China warns ,don’t appease trump

placeholder · 2025-04-23T01:00:43Z

Just now, Cameroni said:

Obviously these comprehensive and highly complex trade deals take a lot of time to complete. It would be silly to impose an unrealistic time limit for such a complex process.

There is no time pressure from Trump's side after all, the money from tariffs comes pouring in until the deals are done. So why would Trump be concerned about the timeline? His concern are the terms.

Japan and India are very reliable allies anyway, of course they will be given plenty of time.

Yes, China know they are big trouble. Why do you think they're so shy to negotiate? Because they know they will be made to suffer. Why do you think they're nervously threatening other nations that they will be punished if the make deals with the US that affect them negatively? Because they know things are not going their way. Poor China, she is so screwed.

You sure about the future of those tariffs?

"Yes, China know they are big trouble. Why do you think they're so shy to negotiate? Because they know they will be made to suffer."

So, if China agrees to negotiate, that's because they know they've got the upper hand?" What's the weather like today in Oppositeworld?

Cameroni · 2025-04-23T01:16:37Z

12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You sure about the future of those tariffs?

"Yes, China know they are big trouble. Why do you think they're so shy to negotiate? Because they know they will be made to suffer."

So, if China agrees to negotiate, that's because they know they've got the upper hand?" What's the weather like today in Oppositeworld?

What's good for the goose is not good for the gander. You have to look at the real situation on the ground. China of course will negotiate because they know they will just be hurt economically far more if they don't. Because America can hurt them, since China exports a lot more to the US than the other way around.

But China is clearly in a position of weakness.

The US however is clearly in a position of strength. They too will negotiate because while they can hurt China more, tariffs also impose some pain on the US. By far not as much pain as the tariffs impose on China, but of course the US doesn't really want tariffs in all perpetuity. They're a strong defense measure. Thatt's all. And clearly working at the moment.

placeholder · 2025-04-23T01:22:58Z

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

What's good for the goose is not good for the gander. You have to look at the real situation on the ground. China of course will negotiate because they know they will just be hurt economically far more if they don't. Because America can hurt them, since China exports a lot more to the US than the other way around.

But China is clearly in a position of weakness.

The US however is clearly in a position of strength. They too will negotiate because while they can hurt China more, tariffs also impose some pain on the US. By far not as much pain as the tariffs impose on China, but of course the US doesn't really want tariffs in all perpetuity. They're a strong defense measure. Thatt's all. And clearly working at the moment.

So, according to you, anything that China does is a proof of weakness? As you repeatedly ignore, among other things, China provides many crucial inputs to manufactured goods. You still seem to be clinging to the belief that the buyer has the advantage. But that only works if there are multiple sellers with enough goods to supply demand. Given China's predominance in manufacturing, without them, those goods won't be available either at all or in sufficient quantity.

Funny, you cited Indonesia as one of the countries that had imposed big tariffs on China. What you didn't note was that an earlier much bigger blanket embargo on Chinese goods had to be rescinded because manufacturers couldn't produce goods without those inputs from China.

A huge industrial ecosystem has been developed in China. It can't be replaced easily. What happens when manufacturers start coming up against it?

CallumWK · 2025-04-23T01:26:58Z

21 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

There is no time pressure from Trump's side after all, the money from tariffs comes pouring in until the deals are done.

You mean the money of the tariffs that were canceled shortly after they were announced, and of which Trump lies of course?

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2025/apr/10/donald-trump/fact-check-trump-said-tariffs-collections-are-almo/

Fact-check: Trump said tariffs collections are ‘almost $2 billion a day.’ Trade experts are doubtful

At an April 8 executive order signing, Trump said, "We’re taking in almost $2 billion a day in tariffs. Two billion a day."

The U.S. Treasury’s April 8 daily statement contradicts that: It showed $192 million in revenues for custom duties and certain excise taxes.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/fact-check-donald-trump-tariffs-revenue

Fact check: are US tariffs really bringing in $2bn a day as Trump claims?

Figures from the US Treasury department show “customs and certain excise taxes” have, on average, totalled about $200m a day so far this month. For the entire month of February, $7.25bn was raised. About $75bn in customs duties and excise taxes have been raised in the roughly six months since the US financial year began on 1 October, significantly short of the $700bn annual figure Trump is alluding to.

