Researchers sound alarm over "unprecedented ice-free" threat to Arctic

[onthedarkside]

 

 

It's too late to stop summer Arctic sea ice melting — even in a low-emissions scenario that caps global warming at a 1.5°C target in line with the Paris Agreement, according to a new study.

 

Why it matters: The peer-reviewed findings on the effects of human-caused climate change in the region, published in Nature Communications, suggest the first ice-free summer could be in the 2030s. That's a decade sooner than previously projected.

 

Thought bubble: Many studies have projected when the Arctic sea ice would be seasonally ice-free, and all could be proven wrong given the nonlinearities and variability inherent in the Arctic climate system.

 

READ MORE

https://www.axios.com/2023/06/07/arctic-sea-ice-free-climate-change

 

[Zapitapi]

puh.. another projection.. ice free was projected many times since the 70"s..never happend.. but NOW..now its true:)

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, Zapitapi said:

puh.. another projection.. ice free was projected many times since the 70"s..never happend.. but NOW..now its true:)

When was it projected to occur by in the 70's? 1971? 2?

[Zapitapi]

9 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

When was it projected to occur by in the 70's? 1971? 2?

maybe not clear in my writing but the point is that it was "projected" in the 70"s..not occur in the 70"s

[ozimoron]

Just now, Zapitapi said:

maybe not clear in my writing but the point is that it was "projected" in the 70"s..not occur in the 70"s

And the projection looks like it was correct. The prediction is coming to pass.

[Zapitapi]

7 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

And the projection looks like it was correct. The prediction is coming to pass.

we will see.. i personally dont think so..my point is that these scenarios where multiple times predicted over the last 5 decades.. it wasnt always 2030 but many dates in between and the dates came and nothing happened..remember when it was called global warming? then no warming occurred and then its climate crisis.. also by the year 2020 or so we where supposed to have 200.000.000 climate refugees..we have none ..maledives gone by the year 2005 or so.. but a 30 year study by the french and american gov shows net 15% island growth buy 2022.. and the list goes on and on..so yes i am sceptical

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Zapitapi said:

we will see.. i personally dont think so..my point is that these scenarios where multiple times predicted over the last 5 decades.. it wasnt always 2030 but many dates in between and the dates came and nothing happened..remember when it was called global warming? then no warming occurred and then its climate crisis.. also by the year 2020 or so we where supposed to have 200.000.000 climate refugees..we have none ..maledives gone by the year 2005 or so.. but a 30 year study by the french and american gov shows net 15% island growth buy 2022.. and the list goes on and on..so yes i am sceptical

"Over the last 40 years, annual Arctic sea ice measurements show ice shrinking by 12.6 percent each decade, a pace of decline that's unmatched by any point in at least the last 1,500 years. Scientists measure Arctic sea ice every year in September, when satellite imaging shows ice coverage at its lowest."

https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-much-has-arctic-ice-declined-and-how-does-compare-past-periods-earths-history#:~:text=Over the last 40 years,least the last 1%2C500 years.&text=Scientists measure Arctic sea ice,ice coverage at its lowest.

[onthedarkside]

Unattributed copy and paste text removed.

 

27. You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Only post a link, the headline and three sentences from the article. Content in the public domain is limited to the same restrictions.

 

World News: Any alleged factual claims must be supported by a valid link to an approved credible source.

[Zapitapi]

ok lunch time now.. all i have to say is that 2030 will come and climate wont be our problem..guess we are of different opinions and without face to face discourse there is no point in going on..enjoy ur day all.. steak time

[placeholder]

23 minutes ago, Zapitapi said:

.remember when it was called global warming? then no warming occurred and then its climate crisis.. also by the year 2020 or so we where supposed to have 200.000.000 climate refugees..we have none ..maledives gone by the year 2005 or so.. but a 30 year study by the french and american gov shows net 15% island growth buy 2022.. and the list goes on and on..so yes i am sceptical

You have an interesting and creative memory. Let's start out with your falsehood that no warming has occurred.

