Thai Baht Expected to Slide to 35.50 per Dollar by 2025

[snoop1130]

File photo for reference only

 

The Thai baht is forecasted to weaken, reaching 34.50 to the US dollar by the end of this year and sliding further to 35.50 in 2025, according to Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research). This comes amid new US policies expected to pressure the Chinese yuan.

 

The baht, currently at a three-month low of 34.61, fell after the US dollar strengthened following a 25 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Bank of Thailand has kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as of December 18.

 

Kanjana Chockpisansin from K-Research said, “Despite the Fed's rate cut, a strong US outlook has bolstered the dollar, weakening Asian currencies, including the baht.” The Fed now predicts only two rate cuts next year, down from four earlier, aligning Thai expectations to see two cuts in 2025.

 

As of 2023, the baht dropped by 1.2%, while the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen fell by 2.7% and 9.3%. The South Korean won saw the biggest decline at 11%, whereas the Malaysian ringgit gained 2%.

 

 

Next year, the yuan is expected to further weaken with China's slowing economy and potential US trade impacts. K-Research foresees the baht ending at 35.50 to the dollar in 2025.

 

Recent market changes include a drop in Thai stocks and a weakening yen amid unchanged borrowing costs in Japan. Gold prices dipped to nearly US$2,600 per ounce, while Bitcoin remained stable above US$100,000.

 

Economist Pipat Luengnaruemitchai predicts the Bank of Thailand will make three rate cuts in 2025, reducing policy rates to levels from 2015-2018, aiming to ease financial conditions amid inflation and slowing domestic demand.

 

-- 2024-12-20

 

 

[kevin612]

Thai baht is the strongest currency in Southeast Asia 

[har0165]

Singapore dollar is stronger, Brunei dollar is stronger as well

[Srikcir]

8 minutes ago, kevin612 said:

Thai baht is the strongest currency in Southeast Asia 

Your citation?

From asia.nikkei.com dated Nov. 13, 2019?

"Southeast Asia's strongest currency baht fights own success"

From same: "Thailand is trying to coax the baht down from six-year high territory as the currency's strength threatens local manufacturing and tourism."

Good news will be the baht slides furthe downward towards 2025.

 

 

[hotchilli]

9 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Your citation?

From asia.nikkei.com dated Nov. 13, 2019?

"Southeast Asia's strongest currency baht fights own success"

From same: "Thailand is trying to coax the baht down from six-year high territory as the currency's strength threatens local manufacturing and tourism."

Good news will be the baht slides furthe downward towards 2025.

 

 

Slide baby slide...

[nowhereman]

35.50 THB to USD? That's how much it was 5 month ago, not to mention that is was 37.00 THB 7 month ago 😉 What is all this talking about 😉 

[CallumWK]

2 minutes ago, nowhereman said:

35.50 THB to USD? That's how much it was 5 month ago, not to mention that is was 37.00 THB 7 month ago 😉 What is all this talking about 😉 

 

It was 32.30 in October

[nowhereman]

20 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

It was 32.30 in October

Mid market range for October 2024: Lowest Oct 1st =32.40; Highest Oct 29 =33.80 THB

[CallumWK]

Just now, nowhereman said:

Mid market range for October 2024: Lowest Oct 1st =32.40; Highest Oct 29 =33.80 THB

 

Oh, so sorry, I posted an about figure and left out the SIX SATANG,

 

I was only pointing out your ridiculous cherry picking.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=THB

 

 

 

 

[Isaan sailor]

Something is wrong with Thai Baht valuations.  Yesterday, the USD on Tradingview reached a multi-year high of 108.40.  And the Chinese Yen, Philippine Peso, Vietnam Dong, and Indonesia among most currencies responded with the related multi-year high for the USD.  In Thailand, the USD could only muster a five-week high.  Another way to look at it:  earlier in May and June, when the USD on Tradingview slumped to 105–the USD/Thai Baht came to 35.50

Bank of Thailand claims foreign inflows push up the Baht.  Who are the biggest foreign exchange customers?  China, Japan and Taiwan.  Sure, the Baht is not pegged to the Dollar, but they’ve suddenly set a very high bar for the USD. 

[UWEB]

6 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Something is wrong with Thai Baht valuations.  Yesterday, the USD on Tradingview reached a multi-year high of 108.40.  And the Chinese Yen, Philippine Peso, Vietnam Dong, and Indonesia among most currencies responded with the related multi-year high for the USD.  In Thailand, the USD could only muster a five-week high.  Another way to look at it:  earlier in May and June, when the USD on Tradingview slumped to 105–the USD/Thai Baht came to 35.50

Bank of Thailand claims foreign inflows push up the Baht.  Who are the biggest foreign exchange customers?  China, Japan and Taiwan.  Sure, the Baht is not pegged to the Dollar, but they’ve suddenly set a very high bar for the USD. 

It's Holiday high Season, so the Central Bank keeps the Bath stronger.

[Isaan sailor]

3 minutes ago, UWEB said:

It's Holiday high Season, so the Central Bank keeps the

4 minutes ago, UWEB said:

It's Holiday high Season, so the Central Bank keeps the Bath stronger.

Bath stronger.

It’s also holiday high season in China, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, but they don’t keep their currencies unreasonably high.  Do the comparison.

