• Quantum Strategy’s David Roche said “NATO is dead” as the US distances itself from European allies and warms up to Russia. That makes Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping the big winners and the US the “big loser,” he added, with Japan’s yen displacing the dollar as the world’s safe haven currency.

An American promise is looking more doubtful as the US upends traditional geopolitics, with repercussions in global financial markets, according to Quantum Strategy’s David Roche.

https://fortune.com/2025/03/09/us-treaty-nato-ukraine-russia-trump-japan-yen-safe-haven-dedollarization/

 

There's also the fact that Trump is violating a trade agreement, the USMCA, the impetus for which he himself initiated and then signed onto.

It seems unlikely, Japan has been replaced by China as economic powerhouse of Asia.

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

• Quantum Strategy’s David Roche said “NATO is dead” as the US distances itself from European allies and warms up to Russia. That makes Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping the big winners and the US the “big loser,” he added, with Japan’s yen displacing the dollar as the world’s safe haven currency.

An American promise is looking more doubtful as the US upends traditional geopolitics, with repercussions in global financial markets, according to Quantum Strategy’s David Roche.

https://fortune.com/2025/03/09/us-treaty-nato-ukraine-russia-trump-japan-yen-safe-haven-dedollarization/

 

There's also the fact that Trump is violating a trade agreement, the USMCA, the impetus for which he himself initiated and then signed onto.

 

David Roche is Irish and of course the Irish love to make up stories. 

 

The Japanese Yen has no more replaced the US Dollar as a safe haven currency than Canadian bacon. In fact the Japanese Yen has been FALLING against the US dollar for a very long time.

'

I can only imagine David Roche was joking. Or else he's lost his mind.

Japan apparently has ditched the dollar by selling all its Treasury bonds. A straw in the wind.

 

 

15 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

It seems unlikely, Japan has been replaced by China as economic powerhouse of Asia.

Japan holds more US debt than China, in terms of US Treasury bonds.

Basically we have a reaction to USExit...

Brexit on steroids... As it includes most of our traditional allies along with China...

 

Curious to hear from a few Brits...

How is the whole Brexit thing going?... 

Any Greatness to report?... 

The truth of the matters cited is best demonstrated by the reputation and nationality of the posters pushing just another Trump diatribe.

 

Getting nervous about the spigots being turned off? Scared  to grow a pair and face Vlad by yourselves?

 

Wonder how the businesses in Mannheim are going to feel when that last plane takes off.

2 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

The truth of the matters cited is best demonstrated by the reputation and nationality of the posters pushing just another Trump diatribe.

 

Getting nervous about the spigots being turned off? Scared  to grow a pair and face Vlad by yourselves?

 

Wonder how the businesses in Mannheim are going to feel when that last plane takes off.

Daftest post of the week, from someone that doesn't practice what he preaches.........

41 minutes ago, placeholder said:

There's also the fact that Trump is violating a trade agreement, the USMCA, the impetus for which he himself initiated and then signed onto.

 

 

Hahaha!  Silly man.

 

First rule of Rules-Based International Order:

Treaties are for other countries to follow.

 

"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

 

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

It seems unlikely, Japan has been replaced by China as economic powerhouse of Asia.

China doesn't allow the yuan to float freely. So no rational person is going to park their money there.

27 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

The truth of the matters cited is best demonstrated by the reputation and nationality of the posters pushing just another Trump diatribe.

 

Getting nervous about the spigots being turned off? Scared  to grow a pair and face Vlad by yourselves?

 

Wonder how the businesses in Mannheim are going to feel when that last plane takes off.

Another stupid evidence - free allegation about a member's nationality.

As for how Europeans are going to feel about when the Americans leave?. Pretty stupid for having ever trusted America. Just like so many private parties feel about having put their trust in Trump's keeping his word when it comes to contracts.

22 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:

 

 

Hahaha!  Silly man.

 

First rule of Rules-Based International Order:

Treaties are for other countries to follow.

 

"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

That's an anonymous quote from Woodward's book about the Bush administration's conduct of the Iraq war. Supposedly it came from Karl Rove. And the usual consequences of overweening hubris ensued.

57 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

David Roche is Irish and of course the Irish love to make up stories. 

 

The Japanese Yen has no more replaced the US Dollar as a safe haven currency than Canadian bacon. In fact the Japanese Yen has been FALLING against the US dollar for a very long time.