Copernicus: Globally, the seven hottest years on record were the last seven; carbon dioxide and methane concentrations continue to rise

https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-globally-seven-hottest-years-record-were-last-seven

 

It's 2 years on now from that and it now the last 9 years have been the hottest on record.

"The past nine years have been the warmest years since modern recordkeeping began in 1880. This means Earth in 2022 was about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (or about 1.11 degrees Celsius) warmer than the late 19th century

average."

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-says-2022-fifth-warmest-year-on-record-warming-trend-continues

 

As for your assertion about the Maldives growing, I have found no evidence to support your claims. But there is plenty of evidence to the contrary. 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148158/preparing-for-rising-seas-in-the-maldives

It's true that some atolls are rising thanks to the growth of coral reefs enough to compensate for rising seas. But not the Maldives. And that fact that some atolls reefs are currently keeping pace with sea level rise thanks to coral reef production has no bearing on the fact of sea level rise.

 

As for your claim that "by the year 2020 or so we where supposed to have 200.000.000 climate refugees", actually the year projected was 2050,

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02112021/climate-refugees-international-law-cop26/

 

As for your claim that there are no climate refugees, you sure about that?

Climate change is already fueling global migration. The world isn’t ready to meet people’s changing needs, experts say

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/climate-change-is-already-fueling-global-migration-the-world-isnt-ready-to-meet-peoples-needs-experts-say

Dhaka: the city where climate refugees are already a reality

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/dec/01/dhaka-city-climate-refugees-reality

 

Anyway, apart from these few quibbles, thanks for the great post.

[ozimoron]

36 minutes ago, Zapitapi said:

ok lunch time now.. all i have to say is that 2030 will come and climate wont be our problem..guess we are of different opinions and without face to face discourse there is no point in going on..enjoy ur day all.. steak time

Why is 2030 not still a problem? Are you planning to shuffle off your mortal coil in 2030 and don't have any kids?

[quake]

One more,  the world is going to end thread. 

Wonder how many more people will be looking for government funding to do more research. it's a growing industry now days. 

Roll up, Roll up, get you millions, in funding before the next doomsday prophecy comes in to vogue.

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, quake said:

One more,  the world is going to end thread. 

Wonder how many more people will be looking for government funding to do more research. it's a growing industry now days. 

Roll up, Roll up, get you millions, in funding before the next doomsday prophecy comes in to vogue.

Since the facts are against you, I guess that leaves you no choice to allege motives instead.

You've got nothing,

Edited June 8, 2023 by placeholder

[quake]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Since the facts are against you, I guess that leaves you no choice to allege motives instead.

You've got nothing,

Are we not in a cool period of the earth history.

 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, quake said:

Are we not in a cool period of the earth history.

 

We are in an interglacial period. About 8000 years ago the earth started to warm. It pretty much stopped, or at least slowed dramatically, about 2000 years ago.  The earth is now warmer than it's been in the last 125,000 years. What's even more significant is this:

 

Earth Hasn’t Warmed This Fast in Tens of Millions of Years
Chemical analyses of ancient sediments allowed scientists to put together one of the most comprehensive climate histories of the planet

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-hasnt-warmed-this-fast-in-tens-of-millions-of-years/

[quake]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

We are in an interglacial period. About 8000 years ago the earth started to warm. It pretty much stopped, or at least slowed dramatically, about 2000 years ago.  The earth is now warmer than it's been in the last 125,000 years. What's even more significant is this:

 

Earth Hasn’t Warmed This Fast in Tens of Millions of Years
Chemical analyses of ancient sediments allowed scientists to put together one of the most comprehensive climate histories of the planet

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-hasnt-warmed-this-fast-in-tens-of-millions-of-years/

Ice cores say we are in a cool period of the earths history.

and what we see now, is a slight fluctuation in that cool period.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, quake said:

Ice cores say we are in a cool period of the earths history.

and what we see now, is a slight fluctuation in that cool period.

Really? 

From the landing page of the World News Forum:

"Any alleged factual claims must be supported by a valid link to an approved credible source."

You've got nothing.

[Purdey]

6 hours ago, placeholder said:

Anyway, apart from these few quibbles, thanks for the great post.

Yes, kick 'em while they're down. Great post. 

