Baht's Biggest Surge Since 1998 Poses Risk to Tourism And Exports

[BuddyPish]

If the strengthening baht does affect tourism, it'll mostly be that from western countries and, frankly, the Thais seem to care more about visitors from this part of the world . . . India, China, Malaysia etc. They don't seem to complain anywhere near as much as farangs

[Jim Blue]

How does Thailand stack up on the McDonalds index?

[TroubleandGrumpy]

37 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Yes, every day for the past 21 years.

You may think you already have that now but a Baht at 45 would mean way more expensive costs.

OK - so you do agree that prices/costs here now are high and they have never been this high before.

 

I dont agree your opinion that those prices/costs will increase even more if the Baht falls.  

[Luuk Chaai]

1 hour ago, edwinchester said:

So who did you thank for 30 bht to the dollar when Trump left office?

 

duhhhhhh   the Chinese

[chiang mai]

Just now, TroubleandGrumpy said:

OK - so you do agree that prices/costs here now are high and they have never been this high before.

 

I dont agree your opinion that those prices/costs will increase even more if the Baht falls.  

Of course I agree that prices are higher now than they have been in the past, they are in most countries in most economies.....prices rarely fall on a sustainable basis.

 

I'm sorry you don't agree that if the Baht weakens against USD that imports, especially oil (which is priced in USD) will cost more, what can I say!

[BuddyPish]

5 hours ago, cedel said:

A high /strong THB + a law to tax foreigners living in Thailand more than 6 months per year (also probably not only on remittances but on their WORLDWIDE total income) and you will have less and less retired expats in Thailand, they will be moving to Malaysia, The Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia or simply go back to their home country for good! 

 

I genuinely don't think the Thai authorities would be particularly bothered by that considering the current financial criteria for retirement visas/extensions. They haven't raised the 800K THB for over 15 years even though both inflation, exchange rates with the baht and living costs have soared. They'd be quietly satisfied with a natural decline in numbers brought on by lack of funds.

 

At the end of the day, retirees aren't the golden goose they've told themselves they are.
They're not a central pillar of the Thai economy by any stretch of the imagination. 

Edited 4 hours ago by BuddyPish

[TroubleandGrumpy]

37 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Do you have any links to prove that claim, because my search results say the opposite.

Only Philippines has a special visa that exempt from paying the tax, but I believe Thailand has a similar visa

Do the research yourself - here are some quick links to start you off.  I will not spend hours finding them all again.  I decided to decide which one was best (tax and Visa etc) if/when the decision is made to leave Thailand because of the taxation issues (and indeed their probable move to make having approved Thai health insurance compulsory).

 

If you want full and detailed in-writing explanations and full referenced details of my many months of research - send 20K Baht to my bank account.  Yes it takes a long time to find it - they keep changing websites and info locations (as below).

 

Is your foreign-sourced income exempted from tax? (pwc.com)

Bureau of Internal Revenue (bir.gov.ph)  For some reasons Philippines Tax Code - Section 2 Para D has been moved.

Income Tax in Vietnam for Foreigners | All You Need to Know (premiatnc.com)

Mahanakorn Partners | Law Firm, Accounting & Tax Advisory

Indonesia Tax Guide 2023-2024 (deloitte.com)

Edited 3 hours ago by TroubleandGrumpy

[TroubleandGrumpy]

7 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

 

I genuinely don't think the Thai authorities would be particularly bothered by that considering the current financial criteria for retirement visas/extensions. They haven't raised the 800K THB for over 15 years even though both inflation, exchange rates with the baht and living costs have soared. They'd be quietly satisfied with a natural decline in numbers brought on by lack of funds.

 

At the end of the day, retirees aren't the golden goose they've told themselves they are.
They're not a central pillar of the Thai economy by any stretch of the imagination. 

True - BUT - Expats marry/befriend a LOT of Thai girls/whatever and help their families.

PLUS - Expats buy a lot of Apartments - or buy Houses for the Thai Wife - and cars/bikes.

AND - Even if there is only 150K of them here (still?) that equates to about 150 Billion Baht - or about 3 million 'quality' Tourists (as per TAT stats). If there are 300K it totals 300 Billion Baht or 6 million quality tourists.  Expats are not worth keeping here year after year after year???

[TroubleandGrumpy]

12 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Of course I agree that prices are higher now than they have been in the past, they are in most countries in most economies.....prices rarely fall on a sustainable basis.

