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Posted

"He plans to lead Reform UK not only through the upcoming election but for the next five years"

But probably won't last 5 years.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

So what are the odds for Farage in Clayton?

4/7 currently.

All the resources of the company (ReformUK) will be used to attempt to get him the win in Clacton. It is a very depressing, tired town full of moaning old right wingers - ideal hunting ground for his poisonous views.

At the last election the tory got 72.3% so Niggle could win with 37% of the vote.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

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Posted
16 minutes ago, stevenl said:

From https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gg66pm8ylo.

"The constituency was previously held by UKIP after former Tory MP Douglas Carswell defected to the party and triggered a by-election, which he won.

More than 70% of voters in the constituency backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum – the fifth highest figure in the UK.

In 2017 Conservative Giles Watling unseated UKIP, gaining the seat with a majority of more than 15,000.

By 2019, with no UKIP or Brexit Party candidate standing, Mr Watling’s majority grew to 24,702. He is defending the seat again in July for the Tories."

 

I would say he has an excellent chance.

The 2010 result is probably closer to voter participation. Then and now there is no BREXIT consideration.

 

https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3418/election/19

Posted
11 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Looks like the left are panicking. 😃

 

Given what he did with his election to the EU Parliament with the Bexit Party, I'm not surprised.

 

I suspect a lot of people disillusioned with Labour/Conservatives who may not have voted will now make the journey to the polling station, even if it is a protest vote. 

 

This certainly makes the election more interesting, it would have been a snooze fest with Starmer and Sunak 'battling' it out. Imagine what could happen in the event of a hung parliament. A Tory/Reform coalition?

 
How you determine ‘the left is panicking’ is a complete mystery.

 

LibDens becoming the opposition is a more likely outcome.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/uk-general-election-poll-tracker-conservative-labour/

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Posted

Not sure how voters in Clacton will react to this. The danger for Farage is that they will see him as a chancer who changed his mind as a result of events in the USA. 

 

 

 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

A lazy analysis.

 

People who were fed up with the Tories might have held their nose and voted Labour. Now, many will vote Reform instead. 

 

It could also force the Tories back to the right of centre, gaining them more votes from traditional Conservative voters. 

 

Farage got Brexit over the line and even got elected to the EU Parliament with a brand new party. He should not be underestimated. Expect lots of childish insults from the left (as this thread demonstrates). 

Hope springs eternal Jonny.

 

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