Saying the quiet part out loud -- would success of the Move Forward Party agenda spell the end of the Golden Age for expats in Thailand?

[Jingthing]

This isn't about whether the Move Forward Party agenda is good for Thailand or Thai people. Debate that elsewhere.

 

The topic here poses the question that assuming success of the Move Forward Party to propel Thailand into a "higher level" nation (and that is of course a core part of their goals) would that result in a much harder time for at least some categories of expats?

 

Looking at history and trends in a global perspective, I think the answer is an obvious YES.

 

"Higher level" countries don't rely on tourism as much, don't have scads of flexible visa options, including Buy a Visa plans such as the Elite Card, and indeed most countries don't even have ANY retirement visa program. Of course a "higher level" country will generally have higher costs and a stronger currency, pricing out many even if they can qualify for whatever visa options are left.

 

I'm not sure how long it would take assuming this social and economic great leap forward does happen, but it seems to me the writing is on the wall if it does.

 

The days (more like years) of our "usefulness" to the Thai economy may be numbered.

 

What do you think? Am I way off base or do you agree?

 

[Pouatchee]

10 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

The topic here poses the question that assuming success of the Move Forward Party propels Thailand into a "higher level" nation

bigger fish to fry. first thing he needs to do is address the education problem. a multi-cultural environment benefits thailand. if he wishes to send his culture to the golden age of the mid 1930's then he will get rid of us. we will soon see his true colors

[Jingthing]

Just now, Pouatchee said:

bigger fish to fry. first thing he needs to do is address the education problem. a multi-cultural environment benefits thailand. if he wishes to send his culture to the wat of the mid 1930's then he will get rid of us. we will soon see his true colors

I'm not suggesting a total purge, but I am suggesting a significant weeding out. We're not allowed to live here because of our pleasant smell. Obviously high value / special skills foreigners will alway be welcome. 

[Caldera]

I think the new government's actual impact on the economy will be quite limited, because there are important long-term factors at play: demographics (an aging population), education (needs a complete overhaul), infrastructure (needs a complete overhaul as well) and household debt.

 

What their attitude and policies towards expats will be remains to be seen. If they're serious about anti-corruption, the retirement visa agent racket would be a likely target.

[stoner]

14 minutes ago, Caldera said:

I think the new government's actual impact on the economy will be quite limited, because there are important long-term factors at play: demographics (an aging population), education (needs a complete overhaul), infrastructure (needs a complete overhaul as well) and household debt.

 

What their attitude and policies towards expats will be remains to be seen. If they're serious about anti-corruption, the retirement visa agent racket would be a likely target.

how long does an entire cultural change take ? generations. 

 

education alone is a monumental task. one single gov't will barely make a dent in what is truly needed. 

 

police.. military.. save face.. entitlement.. etc.

 

good luck. i do have faith in the younger ones but most my generation or older are hopeless. i first came here 20 years ago. for 1 example. the driving habits are almost identical now vs back then. 

 

 

[bignok]

Malaysia and Cambodia have better visas than Thailand. Malaysia also gives 90 day visa exemption vs 30 days. Cambodia is us$300 a year no hassle for over 55yos last time I looked.

 

Elite visa is good but expensive. Other ones a hassle. If anything a forward thinking party should make it better.

 

I'm finding Thailand a bit more boring these days. Or maybe I've changed.

[mania]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

The topic here poses the question that assuming success of the Move Forward Party to propel Thailand into a "higher level" nation (and that is of course a core part of their goals) would that result in a much harder time for at least some categories of expats?

For sure

I mean generally expats that can afford better do not retire to Thailand

(of course there are exceptions with family etc)

 

But "generally" the expat population is made up of folks with thin pensions that go much farther in Thailand. So Thailand has been a wonderful choice as you can live a better life for less.

 

But..When all the higher levels come so do the costs of living. When the minimum wages start really climbing the owners/producers etc are not going to just pay them. They will raise the prices of all things to offset expenses

 

That dog chasing its tail scenario brought on by labor unions in the west decades ago has shown most what comes next.

Sadly at the end of day the cost of living rises & the min wage workers never do catch up no matter the new minimum.