To get to that tenfold increase overnight, one possibility is that Trump has used some hypothetical maths.

Cameroni · 2025-04-23T01:31:45Z

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

So, according to you, anything that China does is a proof of weakness? As you repeatedly ignore, among other things, China provides many crucial inputs to manufactured goods. You still seem to be clinging to the belief that the buyer has the advantage. But that only works if there are multiple sellers with enough goods to supply demand. Given China's predominance in manufacturing, without them, those goods won't be available either at all or in sufficient quantity.

Funny, you cited Indonesia as one of the countries that had imposed big tariffs on China. What you didn't note was that an earlier much bigger blanket embargo on Chinese goods had to be rescinded because manufacturers couldn't produce goods without those inputs from China.

A huge industrial ecosystem has been developed in China. It can't be replaced easily. What happens when manufacturers start coming up against it?

China is in a position of weakness because 3.4 trillion USD of China's GDP depend on exports. This is after the Chinese took steps to reduce the dependence on exports from 35% to 20%..

Yes, China manufactures a lot, but of course that has become its very achilles heel. Domestically, witness the stupid overproduction of housing, and internationally, witness Chinese dumping practices and its alienation of its trade partners due to said ruthless dumping practices, brought about by China's manufacturing overproduction.

There are multiple sellers of course, for the vast majority of items China supplies. Only few items would present real problems for alternative sourcing, but even here the US can help itself, for instance by recycling rare earths.

Indonesia is not the US of course, it does not have the resources, financial or technological, the US has. Whilst indeed there is some reliance on Chinese products in some areas, this can be changed. But can China find an alternative 400 billion USD export market? Much more difficult to get rid of China's overproduction. So again, you see, its very success in overproduction has become its weakness.

Cameroni · 2025-04-23T01:34:02Z

6 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

For the entire month of February, $7.25bn

7.25 bn dollars per month? That Trump sure knows how to make money out of nothing. Amazing.

placeholder · 2025-04-23T01:37:45Z

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

There are multiple sellers of course, for the vast majority of items China supplies. Only few items would present real problems for alternative sourcing, but even here the US can help itself, for instance by recycling rare earths.

This is just B,S. If that were the case, then China's preponderance in manufacturing wouldn't be a threat at all. In fact, it wouldn't enjoy that preponderance.

Here's what Chatgpt says:

Do Chinese manufacturers provide crucial inputs that aren't available from other countries to foreign manufacturers

ChatGPT said:

Yes, Chinese manufacturers do provide crucial inputs that can be difficult or, in some cases, impossible to source elsewhere at the same scale, cost, or quality. Here's a breakdown of why and in what areas this is especially true:

🔧 1. Rare Earth Elements (REEs)

China controls 60–70% of global production of rare earths, which are essential for:
- Electronics
- EV batteries
- Wind turbines
- Military tech
While other countries have reserves, China dominates processing capacity, which is a key bottleneck.

🏭 2. Advanced Manufacturing Components

China is a global leader in:
- Precision machinery parts
- Printed circuit boards (PCBs)
- Solar panel components
- Lithium-ion battery cells
These components are often produced at a scale and price point unmatched elsewhere.

🧪 3. Chemical Intermediates

China is a massive exporter of chemical precursors, especially:
- Pharmaceutical active ingredients (APIs)
- Textile dyes and treatments
- Electronics-grade chemicals
Many foreign firms rely on Chinese inputs for further manufacturing.

⚙️ 4. Tooling and Molds

Custom tooling (e.g., injection molds, die casts) from China is:
- High-quality
- Fast turnaround
- Significantly cheaper
These are foundational to producing parts globally.

📦 5. Integrated Supply Chains

China's manufacturing hubs are incredibly dense and interlinked. This allows for:
- Fast iteration
- Customization
- Easy scaling
This network effect is hard to replicate in newer manufacturing countries.

🌍 Can other countries replace China?