[chiang mai]

10 minutes ago, UWEB said:

It's Holiday high Season, so the Central Bank keeps the Bath stronger.

Yes, they make their imported oil, much more expensive, on purpose........not!

[nowhereman]

41 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

Oh, so sorry, I posted an about figure and left out the SIX SATANG,

 

I was only pointing out your ridiculous cherry picking.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=THB

 

 

 

 

It's all good. Not everyone has to be in the same camp. Hope that in the next year everything works out well for you.

[GreasyFingers]

4 hours ago, CallumWK said:

 

It was 32.30 in October

And what was the USD in October - not 108+. On a straight comparison to the USD the baht should be a lot weaker.

[Gknrd]

Dollar is strong all over the world. I am in Colombia again as of three days ago. 4380 I think was my exchange rate. Last time here it got down as low as 3800 I believe. I am loving it.  If in Thailand it is time to buy and bank the Baht.

[Isaan sailor]

1 minute ago, Gknrd said:

Dollar is strong all over the world. I am in Colombia again as of three days ago. 4380 I think was my exchange rate. Last time here it got down as low as 3800 I believe. I am loving it.  If in Thailand it is time to buy and bank the Baht.

Thanks for your update.  USD is not strong in Thailand.   We have foreign inflows that jack the Baht.  Funny, every country has foreign inflows, but Thailand must have way more.  Last I checked at Wise, USD 34.33, so by the time we get it, we lose 1% or more.  That puts it down in 33.xx.  Not exactly strong here.  Last May, the USD was weaker—but we got a much better rate—35 to 36.

[Celsius]

nope. I predict 29 baht after Trump euphoria is done

[Gknrd]

30 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Thanks for your update.  USD is not strong in Thailand.   We have foreign inflows that jack the Baht.  Funny, every country has foreign inflows, but Thailand must have way more.  Last I checked at Wise, USD 34.33, so by the time we get it, we lose 1% or more.  That puts it down in 33.xx.  Not exactly strong here.  Last May, the USD was weaker—but we got a much better rate—35 to 36.

 If I was there I would definitely be banking some Baht.  Dollar is predicted to be crazy strong for the foreseeable future. Take advantage of it if you can.

[Ben Zioner]

6 hours ago, CallumWK said:

 

It was 32.30 in October

Yeah normal rate is 28.5810 as it was in March 20, 2013.

 

[NoDisplayName]

On 12/20/2024 at 7:13 PM, snoop1130 said:

The Thai baht is forecasted to weaken, reaching 34.50 to the US dollar by the end of this year

 

Daily Rate Alert

The exchange rate at 01:59 GMT on December 20 was

1 USD 34.56 THB Send money

[Elkski]

 But 39 would be nice

[novacova]

On 12/20/2024 at 7:13 PM, snoop1130 said:

Thai Baht Expected to Slide to 35.50 per Dollar by 2025

So this means it’s expected be at 35.50 within the next ten days 

[CallumWK]

20 minutes ago, novacova said:

So this means it’s expected be at 35.50 within the next ten days 

 

The OP doesn't say that.

 

On 12/20/2024 at 7:13 PM, snoop1130 said:

The Thai baht is forecasted to weaken, reaching 34.50 to the US dollar by the end of this year

 

 

and sliding further to 35.50 IN 2025,

 

Do you see somewhere the words BY 2025 in the OP?

 

I see it says that in the thread title, but as usual these days, title doesn't corresponded with what is in the OP.

[CallumWK]

1 hour ago, Ben Zioner said:

Yeah normal rate is 28.5810 as it was in March 20, 2013.

 

 

I don't know how to calculate average exchange rate over 10 years, but I estimate it is somewhere in the low 30"s

[CallumWK]

3 hours ago, GreasyFingers said:

And what was the USD in October - not 108+. On a straight comparison to the USD the baht should be a lot weaker.

 

With 108+ I assume you mean the dollar index, which is the dollar value against a basket of 6 major currencies. Thai baht is not included in the index.

 

7 hours ago, nowhereman said:

It's all good. Not everyone has to be in the same camp. Hope that in the next year everything works out well for you.

 

How the exchange rate evolves has no influence at all on my, because firstly I'm not an American, and my money is already in Thailand, so I will not have to transfer again.

 

Only thing I worry about is, that I want to buy gold to beat the 2% interest you get in the bank, but lately gold price and USD/THB exchange go hand in hand.

When gold price increase in USD, the THB get stronger at the same time, and vice versa, thereby limiting the price movement in Thai baht.

[lordgrinz]

Wake me up when it reaches 38+ THB to the USD

[freedomnow]

Ring the bell time.

[GreasyFingers]

10 hours ago, CallumWK said:

With 108+ I assume you mean the dollar index, which is the dollar value against a basket of 6 major currencies. Thai baht is not included in the index.

As if I did not know that. You did not explain why the baht has not fallen a comparable amount to the USD like other currencies.

[CallumWK]

43 minutes ago, GreasyFingers said:

You did not explain why the baht has not fallen a comparable amount to the USD like other currencies.

 

Of course I didn't, I leave that to the experts like you. I guess you have compared the baht to the other 172 currencies that are not in the index?

I'm all ears.