When Our Money Dies

[Zapitapi]

On 10/27/2024 at 2:20 PM, Old Curmudgeon said:

When Our Money Dies

 

Our money is dying: Dollars, Pounds, Euros, Loonies, Shekels, Rand; all of it.

Here's a health chart:

 

 

 

Health chart is US Dollars, but similar decline for all Western currencies.

 

I'm not worried about me dying.

What worries me is my money dies before I do.

Bank account will still have some numbers.

Pension will transfer in every month.

But won't buy much of anything here.

Or anywhere.

 

Among my fellow Americans, a "last ditch" job for oldsters is working as a "greeter" at Walmart.

Big-C doesn't have greeters.

Retired expats can't work anywhere here.

Not even poke-poke sohm-dtam at a little market stall.

So, as our fiat money dies, buying less and less of life's little necessities -- like food -- what will expats do?

 

Comments and critique welcome.

 

 

sure you heard loads of BS here.. but you are correct.. fiat is fiat.. if you want to be a bit safer get ur retirement monies (not sure what doc it is in the US but think 401k or so) directly converted into physical gold or/and BTC.

 

many do not take serious what is happening and those will laugh now but come to your door for help saying "i could have not known it and i need help" but the truths is that it is pretty much in your face if one dares to look

thanks for your post as it is one of the most important shifts we all go trough.. it will be horrible for so many 

[Zapitapi]

8 hours ago, Walker88 said:

The end is nigh....and always will be.

 

Fiat money is always about to evaporate, any second now, even though they are currently more than 180 versions of it in every day use around the world. We all know fiat has no inherent value, but we collectively agree it's good enough. We pretend, so that we need not kill someone just to get a piece of meat.

 

Neither does gold have any inherent value. Rarity or finiteness alone does not create value; it still requires that at least one side to any transaction believes something has value.

 

Gold might have some value in a financial crisis, but it has absolutely no value in a financial calamity.  Pensioners are going to stroll into a 7-11 with a diamond file, shave off a few grains of Au, and in return get their cheese toast? No.

 

Necessities alone have actual value, and one man's necessity might be another man's excess. A man dying of thirst would do anything for a glass of water, but I guy with a hundred million gallons of potable water wouldn't give anyone a single baht for a glass of water.

 

Talk of the so-called BRICS creating some alternative means of exchange are a fantasy. Weak economies banding together become a band of weak economies. Plus, none of the BRICS has any sort of reliable rule of law, so none is an attractive parking place for wealth. A massive set of capital markets with ease of entry and exit, such as the US has, is attractive. Besides, the future is technology in general and AI in particular. It's likely AI is going to provide a solution to virtually limitless energy, so the current 'gas station with nukes' (Russia) is likely to become a Blockbuster Video: loaded up with things nobody wants.

 

If someday everyone collectively decided fiat was worthless, society would make Mad Max look like summer camp. Isolated arable land would have value. Guns and ammo would have value. Not being a fat old man trying to hide a few bars of gold would have value relative to the fat old gold bug.

 

Thinking one can plan for a fat tail event is a fool's game. If fiat goes, civilization goes. There would be no refuge. It might make sense to plan for a financial crisis, as crises are temporary. A financial calamity is Armageddon, and survival might not even be worth the effort.

 

Have a nice day.

 

 

sooo.. nah wont spend time on a proper reply..will be too long as almost all of your points are completely wrong..anyway wish you good luck with "your way" 

[Old Curmudgeon]

41 minutes ago, Zapitapi said:

many do not take serious what is happening and those will laugh now but come to your door for help saying "i could have not known it and i need help" but the truths is that it is pretty much in your face if one dares to look

 

@Zapitapi's thinking lines up with reality as far as I can tell.

 

And he's correct about the "BS" ... we have a lot of that on this topic.

Which suggests that the BS-ers here are unwilling, unable, or just plain afraid to consider this topic carefully.

 

Thank you @Zapitapi for taking your time to write and post on this thread.

[Old Curmudgeon]

27 minutes ago, Zapitapi said:

sooo.. nah wont spend time on a proper reply.

 

Exactly the correct reply, in my opinion.

