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Can Israel Defeat Hamas Without a Ground Invasion in Rafah? An Expert's Perspective


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Since the surprise attack by Hamas on southern Israel on October 7, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has intensified, drawing international attention and intervention. John Spencer, a military expert with 25 years of experience as an infantry soldier and now the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point, has been closely monitoring the situation. Having embedded with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Gaza twice over the winter, Spencer offers a unique perspective on the feasibility of Israel defeating Hamas without a ground invasion in Rafah, the southern Gaza city believed to be Hamas' last major stronghold.

 

Spencer's analysis highlights a significant tension between Israel's military capabilities and the constraints imposed by international and, particularly, U.S. pressure. According to Spencer, the IDF possesses the capability to dismantle Hamas' military infrastructure rapidly. However, he believes that international pressure, especially from the U.S., has slowed and limited Israel's military operations, inadvertently increasing Palestinian casualties and suffering by prolonging the conflict.

 

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"The fact is that Rafah's where the hostages and remaining Hamas military power and leadership are believed to be," Spencer notes. "Their rockets and weapons production and other capabilities, everything. The IDF would have to go in on the ground because these things are deeply buried underground in the tunnels Hamas has built. If Hamas survives in Rafah, they win."

 

Rafah is strategically significant for several reasons. It is not only a stronghold for Hamas but also a critical point for weapons smuggling across the Egyptian border. Spencer argues that if the IDF does not conduct a ground invasion to root out Hamas' deeply entrenched infrastructure, including extensive tunnel networks, Hamas will continue to pose a significant threat. "If Hamas survives in Rafah, it doesn't matter if they’ve been pushed into the smallest corner of Gaza. If the Hamas leadership survives, they’ve won the war, because they can say they attacked Israel and survived, and then they can rebuild," he explains.

 

Spencer’s perspective is informed by his extensive military experience and his research into urban warfare. He draws parallels with other conflicts to underscore his point. For instance, he compares the situation to the U.S. military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, where quick, overwhelming force was used to dismantle enemy capabilities.

 

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The U.S. has been a critical player in this conflict, historically supporting Israel's mission to defeat Hamas. However, according to Spencer, recent U.S. actions suggest a shift. The U.S. has been withholding certain types of arms that Israel might use in Rafah, aiming to prevent a major offensive that would likely result in significant civilian casualties. "The US pressure on Israel has come to a head in Rafah," Spencer observes. This restraint, he argues, could inadvertently lead to a Hamas victory. "War is hell," Spencer affirms, but he notes that war must sometimes be waged decisively to achieve lasting peace.

 

Spencer criticizes the current U.S. approach, suggesting that by slowing down Israel's operations, the international community is inadvertently extending the conflict and increasing civilian suffering. "By taking this approach, the US is inadvertently paving the way for a Hamas victory," he warns.

 

Spencer firmly believes that a ground invasion is necessary for Israel to achieve its goals. He dismisses the notion that a ground invasion would be counterproductive, despite some views from U.S. officials. "As a scholar of urban combat, I strongly disagree with that. The fact is that Rafah's where the hostages and remaining Hamas military power and leadership are believed to be," he insists.  Spencer points to the IDF’s successes in other parts of Gaza, such as Northern Gaza, as evidence that ground operations can be effective. "If you’re going to measure whether Israel has had any success in its approach, you measure it against what Hamas was on October 7, not what it is now. The IDF’s approach, in my opinion, has been very effective at destroying Hamas as a military organization," he argues.

 

The international community's concerns about civilian casualties and the ethical conduct of war play a significant role in shaping the conflict. Spencer acknowledges the complexity and the high stakes involved. He points out that Hamas’ tactics of embedding military infrastructure within civilian areas complicate the IDF’s operations and increase the risk of civilian casualties. "Hamas took every law of war and reverse-engineered it to build an environment in which Hamas has occupied facilities because of their legal protections," Spencer explains. He argues that this tactic puts conventional militaries like the IDF at a significant disadvantage, particularly under the scrutiny of the international community.

