Thai economy set for boost as tourism and domestic consumption surge

[webfact]

 

The Thai economy is predicted to experience a boost in the second half of the year, driven by a surge in tourism and domestic consumption, according to the Economic Intelligence Service (EIS) of the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). However, ongoing political instability remains a factor to watch.

 

The EIS forecasts that Chinese tourist arrivals in Thailand will increase by three to four times the numbers recorded in 2022, reaching 5 to 6 million this year compared to 10 million in 2019.

 

EIS director Kirida Bhaopichitr believes that improved domestic consumption will be a key factor in stimulating the Thai economy during the latter half of the year.

 

Although Thai exports have experienced a boost due to China’s reopening, EIS anticipates a decline in total shipments this year, citing the risk of a global economic downturn and uncertainty surrounding the formation of a new government.

 

Bhaopichitr stated during a joint TDRI and Krungthai Card Public Co (KTC) media briefing, “Politics is another domestic risk factor which may dampen investors’ confidence as the formation of a new government escalates.

 

The political instability may delay the fiscal 2024 budget disbursement, thus affecting government spending in the fourth quarter of 2023.”

 

by Alex Morgan

Top Photo Courtesy of Flickr (Kenny Teo)

 

Source: https://thethaiger.com/news/national/thai-economy-set-for-boost-as-tourism-and-domestic-consumption-surge

 

-- © Copyright Thaiger 2023-06-13

 

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[ThailandRyan]

18 minutes ago, webfact said:

The EIS forecasts that Chinese tourist arrivals in Thailand will increase by three to four times the numbers recorded in 2022, reaching 5 to 6 million this year compared to 10 million in 2019.

Have they actually checked with the Chinese tourism industry to ensure the tourists are in the que, or is this just all speculation.

[worgeordie]

Domestic consumption will increase  = even more debt ....

 

regards worgeordie 

[Gottfrid]

Boss: Hey, what can we do to boost the value of the baht today. You have a great lie that will last for a day?

James: Yeah, why not try to say the economy is going good?

 

Boss: Ok, Let´s do it! Same procedure as last time, James

(James name is in reality Somchai)

[anchadian]

Not if Pita doesn't get to be the new PM.

[ChipButty]

Tourism is down right now, I had some family a couple of weeks ago staying in a 5 star hotel in Karon, only 5 rooms booked and at night the place was in darkness, restaurant closed, 

[proton]

Does anyone take this Thaiger material seriously? nice to know that the writer Mr Morgan is fluent in English anyway, vital here ???? It's old boss Tim has an almost opposite view of this 'surge'

[Smokey and the Bandit]

Strangely enough, another post today said:

 

"Economy will be the first casualty of rising political uncertainty"

 

I wonder who is right?

[Pi Tao]

Propangada.

[racket]

If consumption increases, then that will give BOT to raise rates further, especially if inflation picks up with all this expected inflation coming to fruition. Thai have a record high of personal debt, so this "consumption" could be debt driven, which isn't always as productive. 

[zzaa09]

Which economy are we speaking of?

The false and propped up variety or the real working class driven one? 

[blazes]

If the Prayut lot attempt to block the electoral will of the people, the resulting demonstrations will certainly persuade some tourists to give Thailand a miss this winter.....

[hotchilli]

16 hours ago, webfact said:

he Thai economy is predicted

More predictions.. talking up the economy is all this is.

 

[2baht]

16 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Have they actually checked with the Chinese tourism industry to ensure the tourists are in the que, or is this just all speculation.

Speculation? No way, a fortune teller told them! 

[cncltd1973]

55 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

More predictions.. talking up the economy is all this is.

 

the eternal hope of the Thai mind. if only they could convert hope to reality then they could all eat cake

[mikebell]

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

More predictions.. talking up the economy is all this is.

 

They do it all the time in the housing market.

[whiteman]

[Sydebolle]

So it is either excellent weed smoked by the goons or just the regular recurrence of day dreaming. 

Does anyone in his/her right mind think, that the present political Hickhack would help in any way to boost confidence of buyers or investors? Where does the Thai Baht stand in 2024 and later? 

Some 10+ years ago the red and yellow shirts celebrated their multi week stand-off with warlike cordons in downtown Bangkok and closed  airports - during in peace time. Is Thailand the right destination for their next holidays which they start planning now for winter 23/24?

Hundred thousands of tourists got stucked at Swampi, Don Meauioing and U-tapao; some lot their jobs because they were 2 weeks late back to work, others had financial impacts of "extra unpaid leave" as Western companies certainly would not cover "late return to work due to political unrest in Thailand" ..... International news services (BBC, CNN, DW, TV5 and France24, just to name a few) ensured proper coverage of the "fight of the Titans" in Thailand back then. 

The fight of the dinosaurs against elected MFP will affect foreign exchange rates for sure so, whatever those governmental agencies of DBD, TAT and other official fan clubs come up with - take it with the possible bigger-than-usual grain of salt! 

[jacko45k]

23 hours ago, worgeordie said:

Domestic consumption will increase  = even more debt ....

 

regards worgeordie 

Offset or aggravated by food exports to China.