'

I can only imagine David Roche was joking. Or else he's lost his mind.

Not surprising to read slurs based on nationality coming from you.

As a matter of fact, the Japanese yen has been rising for the last 2 months or so. And the fact that the yen has been falling for a very long time and is now rising maybe should tell you something.

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Another stupid evidence - free allegation about a member's nationality.

It does for how Europeans are going to feel about when the Americans leave. Pretty stupid for having ever trusted America. Just like so many private parties feel about having put their trust in Trump's keeping his word when it comes to contracts.

In the real world, trust and respect get you nowhere.

 

Fear gets you everywhere. Respect comes from the fear.

 

You guys sound like whiney soon to be ex wives. Codependency is done and all your crying about unfairness and being mean and trust blah blah blah are just empty words.

 

My suggestion should be perhaps devote your energy to important topics such as:

 

How will Europe Replace Russian gas

Should Europe Even the Tariff Playing Field

Is a European Army Practical

What Social Benefits need to be Cut to Pay for European Defense

In Light of the Cowardly Nature of Western European Youth, Should the Eastern European form a Separate Military Bloc

Whats Does Germanys Reversal of Class Interests in the Recent Election say about the future of Leftist parties in Europe

How Does the Green Agenda affect European Power generation and Industrial Expansion

 

But hey, you guys just keep whining about how mean we are. Thats important to you evidently. The above isnt.

33 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:

First rule of Rules-Based International Order:

Treaties are for other countries to follow.

Cant have utopia without the boss, and there isnt a better boss than us. We make the rules. 

 

You guys have your own worries. Our worry is China. Im sure you will get your chance to choose your master someday.

12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Not surprising to read slurs based on nationality coming from you.

As a matter of fact, the Japanese yen has been rising for the last 2 months or so. And the fact that the yen has been falling for a very long time and is now rising maybe should tell you something.

 

Lol, this was a "Squawk Box" CNBC show, where one unknwon woman analyst claimed the Japanese economy will grow stronger. Roche agreed and alluded to Europe and the US being "uncertain" and how this could make Japan more of a safe haven. This is basically page 3 journalism for finance, they say outrageous things for attention.

 

In reality this is the performance of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar:

 

13 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And the fact that the yen has been falling for a very long time and is now rising maybe should tell you something.

 

Yes indeed, it tells me traders have taken note of the BOJ pronouncements to support the Yen.

 

But as you can see, the Yen is in a clear downtrend against the Dollar, the recent short lived rally is hardly an indication of trend. Lol.

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Japan holds more US debt than China, in terms of US Treasury bonds.

Japan has massive debt

20 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Fear gets you everywhere. Respect comes from the fear.

It's true, if you rely on another country or new world order organisation to protect your countries interests, you're gonna get a kicking!

 

Just look at the UK, leave the EU to try and stop the influx of uneducated barbarians, and the UN tells you to load up with Afghans.

1 hour ago, Yagoda said:

The truth of the matters cited is best demonstrated by the reputation and nationality of the posters pushing just another Trump diatribe.

 

Getting nervous about the spigots being turned off? Scared  to grow a pair and face Vlad by yourselves?

 

Wonder how the businesses in Mannheim are going to feel when that last plane takes off.

 

What spigots? US has not been funding the EU.

The reality is that Russia did not pose a threat to many EU members, or Canada. The constant intrusions into Canada by Russian nuclear armed aircraft was a threat to US security not Canada. The USA needs the EU and others to protect its shipping routes. The USA economy is trade dependent and if it cannot import the materials it needs, its economy flounders. Time to start  considering the ramifications if the rest of the world stops purchasing US products and/or stops selling to the USA at preferred prices. All that is needed to  cause the USA economy to tailspin is a reduction in its exports of 10%. 5% will result in layoffs and loss of tax revenues.

 

19 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Japan has massive debt

 

So does the USA. Only the USA's Trump  is threatening to default on its  debt.

26 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Cant have utopia without the boss, and there isnt a better boss than us. We make the rules. 

You guys have your own worries. Our worry is China. Im sure you will get your chance to choose your master someday.

 US consumer market is dependent on China. If China stops selling to the USA, Walmart, Costco and others will  be empty of products. The Chinese are a lot stronger and more unified that the USA. They can go without fancy things. Deny an American his pork rinds and the trailer parks will erupt in riots.

