Did Putin escape by the skin of his teeth?

[spidermike007]

It appears as of how, that the Wagner guys have backed down and decided not to go to war with Putin. 

 

This is a humiliating setback for Putin and makes him appear weak and desperate. He likely offered Prigozhin a billion or so, to go into exile in Belarus and call off the campaign, in addition to access to his fortune, and immunity for all of his men. 

 

Would the Russian defense forces have backed down and allowed him to sack Moscow? Is Putin really as dumb as he appears to be? Was the Ukraine campaign as poorly planned as it seems? Is Russia really this weak and pathetic? And what does this mean for the future of the Ukraine war? Will this be a turning point? 

[pegman]

The mercenary Wagner Group fighters in  Ukraine are being absorbed into the Russian military. Not a good outcome monetarily for it's owners like E.P. Whatever it was that happened the last couple days I'm pretty sure the Wagner forces moving towards Moscow would have been carpet bombed before they got too close. The western propaganda corporate media are selling Putin's demise as hard as WMD in Iraq a couple decades ago. Same fish are biting. 

[Tug]

45 minutes ago, pegman said:

The mercenary Wagner Group fighters in  Ukraine are being absorbed into the Russian military. Not a good outcome monetarily for it's owners like E.P. Whatever it was that happened the last couple days I'm pretty sure the Wagner forces moving towards Moscow would have been carpet bombed before they got too close. The western propaganda corporate media are selling Putin's demise as hard as WMD in Iraq a couple decades ago. Same fish are biting. 

There’s a lot of truth and I’m in agreement with you with this caveat This dident make Putin look good,the war criminal war lord got the word out to the Russian people that the war is being waged on a b.s.premise they heard.The Wagner troops are criminals from prison many are war criminals themselves that’s not a group you want in your military or society.in my humble opinion this bodes ill for the Russian army and people not to mention mr Putin.hopefully the Ukrainians can profit from this calamity.salva Ukraine ???????? evict the criminals from your country 

[kwilco]

Why do I get the feeling that Putin orchestrated all of this and now there can be a massive escalation of the war in Ukraine?

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, kwilco said:

Why do I get the feeling that Putin orchestrated all of this and now there can be a massive escalation of the war in Ukraine?

Maybe because Putin wanted to make himself look weak and indecisive? And because the head of Wagner said the grounds for invading Ukraine were lies?  Oh wait.. that doesn't work.

However, maybe he plans finally to deploy his huge reserve of troops and materiel that he's been holding back until now...oh wait...that doesn't work.

[kwilco]

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

Maybe because Putin wanted to make himself look weak and indecisive? And because the head of Wagner said the grounds for invading Ukraine were lies?  Oh wait.. that doesn't work.

However, maybe he plans finally to deploy his huge reserve of troops and materiel that he's been holding back until now...oh wait...that doesn't work.

It gives Putin the "go ahead" for a Stalin-style clampdown, dissolving a private army like Hitler did with the brown shirts and enables Putin to justify a massive escalation of the war in Ukraine.

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, kwilco said:

It gives Putin the "go ahead" for a Stalin-style clampdown, dissolving a private army like Hitler did with the brown shirts and enables Putin to justify a massive escalation of the war in Ukraine.

Why did Putin need a "go-ahead"? Who is there to oppose him? When Hitler clamped down on the brown shirts Germany wasn't at war, was it? And Putin's going to disarm the most potent soldiers he has? And what kind of escalation can Putin do given that his supplies of materiel are running low and he's now using ancient tanks to fight this war? You really think it makes Putin looks strong that after threatening to prosecute Prigozhin for treason and anyone who conspired with him, Putin then backed down? Really?

[kwilco]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

Why did Putin need a "go-ahead"? Who is there to oppose him? When Hitler clamped down on the brown shirts Germany wasn't at war, was it? And Putin's going to disarm the most potent soldiers he has? And what kind of escalation can Putin do given that his supplies of materiel are running low and he's now using ancient tanks to fight this war? You really think it makes Putin looks strong that after threatening to prosecute Prigozhin for treason and anyone who conspired with him, Putin then backed down? Really?

