File photo courtesy: Facebook Thai Navy

 

As the Thai government, led by Pheu Thai, navigates the complex waters of military procurement and diplomatic relations, intense discussions over the acquisition of frigates and submarines are coming to a head. At stake are maritime security needs and international partnerships, notably with China and Germany.

 

The Royal Thai Navy is prioritising the acquisition of four high-performance frigates, each priced at approximately 17.50 billion baht. These vessels are deemed essential for Thailand to maintain a strong naval presence in both the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. The current fleet includes four frigates: HTMS Bhumibol, HTMS Taksin, HTMS Naresuan, and HTMS Rattanakosin. However, the Navy asserts that eight are essential by 2037 to meet strategic defence goals.

 

Yet, the procurement project faced a setback as it was rejected by a special committee dominated by Pheu Thai MPs. They raised concerns about the defence budget potentially detracting from the government’s economic stimulation policies.

 

Similarly contentious is the issue of submarine procurement. The ongoing saga involves three submarines initially estimated to cost 13.5 billion baht each. Central to this delay is the question of sourcing engines, spurring discussions with Chinese and German ambassadors. Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai aims to finalise procurement within six months, considering whether Germany might directly supply the engines, even if it involves complex technical installations.

The potential inauguration of Donald Trump as US President adds another layer of uncertainty. His administration may influence Thailand's military procurement strategies and international dealings, particularly concerning military technology cooperation.

 

Phumtham also noted Thailand has been observing Pakistan’s evaluation of Chinese-manufactured submarines, though obtaining detailed findings remains elusive due to security confidentiality.

 

In the light of these challenges, a pause in the procurement of these submarines or a complete cancellation could be considered. However, this decision carries the risk of straining Thailand's diplomatic relations with China, which might also affect broader initiatives like the high-speed rail project connecting the two nations.

 

Furthermore, any shift in these defence plans might impact relations with Cambodia, particularly concerning overlapping claims over areas like Koh Kut Island. The memorandum of understanding known as MOU44 stands as a backdrop where any reassessment could have significant repercussions.

 

As these considerations unfold, the Thai government and Navy must walk a fine line—balancing defence capabilities and economic policies while managing international relationships delicately. As 2024 progresses, these decisions will shape Thailand’s strategic posture and regional influence, reported Thae Nation.

 

-- 2025-01-04

 

 

 

Rational decision-making would have cancelled the submarine long ago (with quiet thanks to the German government in reaching that end).

 

And the thanks could be made concrete (so to speak) by ordering the new frigates from Germany.

Following is something I wrote on AN before, but I feel it bears repeating:

 

The Thai government should use its limited resources to put Thais to work on infrastructure projects that will contribute to future direct foreign investment.  Yet their military folks have convinced the gov't to still consider purchase of a CCP submarine (an extremely expensive life cycle operational proposition). Some Navy bigwigs want to feel important without any hint of a deep-water strategic need.  The sad thing is the long-term strategic political & military implications (CCP blackmail).

 

Yet, the apparently blind Thai Minister of Defense, Phumtham, stated that the diplomatic relationship with China was a good reason to purchase the damn thing.  What nonsense.  Thailand will be dependent upon PRC submarine model specific Doctrine, Organization, Training, Logistics and Materiel upgrades, & thus subject to CCP unreliability /blackmail.  Undoubtedly there will be PRC advisors in Thailand for these functions and they will be doing their CCP required intelligence gathering while here. 

 

On AN there are the never-ending accusations of brown bag-patronage-corruption co-dependencies in Thailand, & despite being accusations they have legitimate basis in fact.  I recently watched a video interview with Erik Prince where he claimed direct observation-discussion with CCP military officials providing him evidence of CCP appropriations of money for brown-bag payoffs to foreign military officials willing to do CCP bidding.  

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Germany might directly supply the engines, even if it involves complex technical installations.

No. Germany has not and will not supply its engines to China in Chinese built subs to be purchased by Thailand. 

Just how does one perform a political U-turn in a submarine?😋