 

So often on uncomfortable topics, there's nothing one can say to correct another person's outlook ... or lack of it.

 

What that shows, is this topic is highly uncomfortable for many of our fellow expats. 

At least those who come to this forum.

 

And that is a good warning to not rely on much help or even any understanding from a large majority of other expats, when the you-know-what hits the fan.

 

Thanks again, @Zapitapi for your clear comments here.

 

[gargamon]

So all the MAGA morons are getting ready for their orange buffoon to lose next week by spinning up new accounts and trying to pump gold, crypto, etc.

 

Good luck with that.

[Patong2021]

And away we go with the promos for gold.  The value of gold is a social construct. In effect it is the continuation of a cultural practice that dates to ancient times. The biggest promoters of  the value of gold are those who  sell it and make their living from its trade. The reality is that  the currency of a stable economy is far more valuable than gold itself.

Gold is but one commodity. The currency of a stable economy is secured by multiple assets. 

 

One of the arguments used for holding gold is that it can be used in a time of an emergency. Well, it is of no use if trade routes are blocked, or if suppliers have no resources to sell. Canada has no gold reserves. It doesn't need them. It has oil reserves, fresh water, abundant clean energy with its hydro electricity, lots of fertile land, and an abundance of food or access to it. This is what  its currency is secured by: The wealth of  the nation. Many countries have similar national assets. This is why their  currency is not "dying".

 

The USA offers similar to Canada, and can usually offer a stability of government too. the same holds for the EU, UK, Australia, Japan, South Korea and others.  Yes, if I was living in Sierra Leone. gold might have  a justifiable need, but I am not so I need not worry about the issue.

[kingstonkid]

On 10/27/2024 at 4:36 PM, timendres said:

 

SS will not stop sending out checks. The US Federal Reserve will but all US Treasury debt when they have no other choice.

Your real concern is a "haircut", where the SSA determines that benefits cannot be met in full. You will lose 20% or more of your benefit. But before that happens, you will likely see them nullify the COLA adjustment. That is the big red flag.

What will complicate matters, at that point, is that USDTHB could potentially be in free fall.

Then your haircut will be amplified by the poor exchange rate.

You will not get "nothing", but the financial pain will be quite intense.

I have planned for a 25% haircut in 7 to 10 years, with USDTHB hitting 25.

I feel this is the worst case scenario for those over 60 collecting SS.

The problem in most Western countries is that they are importing more than they are actually producing; therefore, with tariffs and other taxes, the prices go up.

 

Consider the difference if the U.S,. Produced its own oil and  set their costs, then OPEC raising and tightening would not matter.

 

 

[Unamerican]

8 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

The value of gold is a social construct.

Surely it is the more basic notion of  “value” that is  the thing  that is constructed!  

 

The current value of gold derives from its current relative stability,

does it not? 

This is not constructed, a least not in any simple and arbitrary way. 

Edited October 29 by Unamerican

[Unamerican]

8 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

Yes, if I was living in Sierra Leone. gold might have  a justifiable need

So where does Thailand fit into your analysis of nations? 

[Scott Tracy]

On 10/27/2024 at 7:48 AM, Old Curmudgeon said:

Sorry, @Smokin Joe, I appreciate your effort, but the original post is the correct presentation for money dying.

 

This topic is about money dying before we old expats die.

The funny chart is merely a visual indicator of that.

The chart isn't the topic.

The chart's showing gold price in dollars and you made it the topic when you inverted it and flipped it.

 

Money value has always declined long term. About 20 dollars now will buy what $1 bought 100 years ago.

[helloagain]

On 10/27/2024 at 2:20 PM, Old Curmudgeon said:

When Our Money Dies

 

Our money is dying: Dollars, Pounds, Euros, Loonies, Shekels, Rand; all of it.

Here's a health chart:

 

 

 

Health chart is US Dollars, but similar decline for all Western currencies.

 

I'm not worried about me dying.

What worries me is my money dies before I do.

Bank account will still have some numbers.

Pension will transfer in every month.

But won't buy much of anything here.

Or anywhere.

 

Among my fellow Americans, a "last ditch" job for oldsters is working as a "greeter" at Walmart.

Big-C doesn't have greeters.

Retired expats can't work anywhere here.

