Analysts Predict Baht Decline if Trump Wins US Presidency

[Talon]

5 hours ago, G_Money said:

Look up in sky!  Is it a bird?  No!

 

Is it a plane?  No!

 

The sky is falling!  Again.

 

If a baht or two determines your financial well being in Thailand, one has bigger issues.

 

Yes, those who live on a shoestring and whine about a 5 baht difference in beer prices have big issues.

[digger70]

Analysts Predict Baht Decline if Trump Wins US Presidency

 

Many of us would like to see that the Thb depreciates to the level that  we got before  like  say  2012 we were getting 33 Thb per AUS $ 

Now we get Thb  22 per AUS $

Problable will never see that again.

[Deez]

6 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

 

How are rate cuts supposed to support the dollar? Why does K Bank reckon that Trump will spend more than the Dems?

 

Hopeless analysis. 

They will try anything to make a Trump win look negative for everyone.

[TheFishman1]

Sean has to spend more than the Democrats look what he spends for his orange face and his hairdos

[dinsdale]

I've read all the above posts and everyone has missed the the point that a Trump victory could see a strengthening of the US dollar and as such the baht will weaken against it. 

[RichardColeman]

The strength of the baht essentially means that my income has gone down £100 a month in recent months. Unless that gets better my tenant is in for a real shock next year !

 

I see many Americans on here and many people saying how they want Harris to win due to a hatred of Trump - be interesting to know if those saying this are actually residing here on in the states. Voting for your fellow americans back home to live under a lefty utopia seems selfish to me

[soalbundy]

2 hours ago, jesimps said:

Now that's like having jam on both sides. A strong intelligent leader of the free world and having more baht in my pocket.

[rckmc]

8 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

 

How are rate cuts supposed to support the dollar? Why does K Bank reckon that Trump will spend more than the Dems?

 

Hopeless analysis. 

Because they are both nothing more than Federal Reserve agents that will lead us into tokenization before they destroy whats left of the dollar.

[Thingamabob]

3 hours ago, khunpin said:

Just another reason NOT to like that criminal. 

I fear you may be missing the point.

[Screaming]

It seems there are many positives to Trump winning the election. MAGA 2024

[thailand49]

4 hours ago, AdmiralKrag said:

 

The article is pure speculation beyond the speculation Trump will win. If Thailand wanted to depreciate the baht there are numerous sure fire ways. Your premise is faulty.

What is faulty is your lack of understanding and any sense of having any humor!  😂

[johnc925]

This is about the stupidest thing I've ever read... 🤣

[metisdead]

An offensive post and the replies have been removed.

 

A post using ALL CAPS and a reply has been removed, please turn off your Caps Lock when posting. 

[thailand49]

Just my observation here!  Anytime the Trump name comes responses are loaded with negatives.  This Trump winning and making the Baht weaker strong for the dollars and elsewhere non of them got any bad to say or is it just me
😂

[BruceWayne]

9 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

 

How are rate cuts supposed to support the dollar? Why does K Bank reckon that Trump will spend more than the Dems?

 

Hopeless analysis. 

 

I think it reflects how the world would consider the us if somehow harris was elected.

 

The US is portrayed as a complete clown show already but a harris presidency would lookk extremely bad (much worse than trmp) and be several metaphorical nails in the US coffin imho - as a non yank.

 

Imho the dollar has been weak on the possibility of a harris presidency.

 

Can't imagine why though

 

 

 

 

 

 

[connda]

Analysts Predict Baht Decline if Trump Wins US Presidency

 

Suddenly all of the Leftie US Expats and wondering how to change their votes to Jill Stein.

[SingAPorn]

There are 2 factors in currency fluctuation.

 

1. The trends and realities on the international market

 

2. The steps taken by the domestic governance of the currency who can manipulate it up or down in the markets either by extensively buying it's own currency to make it artificially rise or flodding the marken in dumping and selling it to make it loose value.

 

If the hi so's who rule a country want to take out their money and invest it abroad they will do anything to increase the value of the currency by extensively makint the Central Bank buy.

 

If others want rather to help their exports or tourist industry, they will extensively dump and make the bank sell to drop the value in the international market which means more THB for a tourist for ex who changes money and cheaper cost for other countries wanting to import the goods.

 

All depends on what the people in power want to do with their money...and their interests.

 

Sure a cheaper THB sounds attractive to get more Bhats in exchanging euros or UK£ or whatever. But a low THB means a substantial increase of prices in anything imported. Consequently, those XXL oversized chunks of roast beef and other stuff many westerners cheries, could highly increase. So one may get more THB at the exchange counter, but if it's only to have to shell out more to live here..no point.

[CM Dad]

12 hours ago, webfact said:

File photo courtesy: Wikipedia

 

Thailand's baht is expected to depreciate further amid continuing capital outflows leading up to the US presidential election next month. Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) forecasts that if Republican candidate Donald Trump secures victory, the baht could potentially trade below 34.50 against the dollar.

 

The baht recently fell to 33.84 against the dollar, marking its lowest level in over six weeks. This comes as other regional currencies also weakened, impacted by stronger US dollar performance.

 

Kanjana Chockpisansin, K-Research's head of research for banking and financial sectors, explained that outflows from Thailand's stock and bond markets are occurring, bolstered by the dollar's strength due to rising US bond yields. The US Federal Reserve has indicated a gradual interest rate cut, further supporting the dollar.

 

On Wednesday, US 10-year Treasury yields peaked at 4.26%, the highest since late July, fueled by concerns over bond market pressures linked to a contentious November election.

