Coalition Fractures as Prayut's Party Denied Key Defence Portfolio

[webfact]

 

Tensions within Thailand's current ruling coalition surfaced today, as the Ruam Thai Sang Chart party, led by former Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, expressed discontent over being denied a key defence portfolio in the latest cabinet reshuffle.

 

The party, supposedly miffed by a decision taken largely by Pheu Thai, the core coalition partner, has sparked a fresh bout of infighting amidst Thailand's volatile politics.

 

Sources close to the matter have hinted at the frustrations within the Ruam Thai Sang Chart, the coalition's fourth largest partner. The party had eyed control over the critical defence portfolio which entails jurisdiction over the army, navy, and air force. However, the decision by Pheu Thai, headed by Thaksin Shinawatra, to keep the portfolio within its own ranks led to disgruntlement soaring within Prayut's party ranks.

 

Adding to the volatility, the expected appointment of Nattapon Nakpanich, a close associate of Prayut, as deputy defence minister didn't materialise. This denied the Ruam Thai Sang Chart an anticipated foothold in the ministry's affairs, causing further ire among its members.

 

The friction has seemingly intensified with the abrupt resignation of Krisada Chinavicharana, a former Ruam Thai Sang Chart deputy finance minister. Krisada stepped down in protest after a reshuffle robbing him of five of the six agencies under his purview, another perceived slight to Prayut's faction.

 

These developments hint at a power struggle keeping the coalition partners on their toes. Thaksin's alleged desire to monopolise the finance portfolio with his Pheu Thai party members hints at the underlying tensions rapidly mounting within the coalition.

 

It's crucial to note that Thaksin and Prayut, despite deep-rooted differences, had purportedly struck a "secret deal" that led to the formation of this unusual bedfellow coalition. Reports suggest that a deal allowed Thaksin to escape a royal pardon-curtailed, one-year jail term, raising questions about the integrity of this fragile coalition.

 

With growing disgruntlement and volatile undercurrents, the Thai governmental structure once again teeters on the edge. Allegiances drawn within political circles will undoubtedly enthral and shape Thailand’s politics in the coming weeks.

 

File photo courtesy: Thay Rath

 

-- 2024-05-11

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[herfiehandbag]

Perhaps it is time for a new government, drawn from the apolitical ranks of the Privy Council perhaps?

 

Step forward Retired General Prayut Chan-O-Cha?

[dinsdale]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The party, supposedly miffed by a decision taken largely by Pheu Thai,

Whenever we see this hopefully we all know that it's a Thaksin order. Getting into bed with the enemy was always going to be interesting.

[2baht]

Is that the rumble of distant tanks I hear???

 

[Tropicalevo]

Oh dear.

It seems that the generals are not trusted to be in charge of the army, navy and air force.

Now that is a surprise.

[brianthainess]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The party had eyed control over the critical defence portfolio which entails jurisdiction over the army, navy, and air force.

The Biggest corrupt money spinners in the land. Control of that wow, and coming soon 30 billion baht for a gulf course. 

[Gottfrid]

Didn´t both he and the F--King frog say bye bye to politics? Time to stand for at least one promise before you hit the dirt.

[dinsdale]

2 hours ago, 2baht said:

Is that the rumble of distant tanks I hear???

 

All part of a long term plan? Prayut must have known that Thaksin would shut down any attemt by him to insert one of his mates into this portflio. Coalition formed because of deal to bring back Thaksin. Opposition that won the election denied government by the Junta's Senate. Opposition to be dissolved by the Junta's legal arm. Cause destabalisation within the coalition. Coalition fails. Governance becomes unworkable. Military steps in. Just a thought.

[TroubleandGrumpy]

Thaksin is back and he is planning things very carefully step by step - based around the fact that the Junta appointed Senate will be outed very soon, plus avoiding tanks on the streets again. IMO Thaksin also has in that plan, his belief that Pheu Thai will win more seats than Move Forward at an early election. I agree - especially if/when the economy turns around and the 10K handout has occured. Thaksin has been a 'game changer' and he knows Move Forward and the Junta Parties (including Anitan's turncoats) will never partner up, so he knows that without Pheu Thai no one else can form Government. Pheu Thai, guided by Thaksin, is going to be exercising their power more and more this year, because they will say (behind closed doors) 'either you cooperate now or we go to an early election'.  Whilst Move Forward will probably think they can do the impossible again despite Thaksin being back, the Junta Parties know the only way they will have any power for a long time is to comply with Pheu Thai, or fire up the tanks. 

