Thailand to move away from foreign tourism and rely more on home travellers in the latest TAT masterplan

[zzzzz]

On 12/13/2023 at 2:34 AM, webfact said:

Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT)’s new governor, Thapanee Kiatpaiboon, faces a challenging role as she guides the country’s tourism industry in the aftermath of the pandemic era. Last week, she signalled a shift away from dependence on foreign tourism and popular hotspots in a move towards domestic tourism and secondary destinations.

 

Thailand’s tourism industry faces a 40% decline in revenues this year compared to 2019, prompting a reevaluation. A disappointing response from Chinese tourists and a lack of Western enthusiasm have necessitated a focus on domestic travel and second-tier cities.

With foreign tourism visitor and income projections for 2023 being revised downwards and projected to be nearly 40% off 2019 revenue figures with fewer visitors, off by 30% and lower spenders because of an absence of Western tourists, Thailand’s newly appointed tourism agency chief is signalling a move towards more domestic tourism as she plots a course to 2027 when she hopes 40% of the country’s tourism income will be generated at home while the tourist sector itself will grow to a whopping 27% of GDP.

 

Facing a 40% decline overall in revenues from 2019, rejection from Chinese tourists and lack of former enthusiasm from Western travellers, Thailand’s tourism industry seeks a new direction.

 

With a projected income of ฿1.2 trillion this year, 39.39% less than 2019, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) now eyes 28 million arrivals this year but many Bangkok-based analysts suggest this would be a positive outcome for the year given the pronounced decline in trends.

 

by James Morris and Son Nguyen

 

Full story: Thai Examiner.com 2023-12-13

 

- Cigna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

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5555:

move to domestic tourism?

How when the population is not cash positive an suffering cause the International tourism is down??

 

 

[newnative]

5 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

But the metrics are exactly the same, flights opened, 2.5%, flights closed for 9 months, still 2.5%. 

 

OK, I accept you argument that the cumulative effect of lots of 2.5% ers from different countries, do add up. As much as anything I'm playing devils advocate on this in order to reinforce the fact that Western expats, in particular Brits, are not the salvation of the Thai tourist industry, which many posters seem to think they are. The reality is that Asian expats are the Thai's target market, they are the bread and butter of the industry whilst a smattering of westerners provide greater profit per capita but will never be in the majority, or even close to it.

      Agree.  I've made the same argument when posters have discounted the Asian market because the spend is less per tourist--not to mention the tiresome argument that none of the tourist revenue stays in Thailand.  Thailand will continue to draw more of its tourist numbers, and revenue, from regional Asian countries.  Which actually is pretty normal--the top seven countries visiting France are its regional neighbors. 

    Thailand is fortunate that the 2 most populous countries in the world are short plane rides away, not to mention Indonesia at #4.  My spouse and I were in the Hunan province of China last week and the plane ride was less than 4 hours from Bangkok.   Things may be slow now but these Asian numbers will return.

     One thing I found interesting from the 2015 to 2019 stats was that visitors from the US increased almost 35%.  In comparison, the European countries that were tracked increased by only around 5 to 13%, except Russia.  Even with USA's big increase, the 2019 figure for visitors from America was only 1,168,000.  There are 339 million Americans vs. just 68 million in the UK, yet the UK's 2019 numbers were close to America's, at nearly a million. 

    Looking at the comparison between the US and the UK, it would seem that TAT has an opportunity to tap the American market and increase the visitors from that country.  The 35% increase from 2015 to 2019 shows that more Americans were willing to make the long trip during that period--and, as an American, I can vouch that it is a long trip.  Now that the world is opening up again, TAT could see about improving the American numbers.  Given the population size, I think they should be higher.

      

[Hanuman2547]

This isn't going to work out the way the officials at the TAT are hoping for.  

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, Hanuman2547 said:

This isn't going to work out the way the officials at the TAT are hoping for.  

It's worth a shot, that's for sure. Moving a way from reliance on overseas tourists is a very very good thing. People will always find money to do the tihngs they want to do and most find a way to take a holiday somewhere, no matter how short or near.

