1. Be Rich. 😄

 

In 2004, I knew the US Real Estate bubble was getting ready to pop when I was at the gym in

[3rd tier American Midwestern beer/furniture/art city] and overheard a fitness trainer talk about how he was going to get rich by buying Residential Real Estate.

 

Unfortunately for me I knew of no way to benefit.

 

There was no way to benefit from the almost certain falling prices of RRE.

 

Which wouldn't burst until three or four more years of bubble expansion in 2007-2008.

 

Ever watched the movie the Big Short?

 

I felt the same way in the 00s.

 

George W Bush inflated the cost of housing.

 

I knew RRE as an investment was a scam.  

 

There's no way to benefit from rising housing prices even if you own your own home, except by moving to a cheaper location or downsizing.

 

It's madness.

 

Made no sense for housing prices to increase faster than average wages.

 

Read about who allowed the fictional securities that allowed personal trainers to buy houses they couldn't afford to "flip" them and "get rich".

 

It wasn't "liberals" or Democrats.

 

RRE was the 00's era Bitcoin Ponzi scheme of the GOP.

 

The GOP screwed Americans.

 

So how can working class people benefit from a stock market crash?

 

Summary: "Not possible" without  risking 100% loss of capital 😀

 

 

Yes, individuals can benefit financially from a stock market crash, though it comes with significant risk. Here are some common strategies:

---

1. Short Selling

You borrow shares of a stock and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price.

If the stock drops, you profit from the difference.

Risk: If the stock rises instead, losses are potentially unlimited.

---

2. Put Options

You buy the right (but not the obligation) to sell a stock at a set price.

If the stock price crashes, the put option becomes much more valuable.

Risk: You lose the premium paid for the option if the crash doesn’t happen.

---

3. Inverse ETFs

These are funds designed to move opposite to a market index (e.g., S&P 500).

Example: If the market drops 2%, an inverse ETF might go up 2%.

Risk: Best for short-term trades; not ideal for long-term holding due to daily resets.

---

4. Buying Volatility (VIX-related instruments)

Volatility tends to spike during crashes.

Traders can use options or ETFs linked to the VIX (Volatility Index) to profit.

Risk: These instruments are complex and can decay in value over time.

---

5. Buying After the Crash

Once prices bottom out, smart investors buy undervalued stocks at bargain prices.

Requires patience and timing.

Risk: Catching a “falling knife” too early can lead to losses.

 

Thanks. A pity there is no way to maintain wealth when cash and markets are declining- without risking everything.

Gave up reading OP after a couple silly statements.  He should listed to the gym guy, and invested in RE back in 2004.   If just renting to cover the mortgage & taxes, the appreciation over 20 yrs would make you a millionaire, if buying and selling only 5 house, 1 extra to sell to cover taxes, maybe.  4 X 250k = 1 Mill and a nice retirement.

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

 

 

12 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Gave up reading OP after a couple silly statements.  He should listed to the gym guy,

I would have gotten rich from buying a house during a nationwide real estate crash?

Yeah, right.

Slumlord dreams. 😴

 

If you own RRE, if there's no tenant you have a 100% loss that month.

Even if you have a tenant, they could damage your property and strip it out to the walls, even pulling the wires out (if they got enough meth) costing you $$$$$ lots of money.

And then there's the late night calls to come unclog the toilet after they try and flush tampons down every month, if you have female tenants who are dumb or lazy.

Yeah, great advice. 🙈

 

5 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

I would have gotten rich from buying a house during a nationwide real estate crash?

Yeah, right.

Slumlord dreams. 😴

 

If you own RRE, if there's no tenant you have a 100% loss that month.

Even if you have a tenant, they could damage your property and strip it out to the walls, even pulling the wires out (if they got enough meth) costing you $$$$$ lots of money.

And then there's the late night calls to come unclog the toilet after they try and flush tampons down every month, if you have female tenants who are dumb or lazy.

Yeah, great advice. 🙈

I bought my first house, in a terrible economic time, Pres. Carter.  14% adjustable mortgage, that everyone that I was nuts for getting, as prior interest rates had done nothing but go up.  

