Trump Declares Victory and Promises a "Golden Age" for America

[candide]

1 minute ago, BigStar said:

 

You got no credibility left, sorry. Having failed miserably in your election prediction, like all leftists the fallback will be to pick up demonizing again and predict coming DOOM. It's THE talking point now except for the blame going around for the election loss. Blaming anything but the reality of Biden/Harris failed policies. 

 

 

 

 

Irrelevant deflection.

All what I stated is basic economics.

 

Are you claiming that tariffs don't lead to price increases to compensentate for the cost increase of imported goods?

 

Are you claiming that when there are many vacant positions and not enough people to fill them, it doesn't cause wage inflation?

 

Are you claiming that stimulating demand with tax cuts doesn't cause inflation?

[candide]

18 minutes ago, IC2000 said:

 

This analysis is so flawed I don't know where to begin.

 

1 Every ugly, "Big"  XYZ with the exception of oil backed Harris Walz. This is so disingenuous. The US still needs oil in a big way and will for decades. I'm expecting prices to drop exponentially. With a drop in oil prices the knock on is significant.

 

2 Deportation of illegal immigrants will lead to jobs unfilled. Low end jobs may need to be studied and action fast tracked but the answer isn't the past four years. Paying people more for a job well done is not a problem. The issue is productivity. You blithely assume some non English speaking immigrant from third world country a better and more productive employee. That's just wrong. Either way it's no excuse - especially for 25M illegals. Shall we add the indirect expenses as well? Of course not.

 

3 Tax cuts do not contribute to inflation. That's pure nonsense. Classic inflation is when the Fed as under Biden creates money out of thin air and congress wastes it into existence. Biden's numerous attempts to pay for constituents educational expenses or on illegal immigrant giveaways are perfect examples.

 

You're not even close

Mainly a nice try at avoiding the issues I raised.

 

1. My point 1 was that tariffs lead to price increase. You avoided to consider this one. Are you denying that too?

 

2a. You are right about the possible role of productivity. However, it doesn't really work like you are presenting it. In order to increase productivity, it is necessary to reorganize, automatize, etc... and it takes time to do it. On top of it, it is not obvious that U.S. born may be more productive for jobs necessitating had work, such as harvesting grapes, or that there is any scope for increasing productivity in all jobs (ex jobs in shops, restaurants, etc..)

In case the productivity increase you describe happens, it won't happen on short term.

2b. You assume that it will be easy to find Americans or legal immigrants to fill these jobs. This is not the case. Unemployment is already low, and the baby boomers are retiring while low-birth generations are join the job market. In simpler terms, there are not enough U.S. born people to just replace people who are retiring.

2c You also ignore the fact that if wages are increased for the unfilled jobs, other businesses will have to increase wages for the other jobs, in order to keep their employees (that's what happened in every developped country after the pandemic), in particular for "productive" people.

 

3. Tax cuts increase the amount of money available for spending, so it increases demand and growth (that's the stated objective), and increased demand tend to increase inflation. You can deny it as much as you want, increased demand tend to increase inflation. The only question is to which extent? At best, it will be limited but will certainly not lead to the promised lower inflation.

 

Now consider how these three factors may interact: local producers will be facing strong demand on top of having to increase their wages because there is a lack of manpower, while businesses relying on imports for a large part of their business will have to increase their prices, on top of also likely having to increase the wages of the employees they want to keep.

[Jingthing]

Is that a 1000 year Golden Age?

You sure he isn't talking about his hair?

[BigStar]

2 hours ago, candide said:

All what I stated is basic economics.

 

Nah, you're as good an Economic Analyst as you were a Political Analyst. As before, when one balloon is popped, you'll ignore it and blow up another. Not taking that bait, sorry. Waste of time.

Edited Saturday at 11:20 AM by BigStar

[candide]

26 minutes ago, BigStar said:

 

Nah, you're as good an Economic Analyst as you were a Political Analyst. As before, when one balloon is popped, you'll ignore it and blow up another. Not taking that bait, sorry. Waste of time.

