Is this the future for EV cars?

[JBChiangRai]

8 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

That's not what someone else posted. Perhaps you could post accurate information on sales, then.

My post is relevant in terms of how long it will take for EV's to replace ICE's. Show me where my facts and math are wrong on that point.

 

You're right, someone did post that EV sales are falling in the US and the UK without offering any data.

 

I corrected him with official data from both countries.

 

3 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Relevance? That model is projected to be GBP 100,000, or 4.4 million baht. How many people can afford that?

 

Three of the posters in this & other EV threads have bought new Porsche's at a lot more than that.  Two of them were EV's, I don't know about the third. 

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, HighPriority said:

What ?

The incredible phenomenon of too many mines starting production ?

You’re obviously a city boy, never seen a farmer introduce a new crop ?

If it works, all his neighbors plant the same crop the following year and no one makes any money because the market hasn’t grown to match the production.

This city boy worked for 6 years in Port Hedland for Goldsworthy Mining. It was a small mine compared to Hamersley and Mt. Newman; however, also the most profitable because its' operating costs were lower.

I've also seen a farmer plant canola on marginal land, and make a good profit. When his neighbors tried to imitate him the next year, their crops failed.

[Lacessit]

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

You're right, someone did post that EV sales are falling in the US and the UK without offering any data.

 

I corrected him with official data from both countries.

 

 

Three of the posters in this & other EV threads have bought new Porsche's at a lot more than that.  Two of them were EV's, I don't know about the third. 

It's suspected a Porsche EV was the originating fire aboard the Fremantle Highway, perhaps there's some buyer's remorse out there.

No one seems to be stepping up to correct my math on how long it will take to replace ICE's.

Edited January 11 by Lacessit

[HighPriority]

3 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

This city boy worked for 6 years in Port Hedland for Goldsworthy Mining. It was a small mine compared to Hamersley and Mt. Newman; however, also the most profitable because its' operating costs were lower.

I've also seen a farmer plant canola on marginal land, and make a good profit. When his neighbors tried to imitate him the next year, their crops failed.

Good.

so we now agree that supply, demand, skills and costs all contribute to the economy.

As to our farmer, crops fail for various reasons, many irrespective of the farmers skill set.

[JBChiangRai]

2 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

It's suspected a Porsche EV was the originating fire aboard the Fremantle Highway, perhaps there's some buyer's remorse out there.

No one seems to be stepping up to correct my math on how long it will take to replace ICE's.

 

More fluffy whataboutism

 

 

[KhunLA]

28 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Actually, that observation has me wondering why EV sales are falling. Perhaps you could explain the phenomenon.

Record sales in USA ... "an increase of 50.7% year-over-year."

 

Record sales Globally ... "rose 20% versus a year ago"

 

Please stick to the facts

Edited January 11 by KhunLA

[Lacessit]

7 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

More fluffy whataboutism

 

 

 

An ICE fire burns at 700 C, and can be extinguished. An EV fire burns at 2000 C, and can't be extinguished.

IIRC, Occam's razor is the antithesis of whataboutism.

[retarius]

On 12/31/2023 at 5:18 PM, Lacessit said:

One sees people popping up on social media, talking about out-of-warranty EV's, where they are stuck with a battery replacement cost of 60-70% of the new vehicle cost. Their car insurance won't cover it either.

Admittedly it can't be all that frequent, but it must give secondhand EV buyers something to think about.

Contrast that with an ICE, where a reconditioned engine is 20-30K baht, if it is blown.

Buy one second hand? You must be joking. Not unless the seller replaced the battery prior to sale and I had 8 years warranty.

No I doubt there will be too many second hand buyers until the batteries are demonstrated to last the period that the lying manufacturers claim. I'm sick of manufacturers' claims, having been robbed on ''up to' claims on internet speeds and 'as low as' claims for cheap flights. 