[soi3eddie]

1 hour ago, Caldera said:

the retirement visa agent racket would be a likely target.

In Pattaya/Jomtien it is already shut down. Anyone who got one in last 6 weeks please prove me wrong.

 

[Scott]

Inflammatory post reported and removed.

 

[chalawaan]

There's always marriage.

 

And if the new government were going to become anything like advanced economies in terms of expat visas, the humanity of those marriage visas would evolve, and the annual immigration harassment, (let's call it what it is) would have to end. 

Currently, if your wife dies, and you can't afford the million baht just to park and season B800,000 of that sum, whilst using the remainder to keep yourself afloat (rinse repeat until death or worse) then it's byebye, Khun Widower, the day the annual marriage extension of stay ends.

And by advanced nation standards, that's seen as so very wrong, that there are specific laws to protect spouses set adrift by various twists of fate, such as spousal death, abuse, etc. 

 

To get back on point, if the cost of visas go up the humanitarian considerations would have to advance to reflect a vastly modernised economic and social services model for ALL who live here. 

[chalawaan]

1 hour ago, bignok said:

Malaysia and Cambodia have better visas than Thailand. Malaysia also gives 90 day visa exemption vs 30 days. Cambodia is us$300 a year no hassle for over 55yos last time I looked.

 

Elite visa is good but expensive. Other ones a hassle. If anything a forward thinking party should make it better.

 

I'm finding Thailand a bit more boring these days. Or maybe I've changed.

Malaysian "MM2H" retirement visa was always very pricey by comparison, and was recently massively increased, it's upper middle class territory (surgeons, judges, etc) 

Cambodia is very unappealing from what I experienced over two visits. 

Hun Sen and his merry men are basically veteran Khmer Rouge, and make my skin crawl. 

How does mature health, geriatric, and hospice care plan out in Phnom Penh is another concern. 

Anyone retired there based on the cheap beer and bargirls is a mental midget. 

The same applies to the Phillipines, fun fact, they are so narco-paranoid there, that there are a total of five(!) chronic pain specialists, in the whole 7000+ islands!

And their access to serious opioids is close to zero. Duterte himself got his Fentanyl pain management in Singapore. 

 

In short, if you're cash strapped and elderly here and they boot you, it's going to be bleak indeed!

[kinyara]

I'd wait and see who actually manages to form the next government first, it's early days as far as I'm concerned and I'm not even cautiously optimistic yet.

 

I seem to remember a figure of 60,000 resident retirees being mentioned by the head honcho of immigration in an interview he gave to a news outlet in the recent past, if anyone can definitively confirm that ball park it would be useful. At that level while you may think we are important to Thailand, the reality is we are insignificant in number and economic contribution in a country of circa 72 million.

 

I expect any government here to prioritse their efforts towards ensuring a successful tourism policy given it is far more important economically than making any sweeping changes to a well established retirement visa policy. Bigger fish to fry on many fronts.

 

[it is what it is]

 

bigger fish to fry for sure, but tightened, enforced rules for expats would get my vote, too many expats flout rules to be here and this reflects badly on the rest of us.

[Chicksaw]

Why would the new government or any government for that matter care about a cohort of wrinkly pensioners riding bar stools to meet the Lord?

 

I am not kidding. For the elite Thais who run this place, including Pita et al, we don't exist because they never see us. Their only encounter with farangs are those like them that work out of the C-suite.

 

We just aren't important by any measure, numerically, economically or politically. So as long as we don't rock the boat by doing something stupid there's no reason for the status quo to be touched.

[Jingthing]

30 minutes ago, Chicksaw said:

Why would the new government or any government for that matter care about a cohort of wrinkly pensioners riding bar stools to meet the Lord?

 

I am not kidding. For the elite Thais who run this place, including Pita et al, we don't exist because they never see us. Their only encounter with farangs are those like them that work out of the C-suite.

 

We just aren't important by any measure, numerically, economically or politically. So as long as we don't rock the boat by doing something stupid there's no reason for the status quo to be touched.

Again look at this from an International perspective.

As a generality when countries get more successful they tend to raise the bar for retired expats if they have such programs at all.