Some reshoring and "China +1" strategies (e.g., Vietnam, India, Mexico) are helping diversify supply chains.
But for many specialized, high-volume, or low-cost components, China remains indispensable—at least for now.

CallumWK · 2025-04-23T01:40:51Z

4 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

7.25 bn dollars per month? That Trump sure knows how to make money out of nothing. Amazing.

Maybe you should keep your trolling to your fictitious thread about the hookers you claim to knock, because the 7.25bn dollars is hardly an increase of the average revenue in previous years

placeholder · 2025-04-23T01:45:59Z

11 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

7.25 bn dollars per month? That Trump sure knows how to make money out of nothing. Amazing.

It's a tax hike. And like a sales tax, it's harms fall disproportionately on people with lower incomes.

Cameroni · 2025-04-23T01:54:05Z

11 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Yes, Chinese manufacturers do provide crucial inputs that can be difficult or, in some cases, impossible to source elsewhere at the same scale, cost,

Lol, naturally the cost will be different. But of course almost all items can be sourced elsewhere.

12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

China controls 60–70% of global production of rare earths

So 40% of global production can be had, so plenty for the US, especially considering the US will recycle rare earths.

13 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Precision machinery parts

Printed circuit boards (PCBs)

Solar panel components

Lithium-ion battery cells

Looks like Germany and Japan will be getting a lot more business in the future, both reliable suppliers of precision mahcinery parts. Germany of course is also huge in solar panel production, Japan in lithium ion battery cells.

14 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Pharmaceutical active ingredients (APIs)

Textile dyes and treatments

Electronics-grade chemicals

Again looks like BASF of Germany and possible some British companies can provide these instead.

15 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Custom tooling (e.g., injection molds, die casts) from China is:

High-quality

Fast turnaround

Significantly cheaper

So just cheaper, but can be obtained from many places. Okay then.

placeholder · 2025-04-23T01:57:58Z

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

Lol, naturally the cost will be different. But of course almost all items can be sourced elsewhere.

So 40% of global production can be had, so plenty for the US, especially considering the US will recycle rare earths.

Looks like Germany and Japan will be getting a lot more business in the future, both reliable suppliers of precision mahcinery parts. Germany of course is also huge in solar panel production, Japan in lithium ion battery cells.

Again looks like BASF of Germany and possible some British companies can provide these instead.

So just cheaper, but can be obtained from many places. Okay then.

Stop making things up. That's not what was said. 40% doesn't mean that it's evenly distributed. You should consult the idea of comparative advantage. First offered by David Ricardo about 2 centuries ago, little has happened since that warrants its refutation.

Walker88 · 2025-04-23T01:59:19Z

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

This is just B,S. If that were the case, then China's preponderance in manufacturing wouldn't be a threat at all. In fact, it wouldn't enjoy that preponderance.

Here's what Chatgpt says:

Do Chinese manufacturers provide crucial inputs that aren't available from other countries to foreign manufacturers

ChatGPT said:

Yes, Chinese manufacturers do provide crucial inputs that can be difficult or, in some cases, impossible to source elsewhere at the same scale, cost, or quality. Here's a breakdown of why and in what areas this is especially true:

🔧 1. Rare Earth Elements (REEs)

China controls 60–70% of global production of rare earths, which are essential for:

Electronics

EV batteries

Wind turbines

Military tech

While other countries have reserves, China dominates processing capacity, which is a key bottleneck.

🏭 2. Advanced Manufacturing Components

China is a global leader in:

Precision machinery parts

Printed circuit boards (PCBs)

Solar panel components

Lithium-ion battery cells

These components are often produced at a scale and price point unmatched elsewhere.

🧪 3. Chemical Intermediates

China is a massive exporter of chemical precursors, especially:

Pharmaceutical active ingredients (APIs)

Textile dyes and treatments

Electronics-grade chemicals

Many foreign firms rely on Chinese inputs for further manufacturing.

⚙️ 4. Tooling and Molds

Custom tooling (e.g., injection molds, die casts) from China is:

High-quality

Fast turnaround

Significantly cheaper

These are foundational to producing parts globally.

📦 5. Integrated Supply Chains

China's manufacturing hubs are incredibly dense and interlinked. This allows for:

Fast iteration

Customization

Easy scaling

This network effect is hard to replicate in newer manufacturing countries.