 

Unemployment was just as bad, I worked 80 hrs a week and took on a roommate to pay the mortgage.  But it beat the hell out of throwing money away on renting.

 

Bought a fixer upper, because that's all I could barely afford.  But the 'sweat equity' paid off, and interest rates came down, from day one of owning.  

 

Turned that into a triplex, and a slum lord was born.  Bought 2 more properties, and those rentals, all let me live in the USA basically rent, housing cost free, most of my time in the USA, and same as I live here in TH, for 25 yrs.  Land being best investment here, TH.

 

Crap tenants are part of the game, but it beats not doing nothing, and depending on others, (employers) which for me, has never worked.

5 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Crap tenants are part of the game, but it beats not doing nothing, and depending on others, (employers) which for me, has never worked.

Sure, I would expect if your only expectation is to "live free" then all the work and financial risk you take to be in the slumlord business would meet your needs.

However the last time I worked (in person --not remotely) I paid only 11.5% of my gross W2 income working for someone else in....

The San Francisco area.

I was 20 minutes walking distance to the train station. 

Could go downtown San Francisco or down to Palo Alto or San Jose, easy pea-sy.

Cheap.

In fact, it was preferable over having to finance a $2M house in the same neighborhood, which would have cost 98% of my income.

Insane.  Extremely risky.

Renting was fine.

Because I made bank, Buckaroo.

 

Living in your own home is fine, but it's better not to be an unemployable slumlord and preferable to make lots of money and rent.

Because I wasn't poor, I ate nice meals in "The City" typically costing 3 digits per meal, instead of eating ramen or rice and beans in my own house (essentially the same house I was renting an apartment in).

 

Cheers!  😁

If you truly believed POTUS candidate Harris that Trump will wreck the American economy and in part POTUS candidate Trump himself that he was going to start a worldwide tariff war once elected, you could have gambled using "short selling."

"Short selling is a strategy where traders profit from a decline in the price of an asset, often a stock. In a short sale, investors borrow shares of a stock they believe will fall in value, sell those shares on the open market, and later buy them back at a lower price to return to the lender."

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100913/basics-short-selling.asp

While Musk lost $4.4 billion on April 7 and $134.7 billion cumulative so far this year, with Tesla shares falling over 50% since mid-December, a billionaire risk taker might chance short selling the stock.

37 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

Sure, I would expect if your only expectation is to "live free" then all the work and financial risk you take to be in the slumlord business would meet your needs.

However the last time I worked (in person --not remotely) I paid only 11.5% of my gross W2 income working for someone else in....

The San Francisco area.

I was 20 minutes walking distance to the train station. 

Could go downtown San Francisco or down to Palo Alto or San Jose, easy pea-sy.

Cheap.

In fact, it was preferable over having to finance a $2M house in the same neighborhood, which would have cost 98% of my income.

Insane.  Extremely risky.

Renting was fine.

Because I made bank, Buckaroo.

 

Living in your own home is fine, but it's better not to be an unemployable slumlord and preferable to make lots of money and rent.

Because I wasn't poor, I ate nice meals in "The City" typically costing 3 digits per meal, instead of eating ramen or rice and beans in my own house (essentially the same house I was renting an apartment in).

 

Cheers!  😁

Goes way beyond living rent free.  That was just a nice perk, not having what most people's highest monthly expense was, housing.

 

Being a slumlord, allows you plenty of time to work, for employer and or yourself.  RE runs on auto pilot 99% of the time.  Most of my tenants were very long stayer.

 

Once mortgages paid off, ASAP, all less than 5 year, last house actually bought for cash.  Then the rents were all profit.  And only reported the income, from the ones that were Section 8, gov't paid rents.

 

Along with ~20 years of appreciation.  As sold off, rolled into the market, more profit, less work.  The ol' work smarter not harder, that one should live by.

 

Made money in the market just prior to Y2K scam, the even better, during and after the crash.  Bush 2 president, and move to oil speculation stocks.  Seemed a no brainer. 

