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Former President Donald Trump dropped below a 40 percent chance of an election victory for the first time on Tuesday, according to a forecast by a major polling aggregator.

 

FiveThirtyEight's election forecast gave the Republican candidate a 39 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, after a slate of strong polling for Vice President Kamala Harris boosted her odds to greater than 60 percent.

 

Previously, Trump had been performing close to the margin of error between the two candidates. When the model first relaunched following the replacement of President Joe Biden, it gave Trump a 41 percent chance of winning, which was rising steadily before the ABC debate on September 10.

 

(more)

 

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fivethirtyeight-polling-election-forecast-1954958

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

 

 

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