More lame deflections. Better not waste other people's time with your irrelevant comments! 😀

Edited Saturday at 11:44 AM by candide

[IC2000]

2 hours ago, candide said:

Mainly a nice try at avoiding the issues I raised.

 

1. My point 1 was that tariffs lead to price increase. You avoided to consider this one. Are you denying that too?

 

2a. You are right about the possible role of productivity. However, it doesn't really work like you are presenting it. In order to increase productivity, it is necessary to reorganize, automatize, etc... and it takes time to do it. On top of it, it is not obvious that U.S. born may be more productive for jobs necessitating had work, such as harvesting grapes, or that there is any scope for increasing productivity in all jobs (ex jobs in shops, restaurants, etc..)

In case the productivity increase you describe happens, it won't happen on short term.

2b. You assume that it will be easy to find Americans or legal immigrants to fill these jobs. This is not the case. Unemployment is already low, and the baby boomers are retiring while low-birth generations are join the job market. In simpler terms, there are not enough U.S. born people to just replace people who are retiring.

2c You also ignore the fact that if wages are increased for the unfilled jobs, other businesses will have to increase wages for the other jobs, in order to keep their employees (that's what happened in every developped country after the pandemic), in particular for "productive" people.

 

3. Tax cuts increase the amount of money available for spending, so it increases demand and growth (that's the stated objective), and increased demand tend to increase inflation. You can deny it as much as you want, increased demand tend to increase inflation. The only question is to which extent? At best, it will be limited but will certainly not lead to the promised lower inflation.

 

Now consider how these three factors may interact: local producers will be facing strong demand on top of having to increase their wages because there is a lack of manpower, while businesses relying on imports for a large part of their business will have to increase their prices, on top of also likely having to increase the wages of the employees they want to keep.

 

1. Tarrifs may and most likely lead to price increases. US has tarrifs now. So, I guess you're just against the Trump tarrifs not the Biden tarrifs. Trump's plan is to use tarrifs to strong arm countries into better or more equitable trade deals for US. What tarrifs will buy among other things is lower taxes. It may also produce, protect jobs, regrow industry. You can't simply point to something and claim it bad or whatever. Water will kill you if you drink enough of it as well.

 

2. Initially you were reaching and you are again. Your position was quite broad, this is a forum. I don't get paid to correct errors in economic, social, political thought. Bottom line  voters have spoken. They want illegal aliens out. Immigration policy obviously needs to be fixed on many levels. They're really sad and even pathetic thing with these illegals is that they will be and their children children's children destined to exist in squalor at the bottom of the economic ladder given the current Biden Harris economic situation. In fact, maybe at a point of no return and I highly suspect we are - upward mobility is pretty much gone.

 

3. The classic definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. A state in which an economy is awash in money. Prices rising is not inflationary it is the result of money being inflated. Cause effect. The value of money is worn down thru inflation.

 

Tax cuts may or may not produce more money directed at goods. Even if they did this is not inflationary especially considering Chinese supply the entire world with endless amounts of consumer goods practically free. So, no inflation. Further, during COVID-19 Biden pumped trillions of dollars into the US economy and it still wasn't enough to keep it afloat. That's because the velocity of money simply wasn't there. People squirreled the money away, paid debts, sat in panic. So, more money even literally inflationary stimulus created from nothing, but the FED at the time was only taking DEFLATION and for far too long saying that inflation was non-existent. You do remember that don't you? It was quite crazy because inflation was everywhere.

 

Moreover, to make a quantum leap and state that lowering taxes leads to higher inflation is simply nonsensical. Please provide a link to that. Therefore, according to your sage wisdom we don't lower taxes? You definitely are a Democrat.

Edited Saturday at 12:17 PM by IC2000
typos, addl

[candide]

23 minutes ago, IC2000 said:

 

1. Tarrifs may and most likely lead to price increases. US has tarrifs now. So, I guess you're just against the Trump tarrifs not the Biden tarrifs. Trump's plan is to use tarrifs to strong arm countries into better or more equitable trade deals for US. What tarrifs will buy among other things is lower taxes. It may also produce, protect jobs, regrow industry. You can't simply point to something and claim it bad or whatever. Water will kill you if you drink enough of it as well.