 

Last liquidation of all was 2006/2007.  With one exception, waited for NWA to fold, when DL was speculating buying, a little inside trading.  Quick 'rumor' buy in & out, just before the ticker died, for really nice profit.

 

Don't do defense stocks, as I draw the line there.  One must have some morals 

34 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

If you truly believed POTUS candidate Harris that Trump will wreck the American economy and in part POTUS candidate Trump himself that he was going to start a worldwide tariff war once elected, you could have gambled using "short selling."

"Short selling is a strategy where traders profit from a decline in the price of an asset, often a stock. In a short sale, investors borrow shares of a stock they believe will fall in value, sell those shares on the open market, and later buy them back at a lower price to return to the lender."

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100913/basics-short-selling.asp

While Musk lost $4.4 billion on April 7 and $134.7 billion cumulative so far this year, with Tesla shares falling over 50% since mid-December, a billionaire risk taker might chance short selling the stock.

Musk didn't and won't lose anything, until he sells it, and only if below the price 'he received it for'.   Guessing he'll never actually take a loss on Tesla stock 

 

Only thing dropped, is his current 'net worth', and pretty sure he's not concerned 

13 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Musk didn't and won't lose anything, until he sells it, and only if below the price 'he received it for'.   Guessing he'll never actually take a loss on Tesla stock 

 

Only thing dropped, is his current 'net worth', and pretty sure he's not concerned 

As I understand it (from previous AN posts) he only holds 13% of Tesla stocks.

1 hour ago, Srikcir said:

you could have gambled using "short selling."

Or I could have gambled on #32 on the roulette wheel.

Difference is on my roulette gamble, my potential loss is only 100% of my investment.

 

When you short a stock, you borrow shares and sell them, hoping the price goes down so you can buy them back cheaper.

 

But if the stock price rises instead, your losses can be unlimited because there's no cap on how high a stock can go.

 

That’s what makes it riskier than just buying a stock (where your max loss is 100%).

 

"Unlimited Loss Potential"

 

But thanks for mentioning the most risky investment strategy ever invented.

 

You must be an investment Jenius. 

 

Wanna play poker sometime?  Nice friendly game, whatever money you can spare. 😄

 

This one's primarily for @Harrisfan, @Yagoda and @Cameroni but may be of interest to others.

There are trading opportunities in all markets - even volatile ones like these.

I saw an opportunity this evening so I couldn't resist.  I'll explain the rationale behind it.



Above is the 5-minute chart of the Dow.  I'll come back to this in a minute.

 

This is the daily chart for the Dow.

Rationale Explanation

There are turns (big and small) in the markets every 8 days on average (I did state recently that sentiment and TIME drives markets...).  We've just had 7 days down from the minor top on 26th March and two days of movement up since then.  I'm counting 26th March as one of my minor turns and Mondy as a turn back up again.  N.B. Sundays don't count on the futures markets - they're not a trading day.

I should hasten to point out that there are 8 days between turns as an average (as already stated) and can be as low as 1 day or higher than 8, but not by much.  You have been warned.

Taking the recent bottom (I used Sunday's bottom for extra safety), I then did a Fibonacci retracement on the 1-hour chart (see below).  Most people think about 62% or 78% retracements but these are volatile markets so there are two higher numbers that I like - 88.6% and 94.1%.  If you're interested I'll explain where they were derived from but back to the plot...

You'll see that the retracement from Sunday night has just about hit the 94.1% line.  Furthermore tonight, when I was looking at it, there was an apparent move starting up which had also retraced 94.1% (see the 5-minute chart above).  I opened a buy with the stop at Sunday night.

Also, the divergence in the stochastic on the 5-minute chart was very much in my favour (see below).  Reminder - a momentum indicator like the Stochastic usually goes up when the market is going up, and vice versa.  However, the last few bars on the 5-minute went almost as low as the preceding low nine bars to the left but the stochastic has diverged and is much higher, indicating a potential turn.



The Important Bit

This is just a bit of fun so I have £0.20p per point.  My guaranteed stop would have cost me £30 if I got it wrong so I'm not in big time.