[Dickie Dee]

11 hours ago, ozimoron said:

When was it projected to occur by in the 70's? 1971? 2?

It’s too late to save humanity. But keep supporting corporate greed. The few will need an outpost of Eden free of gravity to carry on to a new life of exploitation elsewhere. Poor slaves are almost no longer required. 

[JustAnotherHun]

Oh, again?

Al Gore - remember Al Gore:

“Some of the models suggest to Dr Maslowski that there is a 75% chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years.”

(Dec 14/2009)

 

Btw:

“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

(Dr. Maslowski, Dec 15/2009)

 

The climate sect seems to act like Jehovah's Witnesses, who repeatedly predicted the doomsday date.

 

So, while there'll be no more ice left in Arctica, the ice shelf in Antarctica is growing - according to a study of EGU from May 16 /2023. According to J. Andreasen, between 2009 and 2019 the shelf grew by 5305 km2 or 661 giga tons,

 

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/2059/2023/

 

Some more doomsday predictions?

 

In 1989 a UN official declared we only have a 10-year window before rising sea levels “wipe entire nations off the face of the earth.”

 

2000: within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event". "Children just aren't going to know what snow is,"

( Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia)

 

More hysterical doomsday tales? Buy and read Global 2000. 

Edited June 8, 2023 by JustAnotherHun

[candide]

24 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Oh, again?

Al Gore - remember Al Gore:

“Some of the models suggest to Dr Maslowski that there is a 75% chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years.”

(Dec 14/2009)

 

Btw:

“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

(Dr. Maslowski, Dec 15/2009)

 

The climate sect seems to act like Jehovah's Witnesses, who repeatedly predicted the doomsday date.

 

So, while there'll be no more ice left in Arctica, the ice shelf in Antarctica is growing - according to a study of EGU from May 16 /2023. According to J. Andreasen, between 2009 and 2019 the shelf grew by 5305 km2 or 661 giga tons,

 

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/2059/2023/

 

Some more doomsday predictions?

 

In 1989 a UN official declared we only have a 10-year window before rising sea levels “wipe entire nations off the face of the earth.”

 

2000: within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event". "Children just aren't going to know what snow is,"

( Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia)

 

More hysterical doomsday tales? Buy and read Global 2000. 

Well, if you are only looking for studies or statemengs which have been proven wrong, and ignore studies which have been proven roght, you can certainly find some.

 

However, it has been shown that most past predictions have been rather accurate as concerns global warming. (I mean scientific prediction,  not someone making a statement).

 

Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections

"Model simulations published between 1970 and 2007 were skillful in projecting future global mean surface warming"

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085378

 

Not to mention the fact that these models have been improved over time.

[placeholder]

8 hours ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Oh, again?

Al Gore - remember Al Gore:

“Some of the models suggest to Dr Maslowski that there is a 75% chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years.”

(Dec 14/2009)

 

Btw:

“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

(Dr. Maslowski, Dec 15/2009)

 

The climate sect seems to act like Jehovah's Witnesses, who repeatedly predicted the doomsday date.

 

So, while there'll be no more ice left in Arctica, the ice shelf in Antarctica is growing - according to a study of EGU from May 16 /2023. According to J. Andreasen, between 2009 and 2019 the shelf grew by 5305 km2 or 661 giga tons,

 

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/2059/2023/

 

Some more doomsday predictions?

 

In 1989 a UN official declared we only have a 10-year window before rising sea levels “wipe entire nations off the face of the earth.”

 

2000: within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event". "Children just aren't going to know what snow is,"

( Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia)

 

More hysterical doomsday tales? Buy and read Global 2000. 

Typical nitpickinbg stuff culled from denialist websites.

Who cares about what Al Gore claims? Is he a scientist or an authorized spokesperson for the climatological community?

As for that statement from a U.N. official I haven't been able to find much about it. Apparently, what was claimed is that if something wasn't done to reverse to reduce emissions in a 10 year level, eventually rising seas would overwhelm certain nations.