[Lacessit]

12 minutes ago, retarius said:

Buy one second hand? You must be joking. Not unless the seller replaced the battery prior to sale and I had 8 years warranty.

No I doubt there will be too many second hand buyers until the batteries are demonstrated to last the period that the lying manufacturers claim. I'm sick of manufacturers' claims, having been robbed on ''up to' claims on internet speeds and 'as low as' claims for cheap flights. 

KhunLA claims his battery will be good for 900,000 km, perhaps you should buy his.

[KhunLA]

5 minutes ago, retarius said:

0I'm sick of manufacturers' claims, having been robbed on ''up to' claims on internet speeds and 'as low as' claims for cheap flights. 

Seriously ... at our age, we should have learned by now the difference between marketing & independent research.

 

Product research is our responsibility.  Especially when spending for high ticket items; cars, and trust no salesperson.  Need to read the extreme positives and negatives.  The truth is usually somewhere in between.  

[retarius]

8 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Seriously ... at our age, we should have learned by now the difference between marketing & independent research.

 

Product research is our responsibility.  Especially when spending for high ticket items; cars, and trust no salesperson.  Need to read the extreme positives and negatives.  The truth is usually somewhere in between.  

Exactly, I want EVs to be on the market for 15 years or so, so that I can verify independently the manufacturers' claims about battery life. It is called wisdom. I think your enthusiasm for EVs has slightly blinded you to their defects. I'm sure you made a wise choice (for you) in purchasing one....equally I think I am making a wise choice (for me) in waiting for proof of their divine goodness before I buy. 

[HighPriority]

30 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

 

An ICE fire burns at 700 C, and can be extinguished. An EV fire burns at 2000 C, and can't be extinguished.

IIRC, Occam's razor is the antithesis of whataboutism.

Groundhog Day again...?

 

You enjoy telling yourself and your mates how perfect your ice are and how evil ev are.

Ive had enough.

 

[KhunLA]

23 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

KhunLA claims his battery will be good for 900,000 km, perhaps you should buy his.

I don't claim it, the research does.  That's actually a negative number by some folks.  That research stated 2500 cycles.

 

Other research states 2000-10,000 cycles.   I usually stick with negative numbers, as more realistic, and less disappointment.  If wrong, then it's a very nice bonus.  900k kms, should last us our lifetime, IF, the rest of the car last.

 

We'll (wife) probably won't put near 500k kms on it.   If I live 10 more years, doubtful, we probably won't even hit 200k kms.  After I crap out, she'll put less than 10k kms a year on it.  She's better than me for following the maintenance schedule on cars, so it will be well maintained.

 

I'm the driving force of our O&As, which last year was half of our kms (10k of 20k kms).  I'm actually winding down myself on O&As.  Don't think we'll put on 20k this year.  She's 47, so if I crap out in 10 yrs, she'll be 57, and if she lives to 80, that's only another 230k kms, on top of 200k at most, while I'm alive.   Far below 500k, and way below the low expectation of 900k kms.

Edited January 11 by KhunLA

[KhunLA]

3 minutes ago, retarius said:

Exactly, I want EVs to be on the market for 15 years or so, so that I can verify independently the manufacturers' claims about battery life. It is called wisdom. I think your enthusiasm for EVs has slightly blinded you to their defects. I'm sure you made a wise choice (for you) in purchasing one....equally I think I am making a wise choice (for me) in waiting for proof of their divine goodness before I buy. 

Well lucky you, they have been ... so no time like the present. 

 

Depends on your age, what your driving now, your finances, life expectancy.  How long do you keep cars, only 2 or 3 yrs, or over 5 yrs.  Driving habits, patience level when O&A, along time management.   Lots of factors.

 

EVs not for everyone.  Perfect for our lifestyle, maybe not for yours.

[retarius]

3 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I don't claim it, the research does.  That's actually a negative number by some folks.  That research stated 2500 cycles.