When Hitler suppressed the Brownshirts, Germany wasn't at war, right? It doesn't necessarily mean the situation is identical with Russia and Putin.

Moreover, is Putin really going to disarm his most powerful soldiers? The crack troops are now under Putin's control, and he has a clean slate in Belarus, potentially preparing for an invasion of Ukraine according to Prigozhin.

Regarding the issue of Putin's dwindling supplies of military equipment and his reliance on outdated tanks, it's worth noting that Russia possesses vast resources, particularly in manpower. If Putin plans to deploy large numbers of soldiers, he needs to maintain public support, regardless of any concerns about supplies.

As for Putin's decision to back down after threatening to prosecute Prigozhin for treason and those who conspired with him, it may not necessarily make him appear strong. However, there is a possibility that this situation will be used as a pretext for a Stalin-like purge, allowing Putin to eliminate any opposition within the army or other spheres of influence.

 

I think your desire to dichotomise my comments seems to indicate you don’t have the critical thinking skills to fully appreciate the nuances of this war – I’m sure you haven’t given any thought to the future of this conflict your judgement is clouded by your jingoism

 

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, kwilco said:

When Hitler suppressed the Brownshirts, Germany wasn't at war, right? It doesn't necessarily mean the situation is identical with Russia and Putin.

Moreover, is Putin really going to disarm his most powerful soldiers? The crack troops are now under Putin's control, and he has a clean slate in Belarus, potentially preparing for an invasion of Ukraine according to Prigozhin.

Regarding the issue of Putin's dwindling supplies of military equipment and his reliance on outdated tanks, it's worth noting that Russia possesses vast resources, particularly in manpower. If Putin plans to deploy large numbers of soldiers, he needs to maintain public support, regardless of any concerns about supplies.

As for Putin's decision to back down after threatening to prosecute Prigozhin for treason and those who conspired with him, it may not necessarily make him appear strong. However, there is a possibility that this situation will be used as a pretext for a Stalin-like purge, allowing Putin to eliminate any opposition within the army or other spheres of influence.

 

I think your desire to dichotomise my comments seems to indicate you don’t have the critical thinking skills to fully appreciate the nuances of this war – I’m sure you haven’t given any thought to the future of this conflict your judgement is clouded by your jingoism

 

Well, thanks for the personal assessment of my IQ. Of course, if your diagnosis of me is correct, then experts in the history of warfare such as Phillips O'Brien and pretty much all the analysists  at the Institute for the Study of War, and, in fact  most other experts on the situation also suffer from a deficient IQ. 

And while you're misguidedly throwing around 5 dollar words like dichotomize

"to divide into two parts, classes, or groups"

you might also want to review what "jingoism" means. 

"extreme patriotism, especially in the form of aggressive or warlike foreign policy."

I'm not sure how my take on the situation, as well as that of most genuine authorities on the subject, stems from  jingoism. What have I said that has anything to do with extreme patriotism? Care to enlighten me?

As for your comment about Russia's vast resources, i.e. warm bodies, what are they going to do with all of them, equip them with bows and arrows?

As for Putin having control over the Wagner troops, that might be a doubtful proposition. Not a sure thing that troops who mutinied a few short days ago, are going to submit to being commanded by the same armed forces commanders that they've learned to despise. Or that Putin will trust them.

+

[pegman]

14 hours ago, kwilco said:

Why do I get the feeling that Putin orchestrated all of this and now there can be a massive escalation of the war in Ukraine?

I tend to agree with you.  This analyst states that it was a suicide mission to head to Moscow. I always thought that Putin was himself the major silent partner  owner of the Wagner Group. Most likely some sort of a business disagreement.

 

 

 

 

[Scott]

Inflammatory post removed.  Continue with the personal commentary about others and face a suspension.   Stay on topic, please.  