[Srikcir]

10 hours ago, soalbundy said:

I disagree, the price depends on supply and demand, as demand fell in the US and elsewhere causing prices to fall OPEC decided to cut supply in the expectation this would raise prices but prices still fell because demand (chiefly from car owners) wasn't there, it wasn't there because the public lacks cash to buy. What the supply cuts have done is reduce energy for industry. The reason Germany has entered recession is due to the lack of cheap plentiful supply of energy from Russia. As the major world economies enter recession industry cuts back on production as demand for products falls which causes unemployment which further reduces demand, a vicious cycle that OPEC has only made worse.

The US is a major exporter of energy with several other nonOPEC nations that helped EU cut energy purchases from Russia. Russia in turn offered 20% price discounts for its oil payable in rubles as a way around the Western sanctions against the ruble. Some countries like India, China and Thailand fell for the Russian energy bait.

As far as making things worse after the covid pandemic, POTUS asked OPEC to cut supply that would raise fuel prices to help US oil companies profit margins. 

[soalbundy]

21 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

The US is a major exporter of energy with several other nonOPEC nations that helped EU cut energy purchases from Russia. Russia in turn offered 20% price discounts for its oil payable in rubles as a way around the Western sanctions against the ruble. Some countries like India, China and Thailand fell for the Russian energy bait.

As far as making things worse after the covid pandemic, POTUS asked OPEC to cut supply that would raise fuel prices to help US oil companies profit margins. 

Cutting supply when there is less demand is like coal miners going on strike in the summer, whatever it isn't working out for them, the price is still low. Only when the money supply is allowed to increase and industry starts to rebound then  an energy supply  cut will cause oil prices to rise. Energy supply countries are also heavily invested in western industries so it is in their own interest not to damage these too much. Eventually this Ukraine/Russian fiasco will end and cheap Russian oil will start rolling westwards again, the infrastructure is still there and the west is pragmatic regarding profit.

Edited December 14, 2023 by soalbundy

[greeneking]

On 12/13/2023 at 10:34 AM, ikke1959 said:

No clue to solve the problem and to be attractive again for foreign tourists. So local tourist more public holidays more borrowing and loan  to show how wealthy the middle class is to go on holiday and more debts.. TAT why are they needed? they have no clue come with fake numbers and ideas that are stupid. And they call it a masterplan.. 

Yes, why are they needed.  One say they are setting up Middle East roadshows and the next they are focusing  on domestic tourists. Anyone remember when they were targeting millionaire cyclists?

The Ministry  of Sports and Tourism could take over and save the county a lot of money.

[Shoeless Joe]

Where does the government think that the money will come from for Thais to pay for holidays? The minimum wage doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for family cross-country trips. Can those Thais eligible for the promised 10,000 baht handout from the government spend it on travel / holidays? 

 

Joe

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, Shoeless Joe said:

Where does the government think that the money will come from for Thais to pay for holidays? The minimum wage doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for family cross-country trips. Can those Thais eligible for the promised 10,000 baht handout from the government spend it on travel / holidays? 

 

Joe

Some of you guys seem to think the native population comprises 50 really rich people and 79 million poor people, it's far too funny for words sometimes. Anecdotally:

 

My physiotherapist just returned from her second holiday in Korea; a Thai neighbour retired, takes his family to Japan skiing every year; my doctor just earned 50k Baht for performing 4 hours of surgery on me  month ago, she does this 300 times a year; an old friend in Phuket bought a new merc this year, she runs her own construction company; another female friend is a hotel manager, she took her family to London in the summer; another friend runs a coffee shop/restaurant, she and her husband holiday overseas every year.....these just off the top of my head, none are rich, they are all middle class Thai's, there are millions of them.

[ikke1959]

34 minutes ago, Shoeless Joe said:

Where does the government think that the money will come from for Thais to pay for holidays? The minimum wage doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for family cross-country trips. Can those Thais eligible for the promised 10,000 baht handout from the government spend it on travel / holidays? 

