Thailand’s economic growth potentially in decline, SCB EIC warns

[webfact]

 

The Siam Commercial Bank’s research wing, SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), expressed concern over the potential decline in Thailand’s long-term economic growth. It has attributed this to enduring structural problems, such as low investment, diminished total factor productivity, and the economic impact of the pandemic.

 

Chief Economist at SCB EIC, Somprawin Manprasert, revealed that Thailand’s economic recovery has been more sluggish than its neighbouring countries, including Malaysia, Vietnam, and China.

 

Thailand experienced rapid growth, at an annual rate of around 8%, before the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Growth slowed to an average of 3.9% during 2000–2014, declining to around 3% at present, and it will be at this level for the next few years. The subpar GDP growth is mainly due to a significant slowdown of private investment, Somprawin stated.

Furthermore, he indicated that the Thai economy is fragile due to high levels of debt among households and businesses, particularly among low-income earners and small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The economy also faces external uncertainties, such as climate change and escalating geopolitical conflicts, and internal concerns like government policies that require close monitoring.

 

by Alex Morgan Alex Morgan

PHOTO: via asian roots online

 

Full story: The Thaiger 2023-12-15

 

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[mfd101]

All the usual Thai cultural problems.

 

When the best you can aspire to - collectively or individually - is worker-bee status in the 3rd World/2nd World borderlands, then you're not going to head up towards the bright lights of technological creativity. Slumming it is all we can look forward to.

[ikke1959]

No news.. I have said it already months ago...with a conservative Government that only does pocketfilling, and nothing to improve tourism, infrastructure, double pricings, and manipulated THB it is no wonder that it will go backwarts... and of course blame the pandemic but other countries had the same and do better

[impulse]

Who would have figured that, with so many snouts in the trough, there wouldn't be enough left over for things like development and growth?

 

[Henk Langeweg]

Looking for an excuse to keep the poor .... poor?

[Cabradelmar]

Nothing new to see here... The economy is failing because the education system is failing. Not to mention poor corporate governance, rampant corruption, and antiquated tax laws. You have to be crazy to want to invest in Thailand. Yet all the PM can think to do is promote more populist giveaways.

[hotchilli]

18 hours ago, webfact said:

The Siam Commercial Bank’s research wing, SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), expressed concern over the potential decline in Thailand’s long-term economic growth. It has attributed this to enduring structural problems, such as low investment, diminished total factor productivity, and the economic impact of the pandemic.

The pandemic is long gone, start by stating the truth about the Thai economy now.

[stoner]

thailand is in serious trouble. the dinosaurs running the show are totally blind to the new world that is emerging. the longer this charade continues the harder it will be for thailand to ever reach a point where things are progressing.  

 

in the next say 5 years there will be a massive eye opening for this country and culture. either change your stubborn ways or be forever a country in constant struggle. 

 

as the saying goes laew tae khun ........

[CartagenaWarlock]

Well, the gig of opening brothels masquerading as bars to parade the nation's daughters from the most impoverished parts as brides to attract desperate older people for a comfortable living using "wify" visa has to come to an end. 

[Mike Lister]

Many in this thread seem unable to separate the realities of the Thai economy from the things about Thailand that they don't personally like and from many of the old bar stool stories that have persisted for years.

 

Of course, bar girls and semi hidden prostitution is not a good picture and certainly, corruption is a major issue that must be dealt with. Yes, the education system could be better and yes, there is a serious lack of external competition plus quality in many areas is poor.

 

But none of those things are serious negative impacts on the Thai economy and only detract from the fact that in 2019, Thailand reached a year on year record of 39 million tourists and if covid had not come along, that number would be far higher today. The fact that covid did come along means that global recovery has been slow but today, international arrivals are back to almost three quarters of their previous peak.

 

Exports this year posted the third highest monthly export amounts ever, October was USD 25.5 bill. and that's even with the Chinese economy way below par.

 

Government borrowings are still only 58% of GDP, that's ridiculously low by comparison and even the IMF has urged Thailand to increase deficit spending to increase infrastructure build out. It's worth noting that government debt today is almost exactly what it was 25 years ago! (we're not talking about household or consumer debt, that is not directly relevant).

 

As for the Baht being manipulated: that old chestnut has been done to death and only gets regurgitated by die in the wool lifelong conspiracy theorists, it's time to let it go! 

 

Sure, other countries in the region are doing better in some areas but if you set aside your personal biases for a moment and look at the state of the Thai economy objectively, you'll finally realise that it might not be as good as some in government want it to be but it's actually in pretty good shape. 

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

 

[Guderian]

At least the author isn't blaming all of Thailand's economic malaise on the lack of Chinese tourists, unlike the TAT, lol.

[Dogmatix]

PT's digital wallet will save the day.

[soalbundy]

Growth in the west is sub par as well, If the central banks don't cut rates soon I think we are heading for a world wide economic crisis, Thailand seems to be doing relatively well from my perspective, slow but steady.

[Mike Lister]

10 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

Growth in the west is sub par as well, If the central banks don't cut rates soon I think we are heading for a world wide economic crisis, Thailand seems to be doing relatively well from my perspective, slow but steady.

JP Morgan is forecasting a synchronised global slowdown next year yet equities markets are forecasting above average growth with the S&P and the Dow both hitting record highs this month.

[soalbundy]

1 minute ago, Mike Lister said:

JP Morgan is forecasting a synchronised global slowdown next year yet equities markets are forecasting above average growth with the S&P and the Dow both hitting record highs this month.

