Thailand’s manufacturing production sees steep fall due to car output drop

[snoop1130]

 

The Industry Ministry reported a year-on-year fall of 6.27% in Thailand’s manufacturing production index for December, attributed to a downturn in car production. This figure was notably steeper than the anticipated 3.2% decrease, according to a Reuters poll. This followed the 4.71% drop in November, rounding out a year in which overall output shrank by 5.11%.

 

In addition to the decline in automotive manufacturing, December’s fall in output was precipitated by a combination of high household debt, increased borrowing costs, and downgraded economic growth. By the conclusion of the third quarter of last year, household debt in Thailand had reached 90% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

 

Warawan Chitaroon, the head of the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE), cautioned about the state of the economy in January.

 

“There are more cautious signs in January, mostly economic concerns.”

 

By Alex Morgan

Caption: Picture courtesy of Bangkok Post

 

Full story: The Thaiger 2024-01-31

 

- Cigna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

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[spidermike007]

This is a continuation of the effects of the "Prayuth  Decimation". 9 years of sorry army leadership combined with draconian, highly selective restrictions due to covid, led to extreme economic devastation for millions of people, and perhaps hundreds of thousands of businesses lost.

 

I said it at the time and I'll say it again now, it's going to take years to recover from that sabotage. 

[hotchilli]

I'm sure Thailand is sliding into a recession, but you'll never get them to admit it.

Falling output in industry, cheap imports from China, lower than expected tourism.

2024 was going to be the boom year with the new government, seems more like going bust.

Edited January 31 by hotchilli

[RichardColeman]

 

 

You would think the ongoing awful and pathetic Thai driving would keep the thai car production at a constant high 

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

This is a continuation of the effects of the "Prayuth  Decimation". 9 years of sorry army leadership combined with draconian, highly selective restrictions due to covid, led to extreme economic devastation for millions of people, and perhaps hundreds of thousands of businesses lost.

 

I said it at the time and I'll say it again now, it's going to take years to recover from that sabotage. 

Every country's citizens will blame their leaders for economic downturns. We are at the beginning of a worldwide synchronized recession, it doesn't matter where you live, China, USA, or Europe, economic pain is everywhere. In the US many small banks are basically insolvent. With people maxing out their credit cards just for basics and so the malls have gone to the model 'buy now pay later' from the 60's era.

Recessions due to wars and huge national debts are things we have had before but not in a worldwide synchronized way, there was always an 'engine' of stability somewhere which helped pull everyone out but not now. The great recession in the '30's comes close to our coming situation and indeed correlating economic graphs of today show a similarity of what happened then, especially the huge climbs in the stock market (miles apart from the real economy) just before the great crash.

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

I'm sure Thailand is sliding into a recession, but you'll never get them to admit it.

Falling output in industry, cheap imports from China, lower than expected tourism.

2024 was going to be the boom year with the new government, seems more like going bust.

I can't make my mind up wrt tourism. Listen to TAT and it is up and up and off into the stratosphere.....

[superal]

1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

Every country's citizens will blame their leaders for economic downturns. We are at the beginning of a worldwide synchronized recession, it doesn't matter where you live, China, USA, or Europe, economic pain is everywhere. In the US many small banks are basically insolvent. With people maxing out their credit cards just for basics and so the malls have gone to the model 'buy now pay later' from the 60's era.

Recessions due to wars and huge national debts are things we have had before but not in a worldwide synchronized way, there was always an 'engine' of stability somewhere which helped pull everyone out but not now. The great recession in the '30's comes close to our coming situation and indeed correlating economic graphs of today show a similarity of what happened then, especially the huge climbs in the stock market (miles apart from the real economy) just before the great crash.

Totally agree . None more so than the Labour leader Keir Starmer at yesterdays Prime Ministers Questions . Labour are showering abuse on the Tory gov; at every opportunity but do not have any proper alternative solutions or plans . They are trying anything to get in power and I dread to think of the outcome if they succeed . World economies , including the E.U. , China $ Germany are struggling . No doubt that the Thai economy will struggle too .

[Eric Loh]

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This is a continuation of the effects of the "Prayuth  Decimation". 9 years of sorry army leadership combined with draconian, highly selective restrictions due to covid, led to extreme economic devastation for millions of people, and perhaps hundreds of thousands of businesses lost.

 

I said it at the time and I'll say it again now, it's going to take years to recover from that sabotage. 