Edited May 11 by TroubleandGrumpy

[dinsdale]

4 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Thaksin is back and he is planning things very carefully step by step - based around the fact that the Junta appointed Senate will be outed very soon.  IMO Thaksin also has in that plan his belief that Pheu Thai will win more seats than Move Forward at an early election. I agree - especially  if/when the economy turns around and the 10K handout has occured. Thaksin has been a 'game changer' and he knows Move Forward and the Junta Parties (including Anitan's turncoats) will never partner up, so he knows that without Pheu Thai no one else can form Government. Pheu Thai, guided by Thaksin, is going to be exercising their power more and more this year, because they will say (behind closed doors) 'either you cooperate now or we go to an early election'.  Whilst Move Forward will probably think they can do the impossible again, even with Thaksin back, the Junta Parties know the only way they will have any power is if they comply with Pheu Thai, or they fire up the tanks. 

You assume alot here. As I understand 50 of the junta's senators remain. As for the selection not election of the other 200 senators the outcome will be interesting. The 40 yrs and above and only certain occupations criteria is not good for MFP. So it's mainly down to the military/royalists v PTP. The whole notion of non political affiliation is a farce by the way. 

[TroubleandGrumpy]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

You assume alot here. As I understand 50 of the junta's senators remain. As for the selection not election of the other 200 senators the outcome will be interesting. The 40 yrs and above and only certain occupations criteria is not good for MFP. So it's mainly down to the military/royalists v PTP. The whole notion of non political affiliation is a farce by the way. 

Yes indeed - whatever happens the new Senate will not be 'condusive' to Move Forward policies. Yes it is essentially PT versus Military.  IMO the majority of Royalists are not against PT as much as they were in the past - because they are all deeply against Move Forward.

 

The issue of PT versus Military goes very deep - both Thaksin and his Sister were outed by coups. IMO the outcome will be a severe curtailing of the power of the Military such that they cannot ever again take power through a coup.  But Thaksin Snr knows it will be a generational process, and one that he will not be around to see finish - but probably his Sister will see (first hand) - and he hopes that it will be his Daughter that will put in the final nail. 

 

IMO by taking power and then not returning to the barracks, but staying on in power for 10 years, the Junta has destroyed their credibility to ever again take power though a coup. They tried to hold power through the political system, but being so inept and ignorant of politics, they have literally shot themselves in both feet.  Should they ever rolll out their tanks again, the economic and financial responses from the western world will destroy Thailand in the long run - despite China taking their side.  

[dinsdale]

8 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Yes indeed - whatever happens the new Senate will not be 'condusive' to Move Forward policies. Yes it is essentially PT versus Military.  IMO the majority of Royalists are not against PT as much as they were in the past - because they are all deeply against Move Forward.

 

The issue of PT versus Military goes very deep - both Thaksin and his Sister were outed by coups. IMO the outcome will be a severe curtailing of the power of the Military such that they cannot ever again take power through a coup.  But Thaksin Snr knows it will be a generational process, and one that he will not be around to see finish - but probably his Sister will see (first hand) - and he hopes that it will be his Daughter that will put in the final nail. 

 

IMO by taking power and then not returning to the barracks, but staying on in power for 10 years, the Junta has destroyed their credibility to ever again take power though a coup. They tried to hold power through the political system, but being so inept and ignorant of politics, they have literally shot themselves in both feet.  Should they ever rolll out their tanks again, the economic and financial responses from the western world will destroy Thailand in the long run - despite China taking their side.  

Do not underestimate the power of the military in politics. Remember who their boss is.

Edited May 11 by dinsdale

[TroubleandGrumpy]

Just now, dinsdale said:

Do not underestimate the power of the military. Remember who their boss is.

Definitely a good point. But as with these things in other local countries, if the 'boss' fails to see the iceberg ahead, he will go down with the ship - like so many others have in the past. Look around and you will see that most of those countries in this Region that have no 'boss' anymore are ruled/controlled by the military. Self preservation is a powerful thing - even for the biggest ship's captain in the world. 

[mfd101]

But surely arsonists deserve to have a regular supply of matches for their enjoyment?

[Artisi]

19 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Definitely a good point. But as with these things in other local countries, if the 'boss' fails to see the iceberg ahead, he will go down with the ship - like so many others have in the past. Look around and you will see that most of those countries in this Region that have no 'boss' anymore are ruled/controlled by the military. Self preservation is a powerful thing - even for the biggest ship's captain in the world. 

and the winters are very cold in the Black Forest.