Secondly, my target is over 2,000 points higher so the screen told me my risk/reward ratio for this bet was 1:6.3.  Let's just talk risk/reward for a moment.  No-one gets all trades right so, to make money overall, your wins have to be bigger than your losses.  So, if you have a 66% win ratio, you'll get two wins for one loss.  Your risk/reward ratio has to be considerably bigger than 1:1, e.g. 1:2 would be enough, i.e. twice as much on a win than you lose if you hit the stop.

What is my target?  Well, I think the last couple of big bars (Monday and Tuesday, red, then green - see daily chart) are forming an ABC EW retracement.  If so - and the C wave doesn't stop prematurely, the market should rise above Tuesday's high (the top of the A wave).  Typically, it should go higher but, just in case it does and then goes back down again while I'm asleep tonight, I've set my target to close at 39,471.

And the best bit?  The market did move up within minutes of opening the trade and, if I'm right, won't revisit the starting position again before this move is over, so I've moved my guaranteed stop up to the open.  I'm presently £103 in profit as I write.  I cannot lose anything now but stand to gain about £250 if I'm right.

I hope this helps.  If anything is unclear, just ask.
 

3 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

This one's primarily for @Harrisfan, @Yagoda and @Cameroni but may be of interest to others.

There are trading opportunities in all markets - even volatile ones like these.

I saw an opportunity this evening so I couldn't resist.  I'll explain the rationale behind it.



Above is the 5-minute chart of the Dow.  I'll come back to this in a minute.

 

This is the daily chart for the Dow.

Rationale Explanation

There are turns (big and small) in the markets every 8 days on average.  We've just had 7 days down from the minor top on 26th March and two days of movement up since then.  I'm counting 26th March as one of my minor turns and Mondy as a turn back up again.  N.B. Sundays don't count on the futures markets - they're not a trading day.

I should hasten to point out that 8 days between turns in an average (as already stated) and can be as low as 1 day.  You have been warned.

Taking the recent bottom (I used Sunday's bottom for extra safety), I then did a Fibonacci retracement on the 1-hour chart (see below).  Most people think about 62% or 78% retracements but these are volatile markets so there are two higher numbers that I like - 88.6% and 94.1%.  If you're interested I'll explain where they were derived from but back to the plot...

You'll see that the retracement from Sunday night has just about hit the 94.1% line.  Furthermore tonight, when I was looking at it, there was an apparent move starting up which had also retraced 94.1% (see the 5-minute chart above).  I opened a buy with the stop at Sunday night.



The Important Bit

This is just a bit of fun so I have £0.20p per point.  My guaranteed stop would have cost me £30 if I got it wrong so I'm not in big time.

Secondly, my target is over 2,000 points higher so the screen told me my risk/reward ratio for this bet was 1:6.3.  Let's just talk risk/reward for a moment.  No-one gets all trades right so, to make money overall, your wins have to be bigger than your losses.  So, if you have a 66% win ratio, you'll get two wins for one loss.  Your risk/reward ratio has to be considerably bigger than 1:1, e.g. 1:2 would be enough, i.e. twice as much on a win than you lose if you hit the stop.

What is my target?  Well, I think the last couple of big bars (Monday and Tuesday, red, then green - see daily chart) are forming an ABC EW retracement.  If so - and the C wave doesn't stop prematurely, the market should rise above Tuesday's high (the top of the A wave).  Typically, it should go higher but, just in case it does and then goes back down again while I'm asleep tonight, I've set my target to close at 39,471.

And the best bit?  The market did move up and, if I'm right, won't revisit the starting position again before this move is over, so I've moved my guaranteed stop up to the open.  I'm presently £103 in profit as I write.  I cannot lose anything now but stand to gain about £250 if I'm right.

I hope this helps.
 

8 days on average is your calculation? 

 

 

18 weeks down

180 ema

 

Bounce

 

Bit of symmetry there

 

 

7 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

This one's primarily for @Harrisfan, @Yagoda and @Cameroni but may be of interest to others.

There are trading opportunities in all markets - even volatile ones like these.

I saw an opportunity this evening so I couldn't resist.  I'll explain the rationale behind it.



