Big layoffs ahead in the automotive workshop sector - hold on to your hats!

[JBChiangRai]

2 minutes ago, Ralf001 said:

 

Cost of the EV battery includes manufacture and destruction ?

 

Ask me in 20 years, I "may" need to replace it then, but I doubt it.

[Korat Kiwi]

Toyota was No1 in NZ for pickup truck for years.  Partially because the competition was so weak bordering on non existent. 

 

However Toyota appeared to test on their laurels and never upgraded what was bound for the NZ market. 

 

Along came Ford a few years ago with their new beaut Ranger.  Farmers switched overnight to this new and comfortable pickup truck (Called a ute in NZ and Oz). 

 

Toyota has since updated what is being sent to NZ,  they are still doing very well with their car fleet but it will take some time to regain their foothold on utes. 

 

 

[john donson]

i don't have a car here in TH to avoid those headaches and costs

[JBChiangRai]

17 hours ago, vinny41 said:

 

UK electric share of the market is 2.1%

https://uk.motor1.com/news/710991/car-numbers-european-roads-by-country/

 

I am assuming that report means cars on the road as it quotes Norway with 20% whereas 90% of new cars sold in Norway are BEV's

 

15 hours ago, Ralf001 said:

 

Cost of the EV battery includes manufacture and destruction ?

 

I think you mean recycling rather than destruction, Lithium is a rare earth and requires a lot of expensive processing to extract it from the dirt, whereas it exists in vast proportions in a battery, so you would obviously recycle it.  The problem is, with the exception of air-cooled batteries, we are still decades away from needing to replace EV's batteries.

[Gweiloman]

20 hours ago, Madgee said:

You keep harping on about 'Most of your charging is done at home overnight' ...... My neighbour desperately wants an EV (stupid man) mainly because he thinks they are fashionable but cannot charge it at home as his car would be parked on the road away from his house. How about those living in condo blocks with very few chargers or even not allowed in the car parks?   
Respectfully, you use this point over and over again, that's your situation so sometimes start seeing it from another perspective. I'm not doubting the (at present) attractiveness of owning an EV for some but an EV certainly is not suitable for me and many others. 

It has been mentioned numerous times on various threads that if one doesn’t have access to home charging, owning an EV can be challenging. Having said that, it’s still very doable for the average motorist who mainly uses his car for the daily work commute. Go to a DC charging station once a week, plug it in for 30-40 mins and do any of the following:

- watch Netflix or HBO GO or YT on the big infotainment screen

- get something to eat

- get a massage

- go shopping 

- take a walk

- walk the dog

- play on the phone

- call a friend or a relative

- catch up on emails

- read a book 

 

There are countless things to do while waiting for the car to charge, gloating in the fact that you are saving yourself lots of money compared to driving an ICEV. Your neighbour may not be as stupid as …

[vinny41]

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

I am assuming that report means cars on the road as it quotes Norway with 20% whereas 90% of new cars sold in Norway are BEV's

 

 

I think you mean recycling rather than destruction, Lithium is a rare earth and requires a lot of expensive processing to extract it from the dirt, whereas it exists in vast proportions in a battery, so you would obviously recycle it.  The problem is, with the exception of air-cooled batteries, we are still decades away from needing to replace EV's batteries.

That's what the title stated in the article 

All cars on the roads of Europe: The numbers country by country

How many are there? How old are they? What is the density? Which fuel is used? Here comes the country comparison

As stated if the point of EV's is climate change you need to look at all vehicles on the road not just focus on a small minority

[JBChiangRai]

5 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

 

As stated if the point of EV's is climate change you need to look at all vehicles on the road not just focus on a small minority

 

I agree with you on climate change, however on the phase we are in of the adoption cycle it is percentage of new sales that points to which phase we are in.

[Madgee]

12 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

There are countless things to do while waiting for the car to charge, gloating in the fact that you are saving yourself lots of money compared to driving an ICEV. Your neighbour may not be as stupid as …

Another one where it's all about money! Duh. 