 

How will Europe Replace Russian gas - They have done so with  Gulf Arab imports. Canada is about to change its energy export policy and we may see one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves  made available.

Should Europe Even the Tariff Playing Field- How about the US removing its trade barriers? The US has some of the toughest.

Is a European Army Practical Yes.It can be structured as per the existing NATO protocols. At the very least Germany can train with France and the UK. 

What Social Benefits need to be Cut to Pay for European Defense -None

In Light of the Cowardly Nature of Western European Youth, Should the Eastern European form a Separate Military Bloc- They are already integrated  with the western  EU. There is no Eastern EU now other than Romania and Bulgaria, and they are  backward states to begin with.

Whats Does Germanys Reversal of Class Interests in the Recent Election say about the future of Leftist parties in Europe- The social progressive movement remains strong and will not disappear.

How Does the Green Agenda affect European Power generation and Industrial Expansion - Have you read the Green proposals? Some are  quite intelligent and forward  thinking. They focus on resilience, efficiency and sustainability.

 

If the USA doesn't participate and respect others, it will not have a seat at the table and will have little influence.

 

 

1 minute ago, Patong2021 said:

 

What spigots? US has not been funding the EU.

The reality is that Russia did not pose a threat to many EU members, or Canada. The constant intrusions into Canada by Russian nuclear armed aircraft was a threat to US security not Canada. The USA needs the EU and others to protect its shipping routes. The USA economy is trade dependent and if it cannot import the materials it needs, its economy flounders. Time to start  considering the ramifications if the rest of the world stops purchasing US products and/or stops selling to the USA at preferred prices. All that is needed to  cause the USA economy to tailspin is a reduction in its exports of 10%. 5% will result in layoffs and loss of tax revenues.

 

 

So does the USA. Only the USA's Trump  is threatening to default on its  debt.

 US consumer market is dependent on China. If China stops selling to the USA, Walmart, Costco and others will  be empty of products. The Chinese are a lot stronger and more unified that the USA. They can go without fancy things. Deny an American his pork rinds and the trailer parks will erupt in riots.

 

How will Europe Replace Russian gas - They have done so with  Gulf Arab imports. Canada is about to change its energy export policy and we may see one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves  made availablke.

Should Europe Even the Tariff Playing Field- How about the US removing its trade barriers? The US has some of the toughest.

Is a European Army Practical Yes.It can be structured as per the existing NATA protocols. At the very least Germany can train with France and the UK. 

What Social Benefits need to be Cut to Pay for European Defense -None

In Light of the Cowardly Nature of Western European Youth, Should the Eastern European form a Separate Military Bloc- They are already integrated  with the western  EU. There is no Eastern EU now other than Romania and Bulgaria, and they are  backward states to begin with.

Whats Does Germanys Reversal of Class Interests in the Recent Election say about the future of Leftist parties in Europe- The social progressive movement remains strong and will not disappear.

How Does the Green Agenda affect European Power generation and Industrial Expansion - Have you read the Green proposals? Some are  quite intelligent and forward  thinking. They focus on resilience, efficiency and sustainability.

 

 

 

Japan's government debt as a percentage of GDP stood at 216.3% in December 2024, according to the latest quarterly data.23 This figure indicates a slight decrease from 217.4% in September 2024.2 However, projections from Trading Economics suggest that the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 252.00% by the end of 2025.4 In the long term, it is forecasted to trend around 250.00% of GDP in 2026 and 248.00% of GDP in 2027.

23 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Lol, this was a "Squawk Box" CNBC show, where one unknwon woman analyst claimed the Japanese economy will grow stronger. Roche agreed and alluded to Europe and the US being "uncertain" and how this could make Japan more of a safe haven. This is basically page 3 journalism for finance, they say outrageous things for attention.

 

In reality this is the performance of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar:

 

What in that chart contradicts what I wrote?

Oh by the way:

 

"Quantum Strategy" is NOT an investment fund and not to be confused with the Quantum group of funds. Nothing to do with the latter.

 

Quantum Strategy is just a research firm founded by David Roche.

Nobody will trust a US treaty again

 

 

Pretty sure Native Americans already illustrated the fickleness of a treaty with the U.S. government.

 

The U.S. government entered into roughly 374 treaties with Native American nations between 1772 and 1867, and many of these were not respected or were outright broken, with Native Americans and First Nations peoples still fighting for their treaty rights. 