 

Joe

Probably with 6 THB a day extra they could have an extra drink on an extra holiday.. Soft power, to boost the economy 

[Shoeless Joe]

1 hour ago, Mike Lister said:

Some of you guys seem to think the native population comprises 50 really rich people and 79 million poor people, it's far too funny for words sometimes. Anecdotally:

 

My physiotherapist just returned from her second holiday in Korea; a Thai neighbour retired, takes his family to Japan skiing every year; my doctor just earned 50k Baht for performing 4 hours of surgery on me  month ago, she does this 300 times a year; an old friend in Phuket bought a new merc this year, she runs her own construction company; another female friend is a hotel manager, she took her family to London in the summer; another friend runs a coffee shop/restaurant, she and her husband holiday overseas every year.....these just off the top of my head, none are rich, they are all middle class Thai's, there are millions of them.

Thank you for your informed reply. 

[Mike Lister]

Pre-covid, outbound Thai holiday makers recorded 11.2 mill. departures, 70% to regional destinations. Currently, that market segment has recovered by about 50% - see the Bangkok Post article entitled, "Outbound market keeps focus on Asia". This is the segment that TAT wants to focus on because these are the middle class people that have money and who take other breaks in Thailand. Most farangs who live in farang ghetto's and in Pattaya or in poorer rural villages hardly ever see these people because they don't hang out in bars or in Walking Street etc. but they are very real and there are lots of them

[jacko45k]

On 12/13/2023 at 6:39 PM, Highlandman said:

Lol. Much faster to come by plane. I like high speed trains too, but unless one has a fear of flying, they're going to continue flying rather than catching a train, which takes far too long for most short term tourists with little time.

Might also depend on how the fares compare. 

A train from Western China may well be well under the current 24 hours and attract some....

[thaibeachlovers]

On 12/13/2023 at 4:28 PM, spidermike007 said:

3. Thailand cannot and will not attract wealthy or even affluent tourists, for a dozen good reasons. No sacrifices are being made, to make Thailand more appealing to them. 

For a change I agree with you on the essence of your post. Thailand is not and never was a destination for the rich, unless they went to a 5 star place and never left it, of which there are many.

 

However, as the beaches were IMO ruined to cater for the well off western flashpacker, IMO they can all bog off and let Thailand cater for the average tourist again.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Mike Lister said:

This is the segment that TAT wants to focus on because these are the middle class people that have money and who take other breaks in Thailand. Most farangs who live in farang ghetto's and in Pattaya or in poorer rural villages hardly ever see these people because they don't hang out in bars or in Walking Street etc. but they are very real and there are lots of them

Perhaps so but they won't stay in the sort of places the average young western bagpacker will, so will not save the lower end accommodation. However, I doubt hiso Thais give a rat's bottom for the less affluent Thais struggling to make a living.

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

Some of you guys seem to think the native population comprises 50 really rich people and 79 million poor people, it's far too funny for words sometimes. Anecdotally:

 

My physiotherapist just returned from her second holiday in Korea; a Thai neighbour retired, takes his family to Japan skiing every year; my doctor just earned 50k Baht for performing 4 hours of surgery on me  month ago, she does this 300 times a year; an old friend in Phuket bought a new merc this year, she runs her own construction company; another female friend is a hotel manager, she took her family to London in the summer; another friend runs a coffee shop/restaurant, she and her husband holiday overseas every year.....these just off the top of my head, none are rich, they are all middle class Thai's, there are millions of them.

and how much of that is on credit?

Middle class is vanishing in the west, apparently, and the Thais will follow.

AI robotics will change everything.

[Mike Lister]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps so but they won't stay in the sort of places the average young western bagpacker will, so will not save the lower end accommodation. However, I doubt hiso Thais give a rat's bottom for the less affluent Thais struggling to make a living.

That's exactly my point, these are not hi-so Thai's they are middle class Thai's who stay in 4 and 5 star hotels.

 

This is an excellent read.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/you-can-kiss-your-4-star-thailand-vacation-goodbye-2022-5

[Mike Lister]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

and how much of that is on credit?

