Baht becoming ridiculously strong

[WhatsNext]

50 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

It is the value of  USD that has fallen. See the DXY graph below which shows the value of USD. Then look at USD/THB over the same period.

 

If you look at all currencies you can see that the THB is on the up. It's not only up against the USD but all major currencies : USD, EUR, GBP, AUSD and so on. Otherwise all those would have lost value at the same time ?

[connda]

On 9/7/2024 at 11:36 PM, stoner said:

 

buy the rumor... sell the news.

 

BTFD.

[chiang mai]

3 hours ago, WhatsNext said:

 

If you look at all currencies you can see that the THB is on the up. It's not only up against the USD but all major currencies : USD, EUR, GBP, AUSD and so on. Otherwise all those would have lost value at the same time ?

No. USD/THB is a direct rate, GBP/THB is a cross rate that is calculated from USD/THB x USD/GBP so they don't move in the same direction at the same pace.

 

EUR/USD is a direct rate.

 

AUD is dependent on the Chinese economy and is a proxy for RMB, USD has little influence.

 

 

[WhatsNext]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

No. USD/THB is a direct rate, GBP/THB is a cross rate that is calculated from USD/THB x USD/GBP so they don't move in the same direction at the same pace.

 

EUR/USD is a direct rate.

 

So just for my understanding and maybe others that have the same question : 

USD/THB has a certain market value, then the EUR and GBP among others are just calculated from their rates vs the USD ? That's weird. Still means that everything else must be going down since otherwise the USD would be a lot lower against the EUR/GBP

 

My head is spinning. 

[chiang mai]

15 minutes ago, WhatsNext said:

 

So just for my understanding and maybe others that have the same question : 

USD/THB has a certain market value, then the EUR and GBP among others are just calculated from their rates vs the USD ? That's weird. Still means that everything else must be going down since otherwise the USD would be a lot lower against the EUR/GBP

 

My head is spinning. 

No. Read again what I wrote, EUR/THB is a direct relationship, GBP/THB is not, it's a cross rate involving USD.

[BuddyPish]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

I believe it's called timing. What moves the markets? 10 fools meet and 6 of them decide that a sack of potatoes will cost 50% more soon. The beginning of a Bull Market. Or the other way around.

 

Supply and demand, but not necessarily when it comes to "split-second" trading. Or "running the stops"? You?

Nevermind:  I am genuinely interested. An increasing number of people seem to use algorithems, but I never got in contact with a person that actually applies it. So, you are my man.

Or, to make a long story short: How do you personally profit from algorisms in your daily trading?

 

 

I don't use algorithms in my trading but time is the most important aspect of what I do because the algorithm that moves price does so more noticeably at certain times of the day so I know to go in and look for setups at those times.

 

 

 

[TroubleandGrumpy]

 

Clearly there was a quick and large drop in the value of the USD that triggered the drop in the value of the USD against most currencies (but not all).  But the question remains, why? Look at the long term comparisons over 12 mths and 5, 10, 25 years. The recent drop was extremely fast and extremely quick - bigger than during Covid - why??  Something happened that we do not know about - that is what I would like to know. 

[stupidfarang]

On 9/6/2024 at 12:05 PM, Cameroni said:

 

It's very simple. All the currencies of the world are valued against the dollar. If the dollar is strong, the other currency falls. If the dollar is weak, the other currency goes up, unless there are very particular reasons that prevent this. At the moment it is absolutely clear that the Fed will weaken the dollar, because they have said so and given big hints this will happen. They will cut interest rates, so this will weaken the dollar.

 

As a result the dollar is weakening at the moment. Therefore the Baht is going up. 

 

This will get worse, because when the interests rates are cut the dollar will fall more, so the Baht will go up further.

An next is the new Tax on expats income.

[Cameroni]

1 hour ago, BuddyPish said:

 

I don't use algorithms in my trading but time is the most important aspect of what I do because the algorithm that moves price does so more noticeably at certain times of the day so I know to go in and look for setups at those times.

 

 

 

What would you consider a setup, price action after news?

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

 

Clearly there was a quick and large drop in the value of the USD that triggered the drop in the value of the USD against most currencies (but not all).  But the question remains, why? Look at the long term comparisons over 12 mths and 5, 10, 25 years. The recent drop was extremely fast and extremely quick - bigger than during Covid - why??  Something happened that we do not know about - that is what I would like to know. 

The fall in value of USD wasn't huge and it wasn't that fast, it looks like normal correction stuff to me.

 

[Cameroni]

Interestingly the Bangkok post predicted the strength of the Thai Baht in Jan 2023.

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2474359/baht-tipped-to-have-a-strong-year

[maesariang]

23 hours ago, chiang mai said:

Gold is priced in USD.

