Will the baht continue to get stronger?

[spidermike007]

Though there are so many different factors at play here one has to wonder why the Thai baht continues to strengthen at a time when there are so many economic headwinds, and so many difficulties locally within the Thai economy. While a strong baht lowers costs for importers, it presents significant challenges for exporters and those earning income in foreign currencies. This comes at a time when Thailand’s economic fundamentals remain weak and lack strong growth momentum.

 

Granted the SGP (stable genius policies) in the US are likely giving a lift to the baht, as there does seem to be a an exodus from dollar denominated Investments and from the dollar in general, especially at the bond level.

 

There has been some speculation that the current strength of the baht is somehow tied into the price of gold. Does anybody understand the fundamentals behind that? Any predictions where this will go over the next year or two? 

[Mavideol]

we still have to wait until all the hi-so complete their overseas investments, then ???? you guess it's as good as mine but quite sure Thai exporters are suffering

[Yellowtail]

It the Baht just back where it was against the dollar six months ago? 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

I think Thailand's government debt to GDP ratio is much lower than both the EU and the US. 

[Yellowtail]

[pomchop]

I would say with current on again off again tariffs and restructuring of who are reliable trading partners and can be trusted that it is impossible to predict.

 

Every day  now as I watch stock markets i remember allan Greenspan decades ago as fed chairman calling the super high stock markets as being fueled by "irrational exuberance".. ...seems to me lot of that going on right now.

[blaze master]

37 minutes ago, pomchop said:

I would say with current on again off again tariffs and restructuring of who are reliable trading partners and can be trusted that it is impossible to predict.

 

Every day  now as I watch stock markets i remember allan Greenspan decades ago as fed chairman calling the super high stock markets as being fueled by "irrational exuberance".. ...seems to me lot of that going on right now.

 

Is that the same Greenspan that was in charge for the 2008 financial crisis ?

 

[georgegeorgia]

11 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Though there are so many different factors at play here one has to wonder why the Thai baht continues to strengthen at a time when there are so many economic headwinds, and so many difficulties locally within the Thai economy. While a strong baht lowers costs for importers, it presents significant challenges for exporters and those earning income in foreign currencies. This comes at a time when Thailand’s economic fundamentals remain weak and lack strong growth momentum.

 

Granted the SGP (stable genius policies) in the US are likely giving a lift to the baht, as there does seem to be a an exodus from dollar denominated Investments and from the dollar in general, especially at the bond level.

 

There has been some speculation that the current strength of the baht is somehow tied into the price of gold. Does anybody understand the fundamentals behind that? Any predictions where this will go over the next year or two? 

Im really taking the judicious approach 

[georgegeorgia]

2 hours ago, pomchop said:

I would say with current on again off again tariffs and restructuring of who are reliable trading partners and can be trusted that it is impossible to predict.

 

Every day  now as I watch stock markets i remember allan Greenspan decades ago as fed chairman calling the super high stock markets as being fueled by "irrational exuberance".. ...seems to me lot of that going on right now.

As opposed to , but your certainly correct ,there is a lot going on especially in regard to Transphobia but please don't get off topic 

[jrmaanda]

The Baht hasn't really strengthened. Thai news always presents currency fluctuations in this absurd way, as if it's all down to the baht and not other currencies. What has really happened is that the dollar has fallen against most currencies for obvious reasons. Try looking at the THB/EUR rate: not much change.

[mogandave]

And when the dollar is weak, those that do not support the current administration will howl it’s the end of the world, and those that support the current administration will howl about the benefits. 

 

When the dollar is strong, they’ll trade places. 

 

There are good things about both a weak and strong dollar, and bad things about both. 

 

I am a strong dollar guy, and all I have to do to strengthen it, is transfer money to Thailand and wait a few days….

[Cameroni]

On 6/3/2025 at 12:29 PM, spidermike007 said:

Though there are so many different factors at play here one has to wonder why the Thai baht continues to strengthen at a time when there are so many economic headwinds, and so many difficulties locally within the Thai economy. While a strong baht lowers costs for importers, it presents significant challenges for exporters and those earning income in foreign currencies. This comes at a time when Thailand’s economic fundamentals remain weak and lack strong growth momentum.