 

"If Mr. Trump wins, the potential increase in government spending or borrowing could complicate US inflation reduction efforts, impacting the Fed's rate cut path," noted Kanjana. Such dynamics bolster the dollar, affecting Asian currencies like the yuan.

 

Despite these factors, K-Research continues to foresee a 0.25% reduction in US rates at each remaining Fed meeting this year, in line with Kasikorn Bank's stance.

 

Meanwhile, Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to hold domestic policy rates at its December meeting following a recent 25-basis-point reduction. "The MPC decisions are more likely to reflect Thailand’s own economic conditions rather than mirroring Fed actions," Kanjana added.

 

Kavee Chukitkasem from Pi Securities observed ongoing fund withdrawals from the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) amid election uncertainties and institutional investors viewing the SET's current price-to-earnings ratio as expensive, reported Bangkok Post.

 

"Election uncertainties are steering investors away from riskier assets toward safer holdings like the dollar and gold. Nonetheless, historically, stocks tend to recover post-election, regardless of the outcome," Kavee concluded.

 

-- 2024-10-26

 

 

I would much rather have a stronger baht than a lying, racist embarrassment like Trump in any position of power!

[kiwikeith]

10 hours ago, chiang mai said:

Keeping rates high when inflation is low, constraints economic growth. USD will only benefit from high rates if inflation remains high.

tourists will not come here, are they that nonsensical.

They want tourists but they are driving them away, except for the Russians and chinese that usually bring high rates of crime, this country is going to the pack,

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

tourists will not come here, are they that nonsensical.

They want tourists but they are driving them away, except for the Russians and chinese that usually bring high rates of crime, this country is going to the pack,

 10% variance or even 15% is not going to deter holiday makers or visitors, if people want to come here, they will come.

[spidermike007]

Well, during his first term Trump borrowed like a drunken sailor, and swelled the deficit by 7.1 trillion. It would likely be higher this time, with all his zany economic "plans". Would that strengthen the dollar, or weaken it? Many of his proposals would likely lead to more inflation, like the silly and ignorant tariff plans, which would be nothing more than a tax hike on the American consumer. 

[Bday Prang]

6 hours ago, Talon said:

Yes, those who live on a shoestring and whine about a 5 baht difference in beer prices have big issues.

As indeed do those making comments like this

[nauseus]

12 hours ago, chiang mai said:

Keeping rates high when inflation is low, constraints economic growth. USD will only benefit from high rates if inflation remains high.

 

Wonderful.

[nauseus]

10 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

 

  Without attempting to get into the politics of the US election:

 

  1.  The article states the US Federal Reserve will "gradually" cut rates.  In other words, the previously expected tranche of consecutive rate cuts may not materialize.  This doesn't necessarily "support" the dollar but it slows the weakening of the dollar that would occur if the Fed continued on their previously expected course of action.

 

  2.  When looking at what candidate Trump has proposed, it's not the spending side of the equation that's of "concern" to some, it's more the revenue side.  He has proposed eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security payments.  That means less revenue, so even flat spending results in a greater deficit, if those things were to happen. He would also like to continue with the tax cuts he achieved during his Presidency, which are set to expire in 2025.  That would also reduce incoming revenue.  Add to that his tariff proposals (generally inflationary in economic theory) and we're back to higher interest rates for longer.  

 

  (Disclaimer: I am not voting for either candidate and this post is in no way intended to reflect a preference or dislike for either of the US presidential election candidates.)

 

Well thanks for deviating so much that you completely managed to completely avoided answering the questions. 

 

Nice disclaimer though.

[Gknrd]

When I lived there I used to live for these events. I had a bank account there and would pump thousands of dollars into it from the US.. Cannot tell you how many lean years I spent living nice as a result.  If the country was livable I would be doing it now. Work it baby, take advantage of it.

Year ago before the banks got so greedy, you could bring in basically as much as you wanted with a debit card at the bank. With no fees.  You could pump thousands into your account. Now it is a joke to say the least. But, so is everywhere else. 

Edited October 26 by Gknrd

[nauseus]

6 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Trump spending commitments have already been assessed by independent US analysts by several trillion dollars. Fact.

 

higher spending usually boosts inflation, as do tariffs, and so the ruction path for US interest rates will be slower than currently anticipated.

 

Hence a stronger US dollar due to higher than currently anticipated US dollar interest rates.

 

So what are these spending commitments and what magic produces these higher interest rates while, right now, the Fed is trying to cut them.

[nauseus]

6 hours ago, TheFishman1 said:

Sean has to spend more than the Democrats look what he spends for his orange face and his hairdos

 

Desperate or what?

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, rckmc said:

Because they are both nothing more than Federal Reserve agents that will lead us into tokenization before they destroy whats left of the dollar.

 

Well., just maybe I understand what you're trying to say.

[wwest5829]

13 hours ago, daveAustin said:

Let’s hope he wins then. We could all do with that extra 0.66 😂

Baht is still WAAAAYY overpriced. The real value (yes it is propped up—look who’s moving monies around) is somewhere around 40. 

Not worth the trade off for me. Loss of my country versus a bit of my required immigration income being a bit more. But that is just me …

[daejung]

12 hours ago, Guderian said:

 

Hang about, it's the dollar and other Western currencies that have declined seriously against the Baht over the last six months, so where does the 'depreciate further' come from?

 

EUR vs THB forecast https://tauxde.com/eur-thb