Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[Patong2021]

6 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Also mentioned here.

 

Did US Veto Ukraine Plan to Attack Putin's Navy Parade? What We Know

Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, said during a broadcast on state TV channel Russia-1 that the U.S. intervened in a plot that would have led to a "new escalation."

Russian news outlets, including state-run RT, reported that Ukrainian intelligence services were preparing an assassination attempt on Putin and Belousov at the Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg.

Newsweek couldn't independently verify the reports and has contacted Ukraine's Foreign Ministry for comment by email.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-ukraine-plot-attack-putin-navy-parade-1935134

 

If accurate, then the USA helped avoid the absolute destruction of Ukraine and a spiral in the war.

Had there been an attack on Russia and Putin injured or killed, Russia would have retaliated with overwhelming force, even including tactical nuclear weapons. There would have been a missile barrage that turned much of the nation to dust and debris.  The USA has helped protect the interests of the western world and saved the Ukrainian nation.

[kwonitoy]

 

[Bkk Brian]

7 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

If accurate, then the USA helped avoid the absolute destruction of Ukraine and a spiral in the war.

Had there been an attack on Russia and Putin injured or killed, Russia would have retaliated with overwhelming force, even including tactical nuclear weapons. There would have been a missile barrage that turned much of the nation to dust and debris.  The USA has helped protect the interests of the western world and saved the Ukrainian nation.

Yet its ok for Putin to make numerous assassination attempts on Zelensky. 

 

Inside Russia’s dozens of attempts to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

 

He has every right to do the same as he has every right to strike military targets in Russia. 

 

Zelenskiy Commends Ukrainian Strikes on Military Targets Inside Russia

 

That said, the source is Russian so I do not trust it and have no wish to debate what could be deliberate Russian propaganda. That's exactly what they want.

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

 

Diverting nearly a brigade to launch an assault on Kursk Oblast, which lacks strategic sense, borders on mental disability

 

That reminds me of the scene in that movie about Hitler's last days in the bunker when he was ordering the deployment of units that no longer existed.

[thaibeachlovers]

8 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

If accurate, then the USA helped avoid the absolute destruction of Ukraine and a spiral in the war.

Had there been an attack on Russia and Putin injured or killed, Russia would have retaliated with overwhelming force, even including tactical nuclear weapons. There would have been a missile barrage that turned much of the nation to dust and debris.  The USA has helped protect the interests of the western world and saved the Ukrainian nation.

Hopefully there is still someone with a functioning brain in the US government that is able to make Biden not go too far in his apparent desire to see the demise of Russia regardless of the cost to Ukraine.

[Mavideol]

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Ukrainian forces in major cross-border attack on Russian village, claims Moscow

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-live-joint-033914158.html

 

[Patong2021]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yet its ok for Putin to make numerous assassination attempts on Zelensky. 

 

Inside Russia’s dozens of attempts to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky

 

He has every right to do the same as he has every right to strike military targets in Russia. 

 

Zelenskiy Commends Ukrainian Strikes on Military Targets Inside Russia

 

That said, the source is Russian so I do not trust it and have no wish to debate what could be deliberate Russian propaganda. That's exactly what they want.

 

No, it is not alright for Russia to target Zelenskyy. I believe that western intelligence and security forces have intervened multiple times to warn and to protect Zelenskyy in the past, so the western actions are not unusual.  The  western position is common sense because as I wrote, the Russians would retaliate with a barrage so intense that nothing would be left of Ukraine. Ukrainians might dream of a western reprisal but Western nations would not go to war with Russia over it because the Ukraine  is not worth the risk and the cost at this time.  The Ukrainians should be grateful for the massive injections of aid to date and not push their luck. The aid has been based upon the preservation of Ukraine's sovereignty and more importantly the defense of Europe, not an attack on Russia itself.