Not even poke-poke sohm-dtam at a little market stall.

So, as our fiat money dies, buying less and less of life's little necessities -- like food -- what will expats do?

 

Comments and critique welcome.

 

 

Re do your health chart

[cowellandrew]

On 10/27/2024 at 8:48 AM, 1FinickyOne said:

I am more concerned with the possibility of a fast and immediate crash if the USA dissolves into crazy conflict where the banks are forced to shutter... and the SS stops sending out checks... 

SS in the USA!

😂😂😂😂😂

[KhunLA]

If all you have is money / bank notes, and you need to survive, then you will simply die with your currency.  Or, unless you, yourself are marketable ... a whole new crop of free-lancers 

 

As much as a gold mine I am in that aspect, I won't need to exercise that route, as we are fairly self sufficient, or will be shortly.  No need for anything or anybody.

 

All prepped up over the past 2 years, and just need to fine tune the operation, with some more planting, some chickens  ... and buy a damn fishing rod 🙄

 

 

Edited October 29 by KhunLA

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, cowellandrew said:

SS in the USA!

😂😂😂😂😂

I said 

 

1 hour ago, cowellandrew said:

a fast and immediate crash if the USA dissolves into crazy conflict

what about that implies elsewhere than the USA - - many people are working towards chaos - including a prez candidate... 

[Lacessit]

On 10/28/2024 at 1:07 PM, Walker88 said:

 

Neither does gold have any inherent value. Rarity or finiteness alone does not create value; it still requires that at least one side to any transaction believes something has value.

 

 

 

 

Gold and silver have inherent value in their use for consumer goods, and industrial processes.. It's possible gold may become even more valuable, if rumors of batteries made from gold capable of cycling millions of times are true.

 

Platinum is essential in glass manufacture and catalytic cracking of crude oil. Passenger vehicles have to have it in exhaust systems, to meet NOx emission standards.

 

As for silver, it is in every mobile phone, laptop, desktop and screen. Just about any electronic device. The most electrically conductive of all metals.

[Old Curmudgeon]

3 hours ago, KhunLA said:

If all you have is money / bank notes, and you need to survive, then you will simply die with your currency.  Or, unless you, yourself are marketable ...  more planting, some chickens  ... and buy a damn fishing rod 🙄

 

Ah, finally, someone who understands the problem, AND has prepared a solution.

My compliments, @KhunLA.

 

Some questions:

How will you defend/hide/camouflage your garden and your chickens?

There will be marauders looking to steal what you have.

You and your family can't stay awake around the clock guarding your homestead with your trusty 12-gauge pump action.

And even if you tried, there would be more marauders than you have shells.

 

What to do?

Especially as expats in Thailand where homesteading is difficult and 12-guage is likely illegal.

That's what I wonder.

 

Thoughts, please.

[KhunLA]

28 minutes ago, Old Curmudgeon said:

 

Ah, finally, someone who understands the problem, AND has prepared a solution.

My compliments, @KhunLA.

 

Some questions:

How will you defend/hide/camouflage your garden and your chickens?

There will be marauders looking to steal what you have.

You and your family can't stay awake around the clock guarding your homestead with your trusty 12-gauge pump action.

And even if you tried, there would be more marauders than you have shells.

 

What to do?

Especially as expats in Thailand where homesteading is difficult and 12-guage is likely illegal.

That's what I wonder.

 

Thoughts, please.

12 g maybe for me, but not the wife 

 

Another 'what if' that simply isn't going to happen in my life time, or my wife's.  You're talking about 'our' currency dying, not necessarily Thailand's.  We live kind of rural, lot's of farming, so plenty of food for everyone.

 

You talking abut economic issues, not an 'end of days' scenario.  Civilization has been coming to an end, since it started.  It's not profitable for the puppeteers to allow world bankruptcy (already there) so it will never happen.

 

We almost produce enough on one lot now, and just cleared 2 more small ones.  Only 2 of us, and we can't eat that much food.  Use for bartering, for meats; beef, pork, chicken.

 

Collect rain water already and desalinization is easy enough.  No worries here.