 

As for the snowfall comment, here's a fact:

 Met Office data shows that, since 1979, the number of snow-lying days has generally decreased by up to five days per decade, and up to ten days per decade in the North Pennines, near Penrith. 
https://theconversation.com/why-snow-days-are-becoming-increasingly-rare-in-the-uk-152038#:~:text=Met Office data shows that,the North Pennines%2C near Penrith.

 

As for the Antarctic Ice shelf...do you understand that the ice shelf is already in ocean? That it's composed of glaciers that were shed from the continent? That the ice shelf is contributing to rising sea levels?

"Antarctica is losing ice mass (melting) at an average rate of about 150 billion tons per year, and Greenland is losing about 270 billion tons per year, adding to sea level rise."

Data from NASA's GRACE and GRACE Follow-On satellites show that the land ice sheets in both Antarctica (upper chart) and Greenland (lower chart) have been losing mass since 2002.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

[JustAnotherHun]

For those who are intersted in more than a fast googled chart:

Here again is a very detailed study that lists the different regions of Antarctica and their trend of the ice shelf between 2009 and 2019 incl. data sheets and chart.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/2059/2023/

 

But this study must have been made by "deniers" and maybe even right wingers, I guess. Because what may not ber cannot be.

And the world is flat somehow...

????

[ozimoron]

2 hours ago, JustAnotherHun said:

For those who are intersted in more than a fast googled chart:

Here again is a very detailed study that lists the different regions of Antarctica and their trend of the ice shelf between 2009 and 2019 incl. data sheets and chart.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/2059/2023/

 

But this study must have been made by "deniers" and maybe even right wingers, I guess. Because what may not ber cannot be.

And the world is flat somehow...

????

It covers a period of ten years, a blink of an eye in climate terms. The past 4 years aren't covered. Not conclusive of anything. It also doesn't address the issue of new ice versus old ice.

[nauseus]

This "unprecedented" claim is false. The poles have been ice-free before.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18949-the-history-of-ice-on-earth/

 

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, nauseus said:

This "unprecedented" claim is false. The poles have been ice-free before.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18949-the-history-of-ice-on-earth/

 

The last time that occurred, at least for the Eurasian section of the Arctic was 4 million years ago.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms6608

 

Also, did you not this in the article you linked to?

"This temperature drop was triggered by the rise of the Himalayas. As they grew higher they were exposed to increased weathering, which sucked CO2 out of the atmosphere and reduced the greenhouse effect."

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

The last time that occurred, at least for the Eurasian section of the Arctic was 4 million years ago.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms6608

 

Also, did you not this in the article you linked to?

"This temperature drop was triggered by the rise of the Himalayas. As they grew higher they were exposed to increased weathering, which sucked CO2 out of the atmosphere and reduced the greenhouse effect."

It doesn't matter does it? "Unprecedented" means never done/known of before and in this case that is wrong. 

 

 

[ozimoron]

20 minutes ago, nauseus said:

It doesn't matter does it? "Unprecedented" means never done/known of before and in this case that is wrong.

That's highly tenuous. Claiming that it happened 4 million years ago so implying it's part of a natural cycle is just ridiculous.

 

The "unprecedented" means that the arctic has never been sufficiently ice free to allow shipping passage since ships were a thing.

 

The threat of an ice free arctic is made worse by the fact that it triggers a tipping point. The ice will no longer reflect the sun and so lead to even faster levels of global warming.

Edited June 10, 2023 by ozimoron

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

That's highly tenuous. Claiming that it happened 4 million years ago so implying it's part of a natural cycle is just ridiculous.

 

The "unprecedented" means that the arctic has never been sufficiently ice free to allow shipping passage since ships were a thing.

 

The threat of an ice free arctic is made worse by the fact that it triggers a tipping point. The ice will no longer reflect the sun and so lead to even faster levels of global warming.

I didn't say 4 million years ago. Nothing to do with shipping and I was not talking about threats. Why not try and sell gibberish this somewhere else?

 

 

 

[placeholder]

33 minutes ago, nauseus said:

It doesn't matter does it? "Unprecedented" means never done/known of before and in this case that is wrong. 

 

 

I wasn't aware that I was disagreeing with you. I'm still not. I just thought I would provide some useful additional information.