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Number of Treaties:

From 1772 to 1867, the U.S. government and Native American tribes signed and ratified approximately 374 treaties. 

 

Treaty Violations:
Many of these treaties were not respected, and some were outright broken by the U.S. government. 

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What in that chart contradicts what I wrote?

 

Everything, you can CLEARLY see the US dollar has MASSIVELY outperformed the Japanese Yen and the risk of the latter replacing the USD as a safe haven currency is close to nil.

 

David Roche should stick to studying the fall of the Berlin wall. Clearly FOREX is not his best subject.

6 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

Time to start  considering the ramifications if the rest of the world stops purchasing US products and/or stops selling to the USA at preferred prices. All that is needed to  cause the USA economy to tailspin is a reduction in its exports of 10%.

 

Well done for maintaining your record of getting EVERY SINGLE post completely wrong.

 

In fact the US economy has the strongest domestic market in the entire world. If the whole world stopped selling to the US or buying US products the US economy would continue very strong, obviously affected but still very much intact. Whereas the rest of the world would suffer terribly without the economic engine that is the USA.

 

See, the US is NOT an export dependent economy the way Japan or Germany are. It has its own very strong domestic market.

7 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

The reality is that Russia did not pose a threat to many EU members, or Canada.

Thats not how you guys act.

 

8 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

What spigots? US has not been funding the EU.

The reality is that Russia did not pose a threat to many EU members, or Canada. The constant intrusions into Canada by Russian nuclear armed aircraft was a threat to US security not Canada. The USA needs the EU and others to protect its shipping routes. The USA economy is trade dependent and if it cannot import the materials it needs, its economy flounders. Time to start  considering the ramifications if the rest of the world stops purchasing US products and/or stops selling to the USA at preferred prices. All that is needed to  cause the USA economy to tailspin is a reduction in its exports of 10%. 5% will result in layoffs and loss of tax revenues.

 

 

So does the USA. Only the USA's Trump  is threatening to default on its  debt.

 US consumer market is dependent on China. If China stops selling to the USA, Walmart, Costco and others will  be empty of products. The Chinese are a lot stronger and more unified that the USA. They can go without fancy things. Deny an American his pork rinds and the trailer parks will erupt in riots.

 

How will Europe Replace Russian gas - They have done so with  Gulf Arab imports. Canada is about to change its energy export policy and we may see one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves  made available.

Should Europe Even the Tariff Playing Field- How about the US removing its trade barriers? The US has some of the toughest.

Is a European Army Practical Yes.It can be structured as per the existing NATO protocols. At the very least Germany can train with France and the UK. 

What Social Benefits need to be Cut to Pay for European Defense -None

In Light of the Cowardly Nature of Western European Youth, Should the Eastern European form a Separate Military Bloc- They are already integrated  with the western  EU. There is no Eastern EU now other than Romania and Bulgaria, and they are  backward states to begin with.

Whats Does Germanys Reversal of Class Interests in the Recent Election say about the future of Leftist parties in Europe- The social progressive movement remains strong and will not disappear.

How Does the Green Agenda affect European Power generation and Industrial Expansion - Have you read the Green proposals? Some are  quite intelligent and forward  thinking. They focus on resilience, efficiency and sustainability.

 

If the USA doesn't participate and respect others, it will not have a seat at the table and will have little influence.

 

 

Dont address it to me bro, you are the ex wife and the door is slamming shut. Seems like you got it all mapped out then? Figure it out, Im not even going to debate your skewed, simplistic  facts. If your fellow Euros let you get away with it, bully for you guys then LOL.

2 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Well done for maintaining your record of getting EVERY SINGLE post completely wrong.

 

In fact the US economy has the strongest domestic market in the entire world. If the whole world stopped selling to the US or buying US products the US economy would continue very strong, obviously affected but still very much intact. Whereas the rest of the world would suffer terribly without the economic engine that is the USA.

 

See, the US is NOT an export dependent economy the way Japan or Germany are. It has its own very strong domestic market.

Yeah if the world cuts us off, Ill have to find a new toaster at a garage sale.

Just now, Yagoda said:

Yeah if the world cuts us off, Ill have to find a new toaster at a garage sale.

 

Of course it could never happen. If ever the US economic incentives fail the US could simply take what it wants with its superior military. Let's hope and pray that will never happen and the worst we're exposed to is economic coercion.