[nobodysfriend]

46 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Should they ever rolll out their tanks again, the economic and financial responses from the western world will destroy Thailand in the long run -

 

Dream on ...

[Mavideol]

oh boy uncle not happy, he was preparing the P.O for new submarines, new fight jets, some new tanks, etc. and he was counting on a very thick brown envelope from Chinese brothers, it all went down the pipes 555

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

Didn´t both he and the F--King frog say bye bye to politics? Time to stand for at least one promise before you hit the dirt.

They did but not the monthly pay cheque

[klauskunkel]

 

"It's my party, and I'll cry if I want to
Cry if I want to, cry if I want to..."

[Purdey]

I am sure Thais will be happy to get 10,000 baht each. But realizing that's the only free handout they will get, they will not vote for PT again.

[Srikcir]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Tensions within Thailand's current ruling coalition surfaced today, as the Ruam Thai Sang Chart party, led by former Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, expressed discontent over being denied a key defence portfolio in the latest cabinet reshuffle.

"Privy Council at full strength after inclusion of Prayut", December 04, 2023 https://www.nationthailand.com/gallery/infographic/40033499

• "The (Privy) councillors cannot be partisan and therefore cannot be members of the House of Representatives, Senate, Election Commission, Ombudsman, members of the National Human Rights Commission, judges of the Constitutional Court, judges of an Administrative Court, members of the National Counter Corruption Commission, members of the State Audit Commission, government officials holding a permanent position or receiving a permanent salary, officials of a state enterprise, other state official or holder of other position of member or official of a political party, and must not manifest loyalty to any political party." (my bold)

Is Prayut out-of-order with his discontent?

[sherwood]

He may be a sook but maybe he has enough clout to get another coup going.

Hope so.

Oh what a <deleted> hole this place is.

[bannork]

7 hours ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Thaksin is back and he is planning things very carefully step by step - based around the fact that the Junta appointed Senate will be outed very soon, plus avoiding tanks on the streets again. IMO Thaksin also has in that plan, his belief that Pheu Thai will win more seats than Move Forward at an early election. I agree - especially if/when the economy turns around and the 10K handout has occured. Thaksin has been a 'game changer' and he knows Move Forward and the Junta Parties (including Anitan's turncoats) will never partner up, so he knows that without Pheu Thai no one else can form Government. Pheu Thai, guided by Thaksin, is going to be exercising their power more and more this year, because they will say (behind closed doors) 'either you cooperate now or we go to an early election'.  Whilst Move Forward will probably think they can do the impossible again despite Thaksin being back, the Junta Parties know the only way they will have any power for a long time is to comply with Pheu Thai, or fire up the tanks. 

I'm not sure Thaksin's planning carefully.

2 blunders already: his failed attempt to act as mediator for the anti junta groups in Myanmar, and secondly the proposal to sell 10 year old rice from Yingluck's era to either Africans or Thai conscripts.  

His impetuous nature, arrogance and desire to always dominate has made him a lot of enemies in the past.

And the game has changed, millions of Thais now have Future Forward, or whatever they are called post possible dissolution.

 

[TroubleandGrumpy]

18 hours ago, bannork said:

I'm not sure Thaksin's planning carefully.

2 blunders already: his failed attempt to act as mediator for the anti junta groups in Myanmar, and secondly the proposal to sell 10 year old rice from Yingluck's era to either Africans or Thai conscripts.  

His impetuous nature, arrogance and desire to always dominate has made him a lot of enemies in the past.

And the game has changed, millions of Thais now have Future Forward, or whatever they are called post possible dissolution.

 

Thaksin is not liked by most Expats that is for sure - but also most Expats dont understand Thai politics (me included). However, I did state that Anutin could be the 'kingmaker' and most posters were adamant that Pita would be PM which I said will not happen. However, I also got it wrong on Srettha Thavisin - not even on my radar that one.

Thaksin is very powerful and influential - dont underestimate him in Thai politics going forward. He did not spend a day in jail and has been released with his freedom intact. A deal was done obviosuly - and he knows how to get deals done. No his plans aint perfect and he will make mistakes - but that is the nature of politics - 24 hours is a long time.  Pita could do well to study Thaksin and learn how he has been able to get things done. His time will come, and it could well be him rather than Thakson jnr that nails the military coffin shut, but Thaksin would have to agee to that for it to happen without a lot of political conflict - both of them need to be aware of the dangers of massive conflict giving the military an excuse to take power again. I think Thaksin has learned a lot after he was forced/encouraged to resign from Office.