy.

Over a million able bodied men fled the country,two hundred thousand

died on the battlefield.

Big shortage of labour in russia right now,imported replacement parts

are no longer available or now very expensive.

yes

 

10 minutes ago, jvs said:

The russian  people that are saying they are not effected by the sanctions are the poorest people who had nothing anyway.

not quite right, internal supply of food, meat, consumer goods, etc. is still good, it's just that TVs and phones now come from China instead.

 

10 minutes ago, jvs said:

Very soon a very well prepared Ukrainian army will start to kick the russians back.

So they won Bachmut,for now,at what cost?

Four thousand soldiers pulled from elsewhere,elsewhere better watch out.

Yes. Personally I think "operation Bakhmut" has been on since November or December.

• Phase one is complete and killed scores of Ruzzians.
• Phase two is underway, which is to attack the flanks and attract lots of Ruzzian reserves there, while cutting off supply routes and destroying infrastructure in Ruzzian's rear using Himars and Starm Shadow / GLSDB.
• Phase three will be a turning movement or a double turning movement depending on opportunity and tactical situation, to cut the Bakhmut area off from supply.
• Phase four will be closing the pocket and suppress Ruzzian troops inside.

Simultaneously with phase three, we will probably see the demolition of Kherch bridge and a Ukrainian combined arms thrust towards Melitopol.

 

What disturbs me is that this is what I, as an armchair general, would expect to happen. So, the Ruzzians will expect this as well. And I hope the Ukrainians have a plan that is ten times better.

 

[tgw]

17 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Who are those "Ruzzians" which you have in mind?

Do you imagine they have a democratic vote if and how they should use nuclear weapons?

Or is it more like Putin says: Let's do it!

And if Putin goes down, will he care if he goes alone or together with Russia or the world? If he is dead, then he is dead. He doesn't have to worry about a nuclear catastrophe anymore. 

Putin has children. 6 AFAIK.

 

Where would he send his bomb to ? on the people he pretended to "liberate" ?

His "best unlimited friendship" allies already told him no.

Using a tactical nuke within Ukraine, well away from NATO borders would be his only (slim) hope to avoid NATO involvement, but realistically he wouldn't.

There is also a good chance the troops themselves would not carry out the order.

 

And that would be the end of Putin.

The same reason he can't go into full mobilization.

It's not just Putin. Putin will die from illness at some point, but after Putin, there will still be Putin's system.
Medvedev and all his cronies are already scared to lose their grip on power today that they take great care to not cause the Russian people to rise up against them.

Edited May 21, 2023 by tgw

[candide]

4 hours ago, rabas said:

• Russia — 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)
• United States — 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)
• France — 290 available
• United Kingdom — 225 available  [ref]

Note: US nukes and delivery systems are more reliable. The MAD policy holds. Putin is highly unlikely to start a global nuclear war. 

 

Interesting fact. Maintaining aging nukes' reliability requires much higher technology than making them. Only the US has such high tech.

I am not sure numbers are so relevant. Even small nuclear countries such as France or UK, have enough missiles to destroy the 50 largest Russian cities.

[onthedarkside]

A couple of nonsense troll posts attributed to the same member have been removed, carry on like that and receive a warning. Replies also removed

[OneMoreFarang]

6 minutes ago, tgw said:

Using a tactical nuke within Ukraine, well away from NATO borders would be his only (slim) hope to avoid NATO involvement, but realistically he wouldn't.

There is also a good chance the troops themselves would not carry out the order.

And are you sure about your prediction and that you understand Putin and the people who follow his orders?

Is it good enough for you that likely he won't do that, or they won't follow orders?