 

As the USA has not denied the report, I believe it has some substance. There is nothing to be gained for either the USA or Russia from the report, save for the fact that it presents the USA as a responsible nation that will do the right thing and to see the big picture.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

No, it is not alright for Russia to target Zelenskyy. I believe that western intelligence and security forces have intervened multiple times to warn and to protect Zelenskyy in the past, so the western actions are not unusual.  The  western position is common sense because as I wrote, the Russians would retaliate with a barrage so intense that nothing would be left of Ukraine. Ukrainians might dream of a western reprisal but Western nations would not go to war with Russia over it because the Ukraine  is not worth the risk and the cost at this time.  The Ukrainians should be grateful for the massive injections of aid to date and not push their luck. The aid has been based upon the preservation of Ukraine's sovereignty and more importantly the defense of Europe, not an attack on Russia itself.

 

As the USA has not denied the report, I believe it has some substance. There is nothing to be gained for either the USA or Russia from the report, save for the fact that it presents the USA as a responsible nation that will do the right thing and to see the big picture.

Actually there is plenty for Russia to gain with it propaganda and as for predictions. I don't buy into them

[beautifulthailand99]

53 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Actually there is plenty for Russia to gain with it propaganda and as for predictions. I don't buy into them

Budanov's wife was a warning. With leaders it's MAD - mutually assured destruction.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Budanov's wife was a warning. With leaders it's MAD - mutually assured destruction.

 

 

When all else fails use the MAD rhetoric

[beautifulthailand99]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

When all else fails use the MAD rhetoric

I'm very busy elsewhere so just popping in and out where I can add value.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I'm very busy elsewhere so just popping in and out where I can add value.

Meanwhile its about the war not how busy you are.

[beautifulthailand99]

Sounds like it's chaos on the front with coherent strategy and command breaking down.You know it's BAAAD if even David Axe can't defend this offensive which "borders on mental disability".

 

Pro-Ukrainian Russian Troops In U.S.-Made Stryker Vehicles Just Launched A Pointless Invasion Of Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defenses Crumble For A Want Of Manpower.

Who authorized the Liberty of Russia Legion’s wasteful cross-border attack?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/06/pro-ukrainian-russian-troops-in-us-made-stryker-vehicles-just-launched-a-pointless-invasion-of-russia-meanwhile-ukrainian-defenses-crumble-for-a-want-of-manpower/

 

It’s all very dramatic—and also a shameful waste of precious military resources. At the same time, the Liberty of Russia Legion was mucking around in Sudzha, a town with practically no military value, and over-stretched Ukrainian brigades were retreating from Niu-York, a former Ukrainian stronghold just west of Horlivka in eastern Ukraine.

In Niu-York, “the enemy is applying pressure with a large infantry force, backed by aviation and artillery fire,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported. “The dense urban environment, where enemy infantry are hiding, is an advantage the enemy is exploiting.”

 

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Ukrainian forces in major cross-border attack on Russian village, claims Moscow

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-live-joint-033914158.html

 

See David Axe's Forbe's article I posted.

 

In that context, it’s unforgivable for any Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian commander to waste lives on a raid that, at best, has only fleeting propaganda value. Those hundreds of legionnaires should be defending in the east instead of adventuring in the north.

[Bkk Brian]

Excellent work.

 

Moscow claims Ukraine has launched offensive inside Russia

Moscow said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces attempted one of the largest incursions into Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion, but that its forces managed to fend off the attack.

The Russian defence ministry claimed that “up to 300 troops” from Ukraine’s 22nd mechanised brigade, “supported by 11 tanks and more than 20 armoured combat vehicles” had attacked its border units near Nikolayevo-Daryino and Oleshnya in Kursk region around 8am local time.

https://www.ft.com/content/83ad1e07-19d6-4ae0-b10e-208926fec4eb

 

https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1820990657546350931

[beautifulthailand99]

12 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Excellent work.

 

Moscow claims Ukraine has launched offensive inside Russia

Moscow said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces attempted one of the largest incursions into Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion, but that its forces managed to fend off the attack.