Try retiring in Singapore.

As mentioned the requirements for Malaysia were massively increased resulting in a huge exodus and almost no new applications.

Malaysia does have a budget loophole in Sarawak.

News is the Philippines will soon kill their famous three years before a visa run scheme and change to 90 days. That will cause a mass exodus. There are examples like this globally.

[Enoon]

4 hours ago, Pouatchee said:

bigger fish to fry. first thing he needs to do is address the education problem. a multi-cultural environment benefits thailand. if he wishes to send his culture to the golden age of the mid 1930's then he will get rid of us. we will soon see his true colors

It would be a question of costs rather than principle.

 

It will require no xenophobic effort on the governments part.

 

Developed society/economy = "developed" costs.

 

How many expats will be able to afford it?

 

 

[Chicksaw]

I see where you are coming from. But I don't see the question of raising the bar arising here. Yet. How many items do we read in the news along the lines, "destitute expat seen begging", "destitute expat in hospital asks help", "gang of expat drug dealers caught", and the like? Very few. There're no red flags for authorities to glare at us.

 

Which is what I mean by not rocking the boat. E.g., if increasing numbers of expats began to default on their hospital bills then that would draw scrutiny and lead possibly to tightening of regs. Exactly as they are mulling what to do with tourist health insurance given the number of tourists banging themselves up here.

 

Of course, they want multimillionaires to move here and are making up new visa categories to lure them. But I don't see they have need to come after the rest of us.

[Enoon]

25 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Again look at this from an International perspective.

As a generality when countries get more successful they tend to raise the bar for retired expats if they have such programs at all.

Try retiring in Singapore.

As mentioned the requirements for Malaysia were massively increased resulting in a huge exodus and almost no new applications.

Malaysia does have a budget loophole in Sarawak.

News is the Philippines will soon kill their famous three years before a visa run scheme and change to 90 days. That will cause a mass exodus. There are examples like this globally.

Yes, it will become difficult for some to continue to live, or choose to live, in Thailand.

 

See post immediately after your last post

 

 

[Airalee]

What does Thailand offer that will “propel it into a higher level nation”…and what does that even mean?  Will Thailand become a technological tour de force?  What are we up to now?  Thailand 5.0?Will they conjure up an aerospace industry?  Is Thairung the next big thing in autos?

 

Whatever the plans….how will it be paid for?  More debt?

 

Will things get more expensive here in the long run?  Possibly.  How much and how fast?  Who knows? Maybe we will see deflation as the credit bubble unwinds.   Don’t know….but if either situation happened too fast,  Thailand will have much bigger issues to deal with than a few expats who are renting a handful of the gazillion of empty condos.

 

Perhaps they’ll increase the 800k requirement to 1.2 million and potentially grandfather the old timers in….or not.

 

Que sera sera 

 

[bignok]

4 hours ago, chalawaan said:

Malaysian "MM2H" retirement visa was always very pricey by comparison, and was recently massively increased, it's upper middle class territory (surgeons, judges, etc) 

Cambodia is very unappealing from what I experienced over two visits. 

Hun Sen and his merry men are basically veteran Khmer Rouge, and make my skin crawl. 

How does mature health, geriatric, and hospice care plan out in Phnom Penh is another concern. 

Anyone retired there based on the cheap beer and bargirls is a mental midget. 

The same applies to the Phillipines, fun fact, they are so narco-paranoid there, that there are a total of five(!) chronic pain specialists, in the whole 7000+ islands!

And their access to serious opioids is close to zero. Duterte himself got his Fentanyl pain management in Singapore. 

 

In short, if you're cash strapped and elderly here and they boot you, it's going to be bleak indeed!

Think outside the box. Malay 90 days no visa. Cambodia $300 a year. Thailand 30 days no visa.

 

There is no reason why you have to live in 1 city or one country.

 

 

 

 

[bignok]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Again look at this from an International perspective.

As a generality when countries get more successful they tend to raise the bar for retired expats if they have such programs at all.

Try retiring in Singapore.

As mentioned the requirements for Malaysia were massively increased resulting in a huge exodus and almost no new applications.