 

Other research states 2000-10,000 cycles.   I usually stick with negative numbers, as more realistic, and less disappointment.  If wrong, then it's a very nice bonus.  900k kms, should last us our lifetime, IF, the rest of the car last.

 

We'll (wife) probably won't put near 500k kms on it.   If I live 10 more years, doubtful, we probably won't even hit 200k kms.  After I crap out, she'll put less than 10k kms a year on it.  She's better than me for following the maintenance schedule on cars, so it will be well maintained.

 

I'm the driving force of our O&As, which last year was half of our kms (10k of 20k kms).  I'm actually winding down myself on O&As.  Don't think we'll put on 20k this year.  She's 47, so if I crap out in 10 yrs, she'll be 57, and if she lives to 80, that's only another 230k kms, on top of 200k at most, while I'm alive.   Far below 500k, and way below the low expectation of 900k kms.

I'm sure when I buy my EV, current tech will be superceeded by much better batteries, that will do 1 million kms or 5 million as the manufacturers will claim. Personally I have zero desire to keep a vehicle for even 500,000. 160,000 kms is about the limit for me.

[retarius]

1 minute ago, KhunLA said:

Well lucky you, they have been ... so no time like the present. 

 

Depends on your age, what your driving now, your finances, life expectancy.  How long do you keep cars, only 2 or 3 yrs, or over 5 yrs.  Driving habits, patience level when O&A, along time management.   Lots of factors.

 

EVs not for everyone.  Perfect for our lifestyle, maybe not for yours.

100% agree.

[JBChiangRai]

This thread is like swimming through molasses

[Lacessit]

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

This thread is like swimming through molasses

There's a lot of dilatant syrup being created by EV owners. I'm trying to add a bit of thixotropy.

[Lacessit]

22 minutes ago, HighPriority said:

Groundhog Day again...?

 

You enjoy telling yourself and your mates how perfect your ice are and how evil ev are.

Ive had enough.

 

Good, I'm tired of being slagged off by people who can't see both sides of an equation.

[KhunLA]

19 minutes ago, retarius said:

Personally I have zero desire to keep a vehicle for even 500,000. 160,000 kms is about the limit for me.

Same for me.

 

In the past, cars owned, that was about my limit.  Back in the USA, don't think I ever had a vehicle with 100k miles on it.   Usually because I killed it, or it was a POS when I bought.

 

Here/TH, I've had 4 new ICEVs, and sold 3 around the 125-150k mark, as warranty was expired, and I like to sell before the next timing belt or brakes/tires need replacing.   Save a few baht, and still has decent resale value.  Seem 7+ years here, and values drop quick, something to do with mechanical inspections needed for registration, though not really a big issue.

 

4th ICEV (2020 ZS) we sold at 40k kms, as upgraded to the EV version.  Actually didn't take too bad of a hit on resale price, surprisingly.  Our 5th, present and hopefully last car, is our MG ZS EV (2022).

 

Was really hard not passing up the 240k baht govt incentive, along with having solar at the new house, contracted the same time we bought the ICE version of the ZS.   So at the time, an EV wasn't in the game plan.  Then come the govt incentive, and a nice ZS EV upgrade in 2022.

Edited January 11 by KhunLA

[Rimmer]

A personal attack has been removed

[Lacessit]

49 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Same for me.

 

 

 

Here/TH, I've had 4 new ICEVs, and sold 3 around the 125-150k mark, as warranty was expired, and I like to sell before the next timing belt or brakes/tires need replacing.   Save a few baht, and still has decent resale value.  Seem 7+ years here, and values drop quick, something to do with mechanical inspections needed for registration, though not really a big issue.

 

4th ICEV (2020 ZS) we sold at 40k kms, as upgraded to the EV version.  Actually didn't take too bad of a hit on resale price, surprisingly.  Our 5th, present and hopefully last car, is our MG ZS EV (2022).

 

 

After 7 years, all vehicles are required to have an annual mechanical inspection, which costs 200 baht. My Vios passes easily every year.