Middle class is vanishing in the west, apparently, and the Thais will follow.

AI robotics will change everything.

I dunno, but there's good credit and bad credit. If you have assets and income, credit can be good and most middle class Thai's have both those things. .Remember when you had both things and you wanted a holiday, you probably went, I did.

[Tamarcka]

You are making a rocket science. It's simple. There is no option to buy flight tickets under 800 €, average price in high season (January, February) is around 1.000 €+, before covid around 500 € ... there is no option to get a solid hotel room under 80 €/per night ... before covid around 40 € or 50 € ...  Alcohol is way too expensive, also daily tours, for example some island hoping and similar ... you shoud know that we would like to relax not daily control our holiday budget ... This prices are almost on Europe level. If we go to Thailand we go for minimum two weeks ... now you can calculate. Then unreasonable restrictions about smoking e-cigarettes ... at least 20% of western smoking cigarettes alternatives. 

 

We can also talk about Thailand as it once was. I understand development, yes, but lost its charm. Sorry. 

 

This year I decided to go to Zanzibar. It's not very cheap but cheapest comparing Thailand. From when? :)  And not so much restrictions! 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Tamarcka

[ChipButty]

We went out for dinner last night around 6 pm to the gypsy village in Rawai which is popular with tourist, the restaurant we were in was busy but mostly locals only a couple of farang's with their wifes like me, but the area was not busy I looked in other places, couple of people here and there, seemed people were just walking about, normally the place is rammed it was easy to park, It is not as busy this year, 

 

[Mike Lister]

36 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

We went out for dinner last night around 6 pm to the gypsy village in Rawai which is popular with tourist, the restaurant we were in was busy but mostly locals only a couple of farang's with their wifes like me, but the area was not busy I looked in other places, couple of people here and there, seemed people were just walking about, normally the place is rammed it was easy to park, It is not as busy this year, 

 

Phuket's become expensive, tourists know this and can find cheaper destinations in Thailand.

[Highlandman]

On 12/15/2023 at 6:54 AM, jacko45k said:

Might also depend on how the fares compare. 

A train from Western China may well be well under the current 24 hours and attract some....

 

Yes, possibly, and in fact I just returned from China and went there/traveled through the country by a combination of transportation modes. First car (drove to Luang Prabang and back home again from there at the end) and then train to Kunming, another train to Sichuan the next day, then car to the next stop in Northern Sichuan and finally car/flight from Chengdu to Kunming and train/car back to Thailand.

 

I really enjoyed the Luang Prabang to South Kunming train ride, 160km/h top speed. Actual travel time not including the 2 hours spent at the border (1 hour for each side) was around 5h30m.

 

The train to Sichuan was bound for Chengdu, but my business trip required me to alight about 2/3 of the way in the mountainous region to the south of Chengdu. Was expecting this leg of the journey to be faster, but also only 160km/h, so it took 5h30m as well and this from the main Kunming station. That stated, the fastest trains between Kunming and Chengdu are listed as taking around 5h30m as well, meaning minimal stops along the way. My train stopped a lot.

 

All these lines are new though (less than 5-6 years) and conceivably at some stage their speeds can be increased. Kumming-Dali for instance, which I took in July 2023 runs at a top speed of 200km/h. 

 

I think someone coming from no further than Chengdu might consider traveling by train to Thailand in the future but anything further away will still be by plane unless you have tons of time and/or don't like flying.

 

Incidentally, I met a Chinese businessman in Vientiane with whom I traveled to Kunming, he went all the way from Luang Prabang to Chengdu by train. Incidentally, he mentioned something about not feeling safe flying in the mountains though he flew Air Asia from Phnom Penh via Bangkok to Vientiane on his earlier leg of the journey (which has very few mountains en route or surrounding any of the three airports).

[jacko45k]

18 hours ago, Highlandman said:

Yes, possibly, and in fact I just returned from China and went there/traveled through the country

Good feedback on the rails system in China..... one cannot begin to compare to the overpriced failing UK one.