[JBChiangRai]

11 minutes ago, Madgee said:

Another one where it's all about money! Duh. 

 

Money makes the world go around
The world go around
The world go around
Money makes the world go around
It makes the world go 'round.

A mark, a yen, a buck or a pound
A buck or a yen
A buck or a pound.
Is all that makes the world go around
That clinking, clanking sound
Can make the world go 'round

Money money money money
Money money money money
Money money money

If you happen to rich
And you feel like a night's entertainment
You can pay for a gay escapade
If you happen to be rich and alone
And you need a companion
You can ring (ting-a-ling) for the maid
If you happen to be rich
And you find you are left by your lover
And you moan and you groan quite a lot
You can take it on the chin
Call a cab and begin to recover
On your 14-karat yacht! What!?

Money makes the world go around
The world go around
The world go around
Money makes the world go aroung
Of that we both are sure
On being poor!

Money money money
Money money money
Money money money
Money money money

Money money money
Money money money
Money money money

Money money money, money money money
Money money money, money money money
Money money money, money money money
Money money money, money money money

When you haven't any coal in the stove
And you freeze in the winter
And you curse to the wind at your fate
When you haven't any shoes on your feet
Your coat's thin as paper
And you look 30 pounds underweight
When you go to get a word of advice
From the fat little pastor
He will tell you to love evermore
But when hunger comes to rap
Rat-a-tat rat-a-tat at the window
(At the window!)
Who's there? (hunger) oh, hunger!
See how love flies out the door

For, money makes the world go around
The world go around
The world
Money makes the world go 'round
The clinking, clanking sound of
Money money money money
Money money money money.
Get a little, get a little
Money money money money
Mark, a yen, a buck or a pound
That clinking, clanking, clunking sound
Is all that makes the world go 'round
It makes the world go 'round!

 

 

[Ralf001]

31 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

It has been mentioned numerous times on various threads that if one doesn’t have access to home charging, owning an EV can be challenging. Having said that, it’s still very doable for the average motorist who mainly uses his car for the daily work commute. Go to a DC charging station once a week, plug it in for 30-40 mins and do any of the following:

- watch Netflix or HBO GO or YT on the big infotainment screen

- get something to eat

- get a massage

- go shopping 

- take a walk

- walk the dog

- play on the phone

- call a friend or a relative

- catch up on emails

- read a book 

 

There are countless things to do while waiting for the car to charge, gloating in the fact that you are saving yourself lots of money compared to driving an ICEV. Your neighbour may not be as stupid as …

 

With a long charge lead you could park behind the charge station and get into a bit of dogging.

[vinny41]

20 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

I agree with you on climate change, however on the phase we are in of the adoption cycle it is percentage of new sales that points to which phase we are in.

Personally I think once there is an affordable solution available to all vehicles the government should announce a phase out plan on vehicles starting from Euro 1  emissions to Euro 7 

The plan should be announced 5 years in advance to allow businesses to prepare and budget for changes and each phase should have  a 3 year life span

Yes it would take 26 years to phase out completely 

[JBChiangRai]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Personally I think once there is an affordable solution available to all vehicles the government should announce a phase out plan on vehicles starting from Euro 1  emissions to Euro 7 

The plan should be announced 5 years in advance to allow businesses to prepare and budget for changes and each phase should have  a 3 year life span

Yes it would take 26 years to phase out completely 

All new cars will be electric in 11 years.

[vinny41]

1 minute ago, JBChiangRai said:

All new cars will be electric in 11 years.

Think more like 20 years allowing for slippage

However, the government has pledged to continue supporting the production of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin stated that he wants the nation to serve as a “last centre” of ICE production until the usage of the technology completely diminishes. More precisely, he reassured that Thailand would continue to support the manufacturing of ICE vehicles for the next 10-15 years.

https://asiafundmanagers.com/us/policy-focus-on-ice-vehicles-to-slowdown-thailands-ev-adoption/

[thaibeachlovers]

On 3/16/2024 at 4:32 PM, eisfeld said:

 

The truck filled up at a pump which needs electricity. Those charming hand operated pumps disappeared from my area.