[kwilco]

On 6/26/2023 at 6:20 PM, placeholder said:

Well, thanks for the personal assessment of my IQ. Of course, if your diagnosis of me is correct, then experts in the history of warfare such as Phillips O'Brien and pretty much all the analysists  at the Institute for the Study of War, and, in fact  most other experts on the situation also suffer from a deficient IQ. 

And while you're misguidedly throwing around 5 dollar words like dichotomize

"to divide into two parts, classes, or groups"

you might also want to review what "jingoism" means. 

"extreme patriotism, especially in the form of aggressive or warlike foreign policy."

I'm not sure how my take on the situation, as well as that of most genuine authorities on the subject, stems from  jingoism. What have I said that has anything to do with extreme patriotism? Care to enlighten me?

As for your comment about Russia's vast resources, i.e. warm bodies, what are they going to do with all of them, equip them with bows and arrows?

As for Putin having control over the Wagner troops, that might be a doubtful proposition. Not a sure thing that troops who mutinied a few short days ago, are going to submit to being commanded by the same armed forces commanders that they've learned to despise. Or that Putin will trust them.

+

I think if you read the other posts and keep up with events in Russia, you'll see what I mean.

Edited June 28, 2023 by kwilco

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, kwilco said:

I think if you read the other posts and keep up with events in Russia, you'll see what I mean.

I don't know what events you are referring to. I do know that Putin has begun to crack down on Progozhin's allies. Which is what you would expect to happen. That includes hardliners such as General Surovkin. Putin seems to have doubled down on his support for the incompetents who have so far led the war effort. The hardliners look like they're out. How any of this proves that Putin is preparing for a major escalation is beyond me. Especially as Putin doesn't have the means to escalate. Russian industry resources currently can't keep up with demands for materiel andis already suffering from labor shortages. .

[ballpoint]

The Moscow Times is reporting that General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy chief of staff of Russia's armed forces has been arrested for alleged involvement in the rebellion.  The mistrust, suspicion, and subsequent purge beginning to bite Putin?

 

 

[kwilco]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

I don't know what events you are referring to. I do know that Putin has begun to crack down on Progozhin's allies. Which is what you would expect to happen. That includes hardliners such as General Surovkin. Putin seems to have doubled down on his support for the incompetents who have so far led the war effort. The hardliners look like they're out. How any of this proves that Putin is preparing for a major escalation is beyond me. Especially as Putin doesn't have the means to escalate. Russian industry resources currently can't keep up with demands for materiel andis already suffering from labor shortages. .

" there is a possibility that this situation will be used as a pretext for a Stalin-like purge, allowing Putin to eliminate any opposition within the army or other spheres of influence." - and he has excated the bombing of Ukrainian cites. - Also there is more talk of nuclear use.

[placeholder]

14 minutes ago, kwilco said:

" there is a possibility that this situation will be used as a pretext for a Stalin-like purge, allowing Putin to eliminate any opposition within the army or other spheres of influence." - and he has excated the bombing of Ukrainian cites. - Also there is more talk of nuclear use.

Who are you quoting?

 

I

Edited June 29, 2023 by placeholder

[placeholder]

On 6/27/2023 at 3:17 AM, pegman said:

I tend to agree with you.  This analyst states that it was a suicide mission to head to Moscow. I always thought that Putin was himself the major silent partner  owner of the Wagner Group. Most likely some sort of a business disagreement.

 

 

 

 

t's pretty clear what happened. Prigozhin lost the power struggle with Shoigu et alii. A deadline of June 30 was imposed for Wagner to place itself under the control of the regular Russian armed forces. Prigozhin decided to resist by making a desperate play to have his enemies deposed from power. What surprised him was how little resistance there was to his efforts. It looks like that was due, at least in part, to support from hardliners in the Russian military. But his gambit failed. Or rather it succeeded too well and showed up the weakness of the Putin's situation.

[kwilco]

10 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Who are you quoting?

 

I

Me in the post you were gainsaying

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Me in the post you were gainsaying

But Putin is purging the hardliners. That's hardly a way to prepare for an escalated conflict.