 

 

Plus we live walking distance to the Gulf, have BEVs & solar.   Actually thinking about adding another 10kWh of ESS to the system.  Along with another separate system  on one of the lots in vid, as has good exposure, and I can DIY it, as no roof to climb on.

[BritManToo]

6 hours ago, Scott Tracy said:

The chart's showing gold price in dollars and you made it the topic when you inverted it and flipped it.

 

Money value has always declined long term. About 20 dollars now will buy what $1 bought 100 years ago.

Depends what you're buying!

How much would a 75" TV have cost in1924?

Or movies or a music collection in your home?

 

And why worry about the money value, isn't the real value in the number of hours you need to work in order to buy something? If you're considering the working hours required, most of us are billionaires compared to people living 100 years ago.

Edited October 29 by BritManToo

[Old Curmudgeon]

3 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Plus we live walking distance to the Gulf

 

Well, @KhunLA, you sure fooled me.

I posted this topic on a forum about Thailand.

And in my opening post I mentioned focus on retired expats in Thailand.

And yet, here you are giving advice about living in the (I suspect) Southeastern USA.

 

One moment please while I activate the ignore user feature of this forum.

Edited October 29 by Old Curmudgeon

[Old Curmudgeon]

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Isn't the real value in the number of hours you need to work in order to buy something?

 

Good point and close, but not exactly.

 

The real value is only what someone else is willing to pay or trade with you.

For labor or production of any kind.

 

And if no one else is willing to part with any money, or trade any hours (barter) for what you offer, then the real value is zero.

 

What worries me -- specifically for retired expats here -- is when the total financial situation in this region is so dire, that our production is of no value at all.

Plus, visa regulations here against working or doing any  business (retirement visa extension) are a double whammy.

 

So if the world economy does "hit the fan", the locals will be scrambling to sell some vegetables, or make noodle soup, or take in washing or sewing, while we expats can only sit on our hands doing nothing to create any economic value.

Edited October 29 by Old Curmudgeon

[Patong2021]

11 hours ago, Unamerican said:

Surely it is the more basic notion of  “value” that is  the thing  that is constructed!  

 

The current value of gold derives from its current relative stability,

does it not? 

This is not constructed, a least not in any simple and arbitrary way. 

 

Gold is a social construct because  the elites of ancient times declared it a  valued commodity. Yes, the value of gold has been relatively stable over the long term. However, it has been volatile in the short term. Gold is a solitary item. The fiat currency of a free country can be more stable because it is backed by the combined resources of that country. A diversification of an asset base that relies upon multiple stable commodities offers a stronger base of stability.  In addition are judicial systems that support social stability.

 

11 hours ago, Unamerican said:

So where does Thailand fit into your analysis of nations? 

 

I do not invest in Thailand. However, I do recognize that it offers a relatively stable economy that relies upon multiple commodities in addition to gold.

 

 

 

[Patong2021]

1 hour ago, Old Curmudgeon said:

 

Good point and close, but not exactly.

 

The real value is only what someone else is willing to pay or trade with you.

For labor or production of any kind.

 

And if no one else is willing to part with any money, or trade any hours (barter) for what you offer, then the real value is zero.

 

What worries me -- specifically for retired expats here -- is when the total financial situation in this region is so dire, that our production is of no value at all.

Plus, visa regulations here against working or doing any  business (retirement visa extension) are a double whammy.

 

So if the world economy does "hit the fan", the locals will be scrambling to sell some vegetables, or make noodle soup, or take in washing or sewing, while we expats can only sit on our hands doing nothing to create any economic value.

 

Yes, you have made a valid conclusion, provided that someone is not willing to trade or barter or purchase. Although a national currency or even a linked regional basket of currencies can fail. It is unlikely that the fiat currencies of stable countries would do so.  When a local currency collapses, the locals will quickly switch a more stable foreign currency like USD, or Euro, or Chinese Renminbi. Long before there was a worldwide collapse of currencies, there would be  warning signs, and foreigners would be warned to  get out of a hotzone. If there was an immediate  collapse, the crisis that would ensue would be far greater than not having any money. We would see a collapse of social services, and a collapse of public order. I doubt that foreigners would survive long enough to have to be concerned about not having any liquid assets. Look at what happened to the Iraqis and their Palestinian allies after the liberation of Kuwait. They fled back to Iraq, but a great many were incinerated one day losing all of the stolen vehicles and the looted appliances, furniture and gold that they were carrying. 