Part of the air pollution problems of Thailand is the fact those inspections are obviously open to corruption. I have seen guys getting registration stickers for vehicles which clearly belonged in a wreckers yard.

3 new ICEV's selling at 125-150k IMO is not financially sensible. Either buy a new car, and run it into the ground, or ( more sensibly ) buy secondhand with low kilometres on the odometer.

 

[KhunLA]

6 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

3 new ICEV's selling at 125-150k IMO is not financially sensible. Either buy a new car, and run it into the ground, or ( more sensibly ) buy secondhand with low kilometres on the odometer.

Agree sort of, as days past, when my finances weren't as healthy, I bought what I could afford, and kept it till it died, or I killed it.

 

Now, as of 2020, simply buy what I want, when I won't, since having very healthy finances, and can't take it with me.  Prior to 2020, I spent as little as possible, on depreciating products, especially in TH, as TBH, wasn't always sure I was going to stay here.

 

Deciding this will be my final resting place, I spend for my comfort & smile, and just don't care about anything else.   Why we built the 3rd house, and stopped buying entry level POS sedans.  Just after we liquidated all assets, and thought about .... what next. 

 

 

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, KhunLA said:

Agree sort of, as days past, when my finances weren't as healthy, I bought what I could afford, and kept it till it died, or I killed it.

 

Now, as of 2020, simply buy what I want, when I won't, since having very healthy finances, and can't take it with me.  Prior to 2020, I spent as little as possible, on depreciating products, especially in TH, as TBH, wasn't always sure I was going to stay here.

 

Deciding this will be my final resting place, I spend for my comfort & smile, and just don't care about anything else.   Why we built the 3rd house, and stopped buying entry level POS sedans.  Just after we liquidated all assets, and thought about .... what next. 

 

 

If you can afford it, why not?

The Scots genes in me shy away from spending money unnecessarily, if what I have is functioning perfectly well.

Having said that, a couple of my worst investments have been in women.

[KhunLA]

52 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Having said that, a couple of my worst investments have been in women.

Most products, I'll be thrifty, best product/value, for best price.   Then the smile factor comes into it, and sometimes, you just don't care, as long as you get your smiles.

 

I'll get from family & friends ... "man, that was good price" ... to ... "what are you nuts ?" 

[Lacessit]

2 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Most products, I'll be thrifty, best product/value, for best price.   Then the smile factor comes into it, and sometimes, you just don't care, as long as you get your smiles.

 

I'll get from family & friends ... "man, that was good price" ... to ... "what are you nuts ?" 

Did you get both reactions when you bought an EV?

[KhunLA]

22 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Did you get both reactions when you bought an EV?

Yea, pretty much, although once they realized how inexpensive the car & solar was here, think they were a bit envious, they couldn't do the same.  USA prices for both are a bit silly.  You can't get a decent BEV in states for <$30k, and solar, at least 3X as much in the Philly, PA area.  THB at a high in Oct 2022, so the ZS was <$26k USD.

Edited January 11 by KhunLA

[Bandersnatch]

15 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Do you have a problem with basic math?

 

 

You’re the one who thinks that this graph shows demand for Li wildly exceeding supply

 

 

 

 

[Bandersnatch]

5 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Actually, that observation has me wondering why EV sales are falling. Perhaps you could explain the phenomenon.

 

As always no citations, so no facts just badly informed opinions. 

 

Global electric car sales rose 31% in 2023

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/global-electric-car-sales-rose-31-2023-rho-motion-2024-01-11/

 

Phenomenon explained

 

 

[Lacessit]

35 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

 

You’re the one who thinks that this graph shows demand for Li wildly exceeding supply

 

 

 

 

Show me any post where I disagreed with the price fluctuations shown in that graph.

The math I am talking about is the calculation of how long it will take for EV's to replace ICE's in the marketplace. No one so far has tried to refute said math.

Your post is an attempt at deflection.