 

2. Initially you were reaching and you are again. Your position was quite broad, this is a forum. I don't get paid to correct errors in economic, social, political thought. Bottom line  voters have spoken. They want illegal aliens out. Immigration policy obviously needs to be fixed on many levels. They're really sad and even pathetic thing with these illegals is that they will be and their children children's children destined to exist in squalor at the bottom of the economic ladder given the current Biden Harris economic situation. In fact, maybe at a point of no return and I highly suspect we are - upward mobility is pretty much gone.

 

3. The classic definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. A state in which an economy is awash in money. Prices rising is not inflationary it is the result of money being inflated. Cause effect. The value of money is worn down thru inflation.

 

Tax cuts may or may not produce more money directed at goods. Even if they did this is not inflationary especially considering Chinese supply the entire world with endless amounts of consumer goods practically free. So, no inflation. Further, during COVID-19 Biden pumped trillions of dollars into the US economy and it still wasn't enough to keep it afloat. That's because the velocity of money simply wasn't there. People squirreled the money away, paid debts, sat in panic. So, more money even literally inflationary stimulus created from nothing, but the FED at the time was only taking DEFLATION and for far too long saying that inflation was non-existent. You do remember that don't you? It was quite crazy because inflation was everywhere.

 

Moreover, to make a quantum leap and state that lowering taxes leads to higher inflation is simply nonsensical. Please provide a link to that. Therefore, according to your sage wisdom we don't lower taxes? You definitely are a Democrat.

1. I 'm not arguing that tariffs may not have any benefits or other drawbacks that I didn't mention (such as other countries retaliating with tariffs), just pointing out that it contradicts Trump's promise to reduce inflation. Of course, if for some reason they are not extensively applied, the impact on inflation will be lower.

 

2. It's basically the law of supply and demand. When demand for jobs is higher than supply of manpower, wages increase. Of course, it can be tempered by the factors you evoke, but it also contradicts the stated objective of reducing inflation.

In the mind of citizen, the satisfaction of having less immigrants may compensate for an increase of inflation, but that's another debate.

 

3. The previous tax cuts did not create much inflation because it was compensated by low priced imports, as you mentioned. However Chinese and other imports will be taxed more (again, in case the tariff policy is extensively applied), so it would not work for the new tax cuts. Not all the money made available will be spent on goods and services, that's true. So It's about how much demand and growth will be generated by tax cuts. If there is a low impact on growth, it won't generate much inflation. Actually, in case deporting immigrants may result in a decrease of the number of jobs, it will tend to reduce demand, so it may also compensate for the tax cuts effect. All in all, you may be right that tax cuts may not have a significant effect on inflation.

 

To sum up, these promises tend to increase inflation and tend to contradict the other promise to reduce inflation.

Their impact also depends on the extent to which the moderating factors mentioned may have an effect, and most of all on the extent to which these promises will be implemented. Depending on these uncertainties, they may not excessively increase inflation, but will certainly not contribute to reduce it.

 

You may notice that I'm not the only one to make this 'wild' claim about inflation...

https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-tariffs-taxes-immigration-federal-reserve-a18de763fcc01557258c7f33cab375ed

[IC2000]

27 minutes ago, candide said:

1. I 'm not arguing that tariffs may not have any benefits or other drawbacks that I didn't mention (such as other countries retaliating with tariffs), just pointing out that it contradicts Trump's promise to reduce inflation. Of course, if for some reason they are not extensively applied, the impact on inflation will be lower.

 

2. It's basically the law of supply and demand. When demand for jobs is higher than supply of manpower, wages increase. Of course, it can be tempered by the factors you evoke, but it also contradicts the stated objective of reducing inflation.

In the mind of citizen, the satisfaction of having less immigrants may compensate for an increase of inflation, but that's another debate.