🌍 Can other countries replace China?

Some reshoring and "China +1" strategies (e.g., Vietnam, India, Mexico) are helping diversify supply chains.

But for many specialized, high-volume, or low-cost components, China remains indispensable—at least for now.

BOOM!

I could be wrong, and perhaps I'll have to ask ChatGPT, Grok, etc., but I can't help get the feeling that China actually has a plan, rather than a "concept of a plan".

Again, maybe I'm wrong, but the long term plan they put into action many years ago suggests mental capability at least a little bit beyond "Man Woman Person Camera TV", impressive as the latter is.

In another time and place, an Administration might have had a staff who would have pointed out to the President the things you noted, and advised a little more wisely on how to go about trade discussions. That doesn't exist today in Flipflopistan.

Though this is both sacrilege and blasphemy, I think the current POTUS may not be the greatest dealmaker ever. Some people might even be saying he's a "total loser" (though no doubt saying that should be illegal and get blonde Bondi on it.

Now if I'm in a generous mood, maybe POTUS is really trying to be The Great Uniter with his rash of economic proposals, making all Americans equal. Yes, in that paradise known as MAGAstan, soon we'll all be joining those Haitians in Ohio, eating the cats and dogs.

Pass the ketchup, please.

Walker88 · 2025-04-23T02:01:27Z

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Stop making things up. That's not what was said. 40% doesn't mean that it's evenly distributed. You should consult the idea of comparative advantage. First offered by David Ricardo about 2 centuries ago, little has happened since that warrants its refutation.

David Ricardo?

Wasn't he one of Luci and Desi's kids in that 50s sitcom? I think that's what MAGA-GPT told me when I asked.

jas007 · 2025-04-23T02:06:53Z

Just a quick story for those regurgitating mainstream propaganda instead of making sensible conclusions from reality:

https://apnews.com/article/tariffs-trade-taxes-trump-china-bessent-treasury-66668fa26957ece530a250fa8ea19faa

And before long, we'll all see another news story about how Trump and Xi are in negotiations. Neither side can afford this nonsense, and so it won't go one too much longer.

Walker88 · 2025-04-23T02:08:17Z

28 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

7.25 bn dollars per month? That Trump sure knows how to make money out of nothing. Amazing.

Actually, he's most skilled at making nothing out of something, such as his dad's co-signed loans and massive inheritance.

He certainly didn't do Atlantic City nor the Plaza Hotel any favors.

Also, in 2017 he took a growing economy and 4.8% unemployment and left Biden a Recession and 6.8% UE. In Part II, he took the best economy since the late 1990s and a stock market at an all time high and has sent the market and dollar reeling and---soon to be announced over the next few months---both slowed the economy and rocked unemployment.

That's a lot of nothing out of a pile of really good somethings.

scorecard · 2025-04-23T02:12:15Z

On 4/21/2025 at 4:28 PM, SunnyinBangrak said:

And what a surprise (not). As factories fall silent with cargo ships stuck in port China panics and starts wigging out.

Funny how leftists have such love for China and such hatred for the USA. China is right bla bla. China could easily have wiped out mankind with their lableaks and not allowing investigations, and still the forum left take their side when the US makes sincere efforts to balance the defecit. Quite sickening.

Your continuous comments about leftists are what sickens me.

But to start let's get it clear; what do you mean by leftists?

Walker88 · 2025-04-23T02:16:10Z

4 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Just a quick story for those regurgitating mainstream propaganda instead of making sensible conclusions from reality:

https://apnews.com/article/tariffs-trade-taxes-trump-china-bessent-treasury-66668fa26957ece530a250fa8ea19faa

And before long, we'll all see another news story about how Trump and Xi are in negotiations. Neither side can afford this nonsense, and so it won't go one too much longer.

The Flip-flopper-in-Chief is going to do what he does best: cave.

Just as auto makers got to him and made him pull back on across the board tariffs, and fund managers and insurance companies got him to declare a 90 day pause to halt the stock market rout, and banks got him to keep his "total loser" Fed Chief, US companies that need input from China (such as anyone who requires rare earths or Big Pharma companies that require ingredients) will get him to cave yet again.

