Why release of Thaksin could be a tipping point for Thai politics

[webfact]

 

The expected release of convicted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra next week is set to inject more heat into the simmering powerplay between conservative elites and the ex-PM, analysts say.

 

The ex-premier is expected to be freed on bail even if he is hit with a fresh charge of lese majeste under Article 112 of the Criminal Code. The Office of the Attorney-General is considering whether to indict Thaksin for allegedly defaming the monarchy with comments he made in South Korea in November 2009.

 

However, this new case is unlikely to prevent Thaksin’s release on parole when his 180-day detention is up on February 18, even though he has spent all but a few hours of that period in the Police General Hospital, according to political observers.

 

His daughter Paetongtarn has reportedly said Thaksin will stay at his family mansion of Ban Chan Songla in Bangkok after being set free on parole. The 74-year-old will not be required to wear an electronic monitoring ankle bracelet given his advanced age (over 70) and severe health conditions, reports said.

 

Flashpoint for Thai politics?

 

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, says that freeing Thaksin on bail at a time when many young activists charged with lese majeste are being denied temporary release is likely to trigger allegations of judicial bias. And this could add more heat to the already simmering political dispute, he warned.

 

“This case could harm the justice system’s reputation. If Thaksin is granted bail, people will ask why the young suspects have not been released too. We will see political chaos again,” the analyst predicted.

 

By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk

 

Full story: Thai PBS 2024-02-14

 

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[Tropicalevo]

23 minutes ago, webfact said:

If Thaksin is granted bail, people will ask why the young suspects have not been released too. We will see political chaos again,” the analyst predicted.

Maybe because the young suspects are not older than 70 years old?

Just a thought.

[Dcheech]

Much ado & handwringing about nothing. I do not see why Thaksin is any different than the Leaders who did the bloody crackdowns in 92 - 76 - 73. They were all rehabilitated, obviously responsible for far greater misdeeds than the T Man. 

[motdaeng]

12 minutes ago, Dcheech said:

Much ado & handwringing about nothing. I do not see why Thaksin is any different than the Leaders who did the bloody crackdowns in 92 - 76 - 73. They were all rehabilitated, obviously responsible for far greater misdeeds than the T Man. 

 

i do agree with you on that, the army and thaksin shuld be treated the same; everyone should be held

accountable for their actions and punished in prison.

 

however, thaksin's party made a deal with the army, so now everyone gets away with it. thailand is once

again stuck in the same vicious cycle where the rich and powerful can act with impunity while ordinary

citizens face draconian penalties.

 

thailand's government and elite should be ashamed, but of yourse, they are so proud of themself because

they could do it agian and got away with it again!

[Dcheech]

2 minutes ago, motdaeng said:

however, thaksin's party made a deal with the army, so now everyone gets away with it.

 

And everyone was NOT getting away with it before?!

 

 

Edited February 14 by Dcheech

[OneMoreFarang]

555 Everybody in Thailand knows that the justice system works according to wealth and connections. That is just a fact.

I guess if the criminal shuts his mouth and plays with his grandchildren then not much will happen.

But if he is suddenly healthy again and opens his mouths too wide like previously, then I like to see what will happen.

[motdaeng]

could it be you prefer "status quo"?

 

if you like change and improve things, you have to start at one point or another!

thanks to thaksin and the army there will be no change in the near future...

 

that the thai army, corrupt and criminal politicians, like it the way it was and it is, we all got that.

but that so many foreigners are acting the same, that is hard to understand...

 

 

Edited February 14 by motdaeng
spelling

[Hunz Kittisak]

What tipping point?

He has the support of half of Thailand.

Even those who dun support him dun care two hoots about his release or incarceration for that matter. 

[BenStark]

7 minutes ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

What tipping point?

He has the support of half of Thailand.

Even those who dun support him dun care two hoots about his release or incarceration for that matter. 

 

No he doesn't have the support of half of Thailand. That was clear from the elections.

 

He has now more opponents than proponents, and many of those opponents claim he stole the election from them

[roquefort]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

“This case could harm the justice system’s reputation"

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The Office of the Attorney-General is considering whether to indict Thaksin for allegedly defaming the monarchy with comments he made in South Korea in November 2009.

Or let him off the hook again?

[klauskunkel]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

This case could harm the justice system’s reputation.

Not harm, reaffirm.

[thesetat]

Im confused how his age would have an impact on his being made to wear electronic monitoring? This man fled the country for many years. In any other country he would be considered a flight risk and be monitored daily. 

Seems another deal to discredit the justice system has been made for the T-man. Most Thai i know have already given up on seeing this man get some real jail time. 