 

3. The previous tax cuts did not create much inflation because it was compensated by low priced imports, as you mentioned. However Chinese and other imports will be taxed more (again, in case the tariff policy is extensively applied), so it would not work for the new tax cuts. Not all the money made available will be spent on goods and services, that's true. So It's about how much demand and growth will be generated by tax cuts. If there is a low impact on growth, it won't generate much inflation. Actually, in case deporting immigrants may result in a decrease of the number of jobs, it will tend to reduce demand, so it may also compensate for the tax cuts effect. All in all, you may be right that tax cuts may not have a significant effect on inflation.

 

To sum up, these promises tend to increase inflation and tend to contradict the other promise to reduce inflation.

Their impact also depends on the extent to which the moderating factors mentioned may have an effect, and most of all on the extent to which these promises will be implemented. Depending on these uncertainties, they may not excessively increase inflation, but will certainly not contribute to reduce it.

 

You may notice that I'm not the only one to make this 'wild' claim about inflation...

https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-tariffs-taxes-immigration-federal-reserve-a18de763fcc01557258c7f33cab375ed

 

I think you're basically just rehashing what you'd stated prior.

 

No fan of AP, but the paragraph w/ Peterson Institute I accept as valid criticism. The article never states how inflation will be created due to mass deportations. I'd love to read that one.

 

The only economist in the letter that I recognize is Stiglitz not that that's a thing I don't follow economics policy very closely anymore. The letter doesn't state any of the issues, it very well could have. Rather it just paints w/ a broad brush.

 

It also takes Trump to task over trying to pressure Fed policy, Biden administration arguably has and perhaps saved it's bacon at least twice. Every administration wants more control over the Fed. So this point is moot and laughable as the Fed would always state that it is never influenced by outside pressure. Hopefully with Trump in office we will have audit of the Federal Reserve we can only dream for a dissolution from that horrid private institution

 

The article is biased as I would expect anything out of the AP these years.

 

I think you really need to see the specifics of trump proposals before you can really dig in and criticize any of it. Certainly those economist didn't make their case in that letter far from it. In fact it reminded me a lot of that rubbish letter that the 50 plus security analysts or whomever they were wrote verifying that the Biden laptop was a Russian hoax.

 

I don't think you've made your case but let's just let it rest and enjoy another scotch

Edited Saturday at 02:32 PM by IC2000

[thaibeachlovers]

On 11/8/2024 at 2:38 PM, Bday Prang said:

So everybody who voted for him is a "poor runt"?  70+ million of them?   As opposed to the "enlightened minority" who voted for loser Harris 

loser Harris 

 

A few days on and I'm still loving it.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, IC2000 said:

The article never states how inflation will be created due to mass deportations.

I'd say because employers will not be able to exploit illegals any more and will have to pay proper wages, which will mean cost of food will go up. It's not really inflation, but the real cost of food.

The present situation is the ugly face of capitalism where scum employers exploit the vulnerable to make themselves richer.

[Tug]

Wow what a blow to America and the world.every morning I awaken to a feeling of dread and dismay.yes I’ve been here I just needed a few days to try to crawl out of this pit.every day I think of that loony rfk having a say in our health care system.for as long as it lasts that is.whats going to happen to drug prices for seniors or infrastructure the chips act?we all know that a malignant narcissist will try to destroy it just for spite.he will abandon nato Ukraine Europe and all the rest creating a vacuum for you know who to fill.from hope to despair 😞 this is not a partisan feeling I’ve voted republican many times before trump.It is a statement of what I think is coming………we will pay dearly for our racism and misogyny.

[IC2000]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'd say because employers will not be able to exploit illegals any more and will have to pay proper wages, which will mean cost of food will go up. It's not really inflation, but the real cost of food.

The present situation is the ugly face of capitalism where scum employers exploit the vulnerable to make themselves richer.

 

Lemme guess. You voted for Harris .

[jayboy]

On 11/6/2024 at 10:55 PM, tgw said:

I'm disgusted and appalled by the election results and now fear the future, even I'm not directly affected.

I feel sorry for the minority of decent people in the USA who will have to endure what will come to them.

Post-WW2 period has come to a definite end, we just entered pre-WW3 period. Scary thought.