Traders reading the tea leaves of rate reductions, which may come sooner than expected because the central banks have overdone the tightening. The credit restrictions are destroying the real economy, once unemployment starts to rise rapidly the rates may, due to panic, fall to zero again.....too late as usual, the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing. When ultra low rates start appearing the banks will restrict credit even more because they aren't earning enough to offset risk caused by a lag in demand and high unemployment, ultimately this will cause inflation to drop well below the 2% mark due to a lack in demand as consumers no longer have the discretionary money to buy and we enter the dangerous territory of deflation which will destroy the stock market eventually.

[Mike Lister]

20 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

Traders reading the tea leaves of rate reductions, which may come sooner than expected because the central banks have overdone the tightening. The credit restrictions are destroying the real economy, once unemployment starts to rise rapidly the rates may, due to panic, fall to zero again.....too late as usual, the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing. When ultra low rates start appearing the banks will restrict credit even more because they aren't earning enough to offset risk caused by a lag in demand and high unemployment, ultimately this will cause inflation to drop well below the 2% mark due to a lack in demand as consumers no longer have the discretionary money to buy and we enter the dangerous territory of deflation which will destroy the stock market eventually.

I agree, that's a very possible scenario but I like to think with all the data that is out there, Jerome will do a better job this time around than the Fed has done in the past.

[soalbundy]

3 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

I agree, that's a very possible scenario but I like to think with all the data that is out there, Jerome will do a better job this time around than the Fed has done in the past.

He and the central banks only think they control the market, the real economy, industry and consumer sentiment, control, unwittingly, what happens. China is desperately trying to convince people to buy property again, large sums of money are being poured into the banks who are being told to give credit to the failing property developers but consumers are having none of it, confidence has been lost. General consumption is also down due to high unemployment and so factory gate prices are falling, this is deflation which will be exported to the west. Jerome may have the data but he isn't looking at the broad picture, they are all fixated on inflation (which would have fallen to 2% if they had stopped tightening long ago), the lag effect was ignored, now they will overshoot in a destroyed economy.

[Gknrd]

Ah, it is like the stock market. Smart investors have a well rounded diversifid portfolio. What does that do you ask?  It insulates you against the potental downturn of one market or stock.  

The idiots in Thailand picked one market and shunned the others. Betting all on the Chinese!  Now the Chines are in trouble and it is to late to diversify it's portfolio. It burned its bridges.

Strickly a poor management decision. Nothing more. 

[Gknrd]

3 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

JP Morgan is forecasting a synchronised global slowdown next year yet equities markets are forecasting above average growth with the S&P and the Dow both hitting record highs this month.

Yea, I personally quit pumping money into the market about 8 months ago. I will ride the high now. And I am at all time highs ( in regards to my small investments compared to others). In the US it is just a way of life. Boom and bust. Personally I love it. It is a ballenced and transparent market.  Market gets out of hand and you have a bust. It levels it's self out naturally.

Right now it shows you where the world is dumping its money. And as the stats show it ain't in China!

 

[phil2407]

When will this country stop blaming everything on the pandemic? It's over move on! Maybe try blaming previous government, corruption & pure greed instead - people might believe you then!!! 

[stoner]

4 hours ago, Gknrd said:

Right now it shows you where the world is dumping its money. And as the stats show it ain't in China!

 

 

got something i can read about this please. 

[CDG931]

8 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

JP Morgan is forecasting a synchronised global slowdown next year yet equities markets are forecasting above average growth with the S&P and the Dow both hitting record highs this month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[peter zwart]

On 12/15/2023 at 12:41 PM, ikke1959 said:

No news.. I have said it already months ago...with a conservative Government that only does pocketfilling, and nothing to improve tourism, infrastructure, double pricings, and manipulated THB it is no wonder that it will go backwarts... and of course blame the pandemic but other countries had the same and do better

And dont forget: educate your people so that are able to do at least simple things good.

[mfd101]

10 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

But none of those things are serious negative impacts on the Thai economy and only detract from the fact that in 2019, Thailand reached a year on year record of 39 million tourists and if covid had not come along, that number would be far higher today. The fact that covid did come along means that global recovery has been slow but today, international arrivals are back to almost three quarters of their previous peak.

So salvation will come from more and more tourism?

 

I don't think so. Tourism does 2 things: (1) confirms and prolongs your status as a low-education, low-productivity, low-tech Second/Third World economy & society; (2) destroys the basis of its own success - 'Come in your millions to see our pristine beaches!'.

[Mike Lister]

2 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

So salvation will come from more and more tourism?

 

I don't think so. Tourism does 2 things: (1) confirms and prolongs your status as a low-education, low-productivity, low-tech Second/Third World economy & society; (2) destroys the basis of its own success - 'Come in your millions to see our pristine beaches!'.

Er, no, that's not what I said and no, it's not what I intended either!

 

International tourism is around 12% of GDP, Customs or Goods Exports are about 58% of GDP. If salvation is coming from anywhere, it's from a combination of  things, those two plus domestic tourism which is a further 9% of GDP.

[ikke1959]

2 hours ago, peter zwart said:

And dont forget: educate your people so that are able to do at least simple things good.

They are so well educated that even simple things seems to be difficult... 

[jacko45k]

19 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Growth in the west is sub par as well, If the central banks don't cut rates soon I think we are heading for a world wide economic crisis, Thailand seems to be doing relatively well from my perspective, slow but steady.

Thailand is doing fine, even the recovery of tourism is coming along despite all their whining and hand wringing. Post Covid with many countries near recession, high inflation and expensive flights notwithstanding.