[suestra29]

I assume with all of his life threatening illnesses he will remain in hospital. 😉

[mark131v]

11 hours ago, motdaeng said:

thanks to thaksin and the army there will be no change in the near future...

 

Bang on sir!

 

The old establishment and the generals and coup makers get to carry on as if nothing happened all because the convict at large got into bed with the junta

 

There was a fleeting moment when lasting changes could have happened but it relied on Thaksin doing the right thing and endorsing the electorate and MFP, he chose himself above all that and that fleeting moment has passed until God knows when.....

[khaowong1]

This case could harm the justice system’s reputation...   

[ravip]

12 hours ago, motdaeng said:

 

i do agree with you on that, the army and thaksin shuld be treated the same; everyone should be held

accountable for their actions and punished in prison.

 

however, thaksin's party made a deal with the army, so now everyone gets away with it. thailand is once

again stuck in the same vicious cycle where the rich and powerful can act with impunity while ordinary

citizens face draconian penalties.

 

thailand's government and elite should be ashamed, but of yourse, they are so proud of themself because

they could do it agian and got away with it again!

The " elite ", where on earth do they feel ashamed of their misdeeds?

[lordgrinz]

That ship has sailed, long....long..... long.... ago.

 

Quote

This case could harm the justice system’s reputation.

 

[lordgrinz]

35 minutes ago, mark131v said:

 

Bang on sir!

 

The old establishment and the generals and coup makers get to carry on as if nothing happened all because the convict at large got into bed with the junta

 

There was a fleeting moment when lasting changes could have happened but it relied on Thaksin doing the right thing and endorsing the electorate and MFP, he chose himself above all that and that fleeting moment has passed until God knows when.....

 

It will take decades for this to be fixed, long after all the dinosaurs are dead and in the ground. 

[zhounan]

I think he will die within some months.

[mark131v]

12 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

 

It will take decades for this to be fixed, long after all the dinosaurs are dead and in the ground. 

 

I fear you're right but I think unless it is removed root and branch another lot of dinosaurs will simply take the place of this lot

 

The people lauding Thaksin are the ones that confuse me his actions and betrayal of the electorate is breathtaking yet some outwardly intelligent people seem completely blind to it

 

It's as if they think Thaksin is against the junta his actions say he isn't and by not being man enough to stand against it he actively condones them

 

I can't see any changes to the status quo anytime soon as the hi-so of all colours have shown themselves to be thick as thieves and the Thai people have been shafted yet again by the overlords 

[scorecard]

21 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

555 Everybody in Thailand knows that the justice system works according to wealth and connections. That is just a fact.

I guess if the criminal shuts his mouth and plays with his grandchildren then not much will happen.

But if he is suddenly healthy again and opens his mouths too wide like previously, then I like to see what will happen.

 

Nice points, however the way I see it is fairly quickly a lot of political / party chaos and re-organizing and quickly the paymaster back in the PM chair. 

[OneMoreFarang]

3 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 

Nice points, however the way I see it is fairly quickly a lot of political / party chaos and re-organizing and quickly the paymaster back in the PM chair. 

I think he can't be officially PM anymore. But he can still control the party. 

[bokningar]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

“This case could harm the justice system’s reputation.

Yes, it has such a great reputation, don't harm it

[scorecard]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I think he can't be officially PM anymore. But he can still control the party. 

Well if the law can be 'adjusted' to allow a Thai drug runner who did 8 years in an Aussie jail to become a Thai minister then probably not difficult to adjust the law so that the paymaster can again be the PM.

 

And there's plenty of his scaly unethical cronies who will attempt it. 

[john donson]

money talks and <deleted> walks....   he is walking

[zzaa09]

On 2/13/2024 at 6:08 PM, Dcheech said:

Much ado & handwringing about nothing. I do not see why Thaksin is any different than the Leaders who did the bloody crackdowns in 92 - 76 - 73. They were all rehabilitated, obviously responsible for far greater misdeeds than the T Man. 

Whataboutisms and comparative analysis usually have little impact on contemporary Thai historic platforms.

Few, if any, recall all those post events or the even more recent Shinawatra eras. 

 

Imagine what might be if the good Thais [or even interested outsiders] were knowledgeable enough to realize that there's never been any such true reforms/changes of the last several decades......and the propped up theatre has continued on the same up to present day. Same stage, different players. 

[stoner]

On 2/14/2024 at 8:18 AM, webfact said:

This case could harm the justice system’s reputation.

 

what reputation might that be ? these people never cease to amaze me with their arrogant rhetoric.