With China, POTUS is holding a hand of 7 high in various suits, while China is pulling to a straight flush.

Walker88 · 2025-04-23T02:21:02Z

5 minutes ago, scorecard said:

Your continuous comments about leftists are what sickens me.

But to start let's get it clear; what do you mean by leftists?

Parsing all of his comments, I think he means Americans who love the US Constitution, especially the 1st Amendment and the Amendments that guarantee due process are "leftists".

I note none of the MAGAs here, who supposedly are such lovers of America, ever chose to go into harm's way for the country they supposedly love. OTOH, many of us who are "leftists" or who dislike the current POTUS, chose to do so.

I think bone spurs and parasitism are hallmarks of MAGAs.

Walker88 · 2025-04-23T02:23:26Z

13 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Actually, he's most skilled at making nothing out of something, such as his dad's co-signed loans and massive inheritance.

He certainly didn't do Atlantic City nor the Plaza Hotel any favors.

Also, in 2017 he took a growing economy and 4.8% unemployment and left Biden a Recession and 6.8% UE. In Part II, he took the best economy since the late 1990s and a stock market at an all time high and has sent the market and dollar reeling and---soon to be announced over the next few months---both slowed the economy and rocked unemployment.

That's a lot of nothing out of a pile of really good somethings.

Before any MAGAs step in and say "Covid" re the deterioration of the economy under POTUS45, let me ask: why is the price of eggs resulting from bid flu Biden's fault?

jas007 · 2025-04-23T02:45:53Z

21 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Parsing all of his comments, I think he means Americans who love the US Constitution, especially the 1st Amendment and the Amendments that guarantee due process are "leftists".

I note none of the MAGAs here, who supposedly are such lovers of America, ever chose to go into harm's way for the country they supposedly love. OTOH, many of us who are "leftists" or who dislike the current POTUS, chose to do so.

I think bone spurs and parasitism are hallmarks of MAGAs.

I'm sure I can't be the only veteran here (Vietnam era)) who thinks the current crop of leftists are nuts. Not that I'm a MAGA, necessarily, but I do think Trump was the only real choice in the last election. Harris would have been a disaster.

SunnyinBangrak · 2025-04-23T03:03:32Z

45 minutes ago, scorecard said:

Your continuous comments about leftists are what sickens me.

But to start let's get it clear; what do you mean by leftists?

People consumed by irrational hatred of DJT due to being had by all the hoaxes. You could also call them laptop deniers. They are incapable of thinking for themselves. When their media tells them hulking great dudes are female olympian boxing champs they go allin on the ridiculous narrative. Every. Single. Time. Call them Biden bros, call them democrats, call them the liberal hivemind. Call them leftists. It's all the same.

If you were here calling those on the factual side of issues as "cultists" while being totally misinformed/wrong and abrasively so, them Im talking about you.

CallumWK · 2025-04-23T03:08:53Z

21 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Not that I'm a MAGA, necessarily

Strange that all those hardcore maga members on this forum now try to get rid of the image.

Maybe they start to feel something?

jas007 · 2025-04-23T03:17:38Z

4 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Strange that all those hardcore maga members on this forum now try to get rid of the image.

Maybe they start to feel something?

I think if you go back and read some of my posts, you'll see that I'm not a "hardcore MAGA member." If thinking Harris would have been a disaster as President makes me hardcore MAGA, then that's silly. Call me a realist who makes some effort to think for myself and question authority. I may not get everything right all the time, but at least I try. I'm smart enough to know propaganda when I see it, and I'm smart enough to know crazy when I see it. And I absolutely believe in free speech.

CallumWK · 2025-04-23T03:34:15Z

16 minutes ago, jas007 said:

And I absolutely believe in free speech.

Free speech like this??????