After a decade of insipid and incompetent military government, the fiscal position has weakened badly. The junta government had record budget deficits in relation to GDP and continous account deficits. In 2021, Thailand had a blow-out budget deficit of 7.03%. They are spending more than the country revenues.  The country coffers are empty. The present government will have little room to initiate stimulus policies and have to tread carefully not to worsen the debt situation.

[soalbundy]

47 minutes ago, superal said:

Totally agree . None more so than the Labour leader Keir Starmer at yesterdays Prime Ministers Questions . Labour are showering abuse on the Tory gov; at every opportunity but do not have any proper alternative solutions or plans . They are trying anything to get in power and I dread to think of the outcome if they succeed . World economies , including the E.U. , China $ Germany are struggling . No doubt that the Thai economy will struggle too .

Well the Tories have made a mess of things already, Labour won't make any difference because there are no alternatives, getting back in the EU could help with import prices of food and give us back the clout of a European block instead of that of an impoverished island in the North sea.

50% unemployment in China due to the withdrawal of Western companies and a failing Russia which desperately needs western technology are (in my opinion) the main causes of the impending recession. Germany is the main engine of Europe, the lack of cheap energy from Russia is the cause of its recession now which will affect all European nations which includes the UK.

China was the worlds factory and a huge market for the west, all gone now. Nothing lasts forever however, we are all dependent on one another, market forces will bring back equilibrium once politics gets out of the way, Russian gas will flow again and companies will eventually return to China but the dead wood of debt must be burnt out of the system first which means pain for all of us, perhaps for a decade but hopefully shorter, a lot will depend on the political structures in China, Russia and the US, Xi, Putin and Trump are the biggest dangers for the world.

[superal]

5 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Well the Tories have made a mess of things already, Labour won't make any difference because there are no alternatives, getting back in the EU could help with import prices of food and give us back the clout of a European block instead of that of an impoverished island in the North sea.

50% unemployment in China due to the withdrawal of Western companies and a failing Russia which desperately needs western technology are (in my opinion) the main causes of the impending recession. Germany is the main engine of Europe, the lack of cheap energy from Russia is the cause of its recession now which will affect all European nations which includes the UK.

China was the worlds factory and a huge market for the west, all gone now. Nothing lasts forever however, we are all dependent on one another, market forces will bring back equilibrium once politics gets out of the way, Russian gas will flow again and companies will eventually return to China but the dead wood of debt must be burnt out of the system first which means pain for all of us, perhaps for a decade but hopefully shorter, a lot will depend on the political structures in China, Russia and the US, Xi, Putin and Trump are the biggest dangers for the world.

Fact , the UK , since Brexit , has tripled its trading with E.U. countries . In comparison with all European countries , China & the U.S.A. the UK is second only to Spain & the mighty U.S.A.  Spain had only one way to go and that was up . 

The Thai economy will suffer because of the decline in foreign exports and small order books .  The Thai tourist industry will no doubt suffer because of the cost of living around  the world , global disposable income and the now expensive long haul flights to Thailand . However the Thai Baht remains fairly strong but how much longer can the Baht be supported by Thai foreign assets / reserves ? 

[Keep Right]

5 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Well the Tories have made a mess of things already, Labour won't make any difference because there are no alternatives, getting back in the EU could help with import prices of food and give us back the clout of a European block instead of that of an impoverished island in the North sea.

50% unemployment in China due to the withdrawal of Western companies and a failing Russia which desperately needs western technology are (in my opinion) the main causes of the impending recession. Germany is the main engine of Europe, the lack of cheap energy from Russia is the cause of its recession now which will affect all European nations which includes the UK.

China was the worlds factory and a huge market for the west, all gone now. Nothing lasts forever however, we are all dependent on one another, market forces will bring back equilibrium once politics gets out of the way, Russian gas will flow again and companies will eventually return to China but the dead wood of debt must be burnt out of the system first which means pain for all of us, perhaps for a decade but hopefully shorter, a lot will depend on the political structures in China, Russia and the US, Xi, Putin and Trump are the biggest dangers for the world.

I just cannot believe that there are some British people that want to give up their nations sovereignty and get back into the globalist EU.

[soalbundy]

11 minutes ago, Keep Right said:

I just cannot believe that there are some British people that want to give up their nations sovereignty and get back into the globalist EU.

