Thailand’s tourism recovery under threat from safety concerns and sluggish Chinese economy

[trainman34014]

20 hours ago, stix40 said:

Less Chinese good news !

Now invest in tidying the place up and improving the info structure but without losing Thailand's identity ! 

 

 

But; but....that is Thailands Identity !!

[Cabradelmar]

On 12/16/2023 at 2:42 PM, kentrot said:

When is this News Outlet going to admit that TOURISM is only  12-15% of the GDP ?

 

Can we PLEASE get some news about the general state of the economy  and the other 85% of the GDP

or is that asking too much ?

 

For many of your readers, we are full time residents.

We don't need  heavy rotation of  "tourist" stories !

 

There - I vented and feel slightly better

until the next "tourist in trouble" story pops up

 

 

The NESDB, Thailand's official economic planning agency, uses a sector-based classification system. As of 2023, the major breakdown is:

• Service Sector: 56.18% (including wholesale & retail, tourism, finance, real estate, etc.)
• Industrial Sector: 34.99% (manufacturing, construction, utilities)
• Agricultural Sector: 8.82% (farming, fishing, forestry)

No matter how you cut it, tourism (as a % of total GDP) is a big number and represents a certain level of industry concentration risk: 18% per Nikkei Asia reports. Only manufacturing at 20% is larger - with low profit margin sub-sectors textile & garments, and food processing representing half of that number. The believe it or not, the Thai government aims for the tourism sector to contribute 30% of GDP by 2030. Which seems incredibly rosey/optimistic, not to mention furthering the existing industry concentration risk. When you uncover the details details, Thailand's economy is, at best, while large, sluggish. The only real bright spots are electronics and automotive, but that's < 8% of total GDP.

[stix40]

5 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

But; but....that is Thailands Identity !!

🤣

[StayinThailand2much]

On 12/16/2023 at 6:00 PM, Grusa said:

On 12/16/2023 at 5:44 PM, Expat Tom said:

Of course, you can't believe everything you see on the internet so some basic cross referencing and critical thinking skills are required. 

Arai na?......

 

Correct. Over the years I have met few Thais capable of critical thinking. The ones who were had travelled extensively abroad, or even studied overseas. Critical thinking is not favoured in the Thai educational system, the media, or in society. Most Thais don't care much about international news or events, with the exception, perhaps, of betting on English football scores. China, as is widely known, has/had the highest population in the world, so the TAT probably presumed that tour operators could potentially make the most money from Chinese tour groups, which actually turned out to be true in the 2010s. However, this is 2023, not 2019, and Chinese people's incomes, on average, are declining. Not to mention, that more and more Chinese travellers want to travel individually these days, preferring to discover other destinations, rather than being herded around Koh Larn, or Walking Street...

[BigStar]

On 12/16/2023 at 2:42 PM, kentrot said:

When is this News Outlet going to admit that TOURISM is only  12-15% of the GDP ?

 

Can we PLEASE get some news about the general state of the economy  and the other 85% of the GDP

or is that asking too much ?

 

Yes, asking too much. Where's the fun? The general state is just that, too general. Our members want to bash Chinese, Russians and Indians. We want to deny that domestic Thai tourism exists, 'cause Thais have no money. And we want to sneer at TAT, our fave target, unless TAT makes a negative prediction.

 

Finally, we all want to "fix" Thai tourism, 'cause we know all about it. We never get tired of repeating the same things about all the dangers, the bad driving, the horrible mistreatment of tourists, the ripoffs, the pollution, the xenophobia, etc.

 

A TOURISM topic is guaranteed to get lots of page views. Understand the business model of the site.

 

[vangrop]

On 12/16/2023 at 8:42 AM, kentrot said:

When is this News Outlet going to admit that TOURISM is only  12-15% of the GDP ?

 

Can we PLEASE get some news about the general state of the economy  and the other 85% of the GDP

or is that asking too much ?

 

For many of your readers, we are full time residents.

We don't need  heavy rotation of  "tourist" stories !