Malaysia does have a budget loophole in Sarawak.

News is the Philippines will soon kill their famous three years before a visa run scheme and change to 90 days. That will cause a mass exodus. There are examples like this globally.

Hmm why would Thailand change overnight. Parties barely last 3 years.

[bignok]

3 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Again look at this from an International perspective.

As a generality when countries get more successful they tend to raise the bar for retired expats if they have such programs at all.

Try retiring in Singapore.

As mentioned the requirements for Malaysia were massively increased resulting in a huge exodus and almost no new applications.

Malaysia does have a budget loophole in Sarawak.

News is the Philippines will soon kill their famous three years before a visa run scheme and change to 90 days. That will cause a mass exodus. There are examples like this globally.

You are talking about cost of living. So unless cost of living changes a lot no real change. Outside Bangkok most Thais are poor.

[WilliamSmits]

Stricter rules will make no change unless corruption is addressed. I hope that there will be less talk and a bit more action on that side

[KhunLA]

8 hours ago, Caldera said:

What their attitude and policies towards expats will be remains to be seen. If they're serious about anti-corruption, the retirement visa agent racket would be a likely target.

One can only hope, but doubtful, as corruption is simple too ingrained.  As stated, bigger fish to fry and a few expats (relative) skirting the law is a low priority.

[StayinThailand2much]

I'm more worried about the numbskulls from Pheu Thai...

 

Apart from this, higher living costs, etc., I am not worried for the next ten years. Also, there are alternatives. I'm not 'married' to Thailand, after all, and (location) change is good.

[Lacessit]

I doubt a new government would be going after retirees directly, we are popular with Thai women for a reason.

OTOH, if the new government manages to increase the minimum wage and age pensions, that would indirectly affect retirees via the cost of living.

We will just have to wait and see, not that it particularly concerns me. If my money runs out at age 99 instead of age 105, I doubt I'll still be here anyway.

In Australia, people are having to make the choice between paying their rent, or buying food. Even forgoing female hygiene products. Thailand is a long way off from that.

[mfd101]

There'll be the quick'neasy fixes, largely symbolic (cancel submarine, 10% rise in minimum wage, gay marriage, fiddle with the constitution, law enforcement including on the roads ... ) and then there's the real social & cultural change stuff that will take decades (corruption, police, military, education ...).

 

As for this 'gay' (actually rather serious & sober) pensioner, the moment the gay marriage bit comes thru we'll do the deed to strengthen my position here in the event that my b/f (40 years younger than me) dies before me (which, given his driving skills, is not entirely impossible (sigh)).

[mania]

4 hours ago, Chicksaw said:

There're no red flags for authorities to glare at us.,,,,,,,,

 

Which is what I mean by not rocking the boat. E.g., if increasing numbers of expats began to default on their hospital bills then that would draw scrutiny and lead possibly to tightening of regs

Actually every Go Fund Me page is another red flag

 

If anything I think any government in Thailand's near future will insist on a expat visa extension having a health insurance policy or X-Million Baht in a separate account (not your visa account) that is accessible by hospitals should you be admitted unconscious

 

Basically as you said but sooner than later me thinks ????

[1FinickyOne]

2 hours ago, bignok said:

There is no reason why you have to live in 1 city or one country.

Some of us have families here... 

[Lacessit]

9 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

There'll be the quick'neasy fixes, largely symbolic (cancel submarine, 10% rise in minimum wage, gay marriage, fiddle with the constitution, law enforcement including on the roads ... ) and then there's the real social & cultural change stuff that will take decades (corruption, police, military, education ...).

 

As for this 'gay' (actually rather serious & sober) pensioner, the moment the gay marriage bit comes thru we'll do the deed to strengthen my position here in the event that my b/f (40 years younger than me) dies before me (which, given his driving skills, is not entirely impossible (sigh)).

Thailand is actually highly conservative, although tolerant. Getting gay marriage legally recognized is on a par with legalizing prostitution, no offense meant by the comparison.

My GF is quite a safe driver, only because I have superimposed my own defensive driving training on the pitiful standard of Thai instruction. Perhaps you might consider doing the same with your BF.