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/30/trump-crackdown-free-speech

His administration has directed investigators at Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice), who would typically target human traffickers and drug smugglers, to track down students who may have shown sympathy for the Palestinian cause in social media posts. His secretary of state has deployed an obscure statute to detain PhD candidates and researchers. Openly flouting bedrock principles of free speech in the US, his administration has thrown the weight of its executive power into crushing political dissent.

sharot724 · 2025-04-23T04:41:04Z

lay down, lay down. caving everytime is all he has

sharot724 · 2025-04-23T04:44:29Z

1 hour ago, jas007 said:

I'm sure I can't be the only veteran here (Vietnam era)) who thinks the current crop of leftists are nuts. Not that I'm a MAGA, necessarily, but I do think Trump was the only real choice in the last election. Harris would have been a disaster.

Third MAGA to deny they are supporters. This is weak stuff but expected.

Maybe post thier recent disclaimers LOL Start a fan club even

scorecard · 2025-04-23T06:19:38Z

2 hours ago, CallumWK said:

Free speech like this??????

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/30/trump-crackdown-free-speech

His administration has directed investigators at Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice), who would typically target human traffickers and drug smugglers, to track down students who may have shown sympathy for the Palestinian cause in social media posts. His secretary of state has deployed an obscure statute to detain PhD candidates and researchers. Openly flouting bedrock principles of free speech in the US, his administration has thrown the weight of its executive power into crushing political dissent.

Quote: '...to track down students who may have shown sympathy for the Palestinian cause in social media posts.'

Surely this is outrageous. Many Palestinians are not specifically HAMAS and surely they have every right to be respected and not be seen as undesirable in any form.

Whatever happened to the strongly supported 2 states approach, 1 of them being Palestine (not meaning HAMAS)?

I have taught many Palestinian international students in respected universities in the Sth of Thailand.

Yes 99-100% are Muslim but none have ever made any mention of their faith / their prayer practices etc.

All have been pleasant young people well behaved, cooperative with their uni, their lecturers and each other, polite and excellent high performing students.

jas007 · 2025-04-23T07:09:11Z

3 hours ago, CallumWK said:

Free speech like this??????

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/30/trump-crackdown-free-speech

His administration has directed investigators at Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice), who would typically target human traffickers and drug smugglers, to track down students who may have shown sympathy for the Palestinian cause in social media posts. His secretary of state has deployed an obscure statute to detain PhD candidates and researchers. Openly flouting bedrock principles of free speech in the US, his administration has thrown the weight of its executive power into crushing political dissent.

I don't know the particulars, but surely these people have 1st amendment rights. Have they incited any violence? Anything that would cross the line into terrorism or criminal activity?

I'm old enough to remember the Weather Underground, the SDS, and the "Chicago 8" trials stemming from the 1968 Democratic National Convention and the "Days of Rage." I think everybody in the world saw the cops Mayor Daley sent into the street to crack heads. The Democrats weren't going to put up with any of it.

The leaders of the group eventually went on trial and were convicted, but all the convictions were eventually overturned by the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals. During trial, one of the issues was free speech. In any event, those people went from speaking and rallies to eventually declaring "war" on the US in 1970 and later engaging in bombings and the like.

In any event, there's probably a lesson there for everyone. Speak all you want, but somewhere there's a line and you're going to end up in trouble.

As for the "obscure statute" you reference above? If that's the Alien Exclusion Act or whatever it's called, I guess we all get to find out what the Supreme Court thinks sometime soon.

jas007 · 2025-04-23T07:16:16Z

2 hours ago, sharot724 said:

Third MAGA to deny they are supporters. This is weak stuff but expected.

Maybe post thier recent disclaimers LOL Start a fan club even

For what it's worth, I didn't vote for anyone. I do believe in free speech, though, and I'm capable of thinking for myself. I guess in your mind, that makes me MAGA? LOL

From what I can tell, some of you people have been brainwashed so badly you don't know up from down. All you know is how to parrot what you read in the mainstream propaganda outlets.

Walker88 · 2025-04-23T08:16:20Z

He just caved on China. Yesterday he caved on Jerome Powell.

Now 184 targets of tariffs know he's weak and willing to forget it.

EVERYBODY---even that uninhabited island---will be playing the clown like a fiddle.

To use one of his own favorite epithets, he's a total loser.

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Fact-check: Trump said tariffs collections are ‘almost $2 billion a day.’ Trade experts are doubtful