[KhunLA]

Thanks, now I can avoid another silly 'what if' the world ends threads.  Seems someone doesn't realize where the Gulf of Thailand is 

 

@Old Curmudgeon

[still kicking]

On 10/28/2024 at 10:56 AM, spidermike007 said:

I am in the US right now, and the prices and inflation are mind blowing. The cheapest lunch we have found was $30 for two. Junky good. That is 1,000 baht, anytime you want something basic. A bag of groceries is 3,000 baht.

 

 A friend of mine is looking for an apartment to move to in LA, and really small, simple places are 70,000 baht per month and up. Nice two bedrooms are closer to 100,000 baht. Decent homes start at 125,000 baht per month. The cost of nearly everything has gone up dramatically. Runaway inflation? 

 

Thailand is still reasonable. It used to be cheap. Has not been cheap for a long time. But, it is still reasonable. I know people who pay 10,000 baht a month for newer 3 bedroom houses in nice towns. In major cities in the US? $2000-3800 a month. That is 120,000 baht!

 

I had my motorbike seat recently redone on my scooter. 400 baht. A friend of mine had similar work done in the US. $275.

 

I recently had a guy come over and insulate my ceiling. I bought the insulation and paid him 2000 baht for labor. In the US? $500 and up.

 

I recently had an electrician do some work on the house. Nearly a full day of work for two men. Paid him 2000 baht. In the US? $800 and up.

 

An oil change for my scooter costs me 200 baht, with Castrol oil. In the US? $75.

 

When I travel here I stay in nice four star hotels in Bangkok. Usually 1800-2000 baht. In the US? $130 for a crappy motel. $250 and up for a nice room.

 

I eat well here. In a smaller town you can get a three course meal for 150-250 baht. In the US? 2000 baht and up, plus tax and a nearly mandatory 15% tip.

 

I visit the emergency room here to visit a specialist, and with x-rays I am out the door for 2000 baht, at a private hospital. In the US? $300-2000.

 

An anecdote on this subject. A good friend of mine got in a bad motorcycle accident some time ago. He almost lost his leg. He got his first of 11 operations at Bangkok Hospital Samui. It costs him over a million baht. They wanted to do a second procedure. They quoted him 1,400,000 baht. He decided to transfer to Bangkok. He was quoted 460,000 baht for the same procedure, at a top private hospital there. The surgeon told him that he worked at a public hospital too, and could do the same operation there, for alot less money. He told him he would get him a quote. In the interim, my friend called a good friend of his, in San Diego, who is an orthopedic surgeon. Since my friend is a retired chiropractor, he knew all the terminology, and explained what he needed, and asked for the best price. His friend called him back the next day, and quoted him $960,000, with cash discounts! The local surgeon here got back to him, and told him he could do it for 46,000 baht. He transferred, and they did all the rest of his procedures. So, 1,400,000 at Bangkok Hospital, 460,000 at Vejthani Hospital, and 46,000 at the public hospital, with an excellent surgeon. VS. 31,000,000 baht in the US. Again, no complaints from this peanut gallery.

 

Friends of mine, who are single, enjoy the company of a young, beautiful woman for a couple of hours, for 2500 baht. In the US? $800 an hour now for a beauty, with alot of attitude.

 

I could go on and on, all day long. I live at a level here, that I would never be able to live at, in the US, in most of Europe, in Oz, or Canada. 

 

 

Nonsense I pay rent for a 2 bed unit 240  AUD for 8 years now  my food bill is about 80 to  90 AUD per week 

[Henryford]

Who cares about the price of gold, it is irrelevant to most people. If all countries price trillions of funny money their currencies will fall.  But if they fall at around the same pace they will still be worth around the same compared to each other.  It's just that a loaf of bread will be $2 instead of $1 and your salary will be $100,000 instead of $50,000.