 

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price

Which makes it cheaper to buy with a falling dollar. So rate cuts can boost gold.

[TroubleandGrumpy]

8 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

The fall in value of USD wasn't huge and it wasn't that fast, it looks like normal correction stuff to me.

 

I think you are right but as it looks here it was sudden and extreme.

 

And yet in terms of USD to AUD it was not as bad.

 

 

And even more the AUD to BAHT also crashed 

 

And check it out over 5 years – quicker drop than the Covid19

 

 

[chiang mai]

5 hours ago, WhatsNext said:

 

So just for my understanding and maybe others that have the same question : 

USD/THB has a certain market value, then the EUR and GBP among others are just calculated from their rates vs the USD ? That's weird. Still means that everything else must be going down since otherwise the USD would be a lot lower against the EUR/GBP

 

My head is spinning. 

Let me try to explain.

 

The value of USD is determined by a basket of major currencies and shown on the Dollar Index (DXY)

 

USD is at the top of the FOREX tree. Reserve and major currencies of the world have a one to one or direct relationship with USD so that when USD changes in value, those other major currencies change in value also. This gives us the major currency pairs such as GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and so on, all of which include USD in each pair.

 

Minor currency pairs are the next level down the FOREX tree and they include pairs such as EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/CHF etc. The minor pairs are formed between currencies that have a direct one to one relationship with USD but exclude USD in the calculation.

 

Last is the minor pairs or exotics and this includes USD/SGD, USD/HKD, USD/THB, GBP/INR. These are direct pairings between a major currency and a minor currency.

 

Since not every minor currency has a direct relationship with every major currency, cross rates allow a minor or exotic currency such as THB, to be valued against a major currency  such as GBP, via the value of USD.

 

What you can see from the above is that whenever USD changes value, every other currency in the FOREX tree changes value also, to a lesser of greater degree, based on its direct or indirect relationship with USD. In the case of minor cross rate such as GBP/THB, that is calculated by multiplying USD/THB by USD/GBP. That means the impact of any value movement in USD, on GBP/THB, can be diluted by counter movements in both GBP and/or THB. Similarly, any movement in THB value can be countered by opposing movements in GBP and/or USD. All of which tries to explain that just because USD changes value to one degree, it may change value against other currencies to a completely different degree.

 

 

[Celsius]

CAD Tanking a lot. So is AUD

[ikke1959]

Understandable. Thailand is manipulating the THB and with an more expensive THB they will get more money as things are being more expensive.. So at he end of the ear everything looks well but in fact it is all made up. The Government will shout look how much percent the economy increased by this government, but in fact it is manipulation  and not the reality

[BuddyPish]

On 9/10/2024 at 2:19 PM, Cameroni said:

What would you consider a setup, price action after news?

 

Search Youtube for ICT OTE Optimal Trade Entry.

 

[Celsius]

Are Canadians enjoying the tank?

 

Man, I feel so stupid transferring almost all our savings to Canadian toilet currency.

 

 

[david555]

more plunging for the euro..... 36,93 Thb say's google just now for 1 euro

 

those on the monthly transfers for your visa extensions .... check if your exchange rate sum is still enough , as I.O. has no pity if a single baht short ...

Edited Friday at 07:19 AM by david555

[ChaiyaTH]

15 minutes ago, david555 said:

more plunging for the euro..... 36,93 Thb say's google just now for 1 euro

 

those on the monthly transfers for your visa extensions .... check if your exchange rate sum is still enough , as I.O. has no pity if a single baht short ...

One can also write drama for no reason. It has been way lower in recent years than it is now, in fact it is barely down like 2-3 baht of a recent high. That's like 2-3K baht difference compared to 5-7k baht difference before, per 1000 euro.

 

Most people being able to do extensions based on monthly pensions also always average to get at least 1250 a month so they are relatively safe in all fluctuations. But it sucks regardless, I basically have free rent at 40 per euro compared to this.

Edited Friday at 07:26 AM by ChaiyaTH

[david555]

10 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

One can also write drama for no reason. It has been way lower in recent years than it is now, in fact it is barely down like 2-3 baht of a recent high. That's like 2-3K baht difference compared to 5-7k baht difference before, per 1000 euro.

 

Most people being able to do extensions based on monthly pensions also always average to get at least 1250 a month so they are relatively safe in all fluctuations. 

you are right for peanuts money , but just calculate if bringing / transferring 800k for ext. reason .....!

and mostly the monthly transfer guy,s take it already as sharp as possible ....., so could face a surprise now

with your example of 1250 you do not reach the 65000 baht any more in dollar or GBP or euro

Edited Friday at 07:35 AM by david555

[swissie]

On 9/10/2024 at 7:39 AM, BuddyPish said:

 

I don't use algorithms in my trading but time is the most important aspect of what I do because the algorithm that moves price does so more noticeably at certain times of the day so I know to go in and look for setups at those times.