The Russian defence ministry claimed that “up to 300 troops” from Ukraine’s 22nd mechanised brigade, “supported by 11 tanks and more than 20 armoured combat vehicles” had attacked its border units near Nikolayevo-Daryino and Oleshnya in Kursk region around 8am local time.

https://www.ft.com/content/83ad1e07-19d6-4ae0-b10e-208926fec4eb

 

https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1820990657546350931

See above for the analysis of the utter strategic folly of that incursion which point to a breakdown in coherent defence strategy and rogue commanders maybe seeking glory at expense of the overall war aims which are to defend Ukraine and retake territory.So maybe not so much "excellent work" as you put it.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

See above for the analysis of the utter strategic folly of that incursion which point to a breakdown in coherent defence startgey and rogue commanders maybe seeking glory at expense of the overall war aims which are to defend Ukaraine and retake territory.

 

 

See above for the analysis of the utter strategic folly of that incursion which point to a breakdown in coherent defence startgey and rogue commanders maybe seeking glory at expense of the overall war aims which are to defend Ukaraine and retake territory.

 

Nah, 

[tgw]

2 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

No, it is not alright for Russia to target Zelenskyy. I believe that western intelligence and security forces have intervened multiple times to warn and to protect Zelenskyy in the past, so the western actions are not unusual.  The  western position is common sense because as I wrote, the Russians would retaliate with a barrage so intense that nothing would be left of Ukraine. Ukrainians might dream of a western reprisal but Western nations would not go to war with Russia over it because the Ukraine  is not worth the risk and the cost at this time.  The Ukrainians should be grateful for the massive injections of aid to date and not push their luck. The aid has been based upon the preservation of Ukraine's sovereignty and more importantly the defense of Europe, not an attack on Russia itself.

 

As the USA has not denied the report, I believe it has some substance. There is nothing to be gained for either the USA or Russia from the report, save for the fact that it presents the USA as a responsible nation that will do the right thing and to see the big picture.

 

you got the wrong idea.

the West does not want Putin's regime to collapse, because if it did, Ruzzia would probably breakup into smaller pieces, each with its own warlord and its own nuclear weapons...

So the West protects Putin's life and will ensure a government transition in Ruzzia that preserves its statehood.

[beautifulthailand99]

15 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

you got the wrong idea.

the West does not want Putin's regime to collapse, because if it did, Ruzzia would probably breakup into smaller pieces, each with its own warlord and its own nuclear weapons...

So the West protects Putin's life and will ensure a government transition in Ruzzia that preserves its statehood.

Correct he is the least worse option - a failed state with nuclear weapons warring with each other should frighten the most hardened of hearts. He maybe bad , indeed his is but he is not mad.

[Bkk Brian]

Its not over yet. Tass is reporting the fighting continues and...............

 

"Information from Russian sources about activity in the Kursk region. The information is unverified. However, clearly it is not yet possible to contain the offensive - especially due to the abundance of Ukrainian air defense, which threatens Russian UAVs and aircraft. There is also information about the seizure of the gas measuring station in Sudzha by the Ukrainian liberation forces."

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1821084230325301650

 

Kursk oblast. A group of russian PoWs being escorted by Ukrainian army.

 

[Roo Island]

13 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Hopefully there is still someone with a functioning brain in the US government that is able to make Biden not go too far in his apparent desire to see the demise of Russia regardless of the cost to Ukraine.

The desire of the US government is to prevent needless civilian killings by Russia. Nothing to do with the demise of Russia, though Putin is bringing this upon himself.

[Roo Island]

10 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

No, it is not alright for Russia to target Zelenskyy. I believe that western intelligence and security forces have intervened multiple times to warn and to protect Zelenskyy in the past, so the western actions are not unusual.  The  western position is common sense because as I wrote, the Russians would retaliate with a barrage so intense that nothing would be left of Ukraine. Ukrainians might dream of a western reprisal but Western nations would not go to war with Russia over it because the Ukraine  is not worth the risk and the cost at this time.  The Ukrainians should be grateful for the massive injections of aid to date and not push their luck. The aid has been based upon the preservation of Ukraine's sovereignty and more importantly the defense of Europe, not an attack on Russia itself.