The trucks fill up at a facility which likely has it's own generator.

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

There are countless things to do while waiting for the car to charge, gloating in the fact that you are saving yourself lots of money compared to driving an ICEV. Your neighbour may not be as stupid as …

Only till the government brings in road user charges, and with a resale value of $0 will they be gloating when it comes time to buy a new car?

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, Korat Kiwi said:

Toyota was No1 in NZ for pickup truck for years.  Partially because the competition was so weak bordering on non existent. 

 

However Toyota appeared to test on their laurels and never upgraded what was bound for the NZ market. 

 

Along came Ford a few years ago with their new beaut Ranger.  Farmers switched overnight to this new and comfortable pickup truck (Called a ute in NZ and Oz). 

 

Toyota has since updated what is being sent to NZ,  they are still doing very well with their car fleet but it will take some time to regain their foothold on utes. 

 

 

Given that parking spaces at NZ supermarkets were done for an average size car, those huge rangers must be a headache to park, I can barely get out of my car as the spaces are so narrow, and my car isn't a monster truck.

[JBChiangRai]

14 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Think more like 20 years allowing for slippage

However, the government has pledged to continue supporting the production of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin stated that he wants the nation to serve as a “last centre” of ICE production until the usage of the technology completely diminishes. More precisely, he reassured that Thailand would continue to support the manufacturing of ICE vehicles for the next 10-15 years.

https://asiafundmanagers.com/us/policy-focus-on-ice-vehicles-to-slowdown-thailands-ev-adoption/

I don’t think there will be any slippage, there’s no need for it. Sretta will be long gone too.

 

Thailand may manufacture ICE vehicles after 2035 but they won’t be for the domestic market.

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Hertz announced its EV sell-down plans in January, citing lackluster demand, costly depreciation and expensive repairs

not just weak demand combination of all the above 

Rental Company Sixt Phases Out Tesla EVs From Fleet

The German rental car giant says the reduced residual value, and high repair costs as the reasons why it's dropping Teslas.

https://insideevs.com/news/699689/tesla-sixt-ev-fleet/

meanwhile more bad news for BYD international sales 

BYD’s Quality Problems Hit International Markets: Report

EVs piling in European warehouses and logistics-related quality issues are new headaches for the world’s largest EV maker.

While mold can be a common occurrence in cars, especially when they’re stored for a long duration in humid weather, the issue with BYD cars in Europe was that they didn’t receive the proper treatment to have the mold removed.

In Thailand, where Chinese EVs have taken the domestic automotive market by storm, BYD’s quality issues seem to be mounting. Complaints of paint and plastic peeling have become public

https://insideevs.com/news/712148/byd-quality-problems-hit-international-markets/

China EV imports are ‘landing in Europe with mold’ - 10,000 unsold cars sit in warehouses

At the end of 2023, BYD had over 10,000 passenger cars sitting in European warehouses; the certificates authorizing their sale in the European Union will expire soon, The Wall Street Journal reports.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/1877252/china-ev-imports-europe-mold-cars-warehouses

UK electric share of the market is 2.1%

https://uk.motor1.com/news/710991/car-numbers-european-roads-by-country/

Yay. The ICE fights back. The luvvies will be sorry when they try to sell theirs. 5555555555555555

 

I saw a news article a while back. There are thousands of unsellable EVs in China because during covid no one was buying and after covid they didn't have the tech that people want, as obsolete already.

[thaibeachlovers]

18 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Think more like 20 years allowing for slippage

If anyone thinks there will not be a better tech for cars 20 years from now I have a few bridges for sale, going cheap and barely used.

 

We might not even own cars at all, and just use auto drive taxis powered by who knows what, or WW3 might have made us revert to walking or horses.