 

I'm sorry you don't agree that if the Baht weakens against USD that imports, especially oil (which is priced in USD) will cost more, what can I say!

try this - if the USD or AUD increases in 'value' by 20% then that means those with USD or AUD have more money with which to pay for things in Thailand. Prices going up by 20% of the USD/AUD exchange rates change that much?? No mate.  

You are seeing it from the wrong perspective - I am talking about my money being 'worth' much less than it would be if the Baht was not so high. 

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

try this - if the USD or AUD increases in 'value' by 20% then that means those with USD or AUD have more money with which to pay for things in Thailand. Prices going up by 20% of the USD/AUD exchange rates change that much?? No mate.  

You are seeing it from the wrong perspective - I am talking about my money being 'worth' much less than it would be if the Baht was not so high. 

If you say so.

[BuddyPish]

1 minute ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

True - BUT - Expats marry/befriend a LOT of Thai girls/whatever and help their families.

PLUS - Expats buy a lot of Apartments - or buy Houses for the Thai Wife - and cars/bikes.

AND - Even if there is only 150K of them here (still?) that equates to about 150 Billion Baht - or about 3 million 'quality' Tourists (as per TAT stats). If there are 300K it totals 300 Billion Baht or 6 million quality tourists.  Expats are not worth keeping here year after year after year???

 

True but the migrants buying apartments, houses, cars, bikes etc aren't the ones who are going to be leaving on account of exchange rates.
Of course Thailand benefits from having migrants live here but my point is that they're not crucial to the economy.

[TroubleandGrumpy]

2 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

 

True but the migrants buying apartments, houses, cars, bikes etc aren't the ones who are going to be leaving on account of exchange rates.
Of course Thailand benefits from having migrants live here but my point is that they're not crucial to the economy.

Yes I agreed already they are not crucial - but they are worth it IMO.

[PJ71]

1 hour ago, CANSIAM said:

you'll be in a pub or club that gets raided after smokin 2-3 gaggers, quick failed urine test, locked up with keys thrown away or depending on your bank balance.......😉

What are you on about?

 

Obviously completely clueless....

[itsari]

5 hours ago, cedel said:

Look at the price of a San Miguel in the Pillippines in a 7/11,if I remember good the equivalent of 25 baht.. how much is the same beer with the high taxes and duties in Thailand? I think around 60 B! 

Lack of competition creates the high price of beer in Thailand.

 

[CallumWK]

33 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Do the research yourself - here are some quick links to start you off.  I will not spend hours finding them all again.  I decided to decide which one was best (tax and Visa etc) if/when the decision is made to leave Thailand because of the taxation issues (and indeed their probable move to make having approved Thai health insurance compulsory).

 

If you want full and detailed in-writing explanations and full referenced details of my many months of research - send 20K Baht to my bank account.  Yes it takes a long time to find it - they keep changing websites and info locations (as below).

 

Is your foreign-sourced income exempted from tax? (pwc.com)

Bureau of Internal Revenue (bir.gov.ph)  For some reasons Philippines Tax Code - Section 2 Para D has been moved.

Income Tax in Vietnam for Foreigners | All You Need to Know (premiatnc.com)

Mahanakorn Partners | Law Firm, Accounting & Tax Advisory

Indonesia Tax Guide 2023-2024 (deloitte.com)

 

Great links man, but you thought I didn't them already?

 

Now FYI, not a single one of those links even mention income from retirement, much less that it is exempt from tax.

All those countries rules are more or less similar to the Thai ones.

 

From the multiple tax threads on this forum, I figured already that you choose your username correctly, as you have actually no idea what you are talking about, and your posts are nothing more than trouble making, disinformation.

 

I gonna refrain from reading your drivel in the future.

[Thaiman1]

Tourism has been down since February. The lowering of the dollar should not make a difference 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, itsari said:

Agree that wages are out of sync with cost of living wich brings things back to the beer is too expensive for the majority of Thais.

I have to disagree.. 

beer is not expensive, it is at a reasonable price.

The fact that many Thais cannot afford it does not make it expensive... 

[lapamita]

i dont see

7 hours ago, ChasingTheSun said:

The baht is still 10% weaker vs USD from 2021.

 

just about the average fx rate vs USD over the last ten years.

 

its a sign that the Thai economy is relatively resilient compared to some weaker neighbors.

 

 

 

 

i dont see that the economy is resilient.