 

I am no more a Trump fan than you are.But perhaps better reflect on why Americans gave Trump such a convincing mandate.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/09/we-can-rage-about-donald-trump-or-we-can-be-curious-about-why-he-appealed-to-so-many?CMP=share_btn_url

[mdr224]

3 hours ago, Tug said:

Wow what a blow to America and the world.every morning I awaken to a feeling of dread and dismay.yes I’ve been here I just needed a few days to try to crawl out of this pit.every day I think of that loony rfk having a say in our health care system.for as long as it lasts that is.whats going to happen to drug prices for seniors or infrastructure the chips act?we all know that a malignant narcissist will try to destroy it just for spite.he will abandon nato Ukraine Europe and all the rest creating a vacuum for you know who to fill.from hope to despair 😞 this is not a partisan feeling I’ve voted republican many times before trump.It is a statement of what I think is coming………we will pay dearly for our racism and misogyny.

Health care is already beyond broken. If democrats and liberal companies did not mandate covid vaccines in order for people to keep their jobs they may have stood a chance. You reap what you sow

[Chosenfew]

On 11/6/2024 at 5:44 PM, Tug said:

I’m sorry to all the free nations we have failed as a people Ukraine Europe England as an American I feel deep shame that we have failed you good luck.a great vacuum is being created that the bad actors are about to fill.It ain’t over but it’s deeply wounded don’t trust us don’t share information I am so sorry 😞 

 

[Chosenfew]

15 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Is that a 1000 year Golden Age?

You sure he isn't talking about his hair?

Last Laugh 

[Bday Prang]

On 11/8/2024 at 5:28 AM, BigStar said:

Were you the member who not long ago admitted to having been a teacher, so churning out hundreds, maybe thousands, of little Marxists over the course of your miserable career? 

Now there lies the biggest threat to democracy, and indeed the world as we know it, lefty brainwashed teachers, who have never lived outside the leftist controlled academic environment, let loose on our kids from the moment they are old enough to speak.and listen  It the leftie's most effective weapon and astonishingly the practice has been going on for years and the problem has never really been addressed by anybody

[Cat Boy]

Quoting Sky News is like a paid advertisement from the Trump campaign. It has NOT been officially confirmed that Trump won the popular vote, some states are still counting. Trump won more votes than he did in 2020, but not necessary more than Harris in this election, 2024. Kindly at least try to reflect objectivity, please!

[Bday Prang]

51 minutes ago, Chosenfew said:

Last Laugh 

I think its sad childish petty behaviour to mock somebody 's appearance,  Its actually what young kids do innocently, until they are taught ( by their lefty teachers) that such behaviour is unacceptable. 

Presumably the leftie's holy mantra  of accepting "diversity and the importance  inclusivity doesn't apply to anybody they "don't like"

 Firstly he is the president of the United States so shouldn't he  be due  a little respect, from both sides? and secondly any educated mature person  with real political concerns about his  future term as President would normally be criticising his policies and intentions, and asking how it will affect the country ( we adults call that constructive criticism in the grown ups world)

            Those that have chosen to criticise his hair style merely identify themselves as a childish uneducated virtue signalling hypocrites , blindly doing the bidding of the mainstream media etc

 The last laugh is on them     more so in fact following Trumps victory

And the others who openly mock his skin colour would be in meltdown if anybody had dared to do the same to Harris, would they not?

Edited Sunday at 04:01 AM by Bday Prang

[XB12X]

On 11/6/2024 at 6:56 PM, EVENKEEL said:

 

You could try writing that in English.

Viva The Don

[mogandave]

13 hours ago, candide said:

1. I 'm not arguing that tariffs may not have any benefits or other drawbacks that I didn't mention (such as other countries retaliating with tariffs), just pointing out that it contradicts Trump's promise to reduce inflation. Of course, if for some reason they are not extensively applied, the impact on inflation will be lower.

Tariffs will increase prices, unless there is sufficient market diversity and local competition. 

 

If you put tariffs on Chinese shoes, Indian shoes become more attractive, and India is more in line with US values.