 

Spencer draws comparisons between the IDF's conduct in Gaza and the U.S. military's operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. He asserts that the IDF has implemented every civilian harm mitigation technique developed over the past 30 years, often going beyond what the U.S. has done. "The US military uses speed, force, and overwhelming power. That’s what we did in Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq," he says. In contrast, international pressure has pushed Israel to adopt a slower, more methodical approach, which Spencer believes has prolonged the conflict and increased destruction.

 

Looking beyond the immediate conflict, Spencer warns of the long-term consequences of allowing Hamas to survive. He suggests that leaving Hamas in power would validate their strategy and embolden other extremist groups. "Hamas will be viewed as the great actor who figured out a way to conduct a massive, brutal attack on Israel, survive, and still achieve political victories," he cautions. Spencer also touches on the potential for creating more militants in the future. He agrees with General David Petraeus that military actions can sometimes radicalize individuals who might join terrorist groups later. However, he emphasizes that in the present, the immediate threat must be neutralized. "Wars create people who aren’t happy if their side loses, and that can actually radicalize them. But in the present when you face an existential threat or a world war, it isn’t a consideration," he asserts.

 

Spencer's analysis presents a stark view of the challenges and necessities of modern warfare against terrorist organizations like Hamas. He firmly believes that a ground invasion in Rafah is essential for Israel to achieve its goals and that international constraints, particularly those from the U.S., have inadvertently prolonged the conflict and increased suffering. 

 

In conclusion, Spencer's stance is clear: Israel can defeat Hamas, but it requires decisive, ground-based military action in Rafah. Without this, he argues, the cycle of violence and suffering is likely to continue, with Hamas emerging stronger and more emboldened.

 

Opinion military expert John Spencer

 

Credit: CNN 2024-05-20

 

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What Spencer isn't saying now but what he and other experts in this kind of warfare maintain is that it isn't enough to just to defeat your opponent in battle, , but you also have to occupy the territory they held. Otherwise they come back. . Israel hasn't followed that policy. Which is why they're fighting again in the North. Israel may simply not have the resources to occupy all of Gaza.. Which is why they're trying to outsource it to some Arab force.  Why would any of the regimes in the Mideast want to wade into this mess and bail out Israel?

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On 5/19/2024 at 5:11 PM, Jingthing said:

It's common sense that Hamas can't be defeated without troops on the ground (duh), but the bigger question is whether Hamas can be defeated at all. 

 

They certainly can be defeated. It's a matter of how far you are willing to go. 

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1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

and I'm saying that Spencer is making it up. He's obviously israel all the way hey hey hey, and not trustworthy as a neutral voice on the subject.

30,000 + dead Palestinian non combatants ( mainly women and children )  are proof that he's just another israeli sycophant blindly supporting israel in it's vile conflict destroying Gaza.

30,000 + dead Palestinian non combatants ( mainly women and children )  are proof that he's just another israeli sycophant blindly supporting israel in it's vile conflict destroying Gaza.

 

Can you provide a link to that so called proof you have. Did he ever claim to be neutral? If not being neutral means your not trustworthy, what about you?

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On 5/22/2024 at 10:42 AM, Neeranam said:

It's not rocket science -  Israel could stop the forming of terrorist groups/ attacks and derision from around the world quite easily. The ball is entirely in their court. 

They got to :- 

1 - End the Occupation: Withdraw from occupied territories and negotiate a fair and sustainable solution for the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

2- Dismantle Settlements: Halt the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and dismantle existing ones that are deemed illegal under international law.

3- Lift the Blockade on Gaza: Work with international partners to lift the blockade on Gaza, allowing for the free flow of goods, services, and people.

4- End Apartheid: Implement policies to end any forms of discrimination against Palestinians and other minority groups within Israel.