 

Granted the SGP (stable genius policies) in the US are likely giving a lift to the baht, as there does seem to be a an exodus from dollar denominated Investments and from the dollar in general, especially at the bond level.

 

There has been some speculation that the current strength of the baht is somehow tied into the price of gold. Does anybody understand the fundamentals behind that? Any predictions where this will go over the next year or two? 

 

I am afraid it will. Because the US government is on a clear mission to devalue the dollar. That can only mean that the Thai baht will go up further, as the dollar will continue to fall.

 

Quote

There has been some speculation that the current strength of the baht is somehow tied into the price of gold. Does anybody understand the fundamentals behind that? Any predictions where this will go over the next year or two? 

 

That's not the case, gold is not tied to the Baht in any way. It's just gold goes up when the dollar goes down, same as the Baht. It is the US dollar that determines if the Baht goes up or down.

 

The fundamentals that matter are therefore the US economy fundamentals. Here it is key that Trump is trying to devalue to the dollar. Lower dollar equals higher Baht.

[1FinickyOne]

I have no expertise in this in any way - but, I think this question could have been asked any time within the last 15-20 years. The baht always seems stronger than I think it should be... 

 

I felt better when the dollar was 40+ but I don't think we will see that anytime soon... 

[sharot724]

Last time Trump Presidency weakened the USD last time here. Expected this again , so not a surprise and it is mininal

[J Branche]

Can anyone say Currency Manipulation? Some sources claim it is tied more to Gold.  China has 10X the Gold Reserves and currency is down 10% against the Baht. USD 10.3%  Yuan is up 3% against the Vietnamese currency I will not name :)  Yuan only down 1.3 against Cambodian Riel.

 

If it were me I would raise Tariffs on Thailand until they reduce the Tariffs on US imports. 41.1% (3588 Baht) after subtracting the UPS fee for my $255 approx 8320 baht order. That is one arriving Today 6/6/25

 

If I were in control I would say unless we get fair deal like China then we will continue to penalize Thailand Imports with the same rate as US goods are charged for its abusive and excessive Tariffs/Duties/Import Fees/VAT on imported US goods.

 

Sorry for Venting.  I see the Baht as pretty much bottomed maybe 1% or 2% down from current level but between 32.50 and 32.80 against USD for the next month.  As for any further ahead will have to wait for news, policies, and economic forecast.

[jas007]

I don't think anyone really knows how it will fluctuate, short term. Anything can happen.  But I also think the trading range might be 29 or so to 38, over the next few years. That seems fairly typical. 

[jas007]

Charted against the SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) over the last month, the technical indicators suggest the Thai Baht is a buy. 

[ericbj]

2 hours ago, mogandave said:

I am a strong dollar guy, and all I have to do to strengthen it, is transfer money to Thailand and wait a few days….

If you transfer dollars to baht when the dollar is weak, then transfer it back when the dollar is strong, you will be losing.

But in any case, while things will fluctuate a bit, it seems the dollar will continue downwards for more than a few days, because of increasing loss of global reserve status.

[Blueman1]

1 hour ago, 1FinickyOne said:

I have no expertise in this in any way - but, I think this question could have been asked any time within the last 15-20 years. The baht always seems stronger than I think it should be... 

 

I felt better when the dollar was 40+ but I don't think we will see that anytime soon... 

 

1 hour ago, 1FinickyOne said:

I have no expertise in this in any way - but, I think this question could have been asked any time within the last 15-20 years. The baht always seems stronger than I think it should be... 

 

I felt better when the dollar was 40+ but I don't think we will see that anytime soon... 

I felt better when the dollar was 40+ but I don't think we will see that anytime soon... I'd Say YOU Are 100% Correct there M8 !!

[harryviking]

Stronger? After Thailand reduced rates, the Baht is weaker. My currency went up 7 percent!!

[thaibreaker]

4 hours ago, jrmaanda said:

The Baht hasn't really strengthened. Thai news always presents currency fluctuations in this absurd way, as if it's all down to the baht and not other currencies. What has really happened is that the dollar has fallen against most currencies for obvious reasons. Try looking at the THB/EUR rate: not much change.

