IMF says UK economy to grow this year in big U-turn

[onthedarkside]

 

The IMF on Tuesday delivered a major U-turn on its forecast for the UK economy, saying it expected growth this year, just one month after predicting a contraction.

 

Britain's economy is now predicted to expand by 0.4 percent, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest outlook document which partly cited weaker energy prices.

 

The institution ripped up its previous forecast in April of a 0.3-percent contraction.

 

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/imf-says-uk-economy-grow-101731041.html

 

[SunnyinBangrak]

I wonder how this major U-turn affects the Brexit is a failure narrative? If memory serves wasn't the FTSE one of the world's best performing stock exchanges - outperforming most of the Eurozone exchanges - last year also?

[JonnyF]

Just as many of us predicted. 

 

I still believe the real benefits of Brexit will take between 5-10 years to truly materialize (30 years in the tentacles of the EU takes a while to unwrap), but it's good to see the UK economy predicted to grow as soon as 3 years on from leaving, especially when we consider the underlying, depressing global economic outlook following Covid and the War in Ukraine. 

 

Well done to those brave enough to Vote to leave the failing, corrupt, federalist project that is the EU.

[stevenl]

I hp[e for the sake of the UK this news is correct. Still not good, far from it, but better than the earlier indicated decline.

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

I wonder how this major U-turn affects the Brexit is a failure narrative? If memory serves wasn't the FTSE one of the world's best performing stock exchanges - outperforming most of the Eurozone exchanges - last year also?

Well the FTSE 100 was up because it's internationally focused. But the FTSE 250 is more closely tied to the UK economy and it was down in 2022. But however well or poorly a stock exchange performs is only loosely tied to how the economy is doing.

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

I hp[e for the sake of the UK this news is correct. Still not good, far from it, but better than the earlier indicated decline.

Don't worry about the UK. Project Fear is being exposed for exactly what it was. Nonsense.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1773415/imf-uk-economy-report-germany

 

[Seppius]

Germany enters recession following economic 'collapse' - and experts predict the situation is only going to get WORSE for Europe's largest economy... as IMF sharply upgrades UK growth forecast

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12123311/Germany-enters-recession-following-economic-collapse-IMF-sharply-upgrades-UK-growth-forecast.html

 

What's bad for Germany is not good for the rest of the EU

[candide]

On 5/24/2023 at 12:47 AM, SunnyinBangrak said:

I wonder how this major U-turn affects the Brexit is a failure narrative? If memory serves wasn't the FTSE one of the world's best performing stock exchanges - outperforming most of the Eurozone exchanges - last year also?

Not much according to the latest figures from the ONS (12 May)

Quote:

"The first quarterly estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) shows that the economy increased by 0.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 (Figure 1). This follows growth of 0.1% in the previous quarter. The level of quarterly GDP in Quarter 1 2023 is now 0.5% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level (Quarter 4 2019).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/januarytomarch2023

[candide]

1 hour ago, Seppius said:

Germany enters recession following economic 'collapse' - and experts predict the situation is only going to get WORSE for Europe's largest economy... as IMF sharply upgrades UK growth forecast

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12123311/Germany-enters-recession-following-economic-collapse-IMF-sharply-upgrades-UK-growth-forecast.html

 

What's bad for Germany is not good for the rest of the EU

It's not good for any country with a significant trade with Germany, including UK. Germany is UK's second trade partner (measured by country). And if it affects the whole EU as you seem to rejoice about, it will also affect UK (EU=42% of UK exports).

[JayClay]

It's hardly a massive U-turn. From narrowly entering recession at growth of -0.2 (or whatever it was) to narrowly avoiding it with growth of 0.4.

 

Obviously it's better to be growing than retracting, but there's still a long way to go before it can be considered significant.