 

There - I vented and feel slightly better

until the next "tourist in trouble" story pops up

Well mister most farangs are tourists and not full time residents. If you do not like our tourist stories well concentrate you on sewer problem in your soi or the frequency of collection of your household waste 

[Mike Lister]

13 hours ago, Cabradelmar said:

 

The NESDB, Thailand's official economic planning agency, uses a sector-based classification system. As of 2023, the major breakdown is:

• Service Sector: 56.18% (including wholesale & retail, tourism, finance, real estate, etc.)
• Industrial Sector: 34.99% (manufacturing, construction, utilities)
• Agricultural Sector: 8.82% (farming, fishing, forestry)

No matter how you cut it, tourism (as a % of total GDP) is a big number and represents a certain level of industry concentration risk: 18% per Nikkei Asia reports. Only manufacturing at 20% is larger - with low profit margin sub-sectors textile & garments, and food processing representing half of that number. The believe it or not, the Thai government aims for the tourism sector to contribute 30% of GDP by 2030. Which seems incredibly rosey/optimistic, not to mention furthering the existing industry concentration risk. When you uncover the details details, Thailand's economy is, at best, while large, sluggish. The only real bright spots are electronics and automotive, but that's < 8% of total GDP.

 

Thailand's economy is driven by three things, Customs Exports, International Tourism and Consumer Spending or Domestic Consumption. Customs Exports and International Tourism are both Exports that are equal to 58% of GDP whereas International Tourism by itself is equal to only 12% of GDP which I don't view as being a big number. Domestic Consumption is increasingly dependent on Tourism, both International and Domestic which combined are equal to about 20% of GDP. It is not too far fetched to think Thailand might increase tourism to equal 25% of GDP but 30% seems unrealistic. Thailand's economy has always been based on goods exports, this is the area that needs to increase but to do that requires large scale capital investment and a relaxation of foreign competition rules in country. Those things will improve Consumer Spending and improve quality, International Tourism is merely a short cut to improving Consumer Spending, the problem is, the volume of tourist arrivals is not driven by Thailand nor is it under their control.

[paulikens]

tomorrow's story....tourism booming with chinese tourists hotels fully booked for xmas and new year. 

[Blumpie]

The lesson here is candy rots your brain.

For the love of god and all things holy, the last two years have been nothing but numbers of how it's going to explode and everyone saw that it wasn't.  

And for those brain rotted people who gobbled up those news stories they already forgot how foolish they were.  

When you forget it never happened and you've saved face.  

[Gknrd]

My only safety concern in Thailand was the word NO.  Hardest thing I ever had to learn. As soon as most land in Thailand the word NO disappears from your vocabulary..    And the most costly mistake tourists and expats will ever make is the word NO in Thailand.

[Cabradelmar]

On 12/18/2023 at 6:46 AM, Mike Lister said:

 

Thailand's economy is driven by three things, Customs Exports, International Tourism and Consumer Spending or Domestic Consumption. Customs Exports and International Tourism are both Exports that are equal to 58% of GDP whereas International Tourism by itself is equal to only 12% of GDP which I don't view as being a big number. Domestic Consumption is increasingly dependent on Tourism, both International and Domestic which combined are equal to about 20% of GDP. It is not too far fetched to think Thailand might increase tourism to equal 25% of GDP but 30% seems unrealistic. Thailand's economy has always been based on goods exports, this is the area that needs to increase but to do that requires large scale capital investment and a relaxation of foreign competition rules in country. Those things will improve Consumer Spending and improve quality, International Tourism is merely a short cut to improving Consumer Spending, the problem is, the volume of tourist arrivals is not driven by Thailand nor is it under their control.

 

We're on different wavelengths... yours being expenditure-categories focused vs. my industry sub-sector focus. Sure, looking at expenditure categories, tourist spending today looks to account for 12% of GDP. However, to understand the challenges and risk within the industry (and the broader economy), you need to look at the industry level, including emerging trends. We do agree on two things: tourism as 30% of GDP is unrealistic (and by extension, foolish), and arrivals are out of Thailand's control. Variability in arrivals is just one of many risk associated with tourism... jobs created by tourism are slow coming and lower paying, external shocks (e.g., war, socio-economic conditions in other countries) on arrivals, seasonality, and the impact of over-tourism are all significant risk. All of which are going to make it harder to stimulate sustainable consumer spending through tourism. However, investing in diverse higher-paying growth industries would strengthen the Thai economy in real and sustainable ways, and provide more stable consumer spending. But to do that, Thailand is going to need to fix their educational/vocational training systems (IMO).