You personally have no sovereignty over anything, not even your house, it's owned by the bank, whether you still have a job tomorrow is decided by your employers. The laws (over which you have no direct or even indirect control) in the UK are basically the same in every European country so what sovereignty are you talking about....apart from your little voting slip but governments are really ruled by the markets and international events, what you want doesn't really count (would you like an end to homelessness, unemployment, war, high interest rates, income inequality, a failing NHS, long waiting times for an OP, Charles and Kate have no problems there, having to choose between heating and eating). Blocks exist world wide because there is safety in numbers and it is financially viable because size projects outward power and influence, it opens up markets and travel, the lack of which the UK is experiencing now. The UK isn't special, it's not even a nice place to live, how's your frozen pension doing? The EU doesn't do that to its pensioners, they look after their people.....Oh and 'Rule Brittania' died a long long time ago.

[Phil1964]

31 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

You personally have no sovereignty over anything, not even your house, it's owned by the bank, whether you still have a job tomorrow is decided by your employers. The laws (over which you have no direct or even indirect control) in the UK are basically the same in every European country so what sovereignty are you talking about....apart from your little voting slip but governments are really ruled by the markets and international events, what you want doesn't really count (would you like an end to homelessness, unemployment, war, high interest rates, income inequality, a failing NHS, long waiting times for an OP, Charles and Kate have no problems there, having to choose between heating and eating). Blocks exist world wide because there is safety in numbers and it is financially viable because size projects outward power and influence, it opens up markets and travel, the lack of which the UK is experiencing now. The UK isn't special, it's not even a nice place to live, how's your frozen pension doing? The EU doesn't do that to its pensioners, they look after their people.....Oh and 'Rule Brittania' died a long long time ago.

Black Rock, Vanguard, Goldman Sachs and the other large international money players run governments and countries. They ultimately control everything, not puppets in government. 

[spidermike007]

19 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

After a decade of insipid and incompetent military government, the fiscal position has weakened badly. The junta government had record budget deficits in relation to GDP and continous account deficits. In 2021, Thailand had a blow-out budget deficit of 7.03%. They are spending more than the country revenues.  The country coffers are empty. The present government will have little room to initiate stimulus policies and have to tread carefully not to worsen the debt situation.

A very accurate analysis, and this is what tends to happen when you appoint ministers that are the absolute bottom of the barrel in terms of experience, competence, intelligence, and vision.

 

And that defines Thai politics for the past decade. 

[daveAustin]

Hark at the remoaner element—folk can’t help themselves but drag brexit into this or that topic, one about the Thai economy even! 😴

 

Covid overreaction and Russian wars are the biggest killers to economies. UK NHS would have been in tatters regardless of brexit. The eu machine is broke and one of overregulation … good idea as a single market but has morphed into a bloated meddler of state affairs and a diluter of culture. Ask eu farmers how they’re fairing, ask a Swede about external decisions made on their behalf and the state of their once serene neighbourhoods. Most eu nationals with half a brain would ditch it to get their country back. 

[soi3eddie]

On 2/1/2024 at 12:11 AM, soalbundy said:

The great recession in the '30's comes close to our coming situation and indeed correlating economic graphs of today show a similarity of what happened then, especially the huge climbs in the stock market (miles apart from the real economy) just before the great crash.

 

Agreed. This is what I expect and what I'm afraid of. The stock markets and company shares just seem to keep marching higher. Pure speculation based on extreme P/E ratios whilst so many people are broke and indebted to the eyeballs. History repeats unfortunately. Markets crash and wars incoming. Thailand is probably the best place for many of us to be.

 

[soalbundy]

26 minutes ago, soi3eddie said:

 

Agreed. This is what I expect and what I'm afraid of. The stock markets and company shares just seem to keep marching higher. Pure speculation based on extreme P/E ratios whilst so many people are broke and indebted to the eyeballs. History repeats unfortunately. Markets crash and wars incoming. Thailand is probably the best place for many of us to be.

 

Yes for us Thailand seems to be an island of stability but we have to be aware of the fact that our incomes, state pensions and company pensions, rely on the economy, money doesn't float down from thin air, there is no economic safety just because you get a pension, remember when Argentina, for example, was so broke they stopped paying pensions. Worrying though is pointless, it is as it is, we all float on a sea of causality unable to set our own course, only the ego thinks it is master of its own destiny.

[retarius]

This is not a healthy sign. Although folk rant on about tourism and agriculture and whether Thailand is the top rice exporter, quietly the manufacturing sector employs only about 10% of employed persons, occupies over 50% of GDP, and is the main driver of GDP growth, or lack thereof. The outlook isn't good, and diversifying into other low wage paying sectors isn't going to help much. How many Chinese tourists does it take to make the same profit as an exported car?