Edited October 30 by Henryford

[thailand49]

Don't worry what you can't control!  If it dies for the West it will die everywhere. This is to me nothing more than a end of the world type post!  Enjoy Enjoy, Mai pen Rain, if it ends it will affect everyone and every place including Thailand. Don't live beyond your means is what I told Brits when rates were like 70-1 many never listen when it dropped many left to go back home.🤔

[ericbj]

For millenia gold and silver have both been appreciated as a medium of storage of value and a convenient substitute for barter.  For reasons that should be too obvious to require detailing here.  Their values [purchasing power] have fluctuated up and down, in line with supply and demand.  But within quite narrow limits, when judged by modern experience.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_revolution

 

They can be regarded as safe havens against the devaluation of fiat currencies caused by deliberate over-supply ["money-printing"].

 

However, they are not safe against seizure by the issuers of fiat currencies, notably those in the West, who have successfully lulled their populations into a disregard for "pet rocks".    The U.S. government seized private holdings of gold in 1933 (for reasons other than apply today).  So beware!

 

In times of so-called "high inflation", i.e. devaluing fiat currencies, the value of precious metals as a store of value (although perhaps not of market exchange) becomes increasingly difficult to hide.  E.g. by massive short-selling on futures markets such as the Comex.

 

Think carefully about where in the world you wish to store your precious metals, and with whom.  Not with the dealers you bought it through.

 

[Some Thais came unstuck because their gold was with the dealers when the latter went bankrupt in the 1997 crisis].

 

Make sure your precious metals are "allocated" and "segregated".  The latter is not so with BullionVault, but I think they are quite a safe bet nonetheless.  And extremely convenient.

 

Never all the eggs in one basket.

 

Essential raw materials will always retain value.  And the less their availability relative to demand the greater that value will be.  Food is an obvious need.  As well perceived by Bill Gates who is now the largest owner of agricultural land in the U.S.

 

Silver is not much used as a store of value these days.  But there is huge demand for its use in modern electronic technology and the like.  90% is used industrially (and very little recycled) while supplies are likely to prove very inadequate in the near future.  Copper is in a somewhat similar situation.  Barring total economic meltdown.  And then  there is uranium.

 

[Old Curmudgeon]

44 minutes ago, ericbj said:

gold and silver ... safe havens against the devaluation of fiat currencies ...However, they are not safe against seizure by the issuers of fiat currencies ... Think carefully about where in the world you wish to store your precious metals, and with whom. 

 

A major effort by @ericbj.

Or perhaps by an astute A.I. bot.

I can't really tell.

But I thank you for taking the time to post all that.

 

As the OP here, I just wish you'd read the opening post more carefully and thought more thoroughly before you went off on that tangent about gold, silver and uranium.

(In fairness, you have a lot, really a lot, of company on that tangent on this thread.)

 

I now wish I'd started the opening post something like this:

• "Imagine that you've saved and saved and acquired a healthy amount of gold, silver, whatever.  And then comes the day the money dies.  All money.  Everywhere.  You've got your gold, silver, whatever, but nobody wants it.  Nobody will trade you anything for it.  Nothing!!  Because it's no good to them.  Your "stash" won't/can't buy anything.
• And add to that you are an expat living in Thailand, where foreigners are prohibited from doing almost any job, or operating almost any business.  What will you do??

 

Back over to you @ericbj for any further thoughts, but without any gold, silver, or uranium.

 

Edited October 30 by Old Curmudgeon

[soi3eddie]

On 10/27/2024 at 7:45 AM, Smokin Joe said:

 

Wish I bought earlier. Still buying in March 2023 and holding to date is a good feeling. I didn't buy for profit but for security. When I die, my GF gets the bullion. She will be happy.

 

 

[soi3eddie]

16 hours ago, Henryford said:

Who cares about the price of gold, it is irrelevant to most people. If all countries price trillions of funny money their currencies will fall.  But if they fall at around the same pace they will still be worth around the same compared to each other.  It's just that a loaf of bread will be $2 instead of $1 and your salary will be $100,000 instead of $50,000.

 

But if you you don't have salary but instead fiat in hand, then it will be half. If you have gold in hand, it will retain its value and get you the same product in return (rather than half). This is the beauty of gold and reason why its price increases. i.e it retains its value in real exchange for products and value. 

 

Edited October 30 by soi3eddie