5- Pursue a Two-State Solution: Actively engage in peace negotiations aimed at achieving a two-state solution, recognizing the right of both Israelis and Palestinians to self-determination and statehood.

6- Acknowledge Historical Grievances: Recognize and address historical grievances and injustices faced by Palestinians to build a foundation of trust and reconciliation.

7- Support Democratic Governance in Palestine: Encourage and support the development of democratic institutions and governance within Palestinian territories.

8- Respect International Law: Adhere to international law and United Nations resolutions concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Point 5.....they dont want a 2 state solution, they have clearly said this 3 times since the inception of Israel. 

 

Point 7, no such thing as democracy in the Middle East... Hamas won an election then they threw the rule book out the window.

 

Point 1, most of the occupied  territories are captured land from several wars when Arabs invaded. To the victor goes the spoils and that's been the case since the world began.

 

People seem to forget that most of Gaza is already radicalised and supported with glee the attack on oct 7, wont bang on about what kids are taught at schools etc.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, billd766 said:

Israel, under its present government, is losing the friends and supporters it used to have, including the USA.

Hardly surprising when they are killing civilians in 'safe camps' after they've been told by the ICJ to stop. 

 

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On 5/20/2024 at 4:11 AM, Jingthing said:

It's common sense that Hamas can't be defeated without troops on the ground (duh), but the bigger question is whether Hamas can be defeated at all. 

You know the answer to that question.

The bigger question is, 'what are they trying to achieve'?

 

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4 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Hardly surprising when they are killing civilians in 'safe camps' after they've been told by the ICJ to stop. 

 

I was going to post about that. Seems israel has finally gone too far, but will it be enough?

 

From the news on Al Jazeera even the White House is making noises about how awful it was.

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-longer-justifiable-israel-faces-international-condemnation-for-strike-in-rafah/

France's Macron: 'These operations must stop'

‘No longer justifiable’: Israel faces international condemnation for strike in Rafah

Palestinian Authority, Egypt accuse Israel of deliberately targeting civilians at displaced people camp; EU’s Borrell ‘horrified’; Qatar says strike could hinder hostage talks

 

It's all starting to fall apart for netanyahu

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egyptian-guard-killed-shooting-rafah-border-israel-egypt-investigating-2024-05-27/

A member of Egypt's security forces was killed in a shooting incident near the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip and an investigation is under way, Egypt's military spokesperson said in a statement on Monday.

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I was going to post about that. Seems israel has finally gone too far, but will it be enough?

 

From the news on Al Jazeera even the White House is making noises about how awful it was.

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-longer-justifiable-israel-faces-international-condemnation-for-strike-in-rafah/

France's Macron: 'These operations must stop'

‘No longer justifiable’: Israel faces international condemnation for strike in Rafah

Palestinian Authority, Egypt accuse Israel of deliberately targeting civilians at displaced people camp; EU’s Borrell ‘horrified’; Qatar says strike could hinder hostage talks

 

It's all starting to fall apart for netanyahu

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egyptian-guard-killed-shooting-rafah-border-israel-egypt-investigating-2024-05-27/

A member of Egypt's security forces was killed in a shooting incident near the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip and an investigation is under way, Egypt's military spokesperson said in a statement on Monday.

 

 

 

 

 

Israel claims the strike was outside of the designated safe or humanitarian area.

It remains to be seen whether this is correct or not.  All civilians deaths are tragic.  However, Hamas hides within the civilian population knowing that civilian deaths garner sympathy.  Of course, the media plays it for what it's worth.

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7 hours ago, Neeranam said:

You know the answer to that question.

The bigger question is, 'what are they trying to achieve'?

 

What particular conspiracy theory are you thinking and too scared to post?

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7 hours ago, it is what it is said:

 

anyone who knows about the middle east knows that israel has brought suffering on themselves, what goes around comes around. had they worked at living peacefully with their neighbours, i admit it wouldn't have been plain sailing, but they would have avoided the unnecessary hate and deaths, on both sides. anyone who thinks israel will 'defeat' hamas is delusional. unfortunately, this sad state of affairs is set to run and run.