13 hours ago, candide said:

 

2. It's basically the law of supply and demand. When demand for jobs is higher than supply of manpower, wages increase. Of course, it can be tempered by the factors you evoke, but it also contradicts the stated objective of reducing inflation.

In the mind of citizen, the satisfaction of having less immigrants may compensate for an increase of inflation, but that's another debate.

This is why millions of illegals benefit the rich. and hut yhe poor.

13 hours ago, candide said:

 

3. The previous tax cuts did not create much inflation because it was compensated by low priced imports, as you mentioned. However Chinese and other imports will be taxed more (again, in case the tariff policy is extensively applied), so it would not work for the new tax cuts. Not all the money made available will be spent on goods and services, that's true. So It's about how much demand and growth will be generated by tax cuts. If there is a low impact on growth, it won't generate much inflation. Actually, in case deporting immigrants may result in a decrease of the number of jobs, it will tend to reduce demand, so it may also compensate for the tax cuts effect. All in all, you may be right that tax cuts may not have a significant effect on inflation.

Raising corporate income taxes raise prices the same way tariffs do.

 

Both hurt the consumer, but raising taxes on US companies benefits imports, while imposing tariffs benefits imports. 

13 hours ago, candide said:

To sum up, these promises tend to increase inflation and tend to contradict the other promise to reduce inflation.

Their impact also depends on the extent to which the moderating factors mentioned may have an effect, and most of all on the extent to which these promises will be implemented. Depending on these uncertainties, they may not excessively increase inflation, but will certainly not contribute to reduce it.

 

You may notice that I'm not the only one to make this 'wild' claim about inflation...

https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-tariffs-taxes-immigration-federal-reserve-a18de763fcc01557258c7f33cab375ed

I generally do not support tariffs. But targeted tariffs are pretty small potatoes. 

 

 

[G_Money]

7 hours ago, Tug said:

Wow what a blow to America and the world.every morning I awaken to a feeling of dread and dismay.yes I’ve been here I just needed a few days to try to crawl out of this pit.every day I think of that loony rfk having a say in our health care system.for as long as it lasts that is.whats going to happen to drug prices for seniors or infrastructure the chips act?we all know that a malignant narcissist will try to destroy it just for spite.he will abandon nato Ukraine Europe and all the rest creating a vacuum for you know who to fill.from hope to despair 😞 this is not a partisan feeling I’ve voted republican many times before trump.It is a statement of what I think is coming………we will pay dearly for our racism and misogyny.

I must say how sweet it is not to go through life carrying what you voluntarily carry in head.

 

 

[James105]

3 hours ago, Cat Boy said:

Quoting Sky News is like a paid advertisement from the Trump campaign. It has NOT been officially confirmed that Trump won the popular vote, some states are still counting. Trump won more votes than he did in 2020, but not necessary more than Harris in this election, 2024. Kindly at least try to reflect objectivity, please!

 

Why are some states still counting?  The election was 5 days ago now.  Do they have educational problems in these states where counting is somehow difficult for the people that live there and are in charge of counting?   

[BigStar]

1 hour ago, G_Money said:

I must say how sweet it is not to go through life carrying what you voluntarily carry in head.

 

 

 

Feels like a big cloud has lifted and the sun's finally coming out.

 

And it's another good day to be at the beach in Pattaya.

 

[G_Money]

36 minutes ago, BigStar said:

 

Feels like a big cloud has lifted and the sun's finally coming out.

 

And it's another good day to be at the beach in Pattaya.

 

Yep, great weather past few days 

[BigStar]

 

[illisdean]

Trump's wasting no time. The world is reacting, peace in the ME can break out once again. Trump's rocking it out big time.

 

 

 

[illisdean]

1 minute ago, illisdean said:

Trump's rocking it out big time.

X link.

 

[mogandave]

4 hours ago, James105 said:

 

Why are some states still counting?  The election was 5 days ago now.  Do they have educational problems in these states where counting is somehow difficult for the people that live there and are in charge of counting?   

They’re still harvesting votes.

[illisdean]

8 hours ago, Chosenfew said:

Last Laugh 

Trump the women "beater".