 

its a shift in USD index  and Carrytrades

 

Regional peers  and oversea Emerging country curencys,as well the euro, all increase  against USD , with the sharpest increase in JPY 15% and all other gaining btw 5-10%.

when you compare THB to all currencys exp. USD you see nearly all the same , 

 

lets see if its a major cyclical change in USD index , i hope ,but i doubt

[itsari]

17 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

I have to disagree.. 

beer is not expensive, it is at a reasonable price.

The fact that many Thais cannot afford it does not make it expensive... 

Lack of competition creates a high price of beer in Thailand.

Stitch up between the Thai government and Thai beverages company.

[Keep Right]

The biggest risk is to the low class Chang drinking expats that ride motorbikes in Thailand. The rise in the baht will put a crimp into their weekly beer allotment. These expats might now have to move from a 50 meter dump down to a 38 meter dump on Soi Pothole.

[CANSIAM]

1 hour ago, Bday Prang said:

Off topic but I will reply,     The police were warned off hassling people for cannabis possession just before the change in legislation after they tried to make an example of an elderly person who was "caught" with a very miserable example of a cannabis plant in their garden.    Now considering that there are an estimated 10,000 cannabis shops openly supplying what must amount to millions of recreational users. how many arrests for cannabis possession  in the last couple of years are you able  to provide links to   in order to back up your claim  ?     don't rush  I have all day 

Give it 50=60 more days, it'll be illegal again......

[Lorry]

35 minutes ago, lapamita said:

i dont see

i dont see that the economy is resilient.

 

its a shift in USD index  and Carrytrades

 

Regional peers  and oversea Emerging country curencys,as well the euro, all increase  against USD , with the sharpest increase in JPY 15% and all other gaining btw 5-10%.

when you compare THB to all currencys exp. USD you see nearly all the same , 

 

lets see if its a major cyclical change in USD index , i hope ,but i doubt

THB is up against EUR by more than 5%

Also up against some other Asian currencies

Edited 2 hours ago by Lorry

[wensiensheng]

8 hours ago, Luuk Chaai said:

Wise is currently @ 32.92   ouch !

oh.   and the Fed.. did already drop the rate..

and who can we thank for this ?

https://www.bidenomics.com/

 

Thanks for the totally uninformed comment. You may wish to reflect on the fact that the USD to baht rate has now returned to the levels prevailing prior to President Biden taking office. Remember those days?

[BuddyPish]

8 hours ago, Luuk Chaai said:

Wise is currently @ 32.92   ouch !

oh.   and the Fed.. did already drop the rate..

and who can we thank for this ?

https://www.bidenomics.com/

 

 

Clueless

[Hardcastle P]

Finally the penny drops Thailand is no longer the home of honey ,good value holidays.

Put this on the top of the cost of air fairs and you can forget bumper numbers of tourists. 

[BuddyPish]

13 minutes ago, Hardcastle P said:

Finally the penny drops Thailand is no longer the home of honey ,good value holidays.

Put this on the top of the cost of air fairs and you can forget bumper numbers of tourists. 

 

Air fares are pretty reasonable from India, China, Korea, Japan, the Middle East etc. 

No sign of a let up in visitors from these countries and you don't hear them whining about exchange rates because they have money

[Celsius]

7 minutes ago, BuddyPish said:

 

Air fares are pretty reasonable from India, China, Korea, Japan, the Middle East etc. 

No sign of a let up in visitors from these countries and you don't hear them whining about exchange rates because they have money

 

Zero dollar tours are not some made up concept. My friend from Europe is coming to visit thailand on his 600usd a month salary.....so I don't think they have money.

 

Some toura are cheap as chips.

[Chivas]

7 hours ago, Bday Prang said:

Strangely I remember things a little differently .  I was getting 90+ baht to the pound in 1998 but  before that it was around 40

Am I "confused"  or was I dreaming?

 

Yes the terminology  in OP's was all arse about face

I thought excatly the same as you

[818Pilot]

3 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

Thais seem to care more about visitors from this part of the world . . . India, China, Malaysia etc. They don't seem to complain anywhere near as much as farangs

You do know that “Farang” literally means foreigner, so people from India, China or anywhere else outside of Thailand are Farangs 

[chiang mai]

21 minutes ago, 818Pilot said:

You do know that “Farang” literally means foreigner, so people from India, China or anywhere else outside of Thailand are Farangs 

Not true. Farang refers to white Westerner, other Thai names refer to specific nationalities, eg Chin and Jepun.

Edited 49 minutes ago by chiang mai