Nothing justifies Oct 7th, nothing. 

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8 hours ago, billd766 said:

Not only are there many Palestinians in Jordan, but also Lebanon, Egypt , Syria, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Dubai, Turkey and many other countries, probably also the EU, UK and the USA.

 

Is Israel willing to take on and fight the whole world?

 

IMHO, for every Hamas fighter. innocent Palestinian man, woman, child and baby the IDF kill, another Palestinian somewhere in the world will be radicalised and become a sympathiser, a supporter, a passive or an active terrorist.

 

Israel, under its present government, is losing the friends and supporters it used to have and needs, including the USA.

Is Israel willing to take on and fight the whole world? 

 

That's just you making things up, Israel is after Hamas not all Palestinians. You could reflect and ask Hamas to release all the hostages to stop the war and those involved in the terrorist acts to give themselves up.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

Israel claims the strike was outside of the designated safe or humanitarian area.

It remains to be seen whether this is correct or not.  All civilians deaths are tragic.  However, Hamas hides within the civilian population knowing that civilian deaths garner sympathy.  Of course, the media plays it for what it's worth.

I don’t think Hamas needs to do anything for people to garner sympathy I think Israel is doing fine on their own on that front. You’d think they were designed and planted by Hamas to make people hate them, they’re that good at it. Look at the rabbi shmuly character. Or Dershowitz. Once again you almost can’t make it up. Truth is stranger than fiction. 

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11 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Do you have a link?

 

The news I see -  Netanyahu has admitted it was a tragic mistake.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-05-27-2024-7b743a848ef8bfbe69a9659a4a5dd047

Israeli officials have told the US that they believe tents housing displaced Gazans went up in flames after a fuel tank was set alight following an airstrike on top Hamas terrorists nearby, according to a report Monday.

The tank was located some 100 meters (330 feet) from the area targeted in the airstrike, but was ignited by shrapnel or something else following the Israeli attack, ABC News reported, citing an unnamed US official.

According to the report, the US has no way to validate or reject Israel’s version of events and is awaiting the outcome of a probe into the deadly incident.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/shrapnel-from-israeli-strike-may-have-ignited-fuel-tank-near-rafah-tents-report/

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On 5/22/2024 at 10:01 AM, Bkk Brian said:

30,000 + dead Palestinian non combatants ( mainly women and children )  are proof that he's just another israeli sycophant blindly supporting israel in it's vile conflict destroying Gaza.

 

Can you provide a link to that so called proof you have. Did he ever claim to be neutral? If not being neutral means your not trustworthy, what about you?

He uses the figures produced by Hamas, which whilst obviously an impeccably reliable and unbiased source, is a little bit short on evidence...

 

Even the UN has taken to revising their figures down.

 

Not that this bothers some, it is enough that "Jews" are doing it!

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19 hours ago, it is what it is said:

 

anyone who knows about the middle east knows that israel has brought suffering on themselves, what goes around comes around. had they worked at living peacefully with their neighbours, i admit it wouldn't have been plain sailing, but they would have avoided the unnecessary hate and deaths, on both sides. anyone who thinks israel will 'defeat' hamas is delusional. unfortunately, this sad state of affairs is set to run and run.

You know something the rest of the world dont, so what is it that you know that would have got Jews and Arabs living side by side together forever in a muted love affair?

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19 hours ago, billd766 said:

Not only are there many Palestinians in Jordan, but also Lebanon, Egypt , Syria, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Dubai, Turkey and many other countries, probably also the EU, UK and the USA.

 

Is Israel willing to take on and fight the whole world?

 

IMHO, for every Hamas fighter. innocent Palestinian man, woman, child and baby the IDF kill, another Palestinian somewhere in the world will be radicalised and become a sympathiser, a supporter, a passive or an active terrorist.