 

 

 

I think I am starting to understand.

 

On a Saturday, shortly before closing, due to "expiration" of certain foods, prices are reduced. Also: Shortly before closing time at the bar, the remaining ladies become more friendly.

I used to call this "statistics" in combination with "common sense". In the future I will call it "algorisms".

 

[swissie]

On 9/10/2024 at 8:19 AM, TroubleandGrumpy said:

 

Clearly there was a quick and large drop in the value of the USD that triggered the drop in the value of the USD against most currencies (but not all).  But the question remains, why? Look at the long term comparisons over 12 mths and 5, 10, 25 years. The recent drop was extremely fast and extremely quick - bigger than during Covid - why??  Something happened that we do not know about - that is what I would like to know. 

Let's not forget, the Central Banks are major "currency traders". Depending on the situation, the may want to strenghten or weaken their "home currency".

Of course, they produce their balance-sheets. But that only reflects what they were doing in the recent past. What they are doing today can only be guessed.

I know only one thing. The US Democrats as well as the Republicans want the Dollar lower.

 

[swissie]

On 9/10/2024 at 9:35 AM, maesariang said:

Which makes it cheaper to buy with a falling dollar. So rate cuts can boost gold.

If only Gold and the Dollar would move in an inverted tandem. Tick by tick so to speak.

Gold may remain "stable" while the $ keeps declining. Causing grief if your home currency is not the US$.

 

[Silencer]

My home currency is the US$. My non-financial solution for all the ups-downs of the exchange rates is this. It was easy to remember (and calculate) when the dollar to baht exchange rate was near 30 during one of my pre retirement trips.. So, for many many years after that, up to today, I have used the 30:1 ratio for rough calculations for large purchases, and always come out ahead in what the actual USD cost was. When over 35 or 36...thats a major large transfer signal (last transfer in July at 36.5). This way I dont get worked up between the ups and down between the 31-35 exchange rate. This strategy might work for others (set your own bottom number that works for you) and it will save some heartache during the swings. 

[OJAS]

On 9/10/2024 at 1:33 PM, stupidfarang said:

An next is the new Tax on expats income.

 

The ironical thing is that the more the THB's value rockets against most Western currencies, the correspondingly less the TRD will be able to screw most of us for tax in THB terms!

 

[BuddyPish]

22 hours ago, david555 said:

more plunging for the euro..... 36,93 Thb say's google just now for 1 euro

 

those on the monthly transfers for your visa extensions .... check if your exchange rate sum is still enough , as I.O. has no pity if a single baht short ...

 

Well, the ECB cut interest rates so this was foreseeable.
The problem is, they're only just getting started with the rate cutting cycle so expect more weakness in western currencies going forward.

[TroubleandGrumpy]

On 9/13/2024 at 10:55 PM, swissie said:

Let's not forget, the Central Banks are major "currency traders". Depending on the situation, the may want to strenghten or weaken their "home currency".

Of course, they produce their balance-sheets. But that only reflects what they were doing in the recent past. What they are doing today can only be guessed.

I know only one thing. The US Democrats as well as the Republicans want the Dollar lower.

 

Yes indeed - I wonder what they did - maybe they bought up a load to push the price up - plus change in Govt? 

All the main currencies have dropped significantly and quickly against the Baht - it is not just the USD as some are saying.

 

[CallumWK]

Anyone read this yet?

 

https://www.pattayamail.com/thailandnews/thailand-failing-to-attract-sufficient-investment-usd-at-47-baht-vat-at-10-as-target-472329?fbclid=IwY2xjawFTik9leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHYfHGxruzHCrZ7D0u7ZAcs7ksxObynYai8JSWqKd37ULelWylzU_1do_CQ_aem_m_FR1BdCgRi4ZVCGLWtvwQ

 

Thailand failing to attract sufficient investment, USD at 47 baht, VAT at 10% as target

 

Despite Thailand’s favorable location, infrastructure, and agricultural potential, Pichai noted that the country is failing to attract sufficient investment. He suggested that the Thai baht should ideally be at 47 baht per USD to support exports and bolster economic growth. The current rate is about 34 baht per USD, implying a potential devaluation of over 38% to reach the target.

[NativeBob]

On 9/7/2024 at 6:34 AM, dddave said:

You can draw up to 400,000 baht off your deposit 90 days after issuance of the extension. It must be fully replenished at least 60 days prior to next renewal.

Thanks for clarification. I've been told scary stories about those "90+60 days in a sandbox" - seems that 365-(90+60)=215 is quite healthy relieve to me.