Above is the 5-minute chart of the Dow.  I'll come back to this in a minute.

 

This is the daily chart for the Dow.

Rationale Explanation

There are turns (big and small) in the markets every 8 days on average.  We've just had 7 days down from the minor top on 26th March and two days of movement up since then.  I'm counting 26th March as one of my minor turns and Mondy as a turn back up again.  N.B. Sundays don't count on the futures markets - they're not a trading day.

I should hasten to point out that 8 days between turns in an average (as already stated) and can be as low as 1 day.  You have been warned.

Taking the recent bottom (I used Sunday's bottom for extra safety), I then did a Fibonacci retracement on the 1-hour chart (see below).  Most people think about 62% or 78% retracements but these are volatile markets so there are two higher numbers that I like - 88.6% and 94.1%.  If you're interested I'll explain where they were derived from but back to the plot...

You'll see that the retracement from Sunday night has just about hit the 94.1% line.  Furthermore tonight, when I was looking at it, there was an apparent move starting up which had also retraced 94.1% (see the 5-minute chart above).  I opened a buy with the stop at Sunday night.

Also, the divergence in the stochastic on the 5-minute chart was very much in my favour (see below).  Reminder - a momentum indicator like the Stochastic usually goes up when the market is going up, and vice versa.  However, the last few bars on the 5-minute went almost as low as the preceding low nine bars to the left but the stochastic has diverged and is much higher, indicating a potential turn.



The Important Bit

This is just a bit of fun so I have £0.20p per point.  My guaranteed stop would have cost me £30 if I got it wrong so I'm not in big time.

Secondly, my target is over 2,000 points higher so the screen told me my risk/reward ratio for this bet was 1:6.3.  Let's just talk risk/reward for a moment.  No-one gets all trades right so, to make money overall, your wins have to be bigger than your losses.  So, if you have a 66% win ratio, you'll get two wins for one loss.  Your risk/reward ratio has to be considerably bigger than 1:1, e.g. 1:2 would be enough, i.e. twice as much on a win than you lose if you hit the stop.

What is my target?  Well, I think the last couple of big bars (Monday and Tuesday, red, then green - see daily chart) are forming an ABC EW retracement.  If so - and the C wave doesn't stop prematurely, the market should rise above Tuesday's high (the top of the A wave).  Typically, it should go higher but, just in case it does and then goes back down again while I'm asleep tonight, I've set my target to close at 39,471.

And the best bit?  The market did move up and, if I'm right, won't revisit the starting position again before this move is over, so I've moved my guaranteed stop up to the open.  I'm presently £103 in profit as I write.  I cannot lose anything now but stand to gain about £250 if I'm right.

I hope this helps.
 

Good quant analysis.👍

 

I'm more of a "value" guy.

 

There's only one flaw in your analysis.

 

You said "on average"

 

Someone who thinks other countries pay American tarrifs is nowhere near average. 😄

 

4 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

18 weeks down

180 ema

 

Bounce

 

Bit of symmetry there

 

 

I didn't mention moving averages because they are of no use whatsover with trades lasting a few hours or a few days.  Personally, I see no use for them on any trade timescale less than, oh, six months.

All markets (Forex, indicies, stocks) make minor turns ON AVERAGE every 8 days.  It's just a fact so it's not up for discussion.  I've posted the full rationale for entering this trade and it's already made enough profit to justify itself.  I offer this for educational purposes, and I have attempted to do it as soon as the trade was opened so I'm not giving an after-the-event bull<deleted> story that could be imagined.
 

As for you, I don't think you trade.  Anyone who quotes a 12-year moving average is not actively doing anything, just observing for the sake of it.  And that's OK (it's what I've been doing recently but then the stars aligned tonight and I couldn't resist it. 😉).

5 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

I didn't mention moving averages because they are of no use whatsover with trades lasting a few hours or a few days.  Personally, I see no use for them on any trade timescale less than, oh, six months.