 

Israel, under its present government, is losing the friends and supporters it used to have and needs, including the USA.

Actually most of the "Palestinians"  are blow ins from around the area coming to make there fortune during the time of British control, kinda parallels the Jews of Europe coming in during and after the war, prior to that the original inhabitants both Arab and Jew lived side by side I guess since Roman occupation days and seemingly in peace.

 

Them Palestinians refugees from one of the Arab wars in Jordan tried to over throw the Jordanian king, Palestinians are  also linked with the Muslim Brotherhood who have tried to destabilise Egypt, hence Arab brothers wont let Arab brothers into the Sini, they fear an uprising, they say they have enough off these trouble makers already in the country, the ones in Lebanon are kept in camps again Arab brothers, sound familiar? they are only allowed to leave to go to work, gates shut at 6 pm, kidding, they cannot live/mix into the Lebanese community, I wonder why?  Because these people whom many feel sorry for are troublemakers, everywhere they go they cause trouble.

 

One European country forget who now have criminal data to show these wonderful riotous Palestinians have an alarming high degree of ending up in jail, much much higher than the norm.

 

Another thing people here seem to over look Hamas and Iran and Palestinians are calling this a holy war, in fact everything they do against Israel its a religious war, Bin laden anyone? Do you think they will stop once they have the from the river to the sea land? Islam was created by the sword...read up about it...

 

Anyone really belive the major player as in France etc want this war to stop? No they dont, they say one thing publicly and send bullets and bombs on the next ship out of port, delusional people sucked in by press....why dont they focus on what's going on in the country besides us here, or in Africa a bit more....

 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Njoku said:

Actually most of the "Palestinians"  are blow ins from around the area coming to make there fortune during the time of British control, kinda parallels the Jews of Europe coming in during and after the war, prior to that the original inhabitants both Arab and Jew lived side by side I guess since Roman occupation days and seemingly in peace.

 

Them Palestinians refugees from one of the Arab wars in Jordan tried to over throw the Jordanian king, Palestinians are  also linked with the Muslim Brotherhood who have tried to destabilise Egypt, hence Arab brothers wont let Arab brothers into the Sini, they fear an uprising, they say they have enough off these trouble makers already in the country, the ones in Lebanon are kept in camps again Arab brothers, sound familiar? they are only allowed to leave to go to work, gates shut at 6 pm, kidding, they cannot live/mix into the Lebanese community, I wonder why?  Because these people whom many feel sorry for are troublemakers, everywhere they go they cause trouble.

 

One European country forget who now have criminal data to show these wonderful riotous Palestinians have an alarming high degree of ending up in jail, much much higher than the norm.

 

Another thing people here seem to over look Hamas and Iran and Palestinians are calling this a holy war, in fact everything they do against Israel its a religious war, Bin laden anyone? Do you think they will stop once they have the from the river to the sea land? Islam was created by the sword...read up about it...

 

Anyone really belive the major player as in France etc want this war to stop? No they dont, they say one thing publicly and send bullets and bombs on the next ship out of port, delusional people sucked in by press....why dont they focus on what's going on in the country besides us here, or in Africa a bit more....

 

As you describe, Iran is the key player in all of this.  Without their sponsorship of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other terrorist organizations the situation in the Middle East, and Africa for that matter, would be less chaotic.  Since the mullahs took over Iran has been stoking the fires of religious fanaticism fueling instability in this part of the world.  Nothing will change until the theocracy in Tehran is removed.  The big question is how to accomplish this without major military intervention.

Edited by Hawaiian
Correction
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On 5/29/2024 at 12:18 AM, Njoku said:

Because these people whom many feel sorry for are troublemakers, everywhere they go they cause trouble.

and how many wars around the world have they caused in the past couple hundred years? Yeah, such heinous trouble makers. Did the IDF write that for you?

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