100 % true. The Baht has even weakened a lot against for instance Norwegian and Swedish Kroner. Those two valutas alone have strengthened around 15 percent to the USD the last few months, and 7-8 percent against Baht.

 

It's the Trump policy that has weakened the Dollar, and it is expected to continue doing so. It was 11.50 Norwegian Kroner agains the USD a short while ago, now it's around 10.05, and is expected to plummet even more, to somewhere at the 9 kroner mark.

 

Thai Baht was 3.02 / 3.05 compared to Norwegian and Swedish Kroner a few months back. Now it's 3.23 / 3.26. Baht has lost to several valutas the last months, because they pretty much adjust their valuta to the USD.

[Stevemercer]

I think it all boils down to Thailand being the lucky country and the Thai leadership being ambivelant about a high Baht.

 

I can only compare it with the Australian dollar which is at record lows against the Baht. Both Thailand and Australia are export dominanted, but the baht seems to rise and fall side-by-side with the US dollar.

 

The AUS just slides against both currencies because Australia is seen as trade dependent on China. So as the Chinese economy slows because of US tarrifs the AUS is sold off. This is despite the actual reality that Chinese importers are substituting American agricultural goods with Australia goods and China is buying and selling more with Australia than ever before.

 

Contrast this with Thailand which is out of favour with the US at the moment and unlikely to do a tarrif deal. So Thai exports will continue to take a beating, but the Baht will appreciate against other currencies.

 

What is the difference. The main one seems to be that the Australian government will always talk down the Aussie dollar (to boost exports and drive down living standards without having to take responsibility) and the Thai government will alway talk up the Baht because, deep down, they think that must be a good thing.

[mogandave]

2 hours ago, ericbj said:

If you transfer dollars to baht when the dollar is weak, then transfer it back when the dollar is strong, you will be losing.

But in any case, while things will fluctuate a bit, it seems the dollar will continue downwards for more than a few days, because of increasing loss of global reserve status.

I was joking. The dollar always seems to go up after I change to Baht.

[IsaanT]

Today's GBP/THB forecast (please be aware that forecasts are just that - tomorrow's forecast could be different):

[IsaanT]

... and for our American compatriots (please be aware that forecasts are just that - tomorrow's forecast could be different):

[Yellowtail]

39 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

... and for our American compatriots (please be aware that forecasts are just that - tomorrow's forecast could be different):

Do you have one of these from five years ago? 

[jas007]

21 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Do you have one of these from five years ago? 

Sort of a useless endeavor, going forward, for sure, at least in today's world.   It's easy enough to make a forecast based on past performance over a specified period, but all sorts of things can happen that no one has anticipated. Black Swan events.   

[Yellowtail]

9 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Sort of a useless endeavor, going forward, for sure, at least in today's world.   It's easy enough to make a forecast based on past performance over a specified period, but all sorts of things can happen that no one has anticipated. Black Swan events.   

I don't care about past performance when looking at a five-year-old forecast, I'm looking at the forecaster. 

 

10% in six months is pretty good, yet they give the information away.

 

If I could consistently make 10% in six months, I'd have retired at 25, and I would be flying private. 

[jas007]

6 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I don't care about past performance when looking at a five-year-old forecast, I'm looking at the forecaster. 

 

10% in six months is pretty good, yet they give the information away.

 

If I could consistently make 10% in six months, I'd have retired at 25, and I would be flying private. 

From what I can tell, the current implied volatility over a six month period is around 8%.  I don't ever fool around with trading currencies or commodities, but I'm sure good traders can make 10% every six months if they can play by rules and keep their emotions in check. That's the hard part.   

 

It might be fun to set up a trading BOT, give it some strict rules, give it some money, and see what happens.  

 

 

 

 

[Isaan sailor]

The strong Baht gives me pause.  No big projects or purchases now.  Will ride it out till this tariff nonsense ends.  After that, if the Baht rises further—BoT should devalue the Baht.  And if they don’t—well, there’s always Vietnam and the hope they introduce a better visa program.