All markets (Forex, indicies, stocks) make minor turns ON AVERAGE every 8 days.  It's just a fact so it's not up for discussion.  I've posted the full rationale for entering this trade and it's already made enough profit to justify itself.  I offer this for educational purposes, and I have attempted to do it as soon as the trade was opened so I'm not giving an after-the-event bull<deleted> story that could be imagined.
 

As for you, I don't think you trade.  Anyone who quotes a 12-year moving average is not actively doing anything, just observing for the sake of it.  And that's OK (it's what I've been doing recently but then the stars aligned tonight and I couldn't resist it. 😉).

250 pound trader isnt much. Hardly worth the effort

6 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

All markets (Forex, indicies, stocks) make minor turns ON AVERAGE every 8 days.  It's just a fact so

Where is the study on this?

On 4/8/2025 at 4:32 AM, SiSePuede419 said:

 

 

George W Bush inflated the cost of housing.

 

 

 

Really?  How did he do that?

13 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

I didn't mention moving averages because they are of no use whatsover with trades lasting a few hours or a few days.  Personally, I see no use for them on any trade timescale less than, oh, six months.

 

Well, that's a steaming pile of dog droppings.

 

Tons of traders use MACD to calculated divergence before making short term trades.

5 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Where is the study on this?

I've marked up the turns on a GBPUSD chart (from July 2023 but it could have been any chart).

In this instance, there are 9 minor turns from the top over 58 traded days, averaging 6.5 days.  Over a longer period, it would show closer to 8 but this is enough to illustrate the point.

Where's the study on this?  It's not a study - it's a proven methodology.  In fact, the bigger turns have their own averages, which is how I can be confident that a big top has just been created in the markets.  However, that's too deep for this conversation but be my guest and search the internet.
 

17 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

I would have gotten rich from buying a house during a nationwide real estate crash?

 

 

 

 

Yes, look at the trend. 

2 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Well, that's a steaming pile of dog droppings.

 

Tons of traders use MACD to calculated divergence before making short term trades.

I wouldn't enter a trade that didn't have a risk/reward ratio of at least 1:3 and I think you'd be hard-pressed to do that with MA's.  But if it works for you, that's fine.
 

3 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

I wouldn't enter a trade that didn't have a risk/reward ratio of at least 1:3 and I think you'd be hard-pressed to do that with MA's.  But if it works for you, that's fine.
 

A 5 ema and 20 ema crossover presents plenty of trades. Big short on the Dow for example

23 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

250 pound trader isnt much. Hardly worth the effort

1.  It's all relative.  I risked £30 to make £250.  If I had risked £300 - and my bet succeeds - it would return £2,500.  This one is for fun and, as stated, I now lose nothing however it goes.

2.  Success is measured in small steps in trading.  Sure, you could go all-out for the big one but you are then likely to crash and burn, just like the majority of retail traders.

3. I earn more in retirement each month than I did in my well-paid full-time job in IT before I retired.  That's good pensions and good investments for you.  Furthermore, the investments are rock solid so this happy situation will remain for decades, until I die.  I'm not unhappy with my lot in life.
 

2 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

A 5 ema and 20 ema crossover presents plenty of trades. Big short on the Dow for example

Do it, and show us the charts. 🙂

1 minute ago, IsaanT said:

Do it, and show us the charts. 🙂

Put them on your charts and see.

6 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Put them on your charts and see.

You appear to have a very short memory span.  I also feel you have little self-awareness to gauge how you are coming across here...

I've explained that I wouldn't use MA's for trading so I have no interest in pursuing your theories.  You apparently would use them, and that's fine if it's your money at stake.  I'm just asking you to show that it works or, if not, realise that you appear to say a lot of ridiculous things that would never work in the real world.

If nothing else (and I won't ask you to publish your findings if they make uncomfortable reading) calculate the risk/reward ratio of any of these potential trades.  Risk is where you would place your stoploss in case the trade doesn't work, and reward is your stated target at the outset of the trade.  Then decide how long your trading pot would last if you had a 66% success ratio (which is good in this game, believe me).
 

5 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

For those that don't know, hindsight is a wonderful thing but we can't trade past movements...

What is the trade opportunity on this chart right now, i.e. from the last bar on the right?  Where would your stop go and what is your target?