 

As the USA has not denied the report, I believe it has some substance. There is nothing to be gained for either the USA or Russia from the report, save for the fact that it presents the USA as a responsible nation that will do the right thing and to see the big picture.

Correct me if I am wrong, but if Russia uses nuclear weapons they are toast.

[Patong2021]

27 minutes ago, Roo Island said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but if Russia uses nuclear weapons they are toast.

 

I believe your conclusion is incorrect. The EU will not agree to the use of nuclear weapons unless its own security is at risk. Nor will western nations with nuclear weapon capability put their own nation at risk of nuclear war to retaliate on behalf of Ukraine. The populations of Germany, USA, UK and France would rise up in violent protest if their countries did this.  Some EU countries like Belgium, are ready to capitulate to Russian demands now.

[RayC]

24 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

 Some EU countries like Belgium, are ready to capitulate to Russian demands now.

 

Do you have a link supporting that contention?

[Patong2021]

14 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

Do you have a link supporting that contention?

 

Thank you for your inquiry. There have been surveys such as this from the PEW Research Org. that you can look up.  Unfortunately the most recent data released last month did not include Belgium, perhaps because it is not a particularly important or influential nation when it comes to international  affairs..

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/07/02/confidence-in-zelenskyy-and-support-for-ukraine/

 

The decline  in support was documented earlier this year  https://www.brusselstimes.com/925956/two-years-into-the-war-belgian-support-for-ukrainian-aid-wavers and broadened to include allegations of support for Russia from two Belgian political parties; the NVA party and the PVDA party.  The allegations follow on from the study released last March by The European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS)  an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization, based in Brussels, for research on and analysis of challenges posed by increasing political populism which documented The impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on ties between the Vlaams Belang in Belgium and the Putin regime.

 

You may find the term capitulation too strong. Perhaps it is. However, I find the word most appropriate for the Belgian state and its history since its conduct in WWII and then in colonial Africa. The evil it did in the Congo in 1960 following what is described as its  "capitulation" combined with its legacy in Rwanda and Burundi serve as an indication of what Belgium is capable of doing when public opinion shifts.

[Roo Island]

1 hour ago, Patong2021 said:

 

I believe your conclusion is incorrect. The EU will not agree to the use of nuclear weapons unless its own security is at risk. Nor will western nations with nuclear weapon capability put their own nation at risk of nuclear war to retaliate on behalf of Ukraine. The populations of Germany, USA, UK and France would rise up in violent protest if their countries did this.  Some EU countries like Belgium, are ready to capitulate to Russian demands now.

Perhaps the EU, but not the US.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-ukraine/index.html

 

In late 2022, the US began “preparing rigorously” for Russia potentially striking Ukraine with a nuclear weapon, in what would have been the first nuclear attack in war since the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki nearly eighty years before, two senior administration officials told CNN.

[TedG]

On 8/6/2024 at 1:39 PM, Patong2021 said:

 

If accurate, then the USA helped avoid the absolute destruction of Ukraine and a spiral in the war.

Had there been an attack on Russia and Putin injured or killed, Russia would have retaliated with overwhelming force, even including tactical nuclear weapons. There would have been a missile barrage that turned much of the nation to dust and debris.  The USA has helped protect the interests of the western world and saved the Ukrainian nation.

Russia won't pop off nukes.   Anyway, if Russia could use overwhelming force, they would have used it.   Russia is a paper tiger.  

[Mavideol]

Russia says Ukrainian troops crossed into its territory and launched ‘massive attack’

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-ukrainian-troops-crossed-113002264.html

 

[Mavideol]

they are doing what Russia did, that's called payback  555

Russia Claims Ukraine Carrying Out Incursion in Kursk Region

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-claims-ukraine-carrying-incursion-142047259.html

 

[Mavideol]

now Russian (skeptical non-believers) citizens know how it feels to be invaded

Intense battles after major cross-border raid by Ukraine into Russia’s Kursk region

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/intense-battles-cross-border-raid-162040079.html