Baht volatility looms amid political risk and new government formation

[snoop1130]

 

Kasikornbank (KBank) has warned investors that the formation of a new government and political risk may result in increased baht volatility over the next month. The bank forecasts that the baht will fluctuate between 33.80-35.40 per US dollar during this period due to various internal and external factors. The primary determinant is the direction of the US Federal Reserve’s policy rate.

 

KBank believes that domestic politics will influence baht volatility after the next four weeks. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point twice more this year, beginning in September and continuing in December.

 

“Domestic politics is a risk factor that could trigger baht fluctuation against the dollar,” said Kobsit Silpachai, head of KBank’s capital market research department. “Investors are concerned about the formation of the new coalition government amid uncertainty following the general election.”

 

Although the baht may be volatile against the dollar in the short term, it is predicted to appreciate to 33.8 by the end of this year. The anticipated tourism-driven economic recovery is expected to support baht appreciation in the second half of the year.

 

By Alex Morgan

Caption: Image via Getty Images

 

Full Story: https://thethaiger.com/news/business/baht-volatility-looms-amid-political-risk-and-new-government-formation

 

-- © Copyright Thaiger 2023-05-25

 

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[dinsdale]

I bet it does and this would be down to 250 planted vanguards of the three pillars, planted in the senate by a miltary coup leader who stayed in power by said vanguards and a corrupted electoral system. I will keep saying this. Thailand is on the brink. Progress is coming or a coup is coming. I cannot see any other alternatives.

[BenStark]

19 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Progress is coming or a coup is coming.

Progress is coming or civil unrest is coming, after which a coup will come

[whereyougo]

Good news baht goes up.

Bad news baht goes up even more.

Edited May 25, 2023 by whereyougo

[sammieuk1]

"Volatility" has been measured in tenths of satang's against the pound for the last 7 years ????

[dinsdale]

Just now, BenStark said:

Progress is coming or civil unrest is coming, after which a coup will come

Agree, but pretty much what I was saying and have been for quite some time. A coup will not come without civil unrest. Civil unrest must be manufactured. Will it go this way? Will the planted bastions of the three pillars vote against the progression of Thailand into the 21st Century which will lead to said civil unrest? I think civil unrest is not the right term. I think it will be much, much more. I have been talking to Thais about this and this country will explode. The people have had enough. They voted for 'it's time to move forward' and this is what they want. I fear that the streets of BKK will be running in blood.

[hotchilli]

10 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Progress is coming or a coup is coming. I cannot see any other alternatives.

Hopefully not the latter, that really would sink Thailand.

[RichardColeman]

It appears coups work but democracy does not in forming a government here

[mikebell]

11 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

"Volatility" has been measured in tenths of satang's against the pound for the last 7 years ????

And with all the unrest in UK the appreciating baht will continue to shrink my UK pension even more than the British Government have done in the last 18 years.

[sammieuk1]

14 minutes ago, mikebell said:

And with all the unrest in UK the appreciating baht will continue to shrink my UK pension even more than the British Government have done in the last 18 years.

Chin up its an early pay day today or poultry day as I now call it ????

[soalbundy]

13 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Agree, but pretty much what I was saying and have been for quite some time. A coup will not come without civil unrest. Civil unrest must be manufactured. Will it go this way? Will the planted bastions of the three pillars vote against the progression of Thailand into the 21st Century which will lead to said civil unrest? I think civil unrest is not the right term. I think it will be much, much more. I have been talking to Thais about this and this country will explode. The people have had enough. They voted for 'it's time to move forward' and this is what they want. I fear that the streets of BKK will be running in blood.

I think you are exaggerating, MFP has done the inevitable by realigning its manifesto to conform to the establishments wishes, eg. removing its opposition to lese majesty laws, undoubtedly more will follow. Noble aspirations meet the brick wall of reality and as a result very little will change, 90% of the status quo will remain. The establishment can't be beaten down with a club; it has to be gently sandpapered away and that takes time and patience, lots of it. The social ills in Europe took 200 years of sandpapering and there is still a block left over. People don't want blood on the streets, they want stability and the majority (assumption) want it above all else, let the toddler walk before it runs.

[anchadian]

This is something we already know.

[Bangkok Barry]

14 hours ago, dinsdale said:

The people have had enough. They voted for 'it's time to move forward' and this is what they want. I fear that the streets of BKK will be running in blood.

And even then the baht will continue as if nothing is happening, as it always has done when there have been street riots and coups. The country is such a miniscule player on the world stage that outside of its borders no-one actually gives a rat's fart about what happens in Thailand.