[JBChiangRai]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Yay. The ICE fights back. The luvvies will be sorry when they try to sell theirs. 5555555555555555

 

I saw a news article a while back. There are thousands of unsellable EVs in China because during covid no one was buying and after covid they didn't have the tech that people want, as obsolete already.

fake story

 

ex-rental vehicles company went bust

[vinny41]

Just now, JBChiangRai said:

I don’t think there will be any slippage, there’s no need for it. Sretta will be long gone too.

 

Thailand may manufacture ICE vehicles after 2035 but they won’t be for the domestic market.

I disagree we have seen slippage across the world from the UK, Europe

These ICE manufactures will have lock tight contracts with the Thai government to produce vehicles for both the domestic market and export 

and who knows what will be selling in 10-15 years time

if we time travel back to between 2009-2014 how many electric cars sold in Thailand during that period i suspect very few if any

[Korat Kiwi]

24 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Given that parking spaces at NZ supermarkets were done for an average size car, those huge rangers must be a headache to park, I can barely get out of my car as the spaces are so narrow, and my car isn't a monster truck.

That is true,  however if you don't live in the main centres the parking areas are hardly ever full. 

 

If I had a new wagon I'd probably park it well away from other cars.  I know shopping trolleys still cause a lot of dents scratches etc but at least you may not have over eager brats opening a car door onto your vehicle. 

 

Those Rangers are nice but a bit over the top for me. My brother has got a 2009 Toyota landcruiser series 200.  A big brute of a wagon.  

 

Way outside my pay scale at NZ$60K second hand.  But at least he uses it. 

[JBChiangRai]

28 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I disagree we have seen slippage across the world from the UK, Europe

These ICE manufactures will have lock tight contracts with the Thai government to produce vehicles for both the domestic market and export 

and who knows what will be selling in 10-15 years time

if we time travel back to between 2009-2014 how many electric cars sold in Thailand during that period i suspect very few if any

The UK has slipped to 2035, the world seems nailed on that date and we are on target, there is no reason to anticipate any slippage.

[vinny41]

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

The UK has slipped to 2035, the world seems nailed on that date and we are on target, there is no reason to anticipate any slippage.

There will always be slippage in 2011 UK  government announce that all homes and businesses will have smart meter's  fitted by 2019 currently the rollout stands at 57% since the announcement was made in 2011 they have discovered that meter's in basements or flats don't work  

. However, it has adjusted its deadlines three times and reduced its target installation levels for smart meters from “‘all homes and small businesses’” in 2019, to its current target of 74.5% of homes and nearly 69% of small businesses to have smart meters by the end of 2025. At the end of March 2023, more than a decade after the rollout started, only 57% of all electricity and gas meters were smart. 

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/197947/delayed-smart-meter-programme-fails-to-hit-targets-and-secure-public-support/

I predict the same will happen for petrol and diesel phase out of new cars

France, Austria, Spain have push the date back to 2040

Germany was pushing back last year until it received  concessions to allow for e-fuels and was joined by Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic. 

https://www.globalfleet.com/en/safety-environment/europe/features/road-net-zero-clear-journey-not?a=API07&t[0]=Emissions&t[1]=Electric Hybrid&t[2]=Sustainability&curl=1

[JBChiangRai]

18 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

There will always be slippage in 2011 UK  government announce that all homes and businesses will have smart meter's  fitted by 2019 currently the rollout stands at 57% since the announcement was made in 2011 they have discovered that meter's in basements or flats don't work  

. However, it has adjusted its deadlines three times and reduced its target installation levels for smart meters from “‘all homes and small businesses’” in 2019, to its current target of 74.5% of homes and nearly 69% of small businesses to have smart meters by the end of 2025. At the end of March 2023, more than a decade after the rollout started, only 57% of all electricity and gas meters were smart. 

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/197947/delayed-smart-meter-programme-fails-to-hit-targets-and-secure-public-support/

I predict the same will happen for petrol and diesel phase out of new cars

France, Austria, Spain have push the date back to 2040

Germany was pushing back last year until it received  concessions to allow for e-fuels and was joined by Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic. 

https://www.globalfleet.com/en/safety-environment/europe/features/road-net-zero-clear-journey-not?a=API07&t[0]=Emissions&t[1]=Electric Hybrid&t[2]=Sustainability&curl=1

I hope I am still around to see.

[vinny41]

The Thai Government target for EV production is

 Amongst them are the 30@30 policy that aims to transition 30% of its auto production to EVs by 2030

So that a target on 30% EV production by 2030 leaving 70% ICE  production if it takes 7 years to get to 30% how many years will it take to get to 100% 16 years from now maybe 2040

https://asiafundmanagers.com/us/policy-focus-on-ice-vehicles-to-slowdown-thailands-ev-adoption/

[JBChiangRai]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

The Thai Government target for EV production is

 Amongst them are the 30@30 policy that aims to transition 30% of its auto production to EVs by 2030

So that a target on 30% EV production by 2030 leaving 70% ICE  production if it takes 7 years to get to 30% how many years will it take to get to 100% 16 years from now maybe 2040

https://asiafundmanagers.com/us/policy-focus-on-ice-vehicles-to-slowdown-thailands-ev-adoption/

I think the 30@30 policy is about right to achieve domestic sales to be 100% EV’s by 2035 which is also their policy, the two policies are not mutually exclusive. On the contrary they are complementary.

 

Thailand accounts for 72% of all EV sales in ASEAN countries, so it’s only to be expected that ICE vehicles will continue to be exported and EV exports will lag behind.

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

I think the 30@30 policy is about right to achieve domestic sales to be 100% EV’s by 2035 which is also their policy, the two policies are not mutually exclusive. On the contrary they are complementary.

 

Thailand accounts for 72% of all EV sales in ASEAN countries, so it’s only to be expected that ICE vehicles will continue to be exported and EV exports will lag behind.

I think that wouldn't happen as well as cars Thailand is a major manufacturer of trucks and other commercial vehicles

Most countries now have a local content requirement for imports 

If they don't achieve the 40% local content will be very difficult to export EV's

According to a local newspaper, the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) supports the government’s stance towards a buoyant ICE automotive industry. TNSC chairman Chaichan Chareonsuk said that the value addition of EVs to local manufacturers is only 34%, while for ICE vehicles the value addition of 53%.

But, to reach its 30@30 goals, Thailand still has a long way to go. “Based on the current market situation and expected future movements, we believe that the Thai government will most likely miss its 1.123 million zero-emission vehicles target by 2030,” says Hirotaka Uchida, Head of Arthur D. Little Thailand, Automotive and Manufacturing in Southeast Asia Pacific.

https://asiafundmanagers.com/us/policy-focus-on-ice-vehicles-to-slowdown-thailands-ev-adoption/

 

[JBChiangRai]

There is no evidence to suggest Thailand will miss its target of 100% EV sales by 2035.

 

We are 11 years away and we were around 10% last year, I think we will be between 15% and 20% this year.

 

I am very concerned that other countries like UK, EU and the Former Colonies are doing exactly the wrong thing with Chinese EV’s to accelerate EV uptake.

 

I think they will protect their local auto manufacturers who would like nothing more than to back pedal on EV production.

[vinny41]

27 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

There is no evidence to suggest Thailand will miss its target of 100% EV sales by 2035.

 

We are 11 years away and we were around 10% last year, I think we will be between 15% and 20% this year.

 

I am very concerned that other countries like UK, EU and the Former Colonies are doing exactly the wrong thing with Chinese EV’s to accelerate EV uptake.

 

I think they will protect their local auto manufacturers who would like nothing more than to back pedal on EV production.

it was clearly stated in the article by this guy 

 we believe that the Thai government will most likely miss its 1.123 million zero-emission vehicles target by 2030,” says Hirotaka Uchida, Head of Arthur D. Little Thailand, Automotive and Manufacturing in Southeast Asia Pacific.

Normally as a rule Most Government's incurred slippage when they try to enforce a target that the majority of the public are not signed up to

Every country adopts measures to protect their own  local auto manufacturing base hence any country that wants to export cars to Thailand with the exception